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NFL Projections

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Odds Settings
SCHED.
PRO
Projections
Our model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections.
GRADE
BEST ODDS
Fri 8/19, 12:00 AM
+155
-175
Fri 8/19, 12:00 AM
o38.5-110
u39.5-106
Fri 8/19, 12:00 AM
Fri 8/19, 11:00 PM
+150
-155
Fri 8/19, 11:00 PM
o39.5-110
u40-105
Fri 8/19, 11:00 PM
Sat 8/20, 12:00 AM
+140
-150
Sat 8/20, 12:00 AM
o38.5-109
u39.5-110
Sat 8/20, 12:00 AM
Sat 8/20, 2:00 AM
-130
+120
Sat 8/20, 2:00 AM
o37.5-110
u38.5-110
Sat 8/20, 2:00 AM
Sat 8/20, 5:00 PM
-150
+130
Sat 8/20, 5:00 PM
o39-105
u39.5-107
Sat 8/20, 5:00 PM
Sat 8/20, 5:00 PM
+210
-225
Sat 8/20, 5:00 PM
o42-105
u42-110
Sat 8/20, 5:00 PM
Sat 8/20, 8:00 PM
+185
-205
Sat 8/20, 8:00 PM
o43.5-115
u44.5-110
Sat 8/20, 8:00 PM
Sat 8/20, 11:00 PM
+140
-145
Sat 8/20, 11:00 PM
o38-110
u39-110
Sat 8/20, 11:00 PM
+4.5-105
-4.5-109
Sat 8/20, 11:00 PM
+180
-200
Sat 8/20, 11:00 PM
o39.5-110
u39.5-105
Sat 8/20, 11:00 PM
Sat 8/20, 11:00 PM
-120
+115
Sat 8/20, 11:00 PM
o40.5-115
u41.5-105
Sat 8/20, 11:00 PM
Sat 8/20, 11:00 PM
+150
-155
Sat 8/20, 11:00 PM
o41.5-110
u42.5-108
Sat 8/20, 11:00 PM
Sun 8/21, 2:00 AM
+145
-155
Sun 8/21, 2:00 AM
o37.5-105
u37.5-108
Sun 8/21, 2:00 AM
Sun 8/21, 5:00 PM
-150
+140
Sun 8/21, 5:00 PM
o35.5-110
u35.5-105
Sun 8/21, 5:00 PM
Sun 8/21, 11:00 PM
+215
-240
Sun 8/21, 11:00 PM
o38.5-110
u38.5-105
Sun 8/21, 11:00 PM
Mon 8/22, 12:00 AM
-225
+200
Mon 8/22, 12:00 AM
o38.5-110
u38.5-106
Mon 8/22, 12:00 AM
Tue 8/23, 12:00 AM
-125
+115
Tue 8/23, 12:00 AM
o39.5-105
u39.5-110
Tue 8/23, 12:00 AM
SCHEDULED OPEN PRO LINE
Projections
Our model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections.
CONS. GRADE EDGE BEST ODDS BET % MONEY %
Fri 8/19, 12:00 AM
Bears
CHI
401
Seahawks
SEA
402
+3
-3
+3.5
-3.5
+3.5-110
-3.5-105
Right Arrow67%Right Arrow33%
+140
-165
+150
-182
+155
-175
Right Arrow33%Right Arrow67%
o38.5
u38.5
o39.5
u39.5
o38.5-110
u39.5-106
Right Arrow49%Right Arrow51%
Fri 8/19, 11:00 PM
Panthers
CAR
403
Patriots
NE
404
-1
+1
+3
-3
+3.5-122
-3-110
Right Arrow51%Right Arrow49%
+100
-120
+130
-160
+150
-155
Right Arrow31%Right Arrow69%
o39.5
u39.5
o40
u40
o39.5-110
u40-105
Right Arrow46%Right Arrow54%
Sat 8/20, 12:00 AM
Saints
NO
405
Packers
GB
406
+3.5
-3.5
+3
-3
+3.5-120
-3-105
Right Arrow45%Right Arrow55%
+155
-180
+132
-160
+140
-150
Right Arrow26%Right Arrow74%
o37.5
u37.5
o38.5
u38.5
o38.5-109
u39.5-110
Right Arrow47%Right Arrow53%
Sat 8/20, 2:00 AM
Texans
HOU
407
Rams
LAR
408
+2.5
-2.5
-2
+2
-2-110
+2.5-114
Right Arrow22%Right Arrow78%
+120
-140
-132
+110
-130
+120
Right Arrow41%Right Arrow59%
o35.5
u35.5
o38.5
u38.5
o37.5-110
u38.5-110
Right Arrow67%Right Arrow33%
Sat 8/20, 5:00 PM
Lions
DET
409
Colts
IND
410
+1
-1
-3
+3
-3-105
+3.5-120
Right Arrow18%Right Arrow82%
-105
-115
-155
+130
-150
+130
Right Arrow32%Right Arrow68%
o39.5
u39.5
o39
u39
o39-105
u39.5-107
Right Arrow28%Right Arrow72%
