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Sean Koerner's Picks
Today
T.Hunter o4.5 Recs+114
JAC
@
CIN
0.5u
09/14 5:00 PM
One of my favorite angles each year is targeting rookie WRs in specific markets before public perception fully catches up. I don’t always nail the timing.. variance happens (for example, I hit Brian Thomas Jr.’s long reception over 18.5 in Week 1 and it came up short, but that number was too good to last). Sometimes I time it just right, like Justin Jefferson over 21.5 receiving yards or CeeDee Lamb over 3.5 receptions.. props that look silly now. Hunter’s reception line at 4.5 isn’t far off that mold, and I want to buy in early.
He went 6/33/0 in his debut, but the arrow only points up. People may overlook his WR ceiling because he also plays CB, but he gives me early-career Odell Beckham Jr. vibes, and he has the potential to be above average after the catch. Liam Coen wasted no time featuring him the most optimal way.. Hunter lined up in the slot and was schemed touches the way Coen used Chris Godwin or Cooper Kupp in past offenses. He caught three screen passes in Week 1, a predictive marker for a solid reception floor. In fact, all six of his catches came on throws within 10 air yards, which means any downfield grabs will just be a bonus.
Hunter led the team with a 26% target rate (BTJ was 23%, Hunter will start opening up downfield plays for him) and still caught six passes in a game Jacksonville controlled easily, holding the lead for 46 minutes (fifth-highest rate of the week, even longer when you include the rain delay!). Now he draws the Bengals in a game script that should force the Jaguars to pass much more often.
I project Hunter at about 5.1 receptions with a 58% chance to clear 4.5, and we’re getting plus odds to back it.
309
T.Henderson o10.5 Longest Rush-130
NE
@
MIA
0.65u
09/14 5:00 PM
Henderson’s props have been creeping up ever since Mike Reiss reported the Patriots might shake up their backfield usage this week. I think that likely means that Henderson sees more work after playing just 33% of the snaps in his debut, with only five carries. Even in that small sample, he ripped off a 14-yard run.
This is one of the markets I want to get ahead of for him specifically. His rush + rec lines have already been adjusted to where they probably should be, but this specific number feels a little behind. I project him closer to 12.5 in the longest rush market and give him about a 64% chance to break at least one run of 11+ yards.
174
D.Achane o13.5 Rush Att-122
NE
@MIA
0.61u
09/14 5:00 PM
The Dolphins were a complete disaster in Week 1, getting smoked 33-8 by the Colts. Achane was the lone bright spot, rushing 7 times for 55 yards, but he was phased out once the game script went off the rails. Miami trailed for a league-high 56 minutes and ended up with the fewest plays (46) and least possession (21 minutes) of any team.
Before things got ugly, Achane was playing at one of the highest usage rates of his career, which gives him a higher floor in this market than usual. For some reason, the Dolphins are 2.5-point favorites this week. I don’t agree with that (feels more like a pick ’em), but even if the Patriots were the ones favored by 2.5, I’d still expect Achane to dominate early-down snaps in a neutral game script. That’s all that matters here.
I wouldn’t touch his yardage because Miami’s offensive line is a mess and efficiency could dip, but volume should be there. I project him closer to 14.8 carries with about a 60% chance to clear 13.5.
154
D.Hopkins u22.5 Rec Yds-114
CLE
@
BAL
0.57u
09/14 5:00 PM
Hopkins flashed in his Ravens debut with a 2/35/1 line, highlighted by a vintage one-handed 29-yard score. It was the type of catch he’s made many times in his potential Hall of Fame career. But the underlying usage tells a different story. Hopkins only ran 11 routes (55% route rate) and was used strictly in 11 personnel.. a grouping the Ravens deploy at one of the lowest rates in the league. Baltimore leaned on it more in Week 1 because Patrick Ricard and Isaiah Likely were out, and both will be out again this week.
Even so, the Ravens stayed relatively run-heavy in a back-and-forth game. Now, as double-digit favorites, the script points to an even more run-centric approach, which could further cap Hopkins’ routes. He was efficient on limited volume last week, catching both of his targets, but according to Next Gen Stats his touchdown grab had only a 33% chance of being completed. Without that low-probability catch, he would have finished with just 6 yards.
