NCAAF Projections
SCHEDULED | OPEN | PRO LINE Projections Our model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections. | CONS. | GRADE | EDGE | BEST ODDS | BET % | MONEY % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4:00 PM ![]() Stanford STAN ![]() Hawaii HAW | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2-110 +2.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() Iowa State ISU ![]() K State KSU | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-110 -3.5-105 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() Fresno State FRES ![]() Kansas KU | +14.5 -14.5 | +14.5 -14.5 | +14.5-110 -14.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() Sam Houston SHSU ![]() W. Kentucky WKU | +7 -7 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7+100 -7.5+100 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() Stephen FA SFA ![]() Houston HOU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() Buffalo BUFF ![]() Minnesota MINN | +18.5 -18.5 | +18.5 -18.5 | +18.5-110 -18.5-105 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() Wyoming WYO ![]() Akron AKR | -9.5 +9.5 | -9 +9 | -8.5-110 +9.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() Delaware St DLS ![]() Delaware DEL | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() E. Carolina ECU ![]() NC State NCST | +14 -14 | +12 -12 | +12.5-110 -11.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() Ohio OHIO ![]() Rutgers RUT | +10.5 -10.5 | +10.5 -10.5 | +10.5-108 -10.5-108 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() Stony Brook SBK ![]() San Diego St SDSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() C. Michigan CMU ![]() San Jose St SJSU | +10.5 -10.5 | +11 -11 | +11.5-110 -10.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() TN-Martin TNM ![]() OK State OKST | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() Jax State JVST ![]() UCF UCF | +16.5 -16.5 | +17 -17 | +17-110 -16.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() Elon ELO ![]() Duke DUKE | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() Miami (OH) M-OH ![]() Wisconsin WIS | +17.5 -17.5 | +16.5 -16.5 | +17.5-110 -15.5-115 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() Alabama St ALAST ![]() UAB UAB | N/A N/A | |||||||
9:30 PM ![]() Boise State BOISE ![]() S. Florida USF | -10 +10 | -10 +10 | -9.5-110 +10-108 | |||||
10:00 PM ![]() Lafayette LAF ![]() Bowling Green BGSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM ![]() St. Francis (PA) STF ![]() LA-Monroe ULM | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:30 PM ![]() C. Arkansas CARK ![]() Missouri MIZ | N/A N/A | |||||||
1:00 AM ![]() Nebraska NEB ![]() Cincinnati CIN | -6.5 +6.5 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6.5-110 +6.5-103 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() Kennesaw St KENN ![]() Wake Forest WF | +17.5 -17.5 | +18 -18 | +18.5-110 -17.5-109 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() App State APP ![]() Charlotte CHA | -8.5 +8.5 | -9 +9 | -8.5-110 +10-110 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() B-Cookman BCU ![]() FIU FIU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() Tarleton TAR ![]() Army ARMY | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() UNLV UNLV ![]() Sam Houston SHSU | -13.5 +13.5 | -13 +13 | -12.5-110 +13.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() Wagner WAG ![]() Kansas KU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() Auburn AUB ![]() Baylor BAY | -1.5 +1.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -1.5-110 +2.5-106 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() W. Illinois WIL ![]() Illinois ILL | N/A N/A | |||||||
12:00 AM ![]() GA Tech GT ![]() Colorado COLO | -3.5 +3.5 | -3.5 +3.5 | -3.5-110 +4-107 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() FL Atlantic FAU ![]() Maryland UMD | +17.5 -17.5 | +17 -17 | +17.5-110 -17-110 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() Charleston So CCH ![]() Vanderbilt VAN | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() Merrimack MC ![]() Kent State KENT | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() Utah UTAH ![]() UCLA UCLA | -2.5 +2.5 | -3.5 +3.5 | -3.5-110 +4.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() Texas TEX ![]() Ohio State OSU | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-115 -3.5+104 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() Fordham FOR ![]() Boston Col BC | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() Holy Cross HC ![]() N. Illinois NIU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() Nevada NEV ![]() Penn State PSU | +43.5 -43.5 | +45.5 -45.5 | +45.5-110 -46.5-108 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() Georgia State GAST ![]() Ole Miss MISS | +35.5 -35.5 | +37 -37 | +36.5-109 -36.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() SE Missouri SEM ![]() Arkansas St ARST | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() Missouri St MOST ![]() USC USC | +31.5 -31.5 | +32.5 -32.5 | +33.5-109 -32.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() Illinois St ILS ![]() Oklahoma OU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() Rice RICE ![]() Louisiana UL | +14.5 -14.5 | +14.5 -14.5 | +16-109 -14.