NCAAB Projections
| SCHEDULED | OPEN | PRO LINE Projections Our model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections. | CONS. | GRADE | EDGE | BEST ODDS | BET % | MONEY % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11:00 PM  Boston U BU  Army ARMY | -3.5 +3.5 | -3 +3 | -2.5-115 +3-110 | |||||
11:00 PM  Colgate COLG  Holy Cross HC | -6.5 +6.5 | -7.5 +7.5 | -7.5-110 +7.5-102 | |||||
11:00 PM  Iowa IOWA 649  Maryland MD 650 | -10.5 +10.5 | -11.5 +11.5 | -11.5-102 +11-110 | 36%64% | ||||
11:00 PM  Citadel CIT 651  W. Carolina WCU 652 | +8.5 -8.5 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-102 -7.5-115 | 74%26% | ||||
11:30 PM  USC USC 655  Ohio State OSU 656 | +5.5 -5.5 | +7.5 -7.5 | +8-110 -7.5-110 | 76%24% | ||||
11:30 PM  VCU VCU 653  La Salle LAS 654 | -12 +12 | -12.5 +12.5 | -12.5-105 +12.5-110 | |||||
12:00 AM  Wofford WOF 659  Samford SAM 660 | +5.5 -5.5 | +5.5 -5.5 | +5.5-106 -5.5-110 | |||||
12:00 AM  California CAL 669  Syracuse SYR 670 | +4.5 -4.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-110 -6.5-104 | |||||
12:00 AM  Austin Peay PEAY  Queens QUC | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-107 -2.5-106 | |||||
12:00 AM  E. Michigan EMU 667  Kent State KENT 668 | +10.5 -10.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5-110 -9.5-105 | |||||
12:00 AM  Buffalo BUFF 671  Ball State BALL 672 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5-106 +1.5-110 | |||||
12:00 AM  Loyola (MD) L-MD  Lafayette LAF | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +3-110 -2.5-118 | |||||
12:00 AM  Toledo TOL 661  W. Michigan WMU 662 | -7.5 +7.5 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6.5-105 +6.5-110 | |||||
12:00 AM  UTSA UTSA 683  E. Carolina ECU 684 | +11.5 -11.5 | +10.5 -10.5 | +10.5-105 -10.5-110 | |||||
12:00 AM  Florida FLA 665  Georgia UGA 666 | -6.5 +6.5 | -9.5 +9.5 | -9.5-110 +9.5-110 | |||||
12:00 AM  North Florida UNF  FGCU FGCU | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5 -12.5 | +12-110 -12.5-104 | |||||
12:00 AM  VA Tech VT 673  Clemson CLEM 674 | +9.5 -9.5 | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5-110 -7.5-118 | |||||
12:00 AM  American U AMER  Lehigh LEH | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5-110 +1.5-110 | |||||
12:00 AM  Furman FUR 657  Mercer MER 658 | +3.5 -3.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-110 -2.5-108 | |||||
12:00 AM  UTEP UTEP 675  Jax State JVST 676 | +7.5 -7.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-108 -6.5-107 | |||||
12:00 AM  Jacksonville JAC  Stetson STET | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5-102 +1.5-110 | |||||
12:00 AM  Alabama ALA 679  Ole Miss MISS 680 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6.5-110 +6.5-104 | |||||
12:00 AM  Wolves UWG  North Alabama UNA | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-114 -1-110 | |||||
+10.5 -10.5 | +10.5 -10.5 | +10.5-109 -10.5-110 | ||||||
12:00 AM  VMI VMI 677  UNC Greensboro UNCG 678 | +9.5 -9.5 | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5-105 -8.5-110 | |||||
12:30 AM  Bellarmine BELL  C. Arkansas CARK | +7.5 -7.5 | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5-115 -8.5-102 | |||||
12:30 AM  Providence PROV 693  Seton Hall HALL 694 | +4.5 -4.5 | +4.5 -4.5 | +4.5-110 -4.5-105 | |||||
12:30 AM  Temple TEM 691  Tulane TULN 692 | -1.5 +1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1-115 +1.5-118 | |||||
12:30 AM  S. Florida USF 689  Wichita State WICH 690 | -1.5 +1.5 | -0.5 +0.5 | +1.5-118 +1.5-117 | |||||
12:30 AM  UConn CONN 685  Butler BUT 686 | -10.5 +10.5 | -11.5 +11.5 | -11.5-102 +11.5-113 | |||||
12:30 AM  Marshall MRSH 687  Old Dominion ODU 688 | -1.5 +1.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-108 +2.5-108 | |||||
+1.5 -1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-105 -1-110 | ||||||
1:00 AM  FAU FAU 701  Rice RICE 702 | -3.5 +3.5 | -3.5 +3.5 | -3.5-110 +3.5-106 | |||||
-1.5 +1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5-115 +1.5-102 | ||||||
1:00 AM  Colorado COLO 699  Texas Tech TTU 700 | +14.5 -14.5 | +14.5 -14.5 | +14.5-105 -14.5-110 | |||||
+19.5 -19.5 | +19 -19 | +18.5-102 -19.5-105 | ||||||
1:00 AM  Troy TROY 703  Texas St TXST 704 | -5.5 +5.5 | -4.5 +4.5 | -4.5-115 +5-110 | |||||
1:00 AM  E. Kentucky EKY  Lipscomb LIP | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-115 -6-110 | |||||
-6.5 +6.5 | -7.5 +7.5 | -6.5-117 +7.5-110 | ||||||
1:00 AM  UAB UAB 697  Tulsa TLSA 698 | +10.5 -10.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5-102 -9.5-108 | |||||
1:30 AM  Michigan MICH 709  Northwestern NW 710 | -15.5 +15.5 | -15.5 +15.5 | -15.5-102 +14.5-105 | |||||
-7.5 +7.5 | -7.5 +7.5 | -7.5-102 +7.5-115 | ||||||
2:00 AM  Missouri MIZZ 719  Texas A&M TXAM 720 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-102 -6.5-110 | |||||
2:00 AM  Stanford STAN 713  Boston Col BC 714 | -3.5 +3.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-110 +2.5-105 | |||||
2:00 AM  Cincinnati CIN 721  K State KSU 722 | -1.5 +1.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-102 +2.5-110 | |||||
2:00 AM  Liberty LIB 715  N. Mexico St NMSU 716 | -3.5 +3.5 | -3.5 +3.5 | -3.5-110 +3.5-108 | |||||
