San Francisco 49ers Odds

Saturday night brings us another rematch, though much more recent than Buffalo-Denver. In fact, this is a rematch of the last game Seattle played! That was that huge Saturday night game to close out the regular season, which is a good place to start here because it's a reminder of how huge a rest advantage Seattle has over this banged-up 49ers squad and it's worth remembering just how much the Seahawks dominated that one in a 13-3 win that wasn't that close. The numbers were not close: 361 yards to 173, 29 first downs to 9, 50% Success Rate to just 36%. It was the fewest yards and points a Kyle Shanahan team had seen since his head coaching debut. Seattle's awesome defense held an elite 49ers defense to 2-for-9 on third down, 0-for-2 on fourth down, and 0-for-1 in the red zone — a far cry from San Francisco's usual domination and No. 1 rating in those money downs. Unfortunately for San Francisco, that dropoff against good defenses has been the norm, not the exception. The 49ers have played eight games since Brock Purdy returned from injury. Half of them have come against a defense ranked 20th or worse, and San Francisco has a 54% Success Rate in those high-scoring affairs, with a total at 69.8 PPG. But in four games against any defense with even a pulse at 19th or better, that plummets to just 40% Success Rate and only 30.3 PPG total. This looks like a low-scoring affair, and that all led me to bet under 47.5 when the line opened on Sunday night on the Hot Read. I still like the under best, and though it's crossed the key number now, there's still some value at under 45.5. Mike MacDonald's Seattle defense was built for offenses like this. The Seahawks are elite against motion and playaction, elite defending the middle of the field — all those areas where Shanahan's offense has lived over the years. Seattle also ranks top-two on both late downs and in the red zone, where Shanahan's Niners are most efficient. Seattle plays the second most light boxes in the league, opting to keep extra defensive backs on the field, but the 49ers have struggled to run the ball consistently this year and rank just 30th against light boxes by EPA per play. San Francisco also doesn't get many explosives offensively and shouldn't against a defense that takes them away. The Seahawks are the league's best team against WR1 as well, which could be a problem if Ricky Pearsall is limited or out again and Jauan Jennings is the only real downfield threat, especially with George Kittle out too. San Francisco should find some success on short passes, one purposeful area of weakness for Seattle, but that's a tough way to live, grinding out long, slow drives down the field against Seattle. Of course, the Seahawks could end up in a similar situation. San Francisco's defense is just as bad as you think, but Seattle's defense has really fallen off over the course of the season. Through 10 games, Seattle led the league in Passing DVOA, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba was putting up historic numbers, on pace for a 2,000 yard season. Klint Kubiak's offense was confusing opponents, putting heavy personnel on the field to invite heavier defense, then attacking deep down the field and shredding with the pass. Then Week 11 happened against the Rams. LA paid little attention to Seattle's heavy packages and played them on tendencies instead, expecting the pass and mostly stopping it, confusing Sam Darnold along the way. That worked like a charm, and teams have copied that idea with success against Seattle since. Remember how the Seahawks ranked 1st in Passing DVOA through 10 games? They're just 25th since, bottom quarter of the league. Robert Saleh's defense lacks healthy bodies, but Saleh deploys a high amount of zone coverage and Sam Darnold has been far worse against zone defense this season. San Francisco also struggles mightily against WR2 and WR3 down the line but has held its own against WR1s, and Seattle's pass attack is dependent heavily on JSN, whose numbers have fallen off since that Rams game. Seattle is a run-heavy team and has predictably run the ball better during this more recent stretch — it helps when your opponent isn't stacking the box! — but better running at the cost of far worse passing is a losing formula overall. The Seahawks should run with success on this very beatable 49ers rush defense, but San Francisco will live with that — again, long 10- or 12-play drives, chewing up the clock and keeping the underdog close, hoping for Darnold to make a mistake along the way. In a low-scoring game with long, slow drives expected, that under looks pretty tasty, and it also makes 7.5 too many points to give the underdog. I've been high on Seattle all season and