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I’m a little confused by this number. I have these teams almost identically rated, yet we’re getting a 5.5 point spread. To make things even more perplexing, almost every Iowa player will be available with no opt outs. Conversely, Vanderbilt will be without Eli Stowers, their stud tight end, who is opting out for the NFL Draft. That’s a massive blow to the Vanderbilt offense. While fading Diego Pavia in his final career start isn’t the smartest move, I have to play this number. Iowa will hold a major trenches advantage in this game. They have the best offensive line in the country and will be facing a Vanderbilt front seven that ranks 47th overall with just the 80th rated pass rush. The Iowa offensive line should generate consistent push against this defensive front. On the other side, the Hawkeyes defensive line should find similar success against a Vanderbilt offensive line that is simply poor. Iowa’s defensive front ranks top 20 in both pass rush and run defense, while Vanderbilt’s offensive line sits outside the top 90 in every statistical category. The Commodores offensive line owns just a 50.6 PFF pass blocking grade, eighth worst in the entire country. Despite their offensive line issues, Vanderbilt still has Diego Pavia, who makes everything go. He’s led this unit to a top 10 offense. Fortunately, Iowa’s defense is well equipped to slow them down. The Hawkeyes are known for disciplined play and allow the fourth fewest explosive plays in the nation. Iowa’s defense ranks 13th overall and has shown it can stop the counter and read concepts Vanderbilt likes to run with Pavia. The absence of Eli Stowers also removes Pavia’s go to option on third down. While Iowa’s offense leaves a lot to be desired through the air, their offensive line can keep them in any game. The Hawkeyes rush attack is a top three unit in the country and will be matched up against Vanderbilt’s 39th ranked run defense. If Mark Gronowski can generate anything at all through the air, it should be enough to keep Iowa firmly in this game. The real keys here are discipline and special teams play. Iowa commits the third fewest penalties in the country, while Vanderbilt ranks 103rd. The Hawkeyes also boast a top five special teams unit. These are the small edges that decide games. I simply think this is too many points for two teams that are nearly identical in my power ratings. Take Iowa to cover.

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