2:00 AM  Creighton CREI 717  DePaul DEP 718 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-115 -1.5+105 | |||||
2:00 AM  Wake Forest WAKE 711  G Tech GT 712 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-115 +3-110 | |||||
2:30 AM  Portland PORT 725  San Diego USD 726 | +1.5 -1.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-102 -2.5-110 | |||||
3:00 AM  Seattle SEA 733  Santa Clara SCU 734 | +13.5 -13.5 | +13.5 -13.5 | +13.5-110 -13.5-105 | |||||
+24 -24 | +23.5 -23.5 | +23.5-105 -23.5-110 | 88%12% | |||||
+5.5 -5.5 | +5.5 -5.5 | +5.5-102 -5.5-110 | ||||||
+1.5 -1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-110 -1.5-105 | ||||||
+12.5 -12.5 | +12.5 -12.5 | +13-110 -12.5-110 |
A lot of factors are considered by expert NCAAB bettors, both in terms of on-field performance and the betting market. For example, many smart bettors are keenly aware of line movement and which sportsbooks post the best prices. But one of the most important factors is building out NCAAB projections that can be measured against lines in the market.
How NCAAB Projections Work
There are many ways to build NCAAB projections, be it with a statistical model, using the betting market as a guide, or something else. And even within a statistical model, college basketball handicappers can vary in how they approach building it, focusing on team performance, player performance, or perhaps a hybrid blend of both.
At The Action Network, our NCAAB projections are projection blends of several of our key betting experts. How they approach their final numbers on a game might vary, but the blend of those projections work to create a better, composite number that is our best reflection of what to expect in a game.
We project the three big markets in college basketball betting -- spreads, over/unders, and moneylines -- and do so for every game in each season. Within our PRO Report -- part of our PRO subscription -- we'll measure those projections against lines for every U.S. book, so you can easily spot edges and potential bets.
A lot of our experts rely on advanced statistics to build their models and get their numbers on games, and of course it's incredibly important when building NCAAB projections to be aware of news and injuries.
It's not unreasonable to see a line move 6-7 points or more if a star is suddenly ruled out ahead of a game. Using advanced stats, along with a variety of other important factors like recent play, advantages for a team on offense and defense, player values, news, predicting home-court advantage and rest situations is how our experts land on the numbers you see above.
The Action Network's NCAAB Projections
Our college basketball experts will provide consensus projections for every NBA game's spread, moneyline, and over/under. On this page you'll then find those projections compared to the market in two ways: 1) the edge, which is the percentage difference between a sportsbook's odds vs. our projections and 2) a letter grade based on that edge.
The two comparisons are correlated, so don't stress about which you use. We show the edge to be transparent for bettors, and some advanced bettors will bet based on the Kelly criterion, which adjusts bet sizes based on projected edge. But if you just want to quickly eye things, the "A" through "F" grades are based on those edge numbers and might be easier to understand for novice bettors. Both comparisons are color-coded with the highest edges and "A" grades given a green coloring while negative edges and "F" grades will have red markings.
Spread projections will be compared to the consensus line in the market, but of course, spread numbers will vary based on the book, so in reality, sometimes your edge can be higher if you find a good number.
If you're unfamiliar, spread bets are one of the most common wagers on college basketball: They're simply bets on the margin of victory. Say the Gonzaga Bulldogs have a spread of -6.5 vs. the UCLA Bruins. In that situation, a spread bet on Gonzaga would cash if they won by a 7 points or more. A bet on UCLA at +6.5 would cash if they won the game outright or merely lost by six or fewer points.
When it comes to totals or over/unders, which are bets on the combined point output in a game, you'll see a total number posted at a sportsbook and you'll be able to bet the over or under. Say the Baylor Bears vs. Arizona Wildcats game has a total of 175 points: Bettors on the under would cash if the teams combined for 174 or fewer points; over bettors would win at 175 or more. An exact total of 175 would be a push and the bet would be voided.
In moneyline betting, which is a common wager type just on which team will win the game outright, everything here depends on the likelihood of a team winning (the odds a book will post) vs. how likely our NBA projections say that team is to win.
It's easiest if you think about moneyline odds in terms of $10 or $100 increments. Say the Ohio State Buckeyes are +250 on the moneyline vs. the Michigan Wolverines, who are -290. If you bet $10 on the Buckeyes and they won, you would receive $25 in profit. A bet on the Wolverines, who are favored, would require $29 bet to win $10 in the event of a victory.