give this team a significant home field and rest advantage and even still, I can't get to or past the key number. Remember, 1-seeds after the bye are 34% ATS in the Divisional Round, and favorites this round that won over 75% of their regular season games are also 34% ATS. San Francisco is the best trends play of the weekend. Road teams this round that missed the previous postseason are 29-14 ATS (67%), and road teams in division rematches are 14-6-1 ATS (70%) in the playoffs. I lean San Francisco +7.5 and expect the 49ers to keep this competitive since Seattle's offense isn't putting teams away, but I do expect Seattle to win. The Seahawks have won 10 straight home playoff games with fans in the stands and Darnold is 13-0 SU lifetime as a favorite of six or more. Teams with 14+ days rest versus those on six days or less are a perfect 7-0 SU over the last four decades of playoffs, and underdog Wild Card Round winners have won a second game just two of their last 24 tries. Teams like Seattle rarely lose, even if the number is inflated. Build yourself an SGP: San Francisco +7.5 to cover the high lines but Seattle to win, by seven or less, at +202 (bet365). If we do get lots of long, strenuous drives, that should mean plenty of short passes. I played Christian McCaffrey receptions in the Week 18 matchup with success and wanted to hit that again here with Seattle allowing the most receptions to RBs of any NFL team, but books got ahead of it this time and there's simply no value on the lines. McCaffrey averages 9.3 targets in games where Kittle played 50% of the snaps or less this season, but there's another player who should see a direct uptick with Kittle out: Jake Tonges. Check out Tonges' stat line in his last three games without Kittle: 7/60, 6/48, and 7/41. It's not pretty but the volume is there, along with a pair of TDs. Seattle allowed the 5th most receptions to tight ends this season, with 7+ catches to TEs in over half their games and 8+ in over a third. San Francisco had 13 TE receptions in its two games against Seattle this season. Tonges won't match Kittle's versatility or game-breaking upside, but he should see some volume. His receptions line is a full catch too low so I'll play 5+ catches at +135 along with just as much of my bet at 6+ receptions at +257, and let's play 7+ at +508 too (all DraftKings) in case Tonges matches his total from two of his last three games without Kittle. If we get short passing the other way, it may come from Seattle's running backs since San Francisco allowed the second most RB receptions this season, trailing only Seattle. Twenty RBs this season had 3+ catches against San Francisco, more than one per game, and nine had 4+ catches. Kenneth Walker has quietly seen his receiving volume increase. He's averaging 2.5 catches for 25 yards over the past eight games, way up from must 1.2 receptions for 9.2 yards before that. Walker has 20 catches in those eight games, as many as Zach Charbonnet has all season. Walker had 3+ catches six times this season, including both San Francisco games. Bet Walker to catch three passes at +190, with a small escalator at 4+ receptions for +525 as well (both bet365).

Saturday night brings us another rematch, though much more recent than Buffalo-Denver. In fact, this is a rematch of the last game Seattle played! That was that huge Saturday night game to close out the regular season, which is a good place to start here because it's a reminder of how huge a rest advantage Seattle has over this banged-up 49ers squad and it's worth remembering just how much the Seahawks dominated that one in a 13-3 win that wasn't that close. The numbers were not close: 361 yards to 173, 29 first downs to 9, 50% Success Rate to just 36%. It was the fewest yards and points a Kyle Shanahan team had seen since his head coaching debut. Seattle's awesome defense held an elite 49ers defense to 2-for-9 on third down, 0-for-2 on fourth down, and 0-for-1 in the red zone — a far cry from San Francisco's usual domination and No. 1 rating in those money downs. Unfortunately for San Francisco, that dropoff against good defenses has been the norm, not the exception. The 49ers have played eight games since Brock Purdy returned from injury. Half of them have come against a defense ranked 20th or worse, and San Francisco has a 54% Success Rate in those high-scoring affairs, with a total at 69.8 PPG. But in four games against any defense with even a pulse at 19th or better, that plummets to just 40% Success Rate and only 30.3 PPG total. This looks like a low-scoring affair, and that all led me to bet under 47.5 when the line opened on Sunday night on the Hot Read. I still like the under best, and though it's crossed the key number now, there's