NCAAF Projections

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Odds Settings
SCHED.
PRO
Projections
Our model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections.
GRADE
BEST ODDS
Northwestern Team Icon
Northwestern
NW
203
Tulane Team Icon
Tulane
TULN
204
+4.5-106
-4.5-110
4:00 PM
4:00 PM
4:00 PM
4:00 PM
+38.5-108
-38.5-105
4:00 PM
+40.5-105
-42-108
4:00 PM
4:00 PM
4:00 PM
4:00 PM
4:45 PM
+34.5-108
-34-110
6:00 PM
6:00 PM
6:00 PM
6:30 PM
+37.5-108
-36.5-110
7:00 PM
7:30 PM
+13.5-112
-12.5-105
7:30 PM
+31.5-105
-31.5-110
7:30 PM
7:30 PM
7:30 PM
7:30 PM
7:30 PM
+27.5-110
-26.5-110
8:00 PM
+25.5-110
-25.5-110
8:00 PM
8:15 PM
+28.5-110
-28.5-108
8:30 PM
+36.5-105
-35.5-110
10:00 PM
+38.5-105
-39.5-108
10:00 PM
+26.5-102
-27.5-110
10:00 PM
10:00 PM
+45.5-110
-45.5-109
11:00 PM
+25.5-110
-25.5-106
11:00 PM
11:00 PM
11:00 PM
+29.5-110
-28.5-109
11:00 PM
11:00 PM
11:00 PM
+20.5-105
-20.5-110
11:00 PM
+22.5-105
-23.5-108
11:00 PM
11:30 PM
11:30 PM
+14.5-110
-14.5-106
11:30 PM
11:30 PM
11:30 PM
+36.5-108
-35.5-110
11:30 PM
11:45 PM
12:00 AM
+43.5-105
-44-109
12:00 AM
+24.5-105
-24.5-110
12:00 AM
+10.5-105
-11.5-105
12:00 AM
12:00 AM
+50.5-110
-49.5-106
1:00 AM
+19.5-110
-19.5-110
1:00 AM
1:30 AM
+28.5-105
-28.5-110
2:00 AM
+14.5+100
-14.5-110
2:00 AM
2:30 AM
2:30 AM
-5.5-109
+5.5-110
3:00 AM
3:00 AM
7:00 PM
11:30 PM
-3.5-108
+3.5-109
12:00 AM
Final
+30.5-110
-30.5-108
Final
Final
Final
Final
Final
Final
+15.5-108
-15.5-110
Final
-4.5-110
+5.5-114
Final
Final
Final
+20.5-110
-6.5-121
Final
Final
+26.5-105
-25.5-110
Final
+36.5-105
-36.5-110
Final
+37.5-108
-38.5-108
Final
+23.5-105
-24.5-105
Final
+18.8
-18.8
D
D+
+16.5-104
-16.5-105
Final
+21.5-105
-21-108
Final
Final
Final
Final
+14-105
-7.5-105
Final - 2OT
Final
+26.5-106
-24.5-110
Final
Final
Final
+42.5-115
-42.5-115
Final
+45.5-110
-45.5-105
Final
Final
+2.5-105
+1.5-110
Final
Final
Final
SCHEDULED OPEN PRO LINE
Projections
Our model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections.
CONS. GRADE EDGE BEST ODDS BET % MONEY %
+6.5
-6.5
+4.5
-4.5
+4.5-106
-4.5-110
Right Arrow40%Right Arrow60%
+16.5
-16.5
+17
-17
+16.5-105
-17-105
Right Arrow65%Right Arrow35%
+12.5
-12.5
+13.5
-13.5
+13.5-108
-13.5-110
Right Arrow37%Right Arrow63%
+8.5
-8.5
+7
-7
+7-110
-6.5-110
Right Arrow32%Right Arrow68%
+33.5
-33.5
+38.5
-38.5
+38.5-108
-38.5-105
Right Arrow63%Right Arrow37%
+38.5
-38.5
+40.5
-40.5
+40.5-105
-42-108
Right Arrow47%Right Arrow53%
-12.5
+12.5
-14.5
+14.5
-14.5-105
+14-105
Right Arrow61%Right Arrow39%
+16.5
-16.5
+14.5
-14.5
+14.5-110
-14.5-108
Right Arrow54%Right Arrow46%
+3
-3
+1.5
-1.5
+1.5-110
PK-113
Right Arrow67%Right Arrow33%
+10.5
-10.5
+10
-10
+10.5-113
-10-105
Right Arrow35%Right Arrow65%
+37.5
-37.5
+35
-35
+34.5-108
-34-110
Right Arrow85%Right Arrow15%
+34.5
-34.5
+38.5