That highlights the volatility here: Hopkins can always pop for a 20-plus yard gain, but his floor is much lower than the line suggests. I project his median closer to 17.5 yards with about a 60% chance he stays under 22.5. Adding to the concern, the Browns’ CB duo of Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome looked excellent in Week 1, and Cleveland allowed the 8th-lowest yards per route run to WRs in 11 personnel.. against the Bengals, no less.
188
D.Sampson u9.5 Rush Att+106
CLE
@BAL
0.5u
09/14 5:00 PM
Quinshon Judkins is expected to make his debut this week, and while the Browns will obviously ease him in after missing all of camp and preseason, he’s still likely to mix in on early down/short yardage work and eat into Sampson’s role there (Sampson was the lead back on early downs last week). The Browns had the 4th highest early-down pass rate in Week 1, and that was in a close game throughout. Against the Ravens in what could turn into more of a blowout, I’d expect a much heavier passing attack, especially with how strong Baltimore’s run defense is. The Browns also ran 71 plays in Week 1, so we should see a massive dip in overall play volume as well.
Sampson should still mix in as a pass catcher.. he was far more effective there than as a runner in Week 1. But if we get garbage time with the Browns trailing big, I think mop-up carries are more likely to go to Judkins or even Raheim Sanders (if active). Typically when teams break in a back, even in preseason, they give them at least 4–5 carries. That’s about where I project Judkins right away, and with the Browns needing to get him up to speed quickly (especially with a potential suspension looming), there’s a good chance he gets more work than the market expects.
If Judkins doesn’t suit up, I wouldn’t play this. In that case I’d pivot to fading Sampson’s rush yards instead. But assuming Judkins is active, I project Sampson closer to 8–8.5 attempts with about a 60% chance to stay under 9.5. It’s a volatile spot, but there are way more outs for his floor to hit than the market realizes.
126
R.Wilson u217.5 Pass Yds-114
NYG
@
DAL
0.57u
09/14 5:00 PM
I think there’s a realistic chance we see Jaxson Dart replace Wilson in-game as soon as this week. What’s “realistic”? Maybe 5%. Doesn’t sound too crazy, right? Even that slim chance gives sneaky value on the under, but I see other paths that help too.
If Wilson plays well and the Giants keep things close, they can run a more balanced, run-heavy approach than Week 1, when they trailed for 52 minutes (4th highest rate) in their 21-6 loss to Washington. Yes, they’re six-point underdogs, but that actually projects them to play with the lead 18% more often than their 2024 average. In that type of game script, Russ would naturally come in under.
The deeper issue is his profile in this offense. He attempted a 20+ yard pass on just 3% of throws in Week 1.. by far the lowest rate of his career, over 10% below his career average. That led to 5.7 air yards per attempt, also the lowest of his career. He’s throwing underneath at a career-high rate in Daboll’s scheme and scrambled on six dropbacks, another late-career high.
The line itself looks inflated. Wilson’s best-case path to piling up yards would be a big negative game script that forces New York to go ultra pass-heavy. But that’s also when Daboll might decide to give Dart his first look, especially in a lower-stakes spot like Dallas without Micah Parsons.
I project Russ closer to 207.5 yards, and with enough sneaky downside baked in, I give him about a 60% chance to stay under 217.5.
239
R.Odunze o45.5 Rec Yds-114
CHI
@
DET
0.57u
09/14 5:00 PM
I was high on Odunze entering the season, and he’s a clear buy-low WR heading into a potential Year 2 breakout in Ben Johnson’s scheme. He should also develop better chemistry with Caleb Williams, who is likely to improve in his own Year 2.
Week 1 was a mixed bag. Odunze operated as the clear No. 1 in this new offense, leading the team with a 23% target share. Still, he and Caleb missed on a couple of throws, including one play that was clearly designed for Odunze but never got the ball because Caleb didn’t trust the read. Part of the issue came against Minnesota’s zone-heavy defense, which muted some of Odunze’s upside.
Against man coverage, though, he showed exactly why I’m bullish. He ran only four man-coverage routes but drew three targets, and per FantasyPoints data, his 1.333 separation score ranked second-highest in Week 1. That lines up with his ability to consistently win vs. man.
