NFL Sharp Betting Picks
If you’re new to sports betting, or specifically NFL betting, our standard odds tables may be a bit overwhelming. This NFL betting guide will give you the foundational information that you need to understand basic betting terminology, interpret game odds, and utilize moneylines to help you make educated NFL picks each week. We will use the odds table for Super Bowl LVI between the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals as an example throughout this guide.
Types of NFL Bets
You should have an understanding of the different types of bets, and the associated payout structure, before playing a wager on an NFL game. There are several popular NFL betting options that you can take advantage of each week to maximize your total payout like:
- Moneyline
- Against the Spread
- Over/Under Totals
NFL Moneyline Bets
Moneyline bets are the most simple as they only require a bettor to pick the team that they think will win a particular game or event regardless of the score or stats. Each moneyline game will feature a favorite team and an underdog team. The favorite is the team that is seen as likely to win the contest whereas the underdog is the team seen as likely to lose. A favorite will be designated with a minus sign (-) while the underdog will be designated with a plus sign (+) in the moneyline. Here’s an example using the Super Bowl LVI matchup:
You can tell that the Rams are the favorite because they have a -200 designation and the Bengals are the underdog because they have a +165 designation. The numbers next to the plus and minus signs indicate the associated payout amount for betting on each team.
In this example, a $100 bet on the Bengals at +165 odds would result in a $165 profit if they won the game. By contrast, the Rams moneyline of -200 odds means that a bettor would win $100 for every $200 invested. Bettors must risk more money to profit when placing a wager on a favorite as compared to an underdog.
NFL Bets Against the Spread
Also known as a points spread bet, or just the spread, this type of wager is not simply betting on the winner of the game, but the margin of victory.
In a margin of victory bet, the favored team (-) gives points to the underdog team (+) that they must “cover” in their margin of victory. Covering a spread simply means that a team has beaten the point spread for that particular contest and the bettor has won their wager. Here’s an example using Super Bowl LVI.
There are two numbers that you need to be aware of when betting the spread. The first number is the spread itself (4.5 in this example). The spread number indicates the points that the favorite must cover in order to beat the spread. If the Rams win Super Bowl LVI by five or more points, they cover the spread. Conversely, if the Bengals win the game or lose by 4 or less points, they’ll cover the spread. If the Rams win by exactly four points, the teams will “push” which means no team covered the spread and you will get the money back that you placed on the wager. In some instances, oddsmakers will set an even spread. This means that each team is given the same likelihood of winning, and bettors simply pick who they think will win the contest. This may be referred to as a “pick ‘em” matchup.
The second number is the juice, or the vig, which is the “tax” that betters pay to a sportsbook to place their wager. In this example, each team has their own juice, meaning that depending on which team you bet on, the tax will be slightly different. The juice is -115 for the Rams and -105 for the Bengals.
The juice works the same as moneyline bets when calculating your potential payout. Betting on the Rams would net someone $100 for every $115 invested if they covered the spread whereas a bettor would earn $100 for every $105 invested on the Bengals if they covered the spread.
NFL Over/Under Bets
Over/Under bets are another popular option for NFL wagers. Also known as “totals”, this bet type requires you to decide on how many total points will be scored in a given contest by both teams combined. It does not matter which team wins or by how much; you are only concerned about the overall point total.
Oddsmakers have set a total of 48.5 points for Super Bowl LVI. Bettors who select the “over” will win if the Rams and Bengals score a combined 49 points or more. Bettors who choose the “under” will win if the teams score a combined 48 points or less.
Over/Under bets also have juice. The juice is the same for both the over and the under in Super Bowl LVI at -110. This means that bettors will have to invest $110 for every $100 worth of profit regardless of what side of the total they pick.
How to Read NFL Odds
Now that you understand the different types of bets and the numbers on an odds table, let’s talk about the different types of odds that you may encounter in sports betting. There are three commonly used odd types:
- American Odds
- Decimal (European) Odds
- Fractional (British) Odds
How Do American Odds Work?
American odds, as you likely guessed, are only used in sportsbooks within the United States. All of the examples used in this guide have utilized American odds, so you should be somewhat familiar with them at this point.
American odds are expressed as either a positive or negative whole number. A positive number (associated with the underdog team) indicates how much money a bettor will collect when wagering $100 dollars. A negative number (associated with the favorite team) indicates how much money must be risked in order to win $100.
While American odds are set up to reflect $100 wagers and payouts, a bettor is not required to bet $100. The odds scale up and down based on how much money is wagered. For example, betting $10 on the Cincinnati Bengals (+165) in Super Bowl LVI would return a $16.50 profit for the bettor if the team won. A bet on the Rams (-200) means a $10 bet would net a $5 return for a Rams victory.