-38.5
+38-110
-38.5-105
Right Arrow80%Right Arrow20%
+25.5
-25.5
+26.5
-26.5
+26.5-106
-26-110
Right Arrow81%Right Arrow19%
+23.5
-23.5
+24
-24
+23.5-105
-24.5-102
Right Arrow43%Right Arrow57%
+40.5
-40.5
+37.5
-37.5
+37.5-108
-36.5-110
+16.5
-16.5
+15.5
-15.5
+16.5-113
-14.5-110
Right Arrow27%Right Arrow73%
+10.5
-10.5
+12.5
-12.5
+13.5-112
-12.5-105
Right Arrow21%Right Arrow79%
+30.5
-30.5
+31.5
-31.5
+31.5-105
-31.5-110
Right Arrow86%Right Arrow14%
-12.5
+12.5
-14
+14
-14-110
+13.5-102
Right Arrow77%Right Arrow23%
+45.5
-45.5
+42.5
-42.5
+42-109
-42.5-105
Right Arrow67%Right Arrow33%
-1.5
+1.5
-1.5
+1.5
-2-105
+3-110
Right Arrow81%Right Arrow19%
+39.5
-39.5
+38.5
-38.5
+38.5-108
-38.5-105
Right Arrow51%Right Arrow49%
+27.5
-27.5
+27
-27
+27.5-110
-26.5-110
Right Arrow39%Right Arrow61%
+26.5
-26.5
+25.5
-25.5
+25.5-110
-25.5-110
Right Arrow83%Right Arrow17%
+40.5
-40.5
+46.5
-46.5
+46.5-110
-47-109
Right Arrow80%Right Arrow20%
+23.5
-23.5
+28.5
-28.5
+28.5-110
-28.5-108
Right Arrow81%Right Arrow19%
+35.5
-35.5
+36
-36
+36.5-105
-35.5-110
Right Arrow53%Right Arrow47%
+32.5
-32.5
+39
-39
+38.5-105
-39.5-108
Right Arrow75%Right Arrow25%
+21.5
-21.5
+27
-27
+26.5-102
-27.5-110
Right Arrow66%Right Arrow34%
+12.5
-12.5
+13.5
-13.5
+13.5-108
-13.5-110
Right Arrow50%Right Arrow50%
+45.5
-45.5
+45.5
-45.5
+45.5-110
-45.5-109
+30.5
-30.5
+25.5
-25.5
+25.5-110
-25.5-106
Right Arrow48%Right Arrow52%
+35.5
-35.5
+38
-38
+37-109
-38.5+105
Right Arrow70%Right Arrow30%
+11.5
-11.5
+14.5
-14.5
+15.5-110
-14.5-110
+27.5
-27.5
+29
-29
+29.5-110
-28.5-109
Right Arrow88%Right Arrow12%
+28.5
-28.5
+28.5
-28.5
+28.5-110
-28.5-109
+10.5
-10.5
+13
-13
+13.5+100
-12.5-113
+22.5
-22.5
+20.5
-20.5
+20.5-105
-20.5-110
Right Arrow78%Right Arrow22%
+20.5
-20.5
+23.5
-23.5
+22.5-105
-23.5-108
Right Arrow42%Right Arrow58%
+3
-3
+4
-4
+4.5-114
-4-110
Right Arrow57%Right Arrow43%
+52.5
-52.5
+52.5
-52.5
+49.5+105
-52.5-110
+14.5
-14.5
+14.5
-14.5
+14.5-110
-14.5-106
+3.5
-3.5
+6
-6
+5.5+100
-6-110
Right Arrow36%Right Arrow64%
+34.5
-34.5
+34.5
-34.5
+34.5-105
-34.5-110
Right Arrow60%Right Arrow40%
+32.5
-32.5
+36.5
-36.5
+36.5-108
-35.5-110
Right Arrow50%Right Arrow50%
+36.5
-36.5
+34.5
-34.5
+33.5-105
-34.5-105
Right Arrow61%Right Arrow39%
+4.5
-4.5
+5
-5
+5-105
-4-108
+28.5
-28.5
+44
-44
+43.5-105
-44-109
Right Arrow72%Right Arrow28%
+23.5
-23.5
+24.5
-24.5
+24.5-105
-24.5-110
Right Arrow60%Right Arrow40%
+14.5
-14.5
+10.5
-10.5
+10.5-105
-11.5-105
Right Arrow57%Right Arrow43%
+14
-14
+13.5
-13.5
+13.5+100
-14-105
+46.5
-46.5
+50
-50
+50.5-110
-49.5-106
Right Arrow70%Right Arrow30%
+19.5
-19.5
+19.5
-19.5
+19.5-110
-19.5-110
Right Arrow83%Right Arrow17%
+2.5
-2.5
-1.5
+1.5
-1.5-110
+2.5-110
+28.5
-28.5
+28.5
-28.5
+28.5-105
-28.5-110
Right Arrow57%Right Arrow43%
+11.5
-11.5
