Dayton has struggled on the road this season, going 0-2 both straight up and against the spread, despite being favored in both matchups. Their issues extend to conference play, where they’re 0-5 ATS and particularly weak in defending the perimeter, ranking last in three-point defense in A-10 play. Meanwhile, Duquesne has turned their season around, winning seven of their last eight games and shooting effectively—54% overall and 81% from the free-throw line over their last three contests. The Dukes also dominate the offensive boards and attempt the most three-pointers in the conference. While Dayton has the more talented roster, Duquesne’s recent form, highlighted by a big win over St. Bonaventure, makes them a strong play as home underdogs, especially at +3 or more.

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