NCAAB Projections
| SCHEDULED | OPEN | PRO LINE Projections Our model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections. | CONS. | GRADE | EDGE | BEST ODDS | BET % | MONEY % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5:00 PM UConn CONN 613 Butler BUT 614 | -6.5 +6.5 | -9.5 +9.5 | -9.5-105 +9.5-110 | 74%26% | ||||
5:00 PM SC State SCST N Kentucky NKU | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-107 -7.5-105 | 77%23% | ||||
5:00 PM Penn State PSU 617 Drexel DREX 618 | -12.5 +12.5 | -16.5 +16.5 | -16.5-102 +16.5-107 | 14%86% | ||||
5:00 PM Marquette MARQ 615 Xavier XAV 616 | -4.5 +4.5 | -5.5 +5.5 | -5.5-110 +6-110 | 58%42% | ||||
5:00 PM Vermont UVM Dartmouth DART | -5.5 +5.5 | -5.5 +5.5 | -5-115 +6.5-112 | 45%55% | ||||
5:00 PM Syracuse SYR 601 Maryland MD 602 | +10.5 -10.5 | +12.5 -12.5 | +13.5-114 -12.5-110 | 71%29% | ||||
5:00 PM North Florida UNF Florida FLA | +23.5 -23.5 | +25 -25 | +23.5-102 -25.5-105 | 76%24% | ||||
5:00 PM SMU SMU 609 Boston Col BC 610 | -7.5 +7.5 | -8 +8 | -7.5-115 +8.5-110 | 51%49% | ||||
5:00 PM Chattanooga CHAT 605 Indiana IND 606 | +14.5 -14.5 | +15 -15 | +14.5-105 -15-110 | 82%18% | ||||
5:00 PM Princeton PRIN 603 Rutgers RUTG 604 | +5.5 -5.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-112 -5.5-110 | 74%26% | ||||
5:00 PM Duke DUKE 611 G Tech GT 612 | -13.5 +13.5 | -15 +15 | -15.5-102 +14.5-105 | |||||
5:00 PM Saint Joe's JOES 608 VA Tech VT 607 | -5.5 +5.5 | -4.5 +4.5 | -4-112 +4.5-110 | 39%61% | ||||
+1.5 -1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-114 PK-110 | 53%47% | |||||
6:00 PM Youngstown St YSU USC Upstate SCUS | -8.5 +8.5 | -8.5 +8.5 | -8.5-113 +8.5+100 | 59%41% | ||||
6:00 PM Lehigh LEH Long Island LIU | -4.5 +4.5 | -3.5 +3.5 | -4-105 +4.5-115 | 6%94% | ||||
6:00 PM Maine ME Stony Brook STON | -3.5 +3.5 | -3.5 +3.5 | -2.5-120 +3.5-115 | 25%75% | ||||
+16.5 -16.5 | +16 -16 | +15.5-104 -16.5-105 | 60%40% | |||||
6:00 PM Manhattan MAN Presbyterian PRE | +2 -2 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-108 -2.5-105 | |||||
+15.5 -15.5 | +17 -17 | +16.5-102 -16.5-109 | 84%16% | |||||
6:00 PM Fairfield FAIR 621 Monmouth MONM 622 | +3.5 -3.5 | +4 -4 | +4.5-113 -4-108 | 62%38% | ||||
6:00 PM Lamar LAM Texas Tech TTU | +21.5 -21.5 | +24 -24 | +24-108 -23.5-107 | 92%8% | ||||
6:00 PM Navy NAVY Coppin St COPP | -8 +8 | -8.5 +8.5 | -8.5-105 +8.5-110 | 43%57% | ||||
6:00 PM Quinnipiac QUIN Central Conn CCSU | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +3-112 -2.5-115 | 55%45% | ||||
6:00 PM Hampton HAMP Loyola (MD) L-MD | +2 -2 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-109 -2.5-105 | 50%50% | ||||
+7.5 -7.5 | +8 -8 | +7.5+100 -8-110 | 67%33% | |||||
6:00 PM UMBC UMBC Marist MRST | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-104 -3.5-110 | 73%27% | ||||
7:00 PM JMU JMU 633 S. Alabama USA 634 | -1.5 +1.5 | +1 -1 | +1.5-125 +1.5-115 | 62%38% | ||||
7:00 PM Mercer MER Winthrop WIN | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5-108 -8.5-110 | 38%62% | ||||
7:00 PM High Point HP S. Illinois SIU | -3 +3 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-110 +2.5-104 | 60%40% | ||||
7:00 PM Louisville LOU 643 Florida St FSU 644 | +2.5 -2.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5-102 +1.5-110 | 13%87% | ||||
7:00 PM Jax State JVST E. Kentucky EKY | +1 -1 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-118 -1-102 | 80%20% | ||||
7:00 PM Georgia State GAST 691 Troy TROY 692 | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5-110 -12.5-108 | 66%34% | ||||
7:00 PM St. Mary's MSM 639 Miami (FL) MIA 640 | +16.5 -16.5 | +17.5 -17.5 | +17.5-109 -17-108 | 93%7% | ||||
+6.5 -6.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-114 -6.5-105 | 89%11% | |||||
