NCAAF Projections
| SCHEDULED | OPEN | PRO LINE Projections Our model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections. | CONS. | GRADE | EDGE | BEST ODDS | BET % | MONEY % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4:00 PM  Stanford STAN  Hawaii HAW | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2-110 +2.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM  Iowa State ISU  K State KSU | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-110 -3.5-105 | |||||
4:00 PM  Fresno State FRES  Kansas KU | +14.5 -14.5 | +14.5 -14.5 | +14.5-110 -14.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM  Sam Houston SHSU  W. Kentucky WKU | +7 -7 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7+100 -7.5+100 | |||||
4:00 PM  Stephen FA SFA  Houston HOU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Buffalo BUFF  Minnesota MINN | +18.5 -18.5 | +18.5 -18.5 | +18.5-110 -18.5-105 | |||||
4:00 PM  Wyoming WYO  Akron AKR | -9.5 +9.5 | -9 +9 | -8.5-110 +9.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM  Delaware St DLS  Delaware DEL | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  E. Carolina ECU  NC State NCST | +14 -14 | +12 -12 | +12.5-110 -11.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM  Ohio OHIO  Rutgers RUT | +10.5 -10.5 | +10.5 -10.5 | +10.5-108 -10.5-108 | |||||
4:00 PM  Stony Brook SBK  San Diego St SDSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  C. Michigan CMU  San Jose St SJSU | +10.5 -10.5 | +11 -11 | +11.5-110 -10.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM  TN-Martin TNM  OK State OKST | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Jax State JVST  UCF UCF | +16.5 -16.5 | +17 -17 | +17-110 -16.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM  Elon ELO  Duke DUKE | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Miami (OH) M-OH  Wisconsin WIS | +17.5 -17.5 | +16.5 -16.5 | +17.5-110 -15.5-115 | |||||
4:00 PM  Alabama St ALAST  UAB UAB | N/A N/A | |||||||
9:30 PM  Boise State BOISE  S. Florida USF | -10 +10 | -10 +10 | -9.5-110 +10-108 | |||||
10:00 PM  Lafayette LAF  Bowling Green BGSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  St. Francis (PA) STF  LA-Monroe ULM | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:30 PM  C. Arkansas CARK  Missouri MIZ | N/A N/A | |||||||
1:00 AM  Nebraska NEB  Cincinnati CIN | -6.5 +6.5 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6.5-110 +6.5-103 | |||||
4:00 PM  Kennesaw St KENN  Wake Forest WF | +17.5 -17.5 | +18 -18 | +18.5-110 -17.5-109 | |||||
4:00 PM  App State APP  Charlotte CHA | -8.5 +8.5 | -9 +9 | -8.5-110 +10-110 | |||||
4:00 PM  B-Cookman BCU  FIU FIU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Tarleton TAR  Army ARMY | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  UNLV UNLV Sam Houston SHSU | -13.5 +13.5 | -13 +13 | -12.5-110 +13.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM  Wagner WAG Kansas KU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Auburn AUB  Baylor BAY | -1.5 +1.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -1.5-110 +2.5-106 | |||||
4:00 PM  W. Illinois WIL  Illinois ILL | N/A N/A | |||||||
12:00 AM  GA Tech GT  Colorado COLO | -3.5 +3.5 | -3.5 +3.5 | -3.5-110 +4-107 | |||||
4:00 PM  FL Atlantic FAU  Maryland UMD | +17.5 -17.5 | +17 -17 | +17.5-110 -17-110 | |||||
4:00 PM  Charleston So CCH  Vanderbilt VAN | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Merrimack MC  Kent State KENT | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Utah UTAH  UCLA UCLA | -2.5 +2.5 | -3.5 +3.5 | -3.5-110 +4.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM  Texas TEX  Ohio State OSU | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-115 -3.5+104 | |||||
4:00 PM  Fordham FOR  Boston Col BC | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Holy Cross HC  N. Illinois NIU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Nevada NEV  Penn State PSU | +43.5 -43.5 | +45.5 -45.5 | +45.5-110 -46.5-108 | |||||
4:00 PM  Georgia State GAST  Ole Miss MISS | +35.5 -35.5 | +37 -37 | +36.5-109 -36.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM  SE Missouri SEM  Arkansas St ARST | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Missouri St MOST  USC USC | +31.5 -31.5 | +32.5 -32.5 | +33.5-109 -32.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM  Illinois St ILS  Oklahoma OU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Rice RICE  Louisiana UL | +14.5 -14.5 | +14.5 -14.5 | +16-109 -14.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM  Long Island LIU  Florida FLA | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  N. Arizona NAZ  Arizona St ASU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  South Dakota SDAK Iowa State ISU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Old Dominion ODU  Indiana IU | +23.5 -23.5 | +23.5 -23.5 | +23.5-110 -21.5-109 | |||||