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() Long Island LIU ![]() Florida FLA | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() N. Arizona NAZ ![]() Arizona St ASU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() South Dakota SDAK ![]() Iowa State ISU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() Old Dominion ODU ![]() Indiana IU | +23.5 -23.5 | +23.5 -23.5 | +23.5-110 -21.5-109 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() Maine ME ![]() Liberty LIB | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() Ball State BALL ![]() Purdue PUR | +16.5 -16.5 | +16.5 -16.5 | +16.5-110 -16.5-109 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() Duquesne DUQ ![]() Pittsburgh PITT | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() E TA&M ETAM ![]() SMU SMU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() Hawaii HAW ![]() Arizona ARI | +10.5 -10.5 | +11 -11 | +10.5-110 -11.5-105 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() New Mexico UNM ![]() Michigan MICH | +34.5 -34.5 | +34.5 -34.5 | +34.5-105 -34.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() Syracuse SYR ![]() Tennessee TENN | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5-110 -11.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() Northwestern NW ![]() Tulane TULN | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-110 -7-110 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() VMI VMI ![]() Navy NAVY | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() AR-Pine Bluff APB ![]() Texas Tech TTU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() Bucknell BUCK ![]() Air Force AFA | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() Robert Morris RMU ![]() West Virginia WVU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() Marshall MRSH ![]() Georgia UGA | +38.5 -38.5 | +39 -39 | +39.5-110 -38.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() SE Louisiana SEL ![]() LA Tech LT | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() E. Michigan EMU ![]() Texas St TXST | +14.5 -14.5 | +14.5 -14.5 | +14-110 -14.5-105 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() Coastal Car CC ![]() Virginia UVA | +12.5 -12.5 | +13 -13 | +13.5-110 -12.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() N Alabama UNA ![]() W. Kentucky WKU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() W. Michigan WMU ![]() Michigan St MSU | +17.5 -17.5 | +18 -18 | +18.5-110 -17.5-109 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() UTSA UTSA ![]() Texas A&M TA&M | +21 -21 | +21 -21 | +20.5-104 -21-109 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() Toledo TOL ![]() Kentucky UK | +12.5 -12.5 | +11.5 -11.5 | +11.5-110 -11.5-105 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() Central Conn CCSU ![]() UConn UCONN | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() Colorado St CSU ![]() Washington WASH | +18.5 -18.5 | +18.5 -18.5 | +18.5-110 -18-110 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() Montana St MOS ![]() Oregon ORE | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() Bryant U BRY ![]() N. Mexico St NMSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() UTEP UTEP ![]() Utah State USU | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +4.5-110 -3.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() Morgan State MGN ![]() S. Alabama USA | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() North Dakota UND ![]() K State KSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() Austin Peay APSU ![]() Middle Tenn MTSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() Temple TEM ![]() UMass MASS | +1.5 -1.5 | PK PK | +1.5-110 +1.5-112 | |||||
4:00 PM ![]() Chattanooga CHT ![]() Memphis MEM | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() Albany ALB ![]() Iowa IOWA | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() Ab Christian ACU ![]() Tulsa TLSA | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() Nicholls St NIC ![]() Troy TROY | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() Portland State PRST ![]() BYU BYU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() Weber State WEB ![]() JMU JMU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() Alabama A&M AAM ![]() Arkansas ARK | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() Lamar LAM ![]() North Texas UNT | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() E. Kentucky EKU ![]() Louisville LOU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM ![]() GA Southern GASO ![]() Fresno State FRES | +1.5 -1.5 | +2 -2 | +2.5-112 -1-105 | |||||
-15.5 +15.5 | -14 +14 | -13.5-110 +14-105 | ||||||
7:30 PM ![]() Alabama BAMA ![]() Florida St FSU | -11.5 +11.5 | -11.5 +11.5 | -11.5-110 +13-110 | |||||
11:30 PM ![]() LSU LSU ![]() Clemson CLEM | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +3-105 -2.5-110 | |||||
2:00 AM ![]() Idaho IDHO ![]() Washington St WSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
2:30 AM ![]() California CAL ![]() Oregon St ORST | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-109 -1-105 | |||||
7:00 PM ![]() VA Tech VT ![]() S. Carolina SC | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5-109 -9.5-110 | |||||
11:30 PM ![]() Notre Dame ND ![]() Miami (FL) MIA | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -1.5-110 +2.5-107 | |||||
12:00 AM ![]() TCU TCU ![]() UNC UNC | +2.5 -2.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +2.5-110 -1.5-110 |
A lot of factors are considered by expert NCAAF bettors, both in terms of on-field performance and the betting market. For example, many smart bettors are keenly aware of line movement and which sportsbooks post the best prices. But one of the most important factors is building out NCAAF projections that can be measured against lines in the market.