still some value at under 45.5. Mike MacDonald's Seattle defense was built for offenses like this. The Seahawks are elite against motion and playaction, elite defending the middle of the field — all those areas where Shanahan's offense has lived over the years. Seattle also ranks top-two on both late downs and in the red zone, where Shanahan's Niners are most efficient. Seattle plays the second most light boxes in the league, opting to keep extra defensive backs on the field, but the 49ers have struggled to run the ball consistently this year and rank just 30th against light boxes by EPA per play. San Francisco also doesn't get many explosives offensively and shouldn't against a defense that takes them away. The Seahawks are the league's best team against WR1 as well, which could be a problem if Ricky Pearsall is limited or out again and Jauan Jennings is the only real downfield threat, especially with George Kittle out too. San Francisco should find some success on short passes, one purposeful area of weakness for Seattle, but that's a tough way to live, grinding out long, slow drives down the field against Seattle. Of course, the Seahawks could end up in a similar situation. San Francisco's defense is just as bad as you think, but Seattle's defense has really fallen off over the course of the season. Through 10 games, Seattle led the league in Passing DVOA, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba was putting up historic numbers, on pace for a 2,000 yard season. Klint Kubiak's offense was confusing opponents, putting heavy personnel on the field to invite heavier defense, then attacking deep down the field and shredding with the pass. Then Week 11 happened against the Rams. LA paid little attention to Seattle's heavy packages and played them on tendencies instead, expecting the pass and mostly stopping it, confusing Sam Darnold along the way. That worked like a charm, and teams have copied that idea with success against Seattle since. Remember how the Seahawks ranked 1st in Passing DVOA through 10 games? They're just 25th since, bottom quarter of the league. Robert Saleh's defense lacks healthy bodies, but Saleh deploys a high amount of zone coverage and Sam Darnold has been far worse against zone defense this season. San Francisco also struggles mightily against WR2 and WR3 down the line but has held its own against WR1s, and Seattle's pass attack is dependent heavily on JSN, whose numbers have fallen off since that Rams game. Seattle is a run-heavy team and has predictably run the ball better during this more recent stretch — it helps when your opponent isn't stacking the box! — but better running at the cost of far worse passing is a losing formula overall. The Seahawks should run with success on this very beatable 49ers rush defense, but San Francisco will live with that — again, long 10- or 12-play drives, chewing up the clock and keeping the underdog close, hoping for Darnold to make a mistake along the way. In a low-scoring game with long, slow drives expected, that under looks pretty tasty, and it also makes 7.5 too many points to give the underdog. I've been high on Seattle all season and give this team a significant home field and rest advantage and even still, I can't get to or past the key number. Remember, 1-seeds after the bye are 34% ATS in the Divisional Round, and favorites this round that won over 75% of their regular season games are also 34% ATS. San Francisco is the best trends play of the weekend. Road teams this round that missed the previous postseason are 29-14 ATS (67%), and road teams in division rematches are 14-6-1 ATS (70%) in the playoffs. I lean San Francisco +7.5 and expect the 49ers to keep this competitive since Seattle's offense isn't putting teams away, but I do expect Seattle to win. The Seahawks have won 10 straight home playoff games with fans in the stands and Darnold is 13-0 SU lifetime as a favorite of six or more. Teams with 14+ days rest versus those on six days or less are a perfect 7-0 SU over the last four decades of playoffs, and underdog Wild Card Round winners have won a second game just two of their last 24 tries. Teams like Seattle rarely lose, even if the number is inflated. Build yourself an SGP: San Francisco +7.5 to cover the high lines but Seattle to win, by seven or less, at +202 (bet365). If we do get lots of long, strenuous drives, that should mean plenty of short passes. I played Christian McCaffrey receptions in the Week 18 matchup with success and wanted to hit that again here with Seattle allowing the most receptions to RBs of any NFL team, but books got ahead of it this time and there's simply no value on the lines. McCaffrey averages 9.3 targets in games where Kittle played 50% of the snaps or less