7:00 PM FAU FAU 635 Michigan St MSU 636 | +12.5 -12.5 | +13.5 -13.5 | +13.5-110 -13.5-110 | 83%17% | ||||
7:00 PM Fairleigh FDU Minnesota MINN | +16 -16 | +16.5 -16.5 | +16.5-108 -16.5-110 | 69%31% | ||||
7:00 PM E Tennessee St ETSU 665 UMKC UMKC 666 | -4 +4 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-105 +2.5-110 | |||||
7:00 PM Chicago St CHS CS Northridge CSN | +20 -20 | +20.5 -20.5 | +20-108 -20.5-105 | 73%27% | ||||
-5 +5 | -4.5 +4.5 | -4-110 +4.5-107 | 31%69% | |||||
7:00 PM Albany ALBY Fordham FOR | +6 -6 | +7 -7 | +7.5-115 -6.5-115 | 50%50% | ||||
7:00 PM Canisius CAN 637 Bradley BRAD 638 | +25.5 -25.5 | +25.5 -25.5 | +25.5-110 -25.5-105 | 86%14% | ||||
-6.5 +6.5 | -5 +5 | -4.5-115 +5.5-113 | ||||||
7:00 PM Boston U BU UMass Lowell MASSL | +8 -8 | +7.5 -7.5 | +8-110 -7.5-115 | 33%67% | ||||
7:00 PM Texas A&M-CC AMCC Houston HOU | +27.5 -27.5 | +29 -29 | +28.5-110 -29.5-105 | 83%17% | ||||
+2.5 -2.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-115 -2.5-110 | 40%60% | |||||
7:00 PM UT-Arlington UTA 645 Liberty LIB 646 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9 -9 | +9.5-104 -9-110 | 54%46% | ||||
7:00 PM Wake Forest WAKE 649 Clemson CLEM 650 | +10.5 -10.5 | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5-102 -8.5-110 | 82%18% | ||||
7:30 PM NC A&T NCAT 651 Arkansas ARK 652 | +29.5 -29.5 | +27.5 -27.5 | +27.5-102 -27.5-110 | 92%8% | ||||
7:30 PM UC Irvine UCI 647 Duquesne DUQ 648 | -7 +7 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6.5-109 +6.5-106 | 50%50% | ||||
8:00 PM Furman FUR 663 Harvard HARV 664 | -2 +2 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2-110 +2.5-114 | 33%67% | ||||
8:00 PM Gardner-Webb WEBB E. Carolina ECU | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9-108 -9.5-105 | |||||
8:00 PM UC Davis UCD 655 Pepperdine PEPP 656 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5-110 +1.5-105 | 50%50% | ||||
+16 -16 | +15.5 -15.5 | +15.5-108 -15.5-110 | 81%19% | |||||
8:00 PM UCLA UCLA 661 UNC UNC 662 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5-108 +1.5-110 | 54%46% | ||||
8:00 PM Bellarmine BELL Colorado COLO | +23.5 -23.5 | +25 -25 | +23.5-102 -25.5-105 | 93%7% | ||||
8:00 PM Austin Peay PEAY Vanderbilt VAN | +19.5 -19.5 | +24.5 -24.5 | +24.5-105 -24.5-110 | 77%23% | ||||
-3 +3 | -3.5 +3.5 | -3.5-105 +3.5-110 | 40%60% | |||||
8:00 PM MS Valley St MVSU Tulsa TLSA | +25 -25 | +25.5 -25.5 | +24.5-107 -25.5-105 | 90%10% | ||||
+1.5 -1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5+105 +1.5-115 | 50%50% | |||||
8:00 PM UC Riverside UCRV 659 UNLV UNLV 660 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5-108 -9.5-110 | 50%50% | ||||
8:00 PM E TA&M ETAM S. Florida USF | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5-108 -12.5-102 | 75%25% | ||||
+5.5 -5.5 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-115 -7-108 | ||||||
8:30 PM Tenn St TNST 671 Morehead St MORE 672 | +4 -4 | +3.5 -3.5 | +4.5-115 -3.5-115 | |||||
8:30 PM Air Force AFA 667 Boise State BSU 668 | +19.5 -19.5 | +20.5 -20.5 | +20.5-108 -20.5-110 | 82%18% | ||||
9:00 PM Idaho IDHO 687 Pacific PAC 688 | +4.5 -4.5 | +4.5 -4.5 | +4.5-110 -4.5-106 | |||||
9:00 PM Lafayette LAF Portland PORT | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-110 -3.5-108 | |||||
9:00 PM Texas Southern TXSO Ab Christian AC | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5-105 -9.5-112 | |||||
9:00 PM Arizona St ASU 677 UMASS MASS 678 | -8.5 +8.5 | -9.5 +9.5 | -9.5-110 +9.5-110 | 58%42% | ||||
9:00 PM N. Iowa UNI 675 Washington St WSU 676 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-110 -2.5-120 | |||||
9:00 PM Villanova VILL 683 Creighton CREI 684 | +4.5 -4.5 | +4.5 -4.5 | +5-110 -4.5-110 | 80%20% | ||||
9:00 PM C. Michigan CMU 673 Arizona ARIZ 674 | +24.5 -24.5 | +28 -28 | +27.5-102 -28-108 | 88%12% | ||||
