NCAAB Projections
| SCHEDULED | OPEN | PRO LINE Projections Our model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections. | CONS. | GRADE | EDGE | BEST ODDS | BET % | MONEY % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+4 -4 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-110 -2.5-120 | 68%32% | |||||
5:00 PM  Arkansas ARK 601  Missouri MIZZ 602 | -3.5 +3.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-109 -1.5-110 | 76%24% | ||||
5:00 PM  Butler BUT 605  DePaul DEP 606 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5+104 -2.5-113 | 57%43% | ||||
5:00 PM  LA Tech LT 615  Delaware DEL 616 | -2.5 +2.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5-115 +1.5+108 | 68%32% | ||||
5:00 PM  Xavier XAV 613  Villanova VILL 614 | +12.5 -12.5 | +11.5 -11.5 | +4.5+270 -11.5-110 | 49%51% | ||||
5:00 PM  Stonehill STNH  Lakers MHU | +4.5 -4.5 | +5.5 -5.5 | +5.5-102 -5.5-110 | |||||
5:00 PM  VA Tech VT 609  Virginia UVA 610 | +9.5 -9.5 | +11.5 -11.5 | +6.5+203 -11.5-110 | 55%45% | ||||
-3.5 +3.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -1.5-122 +1.5+117 | 28%72% | |||||
+14.5 -14.5 | +15.5 -15.5 | +15.5-105 +3.5-3233 | 53%47% | |||||
5:00 PM  UNC Asheville UNCA  High Point HP | +10.5 -10.5 | +11.5 -11.5 | +4.5+317 -11.5-110 | 36%64% | ||||
5:00 PM  Houston HOU 603  OK State OKST 604 | -13.5 +13.5 | -12.5 +12.5 | -12.5-110 +3.5+426 | 87%13% | ||||
5:00 PM  G Tech GT 617  Clemson CLEM 618 | +18.5 -18.5 | +16.5 -16.5 | +17.5-102 -16.5-110 | 57%43% | ||||
5:00 PM  Notre Dame ND 607  Boston Col BC 608 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -2.5+108 +2.5-122 | 61%39% | ||||
5:30 PM  UConn CONN 619  Marquette MARQ 620 | -9.5 +9.5 | -9.5 +9.5 | -9.5-105 +6.5+156 | 79%21% | ||||
+6.5 -6.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-102 -6.5-104 | 37%63% | |||||
6:00 PM  Albany ALBY  UMass Lowell MASSL | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-105 -2.5-110 | 73%27% | ||||
6:00 PM  La Salle LAS 621  Saint Joe's JOES 622 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5+100 -9.5-114 | |||||
6:00 PM  New Hampshire UNH  UMBC UMBC | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5 -12.5 | +3.5+376 -12.5-105 | 47%53% | ||||
7:00 PM  Sam Houston SHSU 639  Liberty LIB 640 | +3.5 -3.5 | +4.5 -4.5 | +4.5-106 -3.5-120 | |||||
7:00 PM  Cincinnati CIN 633  TCU TCU 634 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +1.5+113 -2-110 | 47%53% | ||||
7:00 PM  Cornell COR 635  Dartmouth DART 636 | -4.5 +4.5 | -5 +5 | -5.5+100 +5.5-113 | |||||
7:00 PM  Louisville LOU 645  Miami (FL) MIA 646 | -1.5 +1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5+100 -1.5-110 | 37%63% | ||||
7:00 PM  SMU SMU 625  Florida St FSU 626 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-107 -2.5+108 | 39%61% | ||||
7:00 PM  Arizona St ASU 637  Iowa State ISU 638 | +13.5 -13.5 | +15.5 -15.5 | +1.5+669 -15.5-105 | 56%44% | ||||
-9.5 +9.5 | -10.5 +10.5 | -10.5-105 +6.5+156 | ||||||
7:00 PM  Richmond RICH 627  Duquesne DUQ 628 | +5 -5 | +4.5 -4.5 | +4.5+100 -4.5-113 | 56%44% | ||||
7:00 PM  Princeton PRIN 649  Yale YALE 650 | +13.5 -13.5 | +14 -14 | +13.5-102 -14.5-102 | |||||
7:00 PM  Wagner WAG  Long Island LIU | +7.5 -7.5 | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5-110 -6.5-127 | |||||
7:00 PM  Vanderbilt VAN 643  Tennessee TENN 644 | +4.5 -4.5 | +4.5 -4.5 | +2.5+122 -4-110 | 50%50% | ||||
