In Japan, Sugano was an elite command guy: 2024: 2.6% BB-rate 2023: 4.8% BB-rate 2022: 4.4% BB-rate In 2 starts in the MLB, he has 3 walks, 2 coming in his first start, with a 7.3% BB-rate. I would expect that rate to come down as we get a larger sample size and Tomoyuki settles into the big leagues. He faced 23 batters throwing 89 pitches last game, if he gets up 25 batters faced tonight & we assume his long-term BB-rate is 5% (conservative), we’d still only be projecting 1.25 walks allowed. Toronto has the 6th lowest walk rate to RHP to start the season. There’s a chance of bad weather in Baltimore tonight, there’s some added value here as there’s a small chance this game goes into a rain delay and Sugano gets a shortened start. Would play this to (+100)