NCAAF Projections
| SCHEDULED | OPEN | PRO LINE Projections Our model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections. | CONS. | GRADE | EDGE | BEST ODDS | BET % | MONEY % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12:30 AM NC State NCST 113 GA Tech GT 114 | +6.5 -6.5 | +9 -9 | +8.5-106 -8.5-110 | 58%42% | ||||
12:00 AM Temple TEM 115 UTSA UTSA 116 | +14.5 -14.5 | +16.5 -16.5 | +16.5-106 -16-110 | 82%18% | ||||
1:00 AM Purdue PUR 117 Michigan St MSU 118 | +14.5 -14.5 | +13.5 -13.5 | +13.5-105 -13-110 | 71%29% | ||||
3:00 AM UNLV UNLV 119 San Jose St SJSU 120 | -8.5 +8.5 | -7.5 +7.5 | -7.5-106 +7.5-110 | 49%51% | ||||
5:00 PM UNC UNC 135 Boston Col BC 136 | -3.5 +3.5 | -3 +3 | -3-105 +2.5+102 | 62%38% | ||||
5:00 PM Illinois ILL 161 Rutgers RUT 162 | +1 -1 | -1.5 +1.5 | +1-113 +1.5-112 | 89%11% | ||||
+8.5 -8.5 | +6 -6 | +6-108 -6.5+100 | 88%12% | |||||
5:00 PM Iowa IOWA 157 Maryland UMD 158 | -9.5 +9.5 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6-110 +6.5-107 | 86%14% | ||||
5:00 PM SMU SMU 123 Virginia UVA 124 | -10.5 +10.5 | -9.5 +9.5 | -9.5-110 +9.5-105 | 67%33% | ||||
5:00 PM Wake Forest WF 129 Miami (FL) MIA 130 | +24 -24 | +25 -25 | +24.5-105 -24.5-108 | 46%54% | ||||
5:00 PM Ole Miss MISS 141 Florida FLA 142 | -7 +7 | -10.5 +10.5 | -10-110 +10.5-108 | 52%48% | ||||
5:00 PM UConn UCONN 145 Syracuse SYR 146 | +9.5 -9.5 | +10.5 -10.5 | +10.5-108 -10-112 | 64%36% | ||||
5:00 PM Indiana IU 159 Ohio State OSU 160 | +9.5 -9.5 | +13.5 -13.5 | +13.5-110 -13.5-105 | 67%33% | ||||
5:45 PM UMass MASS 165 Georgia UGA 166 | +45.5 -45.5 | +42.5 -42.5 | +42-106 -42.5-105 | 64%36% | ||||
6:00 PM W. Kentucky WKU 167 Liberty LIB 168 | -1 +1 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-112 -1.5-102 | 60%40% | ||||
6:00 PM UTEP UTEP 169 Tennessee TENN 170 | +39.5 -39.5 | +41.5 -41.5 | +41.5-105 -41-110 | 59%41% | ||||
6:30 PM Charleston So CCH Florida St FSU | +32.5 -32.5 | +33.5 -33.5 | +33.5-105 -33.5-112 | |||||
7:00 PM Rice RICE 203 UAB UAB 204 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6.5-110 +6.5-102 | 75%25% | ||||
-10.5 +10.5 | -12 +12 | -11.5-108 +11.5-105 | 15%85% | |||||
+3.5 -3.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-110 -3-115 | 50%50% | |||||
7:30 PM JMU JMU 151 App State APP 152 | -7 +7 | -7 +7 | -7.5+100 +7-110 | |||||
8:00 PM Charlotte CHA 147 FL Atlantic FAU 148 | PK PK | -3 +3 | -2.5-112 +3-110 | |||||
8:00 PM FIU FIU 183 Kennesaw St KENN 184 | -8.5 +8.5 | -8.5 +8.5 | -8.5-110 +8.5-105 | |||||
+5 -5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-105 -2.5-108 | 67%33% | |||||
-21.5 +21.5 | -22 +22 | -22-110 +21.5-105 | 40%60% | |||||
8:00 PM Arizona ARI 187 TCU TCU 188 | +9.5 -9.5 | +11.5 -11.5 | +11.5-110 -11.5-109 | 88%12% | ||||
8:30 PM Colorado COLO 139 Kansas KU 140 | -2.5 +2.5 | -3 +3 | -3-105 +3.5-120 | 64%26% | ||||
8:30 PM UCF UCF 131 West Virginia WVU 132 | -2.5 +2.5 | -3 +3 | -2.5-118 +3-109 | |||||
8:30 PM Tulsa TLSA 149 S. Florida USF 150 | +14 -14 | +17.5 -17.5 | +17.5-110 -17-110 | 86%14% | ||||
+1.5 -1.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-110 -2.5-110 | ||||||
+2.5 -2.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-104 -2.5-110 | ||||||
8:30 PM Texas Tech TTU 197 OK State OKST 198 | -4.5 +4.5 | -3.5 +3.5 | -3.5-110 +3.5-108 | 93%7% | ||||
+4.5 -4.5 | +4.5 -4.5 | +4.5-110 -4.5+100 | ||||||
8:30 PM Wisconsin WIS 153 Nebraska NEB 154 | -1.5 +1.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-105 -2.5-110 | 38%62% | ||||
