NCAAB Projections
| SCHEDULED | OPEN | PRO LINE Projections Our model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections. | CONS. | GRADE | EDGE | BEST ODDS | BET % | MONEY % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11:00 PM  Morgan State MORG  SC State SCST | -1.5 +1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-110 -1-110 | 53%47% | ||||
11:00 PM  Citadel CIT 679  Furman FUR 680 | +16.5 -16.5 | +15.5 -15.5 | +15.5-110 -15.5-110 | 44%56% | ||||
11:00 PM  Wake Forest WAKE 765  Boston Col BC 766 | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:30 PM  Oakland OAK 681  IUIN IUIN 682 | -5.5 +5.5 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6-110 +6.5-115 | 71%29% | ||||
12:00 AM  N Kentucky NKU 699  Cleveland St CLEV 700 | -7.5 +7.5 | -7.5 +7.5 | -7.5-104 +7.5-110 | |||||
12:00 AM  Wright State WRST 695  IPFW PFW 696 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-110 +2.5-105 | |||||
12:00 AM  Detroit DET 707  Robert Morris RMU 708 | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5-110 -8.5-105 | |||||
12:00 AM  Florida FLA 701  Texas TEX 702 | -7.5 +7.5 | -5.5 +5.5 | -6-105 +6-110 | 78%22% | ||||
+1.5 -1.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | N/A N/A | ||||||
12:00 AM  Illinois St ILST 685  N. Iowa UNI 686 | +5.5 -5.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-107 -6.5-110 | |||||
12:00 AM  Lipscomb LIP  Wolves UWG | -5.5 +5.5 | -5.5 +5.5 | -5.5-114 +6.5-110 | |||||
12:00 AM  North Texas UNT 691  Charlotte CHAR 692 | +1.5 -1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5+102 +1-110 | 58%42% | ||||
12:00 AM  Butler BUT 689  Villanova VILL 690 | +11.5 -11.5 | +10.5 -10.5 | +9.5-102 -10.5-102 | 34%66% | ||||
12:00 AM  Queens QUC  E. Kentucky EKY | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5-102 +1.5-115 | |||||
12:00 AM  Davidson DAV 713  Duquesne DUQ 714 | +3.5 -3.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-102 -2.5-110 | 53%47% | ||||
12:00 AM  St. John's SJU 705  UConn CONN 706 | +4.5 -4.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +5.5-102 -5.5-110 | 58%42% | ||||
12:00 AM  Wofford WOF 703  E Tennessee St ETSU 704 | +8 -8 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-110 -7.5-102 | 67%33% | ||||
12:00 AM  Lafayette LAF  Colgate COLG | +8.5 -8.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5-105 -9.5-110 | |||||
12:00 AM  Maryland MD 711  Nebraska NEB 712 | +18.5 -18.5 | +16.5 -16.5 | +15.5-102 -16.5-105 | 56%44% | ||||
12:00 AM  Mercer MER 693  W. Carolina WCU 694 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5-102 +1.5-112 | |||||
12:00 AM  Omaha NEOM 697  South Dakota SDAK 698 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5+100 +1.5-115 | |||||
12:00 AM  Georgia UGA 709  Vanderbilt VAN 710 | +8.5 -8.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5-110 -8.5-110 | 66%34% | ||||
12:00 AM  Navy NAVY  Loyola (MD) L-MD | -7.5 +7.5 | -8.5 +8.5 | -8.5-108 +8.5-108 | 82%18% | ||||
12:00 AM  George Mason GMU 683  Saint Joe's JOES 684 | -1.5 +1.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-115 -1.5-114 | 47%53% | ||||
12:00 AM  Lehigh LEH  American U AMER | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-102 -6.5-112 | |||||
12:00 AM  Holy Cross HC  Boston U BU | +7.5 -7.5 | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5-110 -8.5-105 | |||||
12:30 AM  Tulsa TLSA 717  Tulane TULN 718 | -4.5 +4.5 | -4.5 +4.5 | -4.5-110 +4.5-104 | |||||
12:30 AM  Evansville EVAN 715  Belmont BEL 716 | +19.5 -19.5 | +20.5 -20.5 | +20.5-105 -20.5-108 | 68%32% | ||||
12:30 AM  Xavier XAV 767  Providence PROV 768 | N/A N/A | |||||||
1:00 AM  Pittsburgh PITT 719  Stanford STAN 720 | +6.5 -6.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +10-110 -9.5-109 | 43%57% | ||||
-1.5 +1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | +0.5-113 +1.5-118 | ||||||
1:00 AM  Drake DRKE 721  Valparaiso VALP 722 | +5.5 -5.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-102 -3.5-115 | |||||
1:00 AM  S. Florida USF 725  Rice RICE 726 | -10.5 +10.5 | -11.5 +11.5 | -11.5-106 +11.5-105 | 67%33% | ||||
+8.5 -8.5 | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5-102 -8.5-110 | ||||||
1:00 AM  GA Southern GASO 729  JMU JMU 730 | +5.5 -5.5 | +5.5 -5.5 | +5.5-105 -5.5-110 | |||||
1:00 AM  E. Carolina ECU 727  UTSA UTSA 728 | -4.5 +4.5 | -4.5 +4.5 | -4.5-110 +4.5-109 | |||||
1:30 AM  UL Monroe ULM 733  S. Alabama USA 734 | +14.5 -14.5 | +14.5 -14.5 | +14.5-105 -14.5-110 | |||||
1:30 AM  C. Arkansas CARK  Austin Peay PEAY | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-106 -3.5-110 | |||||
1:45 AM  Bellarmine BELL  North Alabama UNA | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2-110 +2.5-114 | |||||
2:00 AM  Ohio State OSU 749  Iowa IOWA 750 | +4.5 -4.5 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-110 -7.5-102 | 65%35% | ||||
2:00 AM  Texas A&M TXAM 735  Arkansas ARK 736 | +7.5 -7.5 | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5-110 -8.5-106 | 40%60% | ||||
2:00 AM  K State KSU 751  Colorado COLO 752 | +7.5 -7.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +7.5-115 -7-110 | |||||
2:00 AM  LSU LSU 743  Ole Miss MISS 744 | +1.5 -1.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-110 -2.5-109 | |||||
2:00 AM  Seattle SEA 741  Pepperdine PEPP 742 | -5.5 +5.5 | -6.5 +6.5 | -5.5-110 +6.5-115 | |||||
2:00 AM  DePaul DEP 739  Creighton CREI 740 | +5.5 -5.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-102 -3.5-115 | |||||