7:00 PM  W. Kentucky WKU 631  FIU FIU 632 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | +1.5-133 +1.5-115 | |||||
7:00 PM  K State KSU 641  Kansas KU 642 | +16.5 -16.5 | +16.5 -16.5 | +16.5-105 +1.5-3233 | 55%45% | ||||
7:00 PM  Rhode Island URI 629  Fordham FOR 630 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-112 +1.5-133 | |||||
7:00 PM  Bryant U BRY  Vermont UVM | +12.5 -12.5 | +13.5 -13.5 | +2.5+456 -13.5-104 | 90%10% | ||||
7:15 PM  Stanford STAN 651  NC State NCST 652 | +6.5 -6.5 | +8.5 -8.5 | +9-110 -7.5-122 | 60%40% | ||||
+3.5 -3.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-102 -3.5-115 | ||||||
7:30 PM  Presbyterian PRE  Winthrop WIN | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-110 +9.5-3233 | |||||
7:30 PM  Northeastern NE 725  Drexel DREX 726 | +3.5 -3.5 | +4.5 -4.5 | +5.5-108 -4.5-113 | |||||
8:00 PM  Jax State JVST 661  UTEP UTEP 662 | +1.5 -1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | +0.5-118 +1.5-108 | |||||
+1.5 -1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-110 -1.5-106 | ||||||
8:30 PM  Drake DRKE 739  UIC UIC 740 | +5.5 -5.5 | +5.5 -5.5 | +5.5-106 -4.5-127 | |||||
-4.5 +4.5 | -5.5 +5.5 | -5.5-110 +4.5+113 | 84%16% | |||||
+4.5 -4.5 | +5.5 -5.5 | +5.5-105 -4.5-113 | ||||||
9:00 PM  Maine ME  N.J.I.T. NJIT | +2.5 -2.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-102 -3.5-114 | |||||
9:00 PM  FAU FAU 659  Wichita State WICH 660 | +6.5 -6.5 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-105 -8.5+104 | |||||
9:00 PM  New Mexico UNM 663  Utah State USU 664 | +6.5 -6.5 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-108 -8.5+117 | |||||
+2.5 -2.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-105 -2.5-110 | ||||||
+1.5 -1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +2.5-122 -2.5+113 | ||||||
9:00 PM  Florida FLA 657  Kentucky UK 658 | -7.5 +7.5 | -6.5 +6.5 | -5.5-117 +5.5+113 | 70%30% | ||||
9:00 PM  Wisconsin WIS 671  Purdue PUR 672 | +6.5 -6.5 | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5-102 -9.5+122 | 64%36% | ||||
-7.5 +7.5 | -7.5 +7.5 | -8.5+113 +7.5-110 | ||||||
9:30 PM  Pittsburgh PITT 675  Syracuse SYR 676 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-105 -6.5-104 | |||||
10:00 PM  Utah UTAH 679  Baylor BAY 680 | +11.5 -11.5 | +12.5 -12.5 | +3.5+335 -12.5-106 | 10%90% | ||||
10:00 PM  FGCU FGCU  C. Arkansas CARK | +6.5 -6.5 | +5.5 -5.5 | +5.5-104 +17.5-3233 | |||||
10:00 PM  Wyoming WYO 677  San Jose St SJSU 678 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6.5-108 +6.5-108 | |||||
10:30 PM  Indiana IND 681  Ohio State OSU 682 | +3.5 -3.5 | +4.5 -4.5 | +4.5-110 -5.5+108 | |||||
11:00 PM  Furman FUR 735  Samford SAM 736 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-110 -2.5+117 | |||||
11:00 PM  Marist MRST 743  Quinnipiac QUIN 744 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5+104 -1.5-110 | |||||
11:00 PM  N. Iowa UNI 741  Bradley BRAD 742 | -5.5 +5.5 | -4.5 +4.5 | -4.5-108 +4.5+100 | |||||
11:00 PM  Hampton HAMP 727  Towson TOWS 728 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-108 -6.5-104 | |||||
11:00 PM  Texas A&M TXAM 683  LSU LSU 684 | -2.5 +2.5 | -3.5 +3.5 | -3.5-108 +3.5+100 | |||||
11:30 PM  UNC UNC 685  Duke DUKE 686 | +15.5 -15.5 | +17.5 -17.5 | +17-110 +2.5-1567 | 59%41% | ||||
11:30 PM  Southern Miss USM 747  App State APP 748 | +1.5 -1.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-104 -3.5+100 | |||||