Sat 8/20, 5:00 PM
Broncos
DEN
411
Bills
BUF
412
-1.5
+1.5
+6
-6
+6-105
-6-110
Right Arrow32%Right Arrow68%
-125
+105
+195
-245
+210
-225
Right Arrow21%Right Arrow79%
o38.5
u38.5
o42
u42
o42-105
u42-110
Right Arrow67%Right Arrow33%
+1.5
-1.5
+5.5
-5.5
+5.5-110
-5-110
Right Arrow49%Right Arrow51%
+105
-125
+180
-227
+185
-205
Right Arrow4%Right Arrow96%
o40.5
u40.5
o44
u44
o43.5-115
u44.5-110
Right Arrow43%Right Arrow57%
Sat 8/20, 11:00 PM
Buccaneers
TB
419
Titans
TEN
420
+2.5
-2.5
+3
-3
+3.5-121
-3+100
Right Arrow34%Right Arrow66%
+115
-135
+125
-154
+140
-145
Right Arrow35%Right Arrow65%
o36.5
u36.5
o38.5
u38.5
o38-110
u39-110
Right Arrow58%Right Arrow42%
Sat 8/20, 11:00 PM
49ers
SF
421
Vikings
MIN
422
-1.5
+1.5
+4.5
-4.5
+4.5-105
-4.5-109
Right Arrow43%Right Arrow57%
-130
+110
+170
-210
+180
-200
Right Arrow30%Right Arrow70%
o38.5
u38.5
o39.5
u39.5
o39.5-110
u39.5-105
Right Arrow57%Right Arrow43%
Sat 8/20, 11:00 PM
Raiders
LV
415
Dolphins
MIA
416
-2.5
+2.5
-1.5
+1.5
-1-110
+2.5-115
Right Arrow43%Right Arrow57%
-140
+120
-125
+104
-120
+115
Right Arrow70%Right Arrow30%
o38.5
u38.5
o41.5
u41.5
o40.5-115
u41.5-105
Right Arrow76%Right Arrow24%
Sat 8/20, 11:00 PM
Steelers
PIT
417
Jaguars
JAX
418
-2.5
+2.5
+3
-3
+3-110
-2.5-122
Right Arrow57%Right Arrow43%
-140
+120
+130
-162
+150
-155
Right Arrow56%Right Arrow44%
o38.5
u38.5
o42.5
u42.5
o41.5-110
u42.5-108
Right Arrow43%Right Arrow57%
Sun 8/21, 2:00 AM
Cowboys
DAL
423
Chargers
LAC
424
-1.5
+1.5
+3
-3
+3.5-121
-3-105
Right Arrow22%Right Arrow78%
-125
+105
+135
-161
+145
-155
Right Arrow11%Right Arrow89%
o35.5
u35.5
o37.5
u37.5
o37.5-105
u37.5-108
Right Arrow39%Right Arrow61%
Sun 8/21, 5:00 PM
Eagles
PHI
425
Browns
CLE
426
-3
+3
-3
+3
-2.5-122
+3-105
Right Arrow54%Right Arrow46%
-165
+140
-160
+130
-150
+140
Right Arrow67%Right Arrow33%
o38.5
u38.5
o35.5
u35.5
o35.5-110
u35.5-105
Right Arrow47%Right Arrow53%
Sun 8/21, 11:00 PM
Bengals
CIN
427
Giants
NYG
428
+3
-3
+5.5
-5.5
+6-110
-5.5-110
Right Arrow73%Right Arrow27%
+140
-165
+200
-250
+215
-240
Right Arrow26%Right Arrow74%
o38.5
u38.5
o38.5
u38.5
o38.5-110
u38.5-105
Right Arrow63%Right Arrow37%
Mon 8/22, 12:00 AM
Ravens
BAL
429
Cardinals
ARI
430
-3.5
+3.5
-5.5
+5.5
-5-110
+5-105
Right Arrow47%Right Arrow53%
-180
+155
-250
+200
-225
+200
Right Arrow86%Right Arrow14%
o36.5
u36.5
o38.5
u38.5
o38.5-110
u38.5-106
Right Arrow58%Right Arrow42%
Tue 8/23, 12:00 AM
Falcons
ATL
431
Jets
NYJ
432
+1
-1
-2
+2
-2-110
+2-105
Right Arrow38%Right Arrow62%
+100
-120
-135
+110
-125
+115
Right Arrow74%Right Arrow26%
o38.5
u38.5
o39.5
u39.5
o39.5-105
u39.5-110
Right Arrow15%Right Arrow85%

A lot of factors are considered by expert NFL bettors, both in terms of on-field performance and the betting market. For example, many smart bettors are keenly aware of line movement and which sportsbooks post the best prices. But one of the most important factors is building out NFL projections that can be measured against lines in the market.