+14.5
-14.5
+14.5+100
-14.5-110
Right Arrow26%Right Arrow74%
+2.5
-2.5
+1.5
-1.5
+2-110
-1.5-110
Right Arrow40%Right Arrow60%
+13.5
-13.5
+16.5
-16.5
+16.5+100
-17-110
Right Arrow48%Right Arrow52%
-4.5
+4.5
-5.5
+5.5
-5.5-109
+5.5-110
Right Arrow51%Right Arrow49%
+19.5
-19.5
+21.5
-21.5
+21.5-108
-21.5-110
Right Arrow65%Right Arrow35%
+9.5
-9.5
+7.5
-7.5
+8-114
-7-115
Right Arrow23%Right Arrow77%
-3
+3
-3
+3
-3-109
+2.5+110
Right Arrow73%Right Arrow27%
-3
+3
-3.5
+3.5
-3.5-108
+3.5-109
Right Arrow44%Right Arrow56%
+3.5
-3.5
+3
-3
+2.5+102
-3-105
Right Arrow41%Right Arrow59%
+21.5
-21.5
+30.5
-30.5
+30.5-110
-30.5-108
Right Arrow30%Right Arrow70%
+14
-14
+14
-14
+13.5-102
-14-108
Right Arrow27%Right Arrow73%
+9.5
-9.5
+10
-10
+10-110
-10.5-102
Right Arrow54%Right Arrow46%
-1.5
+1.5
+2.5
-2.5
+2.5-112
-1.5-118
Right Arrow47%Right Arrow53%
-9.5
+9.5
-4.5
+4.5
-4-110
+6-110
Right Arrow58%Right Arrow42%
+16.5
-16.5
+21.5
-21.5
+21.5-110
-21.5-105
Right Arrow9%Right Arrow91%
+15.5-108
-15.5-110
Right Arrow52%
-8.5
+8.5
-4.5
+4.5
-4.5-110
+5.5-114
Right Arrow41%Right Arrow59%
+32.5
-32.5
+30.5
-30.5
+30.5-110
-31-108
Right Arrow9%Right Arrow91%
+21.5
-21.5
+30.5
-30.5
+30.5-105
-30.5-110
Right Arrow40%Right Arrow60%
+16.5
-16.5
+20.5
-20.5
+20.5-110
-6.5-121
Right Arrow81%Right Arrow19%
+12.5
-12.5
+13.5
-13.5
+13.5-104
-13.5-110
Right Arrow88%Right Arrow12%
+22.5
-22.5
+26.5
-26.5
+26.5-105
-25.5-110
Right Arrow20%Right Arrow80%
+29.5
-29.5
+36.5
-36.5
+36.5-105
-36.5-110
Right Arrow9%Right Arrow91%
+36.5
-36.5
+38.5
-38.5
+37.5-108
-38.5-108
Right Arrow90%Right Arrow10%
+23.5
-23.5
+23.5
-23.5
+23.5-105
-24.5-105
Right Arrow31%Right Arrow69%
+17.5
-17.5
+18.8
-18.8
+16.5
-16.5
D
D+
-3.7%
-1%
+16.5-104
-16.5-105
Right Arrow84%Right Arrow16%
83%
17%
+17.5
-17.5
+21.5
-21.5
+21.5-105
-21-108
Right Arrow46%Right Arrow54%
+17.5
-17.5
+18.5
-18.5
+18.5-110
-18.5-106
Right Arrow79%Right Arrow21%
-6.5
+6.5
-6
+6
-6-108
+6.5-109
Right Arrow49%Right Arrow51%
+12.5
-12.5
+19.5
-19.5
+20.5-110
-18.5-113
Right Arrow7%Right Arrow93%
+18.5
-18.5
+14
-14
+14-105
-7.5-105
Right Arrow28%Right Arrow72%
-8.5
+8.5
-3
+3
-3-110
+3.5-115
Right Arrow58%Right Arrow42%
+30.5
-30.5
+26.5
-26.5
+26.5-106
-24.5-110
Right Arrow84%Right Arrow16%
+17.5
-17.5
+18.5
-18.5
+19-110
-18.5-108
Right Arrow69%Right Arrow31%
+17.5
-17.5
+21.5
-21.5
+21.5-108
-21.5-110
Right Arrow69%Right Arrow31%
+39.5
-39.5
+48.5
-48.5
+42.5-115
-42.5-115
Right Arrow81%Right Arrow19%
+46.5
-46.5
+45.5
-45.5
+45.5-110
-45.5-105
Right Arrow84%Right Arrow16%
-4.5
+4.5
-3
+3
+6.5-120
+3.5-106
Right Arrow40%Right Arrow60%
-2.5
+2.5
-1
+1
+2.5-105
+1.5-110
Right Arrow36%Right Arrow64%
-13.5
+13.5
-9
+9
-8.5-112
+9.5-108
Right Arrow46%Right Arrow54%
+10.5
-10.5
+14
-14
+14+100
-14.5-104
Right Arrow36%Right Arrow64%

