Ravens vs. Chiefs Odds & Betting Predictions - September 6, 2024

LIVE

(NOT LIVE, game hasnt started) 4 TDs vs man (96 routes), 0 vs zone (215 routes) KC top 5 in man coverage rate last year Projecting about +725 as fair

@RambleNow

Tailing big Royal and Money

Patrick Mahomes is 4-1 vs Lamar Jackson. Chiefs are on a winning streak and last lost vs ravens was back in 2018.

Tailing @mbiever

@The_Oddsmaker

Nothing big tonight but going to have some action for first game. Probably add Pack/Ravens teaser as well

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Annual first TNF game prop tail of Koerner. Like this one too

@GreenDotDaily

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Boyd

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice The Chiefs are poised for a big start to the season, and despite a winless preseason, there's no need for alarm as most of their key players didn’t see the field. Patrick Mahomes remains the heart of the offense, and his credentials speak for themselves. Last season, he posted 4,183 passing yards, ranking sixth in the NFL, while his 27 touchdowns were the lowest in four years. However, his chemistry with Travis Kelce remains unshaken. Kelce’s 93 receptions last season marked the sixth consecutive year he’s caught 90+ balls, showing that he remains Mahomes' most reliable target. While Kansas City didn’t make significant additions at wide receiver, Mahomes will still find success carving up defenses with his reliable weapons. Kansas City's defense looks to build on an already elite unit. Their defense ranked second in both yards allowed (289.8) and points per game (17.3). Chris Jones and George Karlaftis spearheaded a strong front seven, each registering 10.5 sacks last season. While the loss of L’Jarius Sneed, who led the team with 14 pass deflections, is notable, their secondary was still fourth-best in pass defense, giving up only 176.5 yards per game. Their front seven remains their strength, with linebackers Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill expected to dominate the middle of the field. This defense, while not known for creating turnovers (only eight interceptions last season), is solid at preventing yardage, and should control the line of scrimmage against a vulnerable Ravens offensive front. On the other hand, Baltimore’s offseason changes raise some concerns. The Ravens are working in two new starting guards—Andrew Vorhees and Daniel Faalele—both of whom had rough preseasons. Vorhees, recovering from an ACL tear, had one of the lowest PFF grades among linemen, and Faalele struggled heavily last season, ranking among the worst in pressure rate allowed. Going against Kansas City’s imposing defensive front, this mismatch could be pivotal. Lamar Jackson didn’t take any preseason snaps, and with a shaky O-line, this could leave Baltimore vulnerable to pressure all night. With Mahomes at the helm and the Chiefs’ defense looking formidable against Baltimore’s untested line, Kansas City should find their rhythm early. Facing a Ravens team breaking in new coordinators and dealing with issues at key positions, the Chiefs' experience and home-field advantage are major factors. Mahomes' ability to exploit even small weaknesses, combined with the Ravens' uncertainties on the offensive line, gives Kansas City the edge.

Gonna be bricked when this slaps 1Q

Avery

50% profit boost on DK

@rsura_

This line was set at 13.5 in the same situation vs. the same team in the playoffs (I wrote about it for Action Network). S/O to PropBetGuy and A1FantasySports for the reminder. Last season, the Ravens backfield was a revolving door throughout the year, and backs Gus Edwards + JK Dobbins are now off the team, instead adding bull-rusher Derick Henry, who shouldn’t be involved in the passing game. Keaton Mitchell should be the 3rd back when healthy, but he’s still rehabbing and ACL injury he suffered back in Week 15 vs. the Jags. Since that time, Justice Hill closed the season taking on a new role as the reliable receiver out of the backfill. He recorded 11, 26, 64, 31, & 34 yards his last five games, with an average of 9.8 yards per catch. According to FantasyLife’s Utilization during that time, Hill played on 83.4% of long distance down snaps and 93% snap of 2-minute drill since Week 16. He had to compete with Gus Edwards in this time, but now it’ll be with Derick Henry. As for the matchup, the Chiefs defense allowed seven different backs to tally at least 14 receiving in their last five games to end the season. According to FTN, they allowed 27.6 receiving yards to running backs per games, and ranked in the bottom 10 in passing DVOA versus running backs. Consequently, this sets up as a favorable spot for Hill to go over his yards. #PlayerProps

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Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-player-prop-bet-for-ravens-vs-chiefs-on-thursday-september-5

.tsa under system Overall: 186-97-3,66% (ROI:26%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%)

Discussed this at greater length on Cash That Podcast Lamar has crushed in the 1H generally throughout his career and was 13-5 1H ATS in 2023 and 51-30-2 ATS 1H in his career - that is the best mark in the last 20 years. I'm targeting the 1H specifically because the Chiefs are 7-4 ATS and 9-2 SU in season openers under Andy Reid. I like the idea of backing Baltimore to come out locked in with the best 1H QB in the last 20 years.

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Tailing my guy @The_Oddsmaker

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Fulll breakdown on Pass the Prop - Pass the Prop NFL record 0-0

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Scored a TD in 5 of final 7 games. Chiefs secondary has regressed with no L’Jarius Sneed. Bit of a “Revenge Game” narrative for Zay after his fumble in AFC title game. Would play this down to +200. Collab with @TheBMatt

My fav guy is back

Backing Mahomes in a “square spot”

Certified Nuke Under on 1st game

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- As a ROOKIE, Rice was incredible. He had a 28% TPRR (according to fantasy pts data). Inlcuding postseason, he covered this line in L8/10 games, with the misses at 5 and 4 receptions. - In the preseason, Rice posted a 94% route participation and a 33% target share on 18 Mahomes Dropbacks. The route participation is huge, because he was literally wasn't a full time receiver until week 14. From PFF_NateJanke on twitter, Andy Reid's receiver usage is typically sticky and it seems like KC may be done rotating in their bad receivers, and playing their guys. - It will likely be Rashee, Worthy, Justin Watson, and Kelce running the majority of routes. Watson is just going to run deep balls, he won't see many targets at all. Worthy is also a deep threat. He'll be involved, but I don't see him with a big TS% due to his route tree. Kelce's snaps should keep decreasing on a game by game basis as he keeps getting older, and KC will limit him during regular seasons. - Rice should eat underneath, and get a ton of layup throws. He literally had a 77.5% catch rate last year, he gets open quick and Mahomes hits him. Kyle Hamilton will also be a tough matchup for Kelce, even though Kelce got the best of him in the postseason. - KC with Mahomes/Reid will pass the ball a ton. We know this. Mahomes pass attempt line is at 37.5. - Year two leap coming for Rashee. Love that Justin Watson will be taking up a ton of routes instead of Hollywood. I expect Rice to be the alpha in this room this year

Fliff

The absence of Hollywood Brown coupled with the matchup against Baltimore should leave us suspicious of the Chiefs using short and intermediate passing concepts to move the ball. Rice was a staple of the Chiefs offense in the playoffs against tough opponents, and they should be throwing it a ton.

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CZ

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