The Lions play man at one of the highest rates in the league, and that continued in Week 1 even with a new defensive coordinator. This is the perfect spot to buy low on Odunze, and his yardage prop is the way I want to attack it. I project his median closer to 53.5 yards and give him about a 60% chance to clear 45.5.
339
B.Hall u2.5 Recs-108
BUF
@
NYJ
0.54u
09/14 5:00 PM
Breece is one of the best all-around backs in the league, and last year this number would have been too low. Based on his Week 1 usage, though, it’s going to be much tougher for him to consistently clear it this season. New OC Tanner Engstrand (from the Lions) looks more inclined to use a 2–3 way committee. Week 1 backed that up: Hall operated as the clear lead back on early downs and short yardage, Braelon Allen spelled him there, and Isaiah Davis handled most of the passing situations.
The Jets had by far the lowest pass rate over expected in Week 1, and as long as Justin Fields is under center, this projects as one of the run heaviest teams in football. That setup caps Hall’s passing game usage, especially since Fields scrambles at one of the highest rates in the league. If Davis keeps dominating passing downs, Hall could actually see less work in trailing game scripts..like this one, where the Jets are 6.5-point underdogs.
The ideal outcome for New York is Hall gashing Buffalo on the ground (the Bills just got run over by the Ravens), and if he thrives as a runner, that will cap his receptions upside. If the Jets fall behind, Davis’ role might expand, and Hall’s receiving upside is capped again.
It’s a small Week 1 sample, but it’s already enough signal to take a stand here. I project Hall closer to 2.2 receptions with about a 60% chance he stays under 2.5.
180
A.Barner u21.5 Rec Yds-118
SEA
@
PIT
0.59u
09/14 5:00 PM
In Week 2, I’m usually looking for misleading box scores where the public may overreact, but this one is a bit of a mixed bag. Barner is certainly going to project better than his 0-yard showing in Week 1 (2 targets, 1 catch), but I still think this line is too high.
After the Noah Fant trade and with new OC Klint Kubiak, it was unclear how Seattle’s TE room would shake out. Barner emerged as the clear lead, running a route on 73% of dropbacks. That was expected.. as he is strong blocker with occasional flashes as a pass catcher. But Elijah Arroyo (their 2nd-round pick and arguably the best pure receiver of the group) is likely to carve out more work going forward. Seattle only ran 10 plays on 3rd down last week (2nd fewest in the league), so if Arroyo starts handling more of those pass heavy situations, Barner’s route share could slip. Even if it holds steady around 70%, I only project him for ~2 receptions.
This passing game is funneling through Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who won’t keep a 90% air-yard share but is clearly the centerpiece. On top of that, Seattle looks extremely run-heavy.. they had the 3rd-lowest PROE in Week 1. Even if Barner grabs 2–3 receptions, he still has a decent chance to stay under. His Week 1 aDOT was just 1.4 (3.5 last year), and given his shallow route tree, three catches could still leave him below 21.5 yards nearly 40% of the time.
Yes, a fluky busted coverage could push him over such a low prop, but these are the long-term spots I want to invest in. I have his median closer to 15.5 yards with about a 61% chance he stays under 21.5.
205
A.Rodgers u232.5 Pass Yds-115
SEA
@PIT
0.58u
09/14 5:00 PM
While Rodgers looked like he finally found the right offseason drug cocktail to flash some of his Packers glory days in Week 1, 71% of his 244 passing yards were after the catch, the highest rate of the week He had the lowest average air yards of the week at 4.3 and did not attempt a single pass 20+ yards downfield. If the Steelers repeat anything close to that approach this week, it will be much tougher for him to clear this prop.
Last week Pittsburgh trailed for about 40 minutes, which forced them into a pass heavy game script. As 3-point home favorites here, they should be able to lean on the run more. Seattle should also be very run heavy and eat up time of possession, while their defense should be much better in year two under Mike Macdonald.
I would set Rodgers’ median closer to 223.5 yards with a handful of underlying factors pointing to a lower passing yardage outcome.