4:00 PM  Maine ME  Liberty LIB | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Ball State BALL  Purdue PUR | +16.5 -16.5 | +16.5 -16.5 | +16.5-110 -16.5-109 | |||||
4:00 PM  Duquesne DUQ  Pittsburgh PITT | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  E TA&M ETAM  SMU SMU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM Hawaii HAW  Arizona ARI | +10.5 -10.5 | +11 -11 | +10.5-110 -11.5-105 | |||||
4:00 PM  New Mexico UNM  Michigan MICH | +34.5 -34.5 | +34.5 -34.5 | +34.5-105 -34.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM  Syracuse SYR  Tennessee TENN | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5-110 -11.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM  Northwestern NW  Tulane TULN | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-110 -7-110 | |||||
4:00 PM  VMI VMI  Navy NAVY | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  AR-Pine Bluff APB  Texas Tech TTU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Bucknell BUCK  Air Force AFA | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Robert Morris RMU  West Virginia WVU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Marshall MRSH  Georgia UGA | +38.5 -38.5 | +39 -39 | +39.5-110 -38.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM  SE Louisiana SEL  LA Tech LT | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  E. Michigan EMU  Texas St TXST | +14.5 -14.5 | +14.5 -14.5 | +14-110 -14.5-105 | |||||
4:00 PM  Coastal Car CC  Virginia UVA | +12.5 -12.5 | +13 -13 | +13.5-110 -12.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM  N Alabama UNA W. Kentucky WKU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  W. Michigan WMU  Michigan St MSU | +17.5 -17.5 | +18 -18 | +18.5-110 -17.5-109 | |||||
4:00 PM  UTSA UTSA  Texas A&M TA&M | +21 -21 | +21 -21 | +20.5-104 -21-109 | |||||
4:00 PM  Toledo TOL  Kentucky UK | +12.5 -12.5 | +11.5 -11.5 | +11.5-110 -11.5-105 | |||||
4:00 PM  Central Conn CCSU  UConn UCONN | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Colorado St CSU  Washington WASH | +18.5 -18.5 | +18.5 -18.5 | +18.5-110 -18-110 | |||||
4:00 PM  Montana St MOS  Oregon ORE | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Bryant U BRY  N. Mexico St NMSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  UTEP UTEP  Utah State USU | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +4.5-110 -3.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM  Morgan State MGN  S. Alabama USA | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  North Dakota UND K State KSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Austin Peay APSU  Middle Tenn MTSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Temple TEM  UMass MASS | +1.5 -1.5 | PK PK | +1.5-110 +1.5-112 | |||||
4:00 PM  Chattanooga CHT  Memphis MEM | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Albany ALB  Iowa IOWA | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Ab Christian ACU  Tulsa TLSA | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Nicholls St NIC  Troy TROY | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Portland State PRST  BYU BYU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Weber State WEB  JMU JMU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Alabama A&M AAM  Arkansas ARK | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Lamar LAM  North Texas UNT | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  E. Kentucky EKU  Louisville LOU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  GA Southern GASO Fresno State FRES | +1.5 -1.5 | +2 -2 | +2.5-112 -1-105 | |||||
-15.5 +15.5 | -14 +14 | -13.5-110 +14-105 | ||||||
7:30 PM  Alabama BAMA  Florida St FSU | -11.5 +11.5 | -11.5 +11.5 | -11.5-110 +13-110 | |||||
11:30 PM  LSU LSU  Clemson CLEM | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +3-105 -2.5-110 | |||||
2:00 AM  Idaho IDHO  Washington St WSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
2:30 AM  California CAL  Oregon St ORST | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-109 -1-105 | |||||
7:00 PM  VA Tech VT  S. Carolina SC | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5-109 -9.5-110 | |||||
11:30 PM  Notre Dame ND  Miami (FL) MIA | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -1.5-110 +2.5-107 | |||||
12:00 AM  TCU TCU  UNC UNC | +2.5 -2.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +2.5-110 -1.5-110 |
A lot of factors are considered by expert NCAAF bettors, both in terms of on-field performance and the betting market. For example, many smart bettors are keenly aware of line movement and which sportsbooks post the best prices. But one of the most important factors is building out NCAAF projections that can be measured against lines in the market.