A lot of factors are considered by expert NCAAF bettors, both in terms of on-field performance and the betting market. For example, many smart bettors are keenly aware of line movement and which sportsbooks post the best prices. But one of the most important factors is building out NCAAF projections that can be measured against lines in the market.

How NCAAF Projections Work

There are many ways to build NCAAF projections, be it with a statistical model, using the betting market as a guide, or something else. And even within a statistical model, college football handicappers can vary in how they approach building it, focusing on team performance, player performance, or perhaps a hybrid blend of both.

At The Action Network, our NCAAF projections are projection blends of several of our key betting experts. How they approach their final numbers on a game might vary, but the blend of those projections work to create a better, composite number that is our best reflection of what to expect in a game.

We project the three big markets in NCAAF betting -- spreads, over/unders, and moneylines -- and do so for every game in each season. Within our PRO Report -- part of our PRO subscription -- we'll measure those projections against lines for every U.S. book, so you can easily spot edges and potential bets.

A lot of our experts rely on advanced statistics to build their models and get their numbers on games, and of course it's incredibly important when building college football projections to be aware of news and injuries.

The most important position in the football is quarterback, and it's not unreasonable to see a line move 4-5 points or more if a star is suddenly ruled out on a Saturday morning. Other positions are less valuable to the spread, which might surprise a casual gambler. Notably, running backs -- even the very best ones in the country-- rarely move betting lines if they're unable to play for whatever reason.

Using those advanced stats, along with a variety of other important factors like recent play, advantages for a team on offense/defense/special teams, player values, news, predicting home-field advantage and rest situations is how our experts land on the numbers you see above.

The Action Network's NCAAF Projections

Our NCAAF experts will provide consensus projections for every college football game's spread, moneyline, and over/under. On this page you'll then find those projections compared to the market in two ways: 1) the edge, which is the percentage difference between a sportsbook's odds vs. our projections and 2) a letter grade based on that edge.

The two comparisons are correlated, so don't stress about which you use. We show the edge to be transparent for bettors, and some advanced bettors will bet based on the Kelly criterion, which adjusts bet sizes based on projected edge. But if you just want to quickly eye things, the "A" through "F" grades are based on those edge numbers and might be easier to understand for novice bettors. Both comparisons are color-coded with the highest edges and "A" grades given a green coloring while negative edges and "F" grades will have red markings.

Spread projections will be compared to the consensus line in the market, but of course, spread numbers will vary based on the book, so in reality, sometimes your edge can be higher if you find a good number.

If you're unfamiliar, spread bets are one of the most common wagers on college football: They're simply bets on the margin of victory. Say the Georgia Bulldogs have a spread of -6.5 vs. the Florida Gators. In that situation, a spread bet on Georgia would cash if they won by a touchdown or more. A bet on Alabama at +6.5 would cash if they won the game outright or merely lost by six or fewer points.

Note that key numbers are important in projecting an edge in college football. Key numbers are just numbers that a game is likelier to land on because of the scoring in football: A 2-0 game is much less likely to occur than a 7-0 game. That means the difference between 6.5 and 7 on the spread is much more important than the difference between 12.5 and 13. The way we grade our NCAAF projections vs. the consensus accounts for these key numbers.

Key numbers are also important for totals, or over/unders, which are bets on the combined point output in a game. For a new bettor, you'll see a total number posted at a sportsbook and you'll be able to bet the over or under. Say the Oregon Ducks vs. Oklahoma Sooners game has a total of 64 points: Bettors on the under would cash if the teams combined for 63 or fewer points; over bettors would win at 65 or more.

Key numbers are also important in totals betting because, again, scoring isn't by ones, twos, or threes like it is for, say, basketball. Since touchdowns are worth seven points apiece (assuming the extra point is made), total numbers in multiples of sevens and threes are more likely to occur.

You don't have to worry about key numbers in moneyline betting, which is a common wager type just on which team will win the game outright. Everything here depends on the likelihood of a team winning (the odds a book will post) vs. how likely our NCAAF projections say that team is to win.

It's easiest if you think about moneyline odds in terms of $10 or $100 increments. Say the Texas Tech Red Raiders are +250 on the moneyline vs. the Clemson Tigers, who are -290. If you bet $10 on Texas Tech and they won, you would receive $25 in profit. A bet on Clemson, who are favored, would require $29 bet to win $10 in the event of a victory.

Frequently Asked Questions
What are NCAAF Projections?
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What NCAAF projections do The Action Network experts provide?
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