236
K.Williams o72.5 Rush Yds-115
LA
@
TEN
0.58u
09/14 5:00 PM
The Rams went 10-7 and made the playoffs last year despite playing with the lead only 27% of the time (6th lowest). As 5.5-point favorites here, I project them to play with the lead at a rate about 23% higher than last season. That sets up a rare positive game script where Kyren’s volume should spike.
The matchup also lines up perfectly with his rushing profile. Williams ran inside on 83% of his carries in Week 1 (2nd highest among RBs). Tennessee has struggled to stop inside runs, allowing the 3rd-highest rushing yards over expected per attempt last season and the 2nd-highest in Week 1. Now they’ll be without nose tackle T’Vondre Sweat (team-best 2% missed tackle rate last season). His replacement, fellow NT Shy Tuttle, was a liability for Carolina’s run defense last season. Both players are central to stopping inside runs, which makes this a smash spot for Kyren.
I project his median closer to 80.5 yards, with about a 62% chance he clears 72.5.
278
J.Verse o0.25 Sacks+116
LA
@TEN
0.5u
09/14 5:00 PM
Going back to the well here since Verse is still due for major positive regression in turning his high pressure rate into sacks. Last week I projected him for 4.2 pressures, he finished with 4 pressures and 0 sacks.
This week sets up as maybe the best matchup I could project for him. The Rams are 5.5-point favorites and, despite their 10-7 record last year, they rarely played from ahead for long stretches.. this should finally give Verse plenty of chances to pin his ears back.
He’ll line up most often against LT Dan Moore, who consistently allows pressure and gave up a team-high 8 pressures in Week 1. On top of that, Cam Ward took a sack on 33% of his pressured dropbacks last week. That rate is likely to come down, but he still profiles as a QB who’s going to be near the top of the league in that stat, which is largely a QB-driven metric.
This looks like a perfect storm for Verse to finally start converting his high pressure rate into sacks. FanDuel counts half sacks, and I project him closer to 60% to record one here.
119
M.Wilson u2.5 Recs-114
CAR
@
ARI
0.57u
09/14 8:05 PM
Wilson’s Week 1 box score (1/5/0) looks worse than it should have. He had 56 air yards on 4 targets, 2nd most on the team, and probably should have walked away with 2 catches for 20+ yards. I do expect him to bounce back with a line closer to that here, but this market still exposes his lower floor.
Zay Jones, who Arizona traded for last year, had a much bigger role right out of the gate than he saw in 2024, which was expected based on late camp reports. Specifically, Jones played more in 2WR sets. In a game where the Cardinals are likely to play with a lead and lean on the run against a weak Panthers defense, we could see fewer 3-4 WR sets, which cuts into Wilson’s opportunities.
On top of that, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride should both see higher target rates going forward. With Tip Reiman out, Arizona is likely to use Elijah Higgins more, and Higgins commands a higher target rate than Reiman. That could siphon an extra look away from Wilson.
Even if the Cardinals dial up another 4 throws Wilson’s way at his 14.8-yard aDOT, it’s unlikely he hauls in 3+ here. I have him projected closer to 2.2 receptions with about a 62% chance to stay under 2.5.
140
Pending
Futures
Matthew Stafford o22.5-114
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Passing TDs
0.57u
Discussed this on The Favorites
70
Cooper Kupp u700.5-114
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Receiving Yards
1.14u
86
Javonte Williams u525.5-115
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
1.15u
48
Jared Verse o7.5-135
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Sacks
1.35u
49
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0-0-0 | 0% | 0.00u |
| Last 7 Days | 2-8-0 | 20% | -2.45u |
| Last 30 Days | 11-21-1 | 33% | -3.24u |
| All Time | 1864-1503-31 | 55% | 218.19u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 1046-827-19 | 55% | 124.27u |
| MLB | 290-245-4 | 54% | 40.18u |
| NCAAB | 262-210-3 | 55% | 28.85u |
| WNBA | 147-118-3 | 55% | 19.47u |
| NCAAF | 36-23-2 | 59% | 6.62u |
| UFL | 5-4-0 | 56% | 0.60u |
| Golf | 0-3-0 | 0% | -0.60u |
| NBA | 78-71-0 | 52% | -1.01u |
On Social
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.
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