12:00 AM  UT-Arlington UTA 689  Ab Christian AC 690 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-110 +1.5-133 | |||||
12:00 AM  CS Bakersfield CSB 687  Cal Poly CP 688 | +10.5 -10.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +6.5+144 -9.5-110 | |||||
12:30 AM  Queens QUC  Austin Peay PEAY | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-110 -1.5+100 | |||||
12:30 AM  N. Arizona NAU 751  Idaho State IDST 752 | +4.5 -4.5 | +4.5 -4.5 | +4.5+104 -4.5-110 | |||||
1:00 AM  UC Davis UCD 711  UC Irvine UCI 712 | +9.5 -9.5 | +8.5 -8.5 | +6.5+163 -8.5-115 | |||||
+13.5 -13.5 | +13.5 -13.5 | +2.5+488 -13.5-102 | ||||||
+1.5 -1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-110 -1.5-102 | ||||||
1:00 AM  Omaha NEOM 755  NDSU NDSU 756 | +8.5 -8.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5+104 -6.5-110 | |||||
+5.5 -5.5 | +5.5 -5.5 | +4.5+113 -4.5-122 | ||||||
1:30 AM  Oklahoma OKLA 699  Texas TEX 700 | +6.5 -6.5 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-105 -8.5+117 | |||||
1:30 AM  Elon ELON 729  William & Mary WM 730 | +5.5 -5.5 | +4.5 -4.5 | +5-110 -4.5-104 | |||||
-6.5 +6.5 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6.5+100 +6.5-108 | ||||||
1:30 AM  St. Mary's MSM 745  Siena SIE 746 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-104 -3.5-108 | |||||
1:30 AM  Auburn AUB 701  Alabama ALA 702 | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5 -8.5 | +7.5+104 -7.5-117 | |||||
1:30 AM  W. Carolina WCU 737  Mercer MER 738 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2 -2 | +1.5+100 -1.5-115 | |||||
2:00 AM  UCLA UCLA 707  USC USC 708 | -3.5 +3.5 | -6.5 +6.5 | -7.5+113 +6.5-110 | |||||
2:00 AM  Utah Valley UVU 703  Utah Tech UTU 704 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6.5-110 +6.5+100 | |||||
+4.5 -4.5 | +5.5 -5.5 | +6.5-118 -4.5-120 | ||||||
2:00 AM  UCSD UCSD 705  UCSB UCSB 706 | +2.5 -2.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-108 -1.5+105 | |||||
2:00 AM  Morehead St MORE 763  Tenn St TNST 764 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-102 -3.5-110 | |||||
+2.5 -2.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +3.5-112 -3.5+100 | ||||||
+1.5 -1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +2.5-115 -1.5-104 | ||||||
3:00 AM  Sac State SAC 753  Idaho IDHO 754 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-105 -7.5+104 | |||||
3:00 AM  Air Force AFA 713  Nevada NEV 714 | +25.5 -25.5 | +24.5 -24.5 | +24.5-105 -24.5-110 | |||||
3:30 AM  Texas Tech TTU 715  BYU BYU 716 | +2.5 -2.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5+108 -1.5-115 | |||||
+9.5 -9.5 | +12.5 -12.5 | +3.5+376 -13.5-102 | ||||||
4:00 AM  Washington WASH 717  Oregon ORE 718 | -1.5 +1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-118 +1.5-122 | |||||
4:00 AM  Arizona ARIZ 719  Colorado COLO 720 | -17.5 +17.5 | -14.5 +14.5 | -14.5-108 +1.5+567 | 93%7% | ||||
4:30 AM  Seattle SEA 761  Pacific PAC 762 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +2.5-127 -2.5+108 | |||||
5:00 AM  LBSU LBSU 721  Hawaii HAW 722 | +12.5 -12.5 | +13.5 -13.5 | +2.5+456 -13.5-108 |
A lot of factors are considered by expert NCAAB bettors, both in terms of on-field performance and the betting market. For example, many smart bettors are keenly aware of line movement and which sportsbooks post the best prices. But one of the most important factors is building out NCAAB projections that can be measured against lines in the market.