+7 -7 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6-108 -6-110 | 44%56% | |||||
9:00 PM Samford SAM Alabama A&M AAMU | -15.5 +15.5 | -15.5 +15.5 | -15.5-110 +15.5-108 | 50%50% | ||||
9:00 PM DePaul DEP 681 Northwestern NW 682 | +7.5 -7.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-102 -6.5-112 | 25%75% | ||||
+7.5 -7.5 | +6 -6 | +6.5-115 -5.5-118 | ||||||
+6 -6 | +4.5 -4.5 | +4.5-110 -4.5-108 | 89%11% | |||||
9:30 PM Purdue PUR 689 Auburn AUB 690 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5-105 -9.5+100 | 38%62% | ||||
+2 -2 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-110 -3.5-105 | 33%67% | |||||
-1 +1 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5-105 +1.5-110 | ||||||
10:00 PM N. Colorado UNCO 703 Denver DEN 704 | -7 +7 | -7 +7 | -6.5-115 +7-108 | 57%43% | ||||
10:00 PM South Dakota SDAK 705 Santa Clara SCU 706 | +17 -17 | +18 -18 | +17.5-105 -18.5-105 | 82%18% | ||||
10:00 PM B-Cookman COOK Davidson DAV | +14 -14 | +13.5 -13.5 | +13.5+100 -14-108 | 10%90% | ||||
10:00 PM Colorado St CSU 699 Nevada NEV 700 | +10.5 -10.5 | +8 -8 | +8.5-115 -8-108 | 59%41% | ||||
10:00 PM Queens QUC Ole Miss MISS | +25.5 -25.5 | +26.5 -26.5 | +26.5-106 -26.5-110 | 96%4% | ||||
10:00 PM Lincoln (CA) LINCA E. Washington EWU | N/A N/A | |||||||
10:00 PM Cal Baptist CBU 701 Fresno State FRES 702 | -3 +3 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-115 +3-110 | |||||
10:30 PM Ohio State OSU 707 Kentucky UK 708 | +5.5 -5.5 | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5-110 -8.5-108 | 36%64% | ||||
11:00 PM Jacksonville JAC UCF UCF | +13.5 -13.5 | +15.5 -15.5 | +15-108 -14.5-104 | 11%89% | ||||
11:00 PM Utah UTAH 717 Iowa IOWA 718 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-112 -1-105 | 60%40% | ||||
11:00 PM Green Bay GB 711 Drake DRKE 712 | +23.5 -23.5 | +25 -25 | +24.5-105 -25-108 | 75%25% | ||||
11:00 PM VMI VMI 715 Richmond RICH 716 | +10.5 -10.5 | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5-108 -12.5-110 | 44%56% | ||||
11:00 PM Montana MONT 713 San Francisco SF 714 | +15.5 -15.5 | +16 -16 | +15.5-105 -16.5-105 | 68%32% | ||||
11:00 PM IUIN IUIN 709 FIU FIU 710 | +10 -10 | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5+100 -9-110 | |||||
11:30 PM Temple TEM 719 Rhode Island URI 720 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +3-110 -2.5-115 | 70%30% | ||||
12:00 AM UNC Greensboro UNCG 723 Elon ELON 724 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-115 -1-110 | |||||
12:00 AM K State KSU 721 Wichita State WICH 722 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-110 +2.5-108 | 75%25% | ||||
12:00 AM Akron AKR Jackson St JKST | N/A N/A | |||||||
1:00 AM Oregon ORE 725 Stanford STAN 726 | -7.5 +7.5 | -5.5 +5.5 | -5.5-110 +5.5-108 | 60%40% | ||||
+1.5 -1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-110 PK-110 | 83%17% | |||||
2:00 AM UCSD UCSD 733 San Diego USD 734 | -16 +16 | -15 +15 | -15.5-105 +14.5-105 | 21%79% | ||||
2:00 AM Bucknell BUCK Gonzaga GONZ | +31.5 -31.5 | +35.5 -35.5 | +33.5-104 -33.5-118 | 86%14% | ||||
2:00 AM Yale YALE UTEP UTEP | N/A N/A | |||||||
2:05 AM Cal Poly CP 727 Omaha NEOM 728 | -3.5 +3.5 | -3.5 +3.5 | -3-110 +3.5-115 | |||||
+3 -3 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-110 -3.5-108 | ||||||
+8.5 -8.5 | +5.5 -5.5 | +5.5-115 -5-110 | 44%56% | |||||
+1.5 -1.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +4-110 -3.5-110 | 33%67% |
A lot of factors are considered by expert NCAAB bettors, both in terms of on-field performance and the betting market. For example, many smart bettors are keenly aware of line movement and which sportsbooks post the best prices. But one of the most important factors is building out NCAAB projections that can be measured against lines in the market.
