Kalshi election markets are Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulated event contracts that let you trade yes or no on political contests. These prediction markets turn polls and commentary into liquid, real-time probabilities the market can use.
Let's take a closer look at everything you need to know about the expanding election outcome markets on Kalshi, including for the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential race.
If you want to follow along and trade on election markets, be sure to sign up with the Kalshi promo code!
TL;DR Summary
- As a fully regulated exchange, Kalshi offers event contracts on election outcomes and other political contests.
- Prices trade between 1¢ and 99¢, with a correct “Yes” settling for $1 per contract.
- Interest has surged into the 2026 midterms and 2028 presidential election.
How Election Event Contracts Work on Kalshi
Kalshi is an exchange where buyers and sellers meet directly, event contracts trade between 1 cent and 99 cents, and the price reflects implied probability. It's a pretty simple idea: a 68-cent price signals a 68% chance of the outcome. If “Yes” settles true, the payout is $1 per contract.
Prices emerge from participant orders and reflect collective sentiment on predicted outcomes. Therefore, listings span election outcomes, congressional elections, and other political happenings such as a government shutdown.
Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), so you’re trading listed contracts on a regulated exchange, not offshore markets. Functionally, these instruments look like derivative contracts or futures contracts tied to specific outcomes.
- Contracts: Priced in cents that equal probability, settling for $1 on a correct “Yes.”
- Placing Trades: Choose Yes or No, set a quantity, place a limit price.
- Liquidity: You can sell before settlement for a gain or loss, depending on market conditions.
Volume, Accuracy, and Who’s Trading
With the 2026 midterms quickly approaching, election markets at Kalshi have drawn heavy volume. It's not only speculation, though, as participants from financial markets also use contracts to hedge existing positions, and market makers help keep spreads tight, so you see casual traders alongside pros.
In 2025, political activity on the exchange exceeded its 2024 presidential election peak, with headline questions such as "which political party will control Congress" accelerating growth. In 2024, these markets usually tracked outcomes more closely than major polls, which is why political outcome trading continues to attract both retail interest and professional hedging.
Read Next: Open Interest vs. Volume at Prediction Markets: A Guide for Traders
Read Next: Understanding Liquidity vs. Accuracy at Prediction Markets: A Guide for Traders
Kalshi Partners with CNN
CNN announced a data partnership with Kalshi, the world's largest regulated prediction market exchange. Kalshi's platform tracks real-time probabilities for political, cultural, and news events, recently calling the NYC Mayoral election just eight minutes after polls closed.
The collaboration will give CNN journalists access to Kalshi's prediction data to complement their reporting, including a new on-screen ticker and integration led by data analyst Harry Enten.
Active Kalshi Election Markets
As you can imagine from the constant flow of news and data, prediction markets are incredibly busy right now. Kalshi election markets list contracts on everything from who will control Congress to city races that create headlines and sustain the public interest month after month. As one of the best political "betting" apps, Kalshi is the perfefct spot to trade on election outcomes.
Next US Presidential Election Winner on Kalshi
Looking ahead, the “Next US Presidential Election Winner” market is a driver of activity. Traders have moved more than $12 million across nominees and party control contracts. Current VP JD Vance leads, with California Governor Gavin Newsom relatively close behind. Other contenders that have seen trading volume at Kalshi include: Marco Rubio, AOC, and Josh Shapiro.
Here are the live odds for the 2028 presidential winner at Kalshi:
There's also a contract on which political party will win the 2028 presidential election, with the Democratic party currently being favored. It's an interesting contrast with the market above, as they indicate different results.
2026 California Governor Election Winner on Kalshi
California’s 2026 gubernatorial race will draw national attention with Governor Gavin Newsom being term-limited and unable to run again. Issues like wildfires and the departure of tech companies keep the race front-page and set up a busy election day.
Here are the live odds from Kalshi for who will win the 2026 California governor election:
Other Prediction Markets Kalshi Offers
Beyond the marquee races, Kalshi lists policy and governance questions that trade steadily alongside election outcomes. Here are a few you’ll see on the board:
- Who will be the Republican nominee for Governor in Florida?
- How much government spending will Trump cut this year?
- Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve this year?
- Will Trump impose pharma tariffs this year?
- Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?
- AI regulation becomes federal law this year?
- Congress banned from trading stocks this year?
- How long will the government shutdown last?
These sit next to other political contests and future events that pick up whenever headlines move. If non-political predictionmarkets are more of your speed, you can take a look at markets like Taylor Swift Prediction Markets, GTA 6 Prediction Markets, and Rotten Tomatoes Prediction Markets.
Action Network’s Tips for Trading Kalshi Election Markets
You don’t need a new playbook, just a cleaner one. Use what fits your edge and skip the rest.
- Stay in Your Lane. Focus where you actually know the niche: a state law you track, a lower court decision you’ve read, a district election you follow closely. Settlement relies on official election results, so lean on sources you trust and keep election integrity in mind.
- Trade the News, Not the Echo. In prediction markets, prices move first on primary reporting and public interest, then the echo chamber chases. Size your positions, check liquidity before you enter, and avoid jumping at spikes that look like market manipulation.
- Diversify Across Markets. Spread risk by mixing time horizons and topics, from policy questions to races that could control Congress. Same principle you’d use in sporting events or financial markets: one miss shouldn’t sink the portfolio.
You can also trade on election markets using the Plus500 promo code.
Yes. U.S. users 18+ can open an account and trade after sign-up and ID verification. Availability can depend on state law. You can also propose new election markets; if approved, the exchange may offer trading so other traders can participate.
More than 100 election markets across races and policy questions, including the 2028 presidential race, governor races, and 2026 congressional control. You’ll also see governance topics that move with headlines, plus a smaller set of future events outside core politics. This page focuses on election markets rather than sporting events or other categories.
Yes, you can trade on event contracts related to the 2028 presidential election at Kalshi. Available markets include those related to who the next president is, what political affiliation the next president will have, etc.
The 2026 midterms. All 435 House seats and 33 Senate seats are up, alongside key governor races like California. These are federal elections held on Election Day in November.