How NCAAB Projections Work
There are many ways to build NCAAB projections, be it with a statistical model, using the betting market as a guide, or something else. And even within a statistical model, college basketball handicappers can vary in how they approach building it, focusing on team performance, player performance, or perhaps a hybrid blend of both.
At The Action Network, our NCAAB projections are projection blends of several of our key betting experts. How they approach their final numbers on a game might vary, but the blend of those projections work to create a better, composite number that is our best reflection of what to expect in a game.
We project the three big markets in college basketball betting -- spreads, over/unders, and moneylines -- and do so for every game in each season. Within our PRO Report -- part of our PRO subscription -- we'll measure those projections against lines for every U.S. book, so you can easily spot edges and potential bets.
A lot of our experts rely on advanced statistics to build their models and get their numbers on games, and of course it's incredibly important when building NCAAB projections to be aware of news and injuries.
It's not unreasonable to see a line move 6-7 points or more if a star is suddenly ruled out ahead of a game. Using advanced stats, along with a variety of other important factors like recent play, advantages for a team on offense and defense, player values, news, predicting home-court advantage and rest situations is how our experts land on the numbers you see above.
The Action Network's NCAAB Projections
Our college basketball experts will provide consensus projections for every NBA game's spread, moneyline, and over/under. On this page you'll then find those projections compared to the market in two ways: 1) the edge, which is the percentage difference between a sportsbook's odds vs. our projections and 2) a letter grade based on that edge.
The two comparisons are correlated, so don't stress about which you use. We show the edge to be transparent for bettors, and some advanced bettors will bet based on the Kelly criterion, which adjusts bet sizes based on projected edge. But if you just want to quickly eye things, the "A" through "F" grades are based on those edge numbers and might be easier to understand for novice bettors. Both comparisons are color-coded with the highest edges and "A" grades given a green coloring while negative edges and "F" grades will have red markings.
Spread projections will be compared to the consensus line in the market, but of course, spread numbers will vary based on the book, so in reality, sometimes your edge can be higher if you find a good number.
If you're unfamiliar, spread bets are one of the most common wagers on college basketball: They're simply bets on the margin of victory. Say the Gonzaga Bulldogs have a spread of -6.5 vs. the UCLA Bruins. In that situation, a spread bet on Gonzaga would cash if they won by a 7 points or more. A bet on UCLA at +6.5 would cash if they won the game outright or merely lost by six or fewer points.
When it comes to totals or over/unders, which are bets on the combined point output in a game, you'll see a total number posted at a sportsbook and you'll be able to bet the over or under. Say the Baylor Bears vs. Arizona Wildcats game has a total of 175 points: Bettors on the under would cash if the teams combined for 174 or fewer points; over bettors would win at 175 or more. An exact total of 175 would be a push and the bet would be voided.
In moneyline betting, which is a common wager type just on which team will win the game outright, everything here depends on the likelihood of a team winning (the odds a book will post) vs. how likely our NBA projections say that team is to win.
It's easiest if you think about moneyline odds in terms of $10 or $100 increments. Say the Ohio State Buckeyes are +250 on the moneyline vs. the Michigan Wolverines, who are -290. If you bet $10 on the Buckeyes and they won, you would receive $25 in profit. A bet on the Wolverines, who are favored, would require $29 bet to win $10 in the event of a victory.