this season, but there's another player who should see a direct uptick with Kittle out: Jake Tonges. Check out Tonges' stat line in his last three games without Kittle: 7/60, 6/48, and 7/41. It's not pretty but the volume is there, along with a pair of TDs. Seattle allowed the 5th most receptions to tight ends this season, with 7+ catches to TEs in over half their games and 8+ in over a third. San Francisco had 13 TE receptions in its two games against Seattle this season. Tonges won't match Kittle's versatility or game-breaking upside, but he should see some volume. His receptions line is a full catch too low so I'll play 5+ catches at +135 along with just as much of my bet at 6+ receptions at +257, and let's play 7+ at +508 too (all DraftKings) in case Tonges matches his total from two of his last three games without Kittle. If we get short passing the other way, it may come from Seattle's running backs since San Francisco allowed the second most RB receptions this season, trailing only Seattle. Twenty RBs this season had 3+ catches against San Francisco, more than one per game, and nine had 4+ catches. Kenneth Walker has quietly seen his receiving volume increase. He's averaging 2.5 catches for 25 yards over the past eight games, way up from must 1.2 receptions for 9.2 yards before that. Walker has 20 catches in those eight games, as many as Zach Charbonnet has all season. Walker had 3+ catches six times this season, including both San Francisco games. Bet Walker to catch three passes at +190, with a small escalator at 4+ receptions for +525 as well (both bet365).

Saturday night brings us another rematch, though much more recent than Buffalo-Denver. In fact, this is a rematch of the last game Seattle played! That was that huge Saturday night game to close out the regular season, which is a good place to start here because it's a reminder of how huge a rest advantage Seattle has over this banged-up 49ers squad and it's worth remembering just how much the Seahawks dominated that one in a 13-3 win that wasn't that close. The numbers were not close: 361 yards to 173, 29 first downs to 9, 50% Success Rate to just 36%. It was the fewest yards and points a Kyle Shanahan team had seen since his head coaching debut. Seattle's awesome defense held an elite 49ers defense to 2-for-9 on third down, 0-for-2 on fourth down, and 0-for-1 in the red zone — a far cry from San Francisco's usual domination and No. 1 rating in those money downs. Unfortunately for San Francisco, that dropoff against good defenses has been the norm, not the exception. The 49ers have played eight games since Brock Purdy returned from injury. Half of them have come against a defense ranked 20th or worse, and San Francisco has a 54% Success Rate in those high-scoring affairs, with a total at 69.8 PPG. But in four games against any defense with even a pulse at 19th or better, that plummets to just 40% Success Rate and only 30.3 PPG total. This looks like a low-scoring affair, and that all led me to bet under 47.5 when the line opened on Sunday night on the Hot Read. I still like the under best, and though it's crossed the key number now, there's still some value at under 45.5. Mike MacDonald's Seattle defense was built for offenses like this. The Seahawks are elite against motion and playaction, elite defending the middle of the field — all those areas where Shanahan's offense has lived over the years. Seattle also ranks top-two on both late downs and in the red zone, where Shanahan's Niners are most efficient. Seattle plays the second most light boxes in the league, opting to keep extra defensive backs on the field, but the 49ers have struggled to run the ball consistently this year and rank just 30th against light boxes by EPA per play. San Francisco also doesn't get many explosives offensively and shouldn't against a defense that takes them away. The Seahawks are the league's best team against WR1 as well, which could be a problem if Ricky Pearsall is limited or out again and Jauan Jennings is the only real downfield threat, especially with George Kittle out too. San Francisco should find some success on short passes, one purposeful area of weakness for Seattle, but that's a tough way to live, grinding out long, slow drives down the field against Seattle. Of course, the Seahawks could end up in a similar situation. San Francisco's defense is just as bad as you think, but Seattle's defense has really fallen off over the course of the season. Through 10 games, Seattle led the league in Passing DVOA, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba was putting up historic numbers, on pace for a 2,000 yard season. Klint Kubiak's offense was confusing opponents, putting heavy personnel on the field to invite