Nick Giffen

TreVeyon Henderson over 0.5 receptions (-140 at BetMGM, Caesars, Hard Rock) Henderson got phased out of the offense for the most part in the conference championship game, but a lot of that has to do with the snow and with the Patriots playing with the lead, with Vrabel trusting Rhamondre Stevenson not to fumble in the conditions. With a week off to prepare, in ideal conditions, and the Patriots more likely to trail than not, I can see Henderson drifting back toward his usage in the first two rounds of the playoffs which, while still not a ton, was 17 routes in two games, being targeted three times. This is a spot where his target rate should theoretically go up, as the Seahawks play a lot of zone coverage (5th most in the NFL), and lean toward two-high safety looks. Against zone, Henderson has been targeted on 21% of his routes, compared to just 6% of routes against man coverage. And against two-high safety looks, Henderson's target rate is 22% compared to 15% against single high looks. We also have to factor in that Seattle is a high pressure defense, and while everyone's target per route goes down under pressure (because of sacks, throwaways, and QB scrambles), Henderson's drops less than the average receiver, with the third-lowest dip when Maye is under pressure of 9 regular Patriot pass catchers. With two weeks to scheme things up, I'd look for a designed play to help bust this stingy Seahawks zone defense that allows the most targets per game in the league to RBs. I'd play this to -165, meaning all current available prices at the time I dropped the pick in the Action App are playable.