How NCAAF Projections Work
There are many ways to build NCAAF projections, be it with a statistical model, using the betting market as a guide, or something else. And even within a statistical model, college football handicappers can vary in how they approach building it, focusing on team performance, player performance, or perhaps a hybrid blend of both.
At The Action Network, our NCAAF projections are projection blends of several of our key betting experts. How they approach their final numbers on a game might vary, but the blend of those projections work to create a better, composite number that is our best reflection of what to expect in a game.
We project the three big markets in NCAAF betting -- spreads, over/unders, and moneylines -- and do so for every game in each season. Within our PRO Report -- part of our PRO subscription -- we'll measure those projections against lines for every U.S. book, so you can easily spot edges and potential bets.
A lot of our experts rely on advanced statistics to build their models and get their numbers on games, and of course it's incredibly important when building college football projections to be aware of news and injuries.
The most important position in the football is quarterback, and it's not unreasonable to see a line move 4-5 points or more if a star is suddenly ruled out on a Saturday morning. Other positions are less valuable to the spread, which might surprise a casual gambler. Notably, running backs -- even the very best ones in the country-- rarely move betting lines if they're unable to play for whatever reason.
Using those advanced stats, along with a variety of other important factors like recent play, advantages for a team on offense/defense/special teams, player values, news, predicting home-field advantage and rest situations is how our experts land on the numbers you see above.
The Action Network's NCAAF Projections
Our NCAAF experts will provide consensus projections for every college football game's spread, moneyline, and over/under. On this page you'll then find those projections compared to the market in two ways: 1) the edge, which is the percentage difference between a sportsbook's odds vs. our projections and 2) a letter grade based on that edge.
The two comparisons are correlated, so don't stress about which you use. We show the edge to be transparent for bettors, and some advanced bettors will bet based on the Kelly criterion, which adjusts bet sizes based on projected edge. But if you just want to quickly eye things, the "A" through "F" grades are based on those edge numbers and might be easier to understand for novice bettors. Both comparisons are color-coded with the highest edges and "A" grades given a green coloring while negative edges and "F" grades will have red markings.
Spread projections will be compared to the consensus line in the market, but of course, spread numbers will vary based on the book, so in reality, sometimes your edge can be higher if you find a good number.
If you're unfamiliar, spread bets are one of the most common wagers on college football: They're simply bets on the margin of victory. Say the Georgia Bulldogs have a spread of -6.5 vs. the Florida Gators. In that situation, a spread bet on Georgia would cash if they won by a touchdown or more. A bet on Alabama at +6.5 would cash if they won the game outright or merely lost by six or fewer points.
Note that key numbers are important in projecting an edge in college football. Key numbers are just numbers that a game is likelier to land on because of the scoring in football: A 2-0 game is much less likely to occur than a 7-0 game. That means the difference between 6.5 and 7 on the spread is much more important than the difference between 12.5 and 13. The way we grade our NCAAF projections vs. the consensus accounts for these key numbers.
Key numbers are also important for totals, or over/unders, which are bets on the combined point output in a game. For a new bettor, you'll see a total number posted at a sportsbook and you'll be able to bet the over or under. Say the Oregon Ducks vs. Oklahoma Sooners game has a total of 64 points: Bettors on the under would cash if the teams combined for 63 or fewer points; over bettors would win at 65 or more.
Key numbers are also important in totals betting because, again, scoring isn't by ones, twos, or threes like it is for, say, basketball. Since touchdowns are worth seven points apiece (assuming the extra point is made), total numbers in multiples of sevens and threes are more likely to occur.
You don't have to worry about key numbers in moneyline betting, which is a common wager type just on which team will win the game outright. Everything here depends on the likelihood of a team winning (the odds a book will post) vs. how likely our NCAAF projections say that team is to win.
It's easiest if you think about moneyline odds in terms of $10 or $100 increments. Say the Texas Tech Red Raiders are +250 on the moneyline vs. the Clemson Tigers, who are -290. If you bet $10 on Texas Tech and they won, you would receive $25 in profit. A bet on Clemson, who are favored, would require $29 bet to win $10 in the event of a victory.