Nick Giffen

Jacory Croskey-Merritt Longest Rush over 15.5 yds (-125 at DK/MGM) Using even my worst case projections here where I'm looking at over 16.5 yards (instead of 15.5, because most books have 16.5), I get this at worst a super-slight underdog to clear 16.5 (and a coinflip at 15.5) Chicago has allowed a run over 16.5 yards on exactly 10% of RB runs from at least 16 yards away from the end zone, while Croskey-Merritt has garnered a 17+ yard carry twice in 38 rushes from at least 15 yards away from the end zone Notice I'm applying worst case scenarios here, forcing Bill into an extra attempt closer to the goal line than he could even clear 15.5 and pulling in a run from the 16-yard line for Chicago's defense that wouldn't clear 16.5 yards Using a best fit distribution for each and then applying the worse of two scenarios between true rate or best fit rate for each of the Bears D and Croskey-Merrit (penalizing JCM each time), then schedule adjusting these for the Bears playing difficult run offenses and penalizing Croskey-Merritt for playing an easy schedule, I still get that Croskey Merritt would clear this close to 67% of the time at his 15.5 rush attempt line Using a worst case average rush attempt projection for him of 11.75 attempts, that's where I get this would be a coin flip to clear 15.5 That means anything better than these worse case scenarios would be favored to clear 15.5, and I've pretty clearly taken this to be the doomsday scenario. I'd still play this above 16.5 at -112 at FD 15.5 is good to at least -150, 16.5 is good to at least -130