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Sean Koerner's Picks
Today
Pending
J.Jeudy u46.5 Rec Yds-114
MIN
@
CLE
0.57u
10/05 1:30 PM
I project Jeudy’s median closer to 37.5 yards. This will be Dillon Gabriel’s first career start, and I expect the Browns to lean more on the run in a tough debut spot against a Brian Flores defense. They’re only 4.5-point underdogs, and with the Browns defense facing a Vikings offense missing several linemen, a conservative, run-heavy game plan makes sense. That should limit dropbacks, and Gabriel will likely scramble more than Joe Flacco, which could take away another 1-2 pass attempts.
Some bettors may be playing Jeudy’s over with Cedric Tillman out, but that likely just means rookie Isaiah Bond sees more snaps. Bond has actually posted a higher target rate than Tillman, so Jeudy may not see much of a bump. This is also a tough matchup against a zone-heavy defense that should funnel more targets to David Njoku and Harold Fannin Jr. Jeudy’s numbers take a big hit against zone: a 13% target rate and 0.44 yards per route run, compared to 23% and 1.21 vs. man.
I considered overs on Bond or Fannin, but the market is efficient there and both face the same run-heavy game environment. Jeudy, though, checks the boxes for a fade, making his under my favorite angle in this matchup.
185
N.Collins u74.5 Rec Yds-113
HOU
@
BAL
0.57u
10/05 5:00 PM
Trust me, I know how good Nico is and the injuries in the Ravens secondary (which is why his prop has been bumped up a handful of yards) and that’s the path for him to clear this number for the 3rd straight game. I wouldn’t be shocked if he does. But there are several factors working against him.
Roquan Smith being out is a big blow to a run defense that already ranks 29th in DVOA. That should let the Texans lean more on the run, especially with rookie Woody Marks emerging last week. On the other side, Lamar Jackson is out, so the Ravens are likely to slow things down and improve in terms of time of possession (2nd lowest in league so far). Typically playing in Baltimore would lead to more pass volume for the Texans, but that’s been sort of flipped with Lamar out.
Since Christian Kirk’s season debut, Nico’s target share has dropped 3%. Kirk’s only caught 50% of his targets (70% expected), so some positive regression there could siphon more production away from Nico. Add in kicker Tyler Loop’s struggles with the new kickoff rule (opponents start at the 33 on average, 4th worst in the league) and Houston could see shorter fields that cut into yardage totals.
I project Nico around 5 catches, which lines up with the market. Using his 2 year average of nearly 15 yards per reception, he comes out closer to 75 yards (i.e. the market’s back of the napkin math to arrive at this number). In 10,000 sims, he stays under 74.5 about 60% of the time (his median being closer to 66.5). Sure, he has his share of 100+ yard games in there (I can literally see them in the sim lol), but overall this line is a little too high.
This isn’t “Nico sucks, fade Nico.” There are just a few factors in play here the market might be overlooking.
108
C.Rodriguez First Touchdown Scorer Yes+1500
WAS
@
LAC
0.1u
10/05 8:25 PM
This was my favorite bet from the TD show (out now). The last two games (since Ekeler went down) the Commanders RB rotation has been straightforward: CRod is the lead early down back on the first two drives then backs up Bill on early downs the rest of the game. As a result, he’s seen 40% of his rush attempts in the 1st quarter and makes him a sneaky value in the 1st TD market. Projecting his fair odds closer to +950 based on his heavy 1Q usage.
138
2-WAY PARLAY-128
0.64u
This will be Monty’s first NFL game in his hometown (Cincy) and will have family & friends at the game, including his sister, who he is very emotional about being able to attend. Dan Campbell is a player’s coach and you better believe will go out of his way to give him more work here (especially around the goal line). This is a situation that goes beyond standard projections and it’s priced high for this reason, but going to parlay it with Lions ML (what could go wrong 😂) because they are correlated and complete the “Monty homecoming special”.
D.Montgomery Anytime TD Scorer Yes-180
DET
@
CIN
10/05 8:25 PM
DET -600
DET
@CIN
10/05 8:25 PM
208
Futures
Matthew Stafford o22.5-114
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Passing TDs
0.57u
Discussed this on The Favorites
70
Cooper Kupp u700.5-114
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Receiving Yards
1.14u
86
Javonte Williams u525.5-115
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
1.15u
48
Jared Verse o7.5-135
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Sacks
1.35u
49
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0-0-0 | 0% | 0.00u |
| Last 7 Days | 7-10-0 | 41% | -1.85u |
| Last 30 Days | 28-38-0 | 42% | -4.47u |
| All Time | 1889-1529-31 | 55% | 217.48u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 1071-853-19 | 55% | 123.56u |
| MLB | 290-245-4 | 54% | 40.18u |
| NCAAB | 262-210-3 | 55% | 28.85u |
| WNBA | 147-118-3 | 55% | 19.47u |
| NCAAF | 36-23-2 | 59% | 6.62u |
| UFL | 5-4-0 | 56% | 0.60u |
| Golf | 0-3-0 | 0% | -0.60u |
| NBA | 78-71-0 | 52% | -1.01u |
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Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.
Specialties
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- College football
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- Player projections
- Have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point