How NFL Projections Work

There are many ways to build NFL projections, be it with a statistical model, using the betting market as a guide, or something else. And even within a statistical model, NFL handicappers can vary in how they approach building it, focusing on team performance, player performance, or perhaps a hybrid blend of both.

At The Action Network, our NFL projections are projection blends of several of our key betting experts, including Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Stuckey. How they approach their final numbers on a game might vary, but the blend of those projections work to create a better, composite number that is our best reflection of what to expect in a game.

We project the three big markets in NFL betting -- spreads, over/unders, and moneylines -- and do so for every game in each season. Within our PRO Report -- part of our PRO subscription -- we'll measure those projections against lines for every U.S. book, so you can easily spot edges and potential bets.

A lot of our experts rely on advanced statistics to build their models and get their numbers on games, and of course it's incredibly important when building NFL projections to be aware of news and injuries.

The most important position in the NFL is quarterback, and it's not unreasonable to see a line move 4-5 points or more if a star is suddenly ruled out on a Sunday morning. Other positions are less valuable to the spread, which might surprise a casual gambler. Notably, running backs -- even the very best ones that are popular in fantasy football -- rarely move betting lines if they're unable to play for whatever reason.

Using those advanced stats, along with a variety of other important factors like recent play, advantages for a team on offense/defense/special teams, player values, news, predicting home-field advantage and rest situations is how our experts land on the numbers you see above.

The Action Network's NFL Projections

Our NFL experts will provide consensus projections for every NFL game's spread, moneyline, and over/under. On this page you'll then find those projections compared to the market in two ways: 1) the edge, which is the percentage difference between a sportsbook's odds vs. our projections and 2) a letter grade based on that edge.

The two comparisons are correlated, so don't stress about which you use. We show the edge to be transparent for bettors, and some advanced bettors will bet based on the Kelly criterion, which adjusts bet sizes based on projected edge. But if you just want to quickly eye things, the "A" through "F" grades are based on those edge numbers and might be easier to understand for novice bettors. Both comparisons are color-coded with the highest edges and "A" grades given a green coloring while negative edges and "F" grades will have red markings.

Spread projections will be compared to the consensus line in the market, but of course, spread numbers will vary based on the book, so in reality, sometimes your edge can be higher if you find a good number.

If you're unfamiliar, spread bets are one of the most common wagers on the NFL: They're simply bets on the margin of victory. Say the Baltimore Ravens have a spread of -6.5 vs. the Arizona Cardinals. In that situation, a spread bet on the Ravens would cash if Baltimore won by a touchdown or more. A bet on the Cardinals at +6.5 would cash if the Cardinals won the game outright or merely lost by six or fewer points.

Note that key numbers are important in projecting an edge in the NFL. Key numbers are just numbers that a game is likelier to land on because of the scoring in football: A 2-0 game is much less likely to occur than a 7-0 game. That means the difference between 6.5 and 7 on the spread is much more important than the difference between 12.5 and 13. The way we grade our NFL projections vs. the consensus accounts for these key numbers.

Key numbers are also important for totals, or over/unders, which are bets on the combined point output in a game. For a new bettor, you'll see a total number posted at a sportsbook and you'll be able to bet the over or under. Say the Tennessee Titans vs. Philadelphia Eagles game has a total of 47 points: Bettors on the under would cash if the teams combined for 46 or fewer points; over bettors would win at 48 or more.

Key numbers are also important in totals betting because, again, scoring isn't by ones, twos, or threes like it is for, say, basketball. Since touchdowns are worth seven points apiece (assuming the extra point is made), total numbers in multiples of sevens and threes are more likely to occur.

You don't have to worry about key numbers in moneyline betting, which is a common wager type just on which team will win the game outright. Everything here depends on the likelihood of a team winning (the odds a book will post) vs. how likely our NFL projections say that team is to win.

It's easiest if you think about moneyline odds in terms of $10 or $100 increments. Say the Detroit Lions are +250 on the moneyline vs. the Chicago Bears, who are -290. If you bet $10 on the Lions and they won, you would receive $25 in profit. A bet on the Bears, who are favored, would require $29 bet to win $10 in the event of a victory.

Frequently Asked Questions
What are NFL projections?
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What NFL projections do The Action Network experts provide?
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