heavier defense, then attacking deep down the field and shredding with the pass. Then Week 11 happened against the Rams. LA paid little attention to Seattle's heavy packages and played them on tendencies instead, expecting the pass and mostly stopping it, confusing Sam Darnold along the way. That worked like a charm, and teams have copied that idea with success against Seattle since. Remember how the Seahawks ranked 1st in Passing DVOA through 10 games? They're just 25th since, bottom quarter of the league. Robert Saleh's defense lacks healthy bodies, but Saleh deploys a high amount of zone coverage and Sam Darnold has been far worse against zone defense this season. San Francisco also struggles mightily against WR2 and WR3 down the line but has held its own against WR1s, and Seattle's pass attack is dependent heavily on JSN, whose numbers have fallen off since that Rams game. Seattle is a run-heavy team and has predictably run the ball better during this more recent stretch — it helps when your opponent isn't stacking the box! — but better running at the cost of far worse passing is a losing formula overall. The Seahawks should run with success on this very beatable 49ers rush defense, but San Francisco will live with that — again, long 10- or 12-play drives, chewing up the clock and keeping the underdog close, hoping for Darnold to make a mistake along the way. In a low-scoring game with long, slow drives expected, that under looks pretty tasty, and it also makes 7.5 too many points to give the underdog. I've been high on Seattle all season and give this team a significant home field and rest advantage and even still, I can't get to or past the key number. Remember, 1-seeds after the bye are 34% ATS in the Divisional Round, and favorites this round that won over 75% of their regular season games are also 34% ATS. San Francisco is the best trends play of the weekend. Road teams this round that missed the previous postseason are 29-14 ATS (67%), and road teams in division rematches are 14-6-1 ATS (70%) in the playoffs. I lean San Francisco +7.5 and expect the 49ers to keep this competitive since Seattle's offense isn't putting teams away, but I do expect Seattle to win. The Seahawks have won 10 straight home playoff games with fans in the stands and Darnold is 13-0 SU lifetime as a favorite of six or more. Teams with 14+ days rest versus those on six days or less are a perfect 7-0 SU over the last four decades of playoffs, and underdog Wild Card Round winners have won a second game just two of their last 24 tries. Teams like Seattle rarely lose, even if the number is inflated. Build yourself an SGP: San Francisco +7.5 to cover the high lines but Seattle to win, by seven or less, at +202 (bet365). If we do get lots of long, strenuous drives, that should mean plenty of short passes. I played Christian McCaffrey receptions in the Week 18 matchup with success and wanted to hit that again here with Seattle allowing the most receptions to RBs of any NFL team, but books got ahead of it this time and there's simply no value on the lines. McCaffrey averages 9.3 targets in games where Kittle played 50% of the snaps or less this season, but there's another player who should see a direct uptick with Kittle out: Jake Tonges. Check out Tonges' stat line in his last three games without Kittle: 7/60, 6/48, and 7/41. It's not pretty but the volume is there, along with a pair of TDs. Seattle allowed the 5th most receptions to tight ends this season, with 7+ catches to TEs in over half their games and 8+ in over a third. San Francisco had 13 TE receptions in its two games against Seattle this season. Tonges won't match Kittle's versatility or game-breaking upside, but he should see some volume. His receptions line is a full catch too low so I'll play 5+ catches at +135 along with just as much of my bet at 6+ receptions at +257, and let's play 7+ at +508 too (all DraftKings) in case Tonges matches his total from two of his last three games without Kittle. If we get short passing the other way, it may come from Seattle's running backs since San Francisco allowed the second most RB receptions this season, trailing only Seattle. Twenty RBs this season had 3+ catches against San Francisco, more than one per game, and nine had 4+ catches. Kenneth Walker has quietly seen his receiving volume increase. He's averaging 2.5 catches for 25 yards over the past eight games, way up from must 1.2 receptions for 9.2 yards before that. Walker has 20 catches in those eight games, as many as Zach Charbonnet has all season. Walker had 3+ catches six times this season, including both San Francisco games. Bet Walker to catch three passes at +190, with a small escalator at 4+ receptions for +525 as well (both bet365).

Adding small to u47.5 Hot Read for notification: Saturday night brings us another rematch, though much more recent than Buffalo-Denver. In fact, this is a rematch of the last game Seattle played! That was that huge Saturday night game to close out the regular season, which is a good place to start here because it's a reminder of how huge a rest advantage Seattle has over this banged-up 49ers squad and it's worth remembering just how much the Seahawks dominated that one in a 13-3 win that wasn't that close. The numbers were not close: 361 yards to 173, 29 first downs to 9, 50% Success Rate to just 36%. It was the fewest yards and points a Kyle Shanahan team had seen since his head coaching debut. Seattle's awesome defense held an elite 49ers defense to 2-for-9 on third down, 0-for-2 on fourth down, and 0-for-1 in the red zone — a far cry from San Francisco's usual domination and No. 1 rating in those money downs. Unfortunately for San Francisco, that dropoff against good defenses has been the norm, not the exception. The 49ers have played eight games since Brock Purdy returned from injury. Half of them have come against a defense ranked 20th or worse, and San Francisco has a 54% Success Rate in those high-scoring affairs, with a total at 69.8 PPG. But in four games against any defense with even a pulse at 19th or better, that plummets to just 40% Success Rate and only 30.3 PPG total. This looks like a low-scoring affair, and that all led me to bet under 47.5 when the line opened on Sunday night on the Hot Read. I still like the under best, and though it's crossed the key number now, there's still some value at under 45.5. Mike MacDonald's Seattle defense was built for offenses like this. The Seahawks are elite against motion and playaction, elite defending the middle of the field — all those areas where Shanahan's offense has lived over the years. Seattle also ranks top-two on both late downs and in the red zone, where Shanahan's Niners are most efficient. Seattle plays the second most light boxes in the league, opting to keep extra defensive backs on the field, but the 49ers have struggled to run the ball consistently this year and rank just 30th against light boxes by EPA per play. San Francisco also doesn't get many explosives offensively and shouldn't against a defense that takes them away. The Seahawks are the league's best team against WR1 as well, which could be a problem if Ricky Pearsall is limited or out again and Jauan Jennings is the only real downfield threat, especially with George Kittle out too. San Francisco should find some success on short passes, one purposeful area of weakness for Seattle, but that's a tough way to live, grinding out long, slow drives down the field against Seattle. Of course, the Seahawks could end up in a similar situation. San Francisco's defense is just as bad as you think, but Seattle's defense has really fallen off over the course of the season. Through 10 games, Seattle led the league in Passing DVOA, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba was putting up historic numbers, on pace for a 2,000 yard season. Klint Kubiak's offense was confusing opponents, putting heavy personnel on the field to invite heavier defense, then attacking deep down the field and shredding with the pass. Then Week 11 happened against the Rams. LA paid little attention to Seattle's heavy packages and played them on tendencies instead, expecting the pass and mostly stopping it, confusing Sam Darnold along the way. That worked like a charm, and teams have copied that idea with success against Seattle since. Remember how the Seahawks ranked 1st in Passing DVOA through 10 games? They're just 25th since, bottom quarter of the league. Robert Saleh's defense lacks healthy bodies, but Saleh deploys a high amount of zone coverage and Sam Darnold has been far worse against zone defense this season. San Francisco also struggles mightily against WR2 and WR3 down the line but has held its own against WR1s, and Seattle's pass attack is dependent heavily on JSN, whose numbers have fallen off since that Rams game. Seattle is a run-heavy team and has predictably run the ball better during this more recent stretch — it helps when your opponent isn't stacking the box! — but better running at the cost of far worse passing is a losing formula overall. The Seahawks should run with success on this very beatable 49ers rush defense, but San Francisco will live with that — again, long 10- or 12-play drives, chewing up the clock and keeping the underdog close, hoping for Darnold to make a mistake along the way. In a low-scoring game with long, slow drives expected, that under looks pretty tasty, and it also makes 7.5 too many points to give the underdog. I've been high on Seattle all season and give this team a significant home field and rest advantage and even still, I can't get to or past the key number. Remember, 1-seeds after the bye are 34% ATS in the Divisional Round, and favorites this round that won over 75% of their regular season games are also 34% ATS. San Francisco is the best trends play of the weekend. Road teams this round that missed the previous postseason are 29-14 ATS (67%), and road teams in division rematches are 14-6-1 ATS (70%) in the playoffs. I lean San Francisco +7.5 and expect the 49ers to keep this competitive since Seattle's offense isn't putting teams away, but I do expect Seattle to win. The Seahawks have won 10 straight home playoff games with fans in the stands and Darnold is 13-0 SU lifetime as a favorite of six or more. Teams with 14+ days rest versus those on six days or less are a perfect 7-0 SU over the last four decades of playoffs, and underdog Wild Card Round winners have won a second game just two of their last 24 tries. Teams like Seattle rarely lose, even if the number is inflated. Build yourself an SGP: San Francisco +7.5 to cover the high lines but Seattle to win, by seven or less, at +202 (bet365). If we do get lots of long, strenuous drives, that should mean plenty of short passes. I played Christian McCaffrey receptions in the Week 18 matchup with success and wanted to hit that again here with Seattle allowing the most receptions to RBs of any NFL team, but books got ahead of it this time and there's simply no value on the lines. McCaffrey averages 9.3 targets in games where Kittle played 50% of the snaps or less this season, but there's another player who should see a direct uptick with Kittle out: Jake Tonges. Check out Tonges' stat line in his last three games without Kittle: 7/60, 6/48, and 7/41. It's not pretty but the volume is there, along with a pair of TDs. Seattle allowed the 5th most receptions to tight ends this season, with 7+ catches to TEs in over half their games and 8+ in over a third. San Francisco had 13 TE receptions in its two games against Seattle this season. Tonges won't match Kittle's versatility or game-breaking upside, but he should see some volume. His receptions line is a full catch too low so I'll play 5+ catches at +135 along with just as much of my bet at 6+ receptions at +257, and let's play 7+ at +508 too (all DraftKings) in case Tonges matches his total from two of his last three games without Kittle. If we get short passing the other way, it may come from Seattle's running backs since San Francisco allowed the second most RB receptions this season, trailing only Seattle. Twenty RBs this season had 3+ catches against San Francisco, more than one per game, and nine had 4+ catches. Kenneth Walker has quietly seen his receiving volume increase. He's averaging 2.5 catches for 25 yards over the past eight games, way up from must 1.2 receptions for 9.2 yards before that. Walker has 20 catches in those eight games, as many as Zach Charbonnet has all season. Walker had 3+ catches six times this season, including both San Francisco games. Bet Walker to catch three passes at +190, with a small escalator at 4+ receptions for +525 as well (both bet365).

Saturday night brings us another rematch, though much more recent than Buffalo-Denver. In fact, this is a rematch of the last game Seattle played! That was that huge Saturday night game to close out the regular season, which is a good place to start here because it's a reminder of how huge a rest advantage Seattle has over this banged-up 49ers squad and it's worth remembering just how much the Seahawks dominated that one in a 13-3 win that wasn't that close. The numbers were not close: 361 yards to 173, 29 first downs to 9, 50% Success Rate to just 36%. It was the fewest yards and points a Kyle Shanahan team had seen since his head coaching debut. Seattle's awesome defense held an elite 49ers defense to 2-for-9 on third down, 0-for-2 on fourth down, and 0-for-1 in the red zone — a far cry from San Francisco's usual domination and No. 1 rating in those money downs. Unfortunately for San Francisco, that dropoff against good defenses has been the norm, not the exception. The 49ers have played eight games since Brock Purdy returned from injury. Half of them have come against a defense ranked 20th or worse, and San Francisco has a 54% Success Rate in those high-scoring affairs, with a total at 69.8 PPG. But in four games against any defense with even a pulse at 19th or better, that plummets to just 40% Success Rate and only 30.3 PPG total. This looks like a low-scoring affair, and that all led me to bet under 47.5 when the line opened on Sunday night on the Hot Read. I still like the under best, and though it's crossed the key number now, there's still some value at under 45.5. Mike MacDonald's Seattle defense was built for offenses like this. The Seahawks are elite against motion and playaction, elite defending the middle of the field — all those areas where Shanahan's offense has lived over the years. Seattle also ranks top-two on both late downs and in the red zone, where Shanahan's Niners are most efficient. Seattle plays the second most light boxes in the league, opting to keep extra defensive backs on the field, but the 49ers have struggled to run the ball consistently this year and rank just 30th against light boxes by EPA per play. San Francisco also doesn't get many explosives offensively and shouldn't against a defense that takes them away. The Seahawks are the league's best team against WR1 as well, which could be a problem if Ricky Pearsall is limited or out again and Jauan Jennings is the only real downfield threat, especially with George Kittle out too. San Francisco should find some success on short passes, one purposeful area of weakness for Seattle, but that's a tough way to live, grinding out long, slow drives down the field against Seattle. Of course, the Seahawks could end up in a similar situation. San Francisco's defense is just as bad as you think, but Seattle's defense has really fallen off over the course of the season. Through 10 games, Seattle led the league in Passing DVOA, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba was putting up historic numbers, on pace for a 2,000 yard season. Klint Kubiak's offense was confusing opponents, putting heavy personnel on the field to invite heavier defense, then attacking deep down the field and shredding with the pass. Then Week 11 happened against the Rams. LA paid little attention to Seattle's heavy packages and played them on tendencies instead, expecting the pass and mostly stopping it, confusing Sam Darnold along the way. That worked like a charm, and teams have copied that idea with success against Seattle since. Remember how the Seahawks ranked 1st in Passing DVOA through 10 games? They're just 25th since, bottom quarter of the league. Robert Saleh's defense lacks healthy bodies, but Saleh deploys a high amount of zone coverage and Sam Darnold has been far worse against zone defense this season. San Francisco also struggles mightily against WR2 and WR3 down the line but has held its own against WR1s, and Seattle's pass attack is dependent heavily on JSN, whose numbers have fallen off since that Rams game. Seattle is a run-heavy team and has predictably run the ball better during this more recent stretch — it helps when your opponent isn't stacking the box! — but better running at the cost of far worse passing is a losing formula overall. The Seahawks should run with success on this very beatable 49ers rush defense, but San Francisco will live with that — again, long 10- or 12-play drives, chewing up the clock and keeping the underdog close, hoping for Darnold to make a mistake along the way. In a low-scoring game with long, slow drives expected, that under looks pretty tasty, and it also makes 7.5 too many points to give the underdog. I've been high on Seattle all season and give this team a significant home field and rest advantage and even still, I can't get to or past the key number. Remember, 1-seeds after the bye are 34% ATS in the Divisional Round, and favorites this round that won over 75% of their regular season games are also 34% ATS. San Francisco is the best trends play of the weekend. Road teams this round that missed the previous postseason are 29-14 ATS (67%), and road teams in division rematches are 14-6-1 ATS (70%) in the playoffs. I lean San Francisco +7.5 and expect the 49ers to keep this competitive since Seattle's offense isn't putting teams away, but I do expect Seattle to win. The Seahawks have won 10 straight home playoff games with fans in the stands and Darnold is 13-0 SU lifetime as a favorite of six or more. Teams with 14+ days rest versus those on six days or less are a perfect 7-0 SU over the last four decades of playoffs, and underdog Wild Card Round winners have won a second game just two of their last 24 tries. Teams like Seattle rarely lose, even if the number is inflated. Build yourself an SGP: San Francisco +7.5 to cover the high lines but Seattle to win, by seven or less, at +202 (bet365). If we do get lots of long, strenuous drives, that should mean plenty of short passes. I