8:30 PM Northwestern NW 163 Michigan MICH 164 | +12.5 -12.5 | +10.5 -10.5 | +10-106 -10.5-105 | 71%29% | ||||
8:30 PM Citadel CIT Clemson CLEM | +50.5 -50.5 | +49.5 -49.5 | +49.5-105 -48.5-109 | |||||
8:30 PM Kentucky UK 195 Texas TEX 196 | +21 -21 | +20.5 -20.5 | +20.5-105 -20.5-110 | 78%18% | ||||
8:30 PM Penn State PSU 155 Minnesota MINN 156 | -10 +10 | -11.5 +11.5 | -11.5-110 +11.5-108 | 59%41% | ||||
8:30 PM BYU BYU 175 Arizona St ASU 176 | +1.5 -1.5 | +3 -3 | +3-110 -3-110 | 43%57% | ||||
8:30 PM Stanford STAN 179 California CAL 180 | +10.5 -10.5 | +14 -14 | +13.5-102 -14-110 | 93%7% | ||||
9:00 PM Wofford WOF S. Carolina SC | +42.5 -42.5 | +42.5 -42.5 | +42.5-110 -42.5-110 | |||||
+7 -7 | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5-110 -7.5-112 | ||||||
9:00 PM LA Tech LT 205 Arkansas ARK 206 | +23.5 -23.5 | +22 -22 | +21.5-105 -22-110 | 60%40% | ||||
-5.5 +5.5 | -7.5 +7.5 | -7.5-108 +7.5-106 | 87%13% | |||||
10:00 PM Troy TROY 185 Louisiana UL 186 | +7.5 -7.5 | +10.5 -10.5 | +10.5-113 -10.5-105 | 50%50% | ||||
12:00 AM Georgia State GAST 201 Texas St TXST 202 | +17 -17 | +20.5 -20.5 | +20.5-110 -20-110 | |||||
12:00 AM Baylor BAY 209 Houston HOU 210 | -7.5 +7.5 | -7.5 +7.5 | -7.5-110 +8-110 | 88%12% | ||||
12:00 AM Washington St WSU 219 Oregon St ORST 220 | -12.5 +12.5 | -12.5 +12.5 | -12.5-109 +12.5-110 | 6%94% | ||||
12:00 AM Army ARMY 221 Notre Dame ND 222 | +12.5 -12.5 | +14.5 -14.5 | +14.5-105 -14.5-108 | 71%26% | ||||
12:00 AM Boise State BOISE 217 Wyoming WYO 218 | -21.5 +21.5 | -22.5 +22.5 | -22.5-110 +22.5-106 | 67%33% | ||||
12:30 AM Alabama BAMA 223 Oklahoma OU 224 | -2.5 +2.5 | -13.5 +13.5 | -13.5-110 +13.5-106 | 67%33% | ||||
12:30 AM Texas A&M TA&M 207 Auburn AUB 208 | -2 +2 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-110 +2.5-105 | 82%18% | ||||
12:30 AM Marshall MRSH 143 Old Dominion ODU 144 | -2 +2 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-108 -2-110 | |||||
12:30 AM Iowa State ISU 171 Utah UTAH 172 | +9 -9 | -7.5 +7.5 | -7.5-104 +7.5-110 | 33%67% | ||||
12:45 AM Vanderbilt VAN 215 LSU LSU 216 | +11 -11 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-105 -7.5-108 | 58%42% | ||||
1:00 AM VA Tech VT 137 Duke DUKE 138 | -2.5 +2.5 | -3 +3 | -3-110 +3-103 | 87%13% | ||||
1:00 AM Cincinnati CIN 193 K State KSU 194 | +7.5 -7.5 | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5-110 -8.5-108 | 67%33% | ||||
3:30 AM Air Force AFA 181 Nevada NEV 182 | +2.5 -2.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-110 -3.5-105 | 43%57% | ||||
+1.5 -1.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3+100 -2.5-122 | ||||||
3:30 AM USC USC 213 UCLA UCLA 214 | -6.5 +6.5 | -4.5 +4.5 | -4.5-110 +4.5-108 | 75%25% | ||||
-10.5 +10.5 | -10.5 +10.5 | -10.5-106 +10.5-105 | 43%54% | |||||
-8.5 +8.5 | -6 +6 | -6-108 +6-105 | 49%49% | |||||
+4.5 -4.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-108 -1-110 | 55%43% | |||||
+2.5 -2.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-108 -1-105 | 72%26% | |||||
-1.5 +1.5 | +1 -1 | +1-109 -1-108 | 53%46% |
A lot of factors are considered by expert NCAAF bettors, both in terms of on-field performance and the betting market. For example, many smart bettors are keenly aware of line movement and which sportsbooks post the best prices. But one of the most important factors is building out NCAAF projections that can be measured against lines in the market.