+14.5 -14.5 | +13.5 -13.5 | +13.5-102 -13.5-112 | 44%56% | |||||
2:00 AM  Portland PORT 745  Gonzaga GONZ 746 | +25.5 -25.5 | +27.5 -27.5 | +26.5-108 -27-110 | 63%37% | ||||
2:00 AM  UNLV UNLV 747  Grand Canyon GC 748 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5 -7.5 | +8-110 -7.5-110 | |||||
3:00 AM  San Diego USD 755  Oregon St ORST 756 | +6.5 -6.5 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7-105 -7-110 | |||||
3:00 AM  SMU SMU 753  California CAL 754 | -3.5 +3.5 | -4.5 +4.5 | -4.5-106 +4.5-110 | |||||
+3.5 -3.5 | +5.5 -5.5 | +5.5-110 -5.5-105 | ||||||
4:00 AM  Wisconsin WIS 761  Oregon ORE 762 | -3.5 +3.5 | -4.5 +4.5 | -4.5-115 +5-110 | 85%15% | ||||
-1.5 +1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-110 -1-110 | ||||||
+1.5 -1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5-105 +1.5-110 | ||||||
1ST 6:39  Bucknell BUCK  Army ARMY | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5 +9.5 | +3-110 -2.5-110 | 87%13% |
A lot of factors are considered by expert NCAAB bettors, both in terms of on-field performance and the betting market. For example, many smart bettors are keenly aware of line movement and which sportsbooks post the best prices. But one of the most important factors is building out NCAAB projections that can be measured against lines in the market.
How NCAAB Projections Work
There are many ways to build NCAAB projections, be it with a statistical model, using the betting market as a guide, or something else. And even within a statistical model, college basketball handicappers can vary in how they approach building it, focusing on team performance, player performance, or perhaps a hybrid blend of both.
At The Action Network, our NCAAB projections are projection blends of several of our key betting experts. How they approach their final numbers on a game might vary, but the blend of those projections work to create a better, composite number that is our best reflection of what to expect in a game.
We project the three big markets in college basketball betting -- spreads, over/unders, and moneylines -- and do so for every game in each season. Within our PRO Report -- part of our PRO subscription -- we'll measure those projections against lines for every U.S. book, so you can easily spot edges and potential bets.
A lot of our experts rely on advanced statistics to build their models and get their numbers on games, and of course it's incredibly important when building NCAAB projections to be aware of news and injuries.
It's not unreasonable to see a line move 6-7 points or more if a star is suddenly ruled out ahead of a game. Using advanced stats, along with a variety of other important factors like recent play, advantages for a team on offense and defense, player values, news, predicting home-court advantage and rest situations is how our experts land on the numbers you see above.
The Action Network's NCAAB Projections
Our college basketball experts will provide consensus projections for every NBA game's spread, moneyline, and over/under. On this page you'll then find those projections compared to the market in two ways: 1) the edge, which is the percentage difference between a sportsbook's odds vs. our projections and 2) a letter grade based on that edge.
The two comparisons are correlated, so don't stress about which you use. We show the edge to be transparent for bettors, and some advanced bettors will bet based on the Kelly criterion, which adjusts bet sizes based on projected edge. But if you just want to quickly eye things, the "A" through "F" grades are based on those edge numbers and might be easier to understand for novice bettors. Both comparisons are color-coded with the highest edges and "A" grades given a green coloring while negative edges and "F" grades will have red markings.
Spread projections will be compared to the consensus line in the market, but of course, spread numbers will vary based on the book, so in reality, sometimes your edge can be higher if you find a good number.
If you're unfamiliar, spread bets are one of the most common wagers on college basketball: They're simply bets on the margin of victory. Say the Gonzaga Bulldogs have a spread of -6.5 vs. the UCLA Bruins. In that situation, a spread bet on Gonzaga would cash if they won by a 7 points or more. A bet on UCLA at +6.5 would cash if they won the game outright or merely lost by six or fewer points.
When it comes to totals or over/unders, which are bets on the combined point output in a game, you'll see a total number posted at a sportsbook and you'll be able to bet the over or under. Say the Baylor Bears vs. Arizona Wildcats game has a total of 175 points: Bettors on the under would cash if the teams combined for 174 or fewer points; over bettors would win at 175 or more. An exact total of 175 would be a push and the bet would be voided.
In moneyline betting, which is a common wager type just on which team will win the game outright, everything here depends on the likelihood of a team winning (the odds a book will post) vs. how likely our NBA projections say that team is to win.
It's easiest if you think about moneyline odds in terms of $10 or $100 increments. Say the Ohio State Buckeyes are +250 on the moneyline vs. the Michigan Wolverines, who are -290. If you bet $10 on the Buckeyes and they won, you would receive $25 in profit. A bet on the Wolverines, who are favored, would require $29 bet to win $10 in the event of a victory.