How NCAAF Projections Work
There are many ways to build NCAAF projections, be it with a statistical model, using the betting market as a guide, or something else. And even within a statistical model, college football handicappers can vary in how they approach building it, focusing on team performance, player performance, or perhaps a hybrid blend of both.
At The Action Network, our NCAAF projections are projection blends of several of our key betting experts. How they approach their final numbers on a game might vary, but the blend of those projections work to create a better, composite number that is our best reflection of what to expect in a game.
We project the three big markets in NCAAF betting -- spreads, over/unders, and moneylines -- and do so for every game in each season. Within our PRO Report -- part of our PRO subscription -- we'll measure those projections against lines for every U.S. book, so you can easily spot edges and potential bets.
A lot of our experts rely on advanced statistics to build their models and get their numbers on games, and of course it's incredibly important when building college football projections to be aware of news and injuries.
The most important position in the football is quarterback, and it's not unreasonable to see a line move 4-5 points or more if a star is suddenly ruled out on a Saturday morning. Other positions are less valuable to the spread, which might surprise a casual gambler. Notably, running backs -- even the very best ones in the country-- rarely move betting lines if they're unable to play for whatever reason.
Using those advanced stats, along with a variety of other important factors like recent play, advantages for a team on offense/defense/special teams, player values, news, predicting home-field advantage and rest situations is how our experts land on the numbers you see above.
The Action Network's NCAAF Projections
Our NCAAF experts will provide consensus projections for every college football game's spread, moneyline, and over/under. On this page you'll then find those projections compared to the market in two ways: 1) the edge, which is the percentage difference between a sportsbook's odds vs. our projections and 2) a letter grade based on that edge.
The two comparisons are correlated, so don't stress about which you use. We show the edge to be transparent for bettors, and some advanced bettors will bet based on the Kelly criterion, which adjusts bet sizes based on projected edge. But if you just want to quickly eye things, the "A" through "F" grades are based on those edge numbers and might be easier to understand for novice bettors. Both comparisons are color-coded with the highest edges and "A" grades given a green coloring while negative edges and "F" grades will have red markings.
Spread projections will be compared to the consensus line in the market, but of course, spread numbers will vary based on the book, so in reality, sometimes your edge can be higher if you find a good number.
If you're unfamiliar, spread bets are one of the most common wagers on college football: They're simply bets on the margin of victory. Say the Georgia Bulldogs have a spread of -6.5 vs. the Florida Gators. In that situation, a spread bet on Georgia would cash if they won by a touchdown or more. A bet on Alabama at +6.5 would cash if they won the game outright or merely lost by six or fewer points.
Note that key numbers are important in projecting an edge in college football. Key numbers are just numbers that a game is likelier to land on because of the scoring in football: A 2-0 game is much less likely to occur than a 7-0 game. That means the difference between 6.5 and 7 on the spread is much more important than the difference between 12.5 and 13. The way we grade our NCAAF projections vs. the consensus accounts for these key numbers.
Key numbers are also important for totals, or over/unders, which are bets on the combined point output in a game. For a new bettor, you'll see a total number posted at a sportsbook and you'll be able to bet the over or under. Say the Oregon Ducks vs. Oklahoma Sooners game has a total of 64 points: Bettors on the under would cash if the teams combined for 63 or fewer points; over bettors would win at 65 or more.
Key numbers are also important in totals betting because, again, scoring isn't by ones, twos, or threes like it is for, say, basketball. Since touchdowns are worth seven points apiece (assuming the extra point is made), total numbers in multiples of sevens and threes are more likely to occur.
You don't have to worry about key numbers in moneyline betting, which is a common wager type just on which team will win the game outright. Everything here depends on the likelihood of a team winning (the odds a book will post) vs. how likely our NCAAF projections say that team is to win.
It's easiest if you think about moneyline odds in terms of $10 or $100 increments. Say the Texas Tech Red Raiders are +250 on the moneyline vs. the Clemson Tigers, who are -290. If you bet $10 on Texas Tech and they won, you would receive $25 in profit. A bet on Clemson, who are favored, would require $29 bet to win $10 in the event of a victory.