How NCAAB Projections Work
There are many ways to build NCAAB projections, be it with a statistical model, using the betting market as a guide, or something else. And even within a statistical model, college basketball handicappers can vary in how they approach building it, focusing on team performance, player performance, or perhaps a hybrid blend of both.
At The Action Network, our NCAAB projections are projection blends of several of our key betting experts. How they approach their final numbers on a game might vary, but the blend of those projections work to create a better, composite number that is our best reflection of what to expect in a game.
We project the three big markets in college basketball betting -- spreads, over/unders, and moneylines -- and do so for every game in each season. Within our PRO Report -- part of our PRO subscription -- we'll measure those projections against lines for every U.S. book, so you can easily spot edges and potential bets.
A lot of our experts rely on advanced statistics to build their models and get their numbers on games, and of course it's incredibly important when building NCAAB projections to be aware of news and injuries.
It's not unreasonable to see a line move 6-7 points or more if a star is suddenly ruled out ahead of a game. Using advanced stats, along with a variety of other important factors like recent play, advantages for a team on offense and defense, player values, news, predicting home-court advantage and rest situations is how our experts land on the numbers you see above.
The Action Network's NCAAB Projections
Our college basketball experts will provide consensus projections for every NBA game's spread, moneyline, and over/under. On this page you'll then find those projections compared to the market in two ways: 1) the edge, which is the percentage difference between a sportsbook's odds vs. our projections and 2) a letter grade based on that edge.
The two comparisons are correlated, so don't stress about which you use. We show the edge to be transparent for bettors, and some advanced bettors will bet based on the Kelly criterion, which adjusts bet sizes based on projected edge. But if you just want to quickly eye things, the "A" through "F" grades are based on those edge numbers and might be easier to understand for novice bettors. Both comparisons are color-coded with the highest edges and "A" grades given a green coloring while negative edges and "F" grades will have red markings.
Spread projections will be compared to the consensus line in the market, but of course, spread numbers will vary based on the book, so in reality, sometimes your edge can be higher if you find a good number.
If you're unfamiliar, spread bets are one of the most common wagers on college basketball: They're simply bets on the margin of victory. Say the Gonzaga Bulldogs have a spread of -6.5 vs. the UCLA Bruins. In that situation, a spread bet on Gonzaga would cash if they won by a 7 points or more. A bet on UCLA at +6.5 would cash if they won the game outright or merely lost by six or fewer points.
When it comes to totals or over/unders, which are bets on the combined point output in a game, you'll see a total number posted at a sportsbook and you'll be able to bet the over or under. Say the Baylor Bears vs. Arizona Wildcats game has a total of 175 points: Bettors on the under would cash if the teams combined for 174 or fewer points; over bettors would win at 175 or more. An exact total of 175 would be a push and the bet would be voided.
In moneyline betting, which is a common wager type just on which team will win the game outright, everything here depends on the likelihood of a team winning (the odds a book will post) vs. how likely our NBA projections say that team is to win.
It's easiest if you think about moneyline odds in terms of $10 or $100 increments. Say the Ohio State Buckeyes are +250 on the moneyline vs. the Michigan Wolverines, who are -290. If you bet $10 on the Buckeyes and they won, you would receive $25 in profit. A bet on the Wolverines, who are favored, would require $29 bet to win $10 in the event of a victory.