How NCAAF Projections Work
There are many ways to build NCAAF projections, be it with a statistical model, using the betting market as a guide, or something else. And even within a statistical model, college football handicappers can vary in how they approach building it, focusing on team performance, player performance, or perhaps a hybrid blend of both.
At The Action Network, our NCAAF projections are projection blends of several of our key betting experts. How they approach their final numbers on a game might vary, but the blend of those projections work to create a better, composite number that is our best reflection of what to expect in a game.
We project the three big markets in NCAAF betting -- spreads, over/unders, and moneylines -- and do so for every game in each season. Within our PRO Report -- part of our PRO subscription -- we'll measure those projections against lines for every U.S. book, so you can easily spot edges and potential bets.
A lot of our experts rely on advanced statistics to build their models and get their numbers on games, and of course it's incredibly important when building college football projections to be aware of news and injuries.
The most important position in the football is quarterback, and it's not unreasonable to see a line move 4-5 points or more if a star is suddenly ruled out on a Saturday morning. Other positions are less valuable to the spread, which might surprise a casual gambler. Notably, running backs -- even the very best ones in the country-- rarely move betting lines if they're unable to play for whatever reason.
Using those advanced stats, along with a variety of other important factors like recent play, advantages for a team on offense/defense/special teams, player values, news, predicting home-field advantage and rest situations is how our experts land on the numbers you see above.
The Action Network's NCAAF Projections
Our NCAAF experts will provide consensus projections for every college football game's spread, moneyline, and over/under. On this page you'll then find those projections compared to the market in two ways: 1) the edge, which is the percentage difference between a sportsbook's odds vs. our projections and 2) a letter grade based on that edge.
The two comparisons are correlated, so don't stress about which you use. We show the edge to be transparent for bettors, and some advanced bettors will bet based on the Kelly criterion, which adjusts bet sizes based on projected edge. But if you just want to quickly eye things, the "A" through "F" grades are based on those edge numbers and might be easier to understand for novice bettors. Both comparisons are color-coded with the highest edges and "A" grades given a green coloring while negative edges and "F" grades will have red markings.
Spread projections will be compared to the consensus line in the market, but of course, spread numbers will vary based on the book, so in reality, sometimes your edge can be higher if you find a good number.
If you're unfamiliar, spread bets are one of the most common wagers on college football: They're simply bets on the margin of victory. Say the Georgia Bulldogs have a spread of -6.5 vs. the Florida Gators. In that situation, a spread bet on Georgia would cash if they won by a touchdown or more. A bet on Alabama at +6.5 would cash if they won the game outright or merely lost by six or fewer points.
Note that key numbers are important in projecting an edge in college football. Key numbers are just numbers that a game is likelier to land on because of the scoring in football: A 2-0 game is much less likely to occur than a 7-0 game. That means the difference between 6.5 and 7 on the spread is much more important than the difference between 12.5 and 13. The way we grade our NCAAF projections vs. the consensus accounts for these key numbers.
Key numbers are also important for totals, or over/unders, which are bets on the combined point output in a game. For a new bettor, you'll see a total number posted at a sportsbook and you'll be able to bet the over or under. Say the Oregon Ducks vs. Oklahoma Sooners game has a total of 64 points: Bettors on the under would cash if the teams combined for 63 or fewer points; over bettors would win at 65 or more.
Key numbers are also important in totals betting because, again, scoring isn't by ones, twos, or threes like it is for, say, basketball. Since touchdowns are worth seven points apiece (assuming the extra point is made), total numbers in multiples of sevens and threes are more likely to occur.
You don't have to worry about key numbers in moneyline betting, which is a common wager type just on which team will win the game outright. Everything here depends on the likelihood of a team winning (the odds a book will post) vs. how likely our NCAAF projections say that team is to win.
It's easiest if you think about moneyline odds in terms of $10 or $100 increments. Say the Texas Tech Red Raiders are +250 on the moneyline vs. the Clemson Tigers, who are -290. If you bet $10 on Texas Tech and they won, you would receive $25 in profit. A bet on Clemson, who are favored, would require $29 bet to win $10 in the event of a victory.