How Do Decimal Odds Work?
Decimal odds is the most commonly used odd type internationally, particularly in Europe. Decimal odds show the total return for every $1 wagered, including the money risked, as opposed to American odds that use a $100 scale. A common American odd line of -110 ($110 risked to earn $100) is converted to decimals as 1.91. This decimal means for every $1 risked, you will receive .91 cents in profit on top of the original dollar wagered.
Favorites are represented by any decimal odd under 2.0 and underdogs are any decimal odd over 2.0. Decimal odds make calculating payouts easier as they only require a bettor to multiply their wager by the decimal odds. Back to Super Bowl LVI for an example:
|
Team |
American Odds |
Decimal Odds |
Risked |
Profit |
Payout |
|
Rams |
-200 |
1.5 |
$100 |
$50 |
$150 |
|
Bengals |
+165 |
2.65 |
$100 |
$165 |
$265 |
As you can see, wager x decimal odds = possible payout. Use The Action Network’s Odds Calculator to ensure that your odds conversions and payout calculations are always accurate.
How Do Fractional Odds Work?
Fractional odds are somewhat less commonplace overall, but are frequently used in the United Kingdom. Fractional odds show the amount of money a bettor stands to win (the numerator) over the wager amount being risked (the denominator). It’s likely that you’ve heard someone say something along the lines of “I’ll give you two-to-one odds” on a particular contest. Those are fractional odds. Visually fractional odds look like this: 2/1. Two is the numerator and the one is the denominator.
The favorite and underdog teams are determined by whether the fractional odds are greater than or less than one. If a team is given a fractional odd whose total is less than one, they are the favorite. A team with fractional odds whose total is greater than one is the underdog. Let’s break this all down with the Rams vs. Bengals matchup:
|
Team |
American Odds |
Fractional Odds |
Risked |
Profit |
Payout |
|
Rams |
-200 |
1/2 |
$100 |
$50 |
$150 |
|
Bengals |
+165 |
33/20 |
$100 |
$165 |
$265 |
Fractional odds can become somewhat confusing in instances like Super Bowl LVI when a team like the Bengals has odds that cannot be reduced down to a smaller fraction. Just divide the top number by the bottom number and multiply it by your wager to get the payout number.
The payouts do not change from one odds type to the next, only the way in which the odds are presented and how the payouts are calculated.
How to Use the Action Network's NFL Odds Page
You will likely notice that moneylines, point spreads, and over/under totals vary from one sportsbook to the next for the same NFL game. It is smart practice to “shop for lines” before placing a wager. This simply means reviewing odds at various sportsbooks to find the one that offers the best payout potential. Line shopping can be pretty cumbersome for most betters, that is why The Action Network has condensed all the major sportsbooks NFL odds on this page for you to review without having to do all the legwork.
Here are a few notes on how to get the most out of the NFL Odds page.
- You’ll never have to guess which sportsbook has the best odds for a given game. The Action Network pulls in up-to-the-minute odds from every U.S. sportsbook and highlights the best odds in green across moneyline, spread, or over/under bets in the NFL.
- The NFL Odds page is customizable to only display the sportsbooks that you have an account with. This helps reduce the “noise” that you have to sort through to make a quick, smart betting decision.
- Sportsbooks offer odds on specific timeframes within a game in addition to just the final outcome. For the NFL, this often includes specific odds for a specific quarter or half. The NFL Odds page allows you to filter between the various market timeframes to bet a game in a variety of different ways as it unfolds.
- Sports betting is not currently legal in every state. As such, The Action Network NFL Odds page will allow you to see the sportsbook odds and prices available to you depending on where you are in the United States.
Other Ways to Bet on the NFL
Moneylines, spreads, and over/unders are some of the most common NFL betting types. There are other options available for those looking for different ways to get into the NFL action.
- Parlay
- Futures
- Player Props
- Daily Fantasy
NFL Parlays
A parlay is two or more wagers that are grouped together in order to create a larger payout. In order for a parlay to payout, the bettor has to win each of the wagers in the parlay. This makes the chances of winning more difficult, but can significantly increase your earnings. The more games added to a parlay, the higher the payout potential.
Bettors can create a parlay by grouping any type of bets together, like a moneyline and an over/under total. Let’s refer back to the Super Bowl LVI chart to create a $100 moneyline bet on the Bengals and a bet on the 48.5 Over.
Here’s how the two bets payout without being parlayed:
- Bengals moneyline (+165) at $50
- The potential winnings are $82.50 for a total payout of $132.50 including the original $50 risked.
- Over 48.5 (-110) at $50
- The potential winnings are $45.45 for a total payout of $95.45 including the original $50 risked.
- A bettor has the potential to win $127.95 in payouts for a total of $227.95 including the original $100 risked across the two separate bets.
Here’s how the same bets would payout being parlayed together:
- Bengals moneyline (+165) AND Over 48.5 (-110) at $100
- The potential winnings are $405.91 for a total payout of $505.91 including the original $100 risked.
As you can see, the payout potential for a parlay is significantly higher for wagering the same amount of money across identical bets. Oddsmakers give you better odds as you add more wagers to your parlay, but remember, you have to win each bet in order to cash out, so pick carefully. Lose just one bet in the parlay and you lose all the money risked.
Need help calculating your parlay payouts? Don’t forget to take advantage of The Action Network’s Betting Odds Calculator.
NFL Futures
Futures bets are exactly what they sound like: betting on an event where the outcome will be settled in the future (not within the same day or week). Futures bets exclusively deal with moneylines. Examples of futures betting for the NFL include placing a wager on a team to win the Super Bowl at the beginning of season, NFL MVP, division winners, playoff teams, and more.
Futures bets are inherently difficult because they require a bettor to predict the outcome of a NFL event without any knowledge of how the season may unfold. As such, though, the odds for futures bets tend to be extremely favorable to a bettor should they win.
Be sure to check out The Action Network’s NFL Futures page to familiarize yourself with the various wager options available for the 2022-23 season.
NFL Prop Bets
Oddsmakers also make lines for individual NFL player performances that bettors can wager on. These are known as prop bets. Prop bets utilize the over/under mechanism, meaning bettors have to decide if a player will exceed or fall short of a projected stat line. Here are a few examples of player prop bets from Super Bowl LVI:
For these props, bettors are given options for quarterback passing yards and passing touchdowns. They must decide if Matthew Stafford will throw over/under 281.5 yards and over/under than 1.5 touchdowns. The oddsmakers set the line for Joe Burrow at over/under 275.5 yards and over/under 2 touchdowns.
You can choose one or several prop bets to wager on either separately or as a parlay. Prop bets exist across positions, too, so there are no shortage of opportunities to bet on your favorite players.
Need help sorting through prop bet options? The Action Labs Prop Tool will help you organize, sort, and grade hundreds of prop bet odds throughout the NFL season. Get access to picks from experts like Sean Koerner to really set yourself up for success in 2022-23.
NFL Daily Fantasy
Daily fantasy sports (DFS) have become wildly popular across the country, especially in states where sports betting is not yet legal. DFS is a great option for people living in a state where online sports betting has not been legalized to still get in on the action week-in and week-out.
There are a variety of daily fantasy sports options. Most people are familiar with traditional fantasy football where they draft a team and set a lineup each week. DFS is different where you can “draft” new players each week based on matchups to compete for payouts. Sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel offer daily fantasy options. Another popular alternative is PrizePicks, which is daily fantasy with a twist that has users competing only against an over/under total versus other players.
Get a competitive edge using Action’s FantasyLabs to breakdown player stats and matchups to set a winning lineup each week.
NFL Betting Help
After reading this NFL betting guide, you should be able to read NFL odds and understand the difference between bet types. Still, you may need a little help making the best wagers week-to-week. Here are a few tools from The Action Network that can help.
NFL Public Betting Percentages
The Action Network collects a vast amount of betting data on every NFL game, including the number of bets and how much money is placed on them. We condense this information into an easy-to-read interactive chart that helps you to assess what bets are most popular amongst the public and where the majority of the money is being wagered. Whether you choose to go along with how the majority has placed its bets, or you choose to break from the pack, is up to you.
The Action Network NFL Public Betting page enables you to filter between bet types as well so you can see the public sentiment across moneyline, spread, and totals.
PRO Projections
Our in-house NFL experts review and handicap every single NFL game based on a multitude of factors including recent team performance, player value, injuries, and more. Condensing all these factors, The Action Network grades each matchup and provides an edge percentage to let you know which bets are most likely to succeed. Subscribe to Action PRO to get unlimited access to our NFL projections.
PRO Report
If you want to make betting decisions for yourself, but don’t have the time to collect all the data, check out our NFL PRO Report. This analysis highlights five key bettings signals: big money, sharp action, expert projections, expert picks, and historical betting systems.
NFL Expert Picks
If you’re in a time crunch or just want to leave it to the experts, our NFL Picks page is the place to go. Here, you can see how experts are picking a particular contest across various bet types and odds. Check this page regularly during the season to see how you stack up against the experts.
