Luis Castillo’s 2.12 ERA hides flaws — .335 xwOBA, 41.7% Hard Hit%, 14.6% Barrel. Only 5 IP last start = early bullpen use. Lodolo’s due for regression. Reds’ pen has 4.44 ERA last 3 games, 4 HR/8 BB in that span. Seattle’s road bats have popped: .284 avg, 1.7 HR/game away. Raleigh, J-Rod, Polanco, Arozarena all posting elite xwOBA. Mariners are 34-13-5 to the Over in last 52 road games. Great American Ball Park ranks top 5 in HR factor — perfect for these high-HH% lineups. Reds scored 5+ in 4 of last 5, and Elly (55.8% HH, .375 xwOBA) and Lux (.328 xwOBA) can torch Castillo. Five of last 7 H2Hs hit the Over, many with ease.

Morton (R) gets weak CLE bats (.215 vs R, 1.2 HR/G). Allen (L) faces BAL lineup hitting just .220 vs L. Both lineups slumping – BAL hitting .200 last 10, CLE .217. Allen holding 3.60 ERA with 54.5% groundball rate over 10 IP. CLE bullpen lights out – 2.25 ERA, 1.23 WHIP over 56 IP, just 1.86 ERA last 3. BAL pen shaky lately (5.62 ERA L3), but season-long 3.59 ERA with minimal HRs. Pace favors low total – slow tempo, few extra base hits. Orioles 4-1 to the under at home. Recent trend: offense stalling early. Morton’s command trending up – 3 BB total last 2 starts. Allen thrives vs low-SLG teams like BAL (.386). Orioles LOB rate 1.43:1 – traffic but not cashing in. CLE weak in RISP spots.

Royals bullpen gas can—4.38 ERA last 3. Wacha (R) shaky: 4.20 ERA, just 5.1 IP/start. NYY’s 10-4 to the Over, avg 6.98 runs in wins. KC only 3.32 RPG, but has pop. Yanks lineup deep—Judge, Goldy, Bellinger. Yanks rake vs righties—.247 AVG, .335 OBP, 6.72 R/9. Royals’ relievers below avg—1.58 WHIP last 3. KC hitters under 5% Weak%: good contact all through lineup. NYY pen solid but Fried likely exits after 5–KC could feast late. Royals' bats better than their AVG shows. KC hit Over in 4 of last 6. NYY 6-2 Over at home. Both teams combined 17 Overs YTD. Yankees hot at the plate—9+ runs in 3 of last 5. KC bullpen taxed, Fried due for regression.

Jack Flaherty: 1.62 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 21 Ks in 16.2 IP. Priester solid—1.80 ERA, 53% GB rate. Tigers bullpen locked in—0.87 WHIP, 2.57 ERA last 3 games. Both arms limit damage, don’t give up big innings. Dome setting keeps offense contained. Detroit offense cooling—.234 AVG, 2.43 ERA last 10. Brewers bats cold at home—.215 AVG, 3.76 R/G. Milwaukee pen shaky overall but rested. Tigers starters + relievers have better WHIP, lower OBP allowed. Both lineups hitting under .250 last 5. Not much power in these splits. Flaherty’s been elite at missing barrels—only 1 HR allowed, opponents .258 OBP. Priester keeps ball on ground, minimizes XBHs. Detroit bullpen allowing just 0.87 WHIP recently. Brewers pen inflated stats, but key arms rested. All signs point to a low-scoring grind.

Burke’s been a liability – 6.08 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, high FB rate, and just 13.3% weak contact. A’s OBP vs LHP sits at .315 despite only .230 AVG – they work counts, hit for power. Soderstrom leads the surge w/ 6 bombs, and Oakland averages 4.06 runs/gm overall, 1.2 HR/gm. White Sox light on AVG (.198 vs LHP) but better early approach – just 6.1 Ks/gm vs lefties. Hard contact from Robert Jr., Vaughn, Taylor can break it open. Oakland’s pitching staff has 4.91 ERA overall – 1.54 WHIP, and allows 1.2 HR/gm. A’s defense ranks near bottom in OAA. Burke rarely makes it deep, and command fades fast. A’s lineup barrels up consistently – 5 guys under 5% weak contact. Sox have some pop in the middle, and this game’s set up for early traffic, crooked numbers either way.

Atlanta 29th in runs/game (2.4), 28th in AVG (.202). Shut out 3x, incl. Sat. Just 7 hits vs MIA, 0-for-9 RISP. Alcantara: 2.94 ERA in 13 starts vs ATL, 3.45 at Truist. Last outing: 5 IP, 3 H, 2 ER vs NYM. MIA scores 3.8 runs/game (20th), under in 4 of last 5. Holmes has 7.20 ERA, but MIA .236 AVG, weak HR numbers. Braves pen solid (2.00 ERA vs MIA), limits late runs if Holmes exits early. Both teams cold at the plate, limited power bats, few extra-base threats. Alcantara 73.9% GB rate, just 4.3% barrel rate allowed. MIA 21-49 at Truist, rarely scores big.

Warriors allow 105.0 PPG in last 5 games. Grizz shooting 35.7% from 3, GS holding teams to 33.5%. Warriors at 112.5 PPG at home — slower tempo. Play-in pressure means longer possessions, fewer transition looks. Last matchup: MEM 44/92 FG, GS 42/99 — volume without efficiency. Warriors D allows just 46.7% FG at home. Grizz 17th in 2P%, under 78% FT. Both teams stall late — MEM down to 28.5 PPG in 4Q. Expect grind-out buckets, fewer fouls, playoff-style possessions. Under is 6-2 in GS last 8 at home. MEM 24-16-1 to Under on the road. Slower pace, fatigue from tighter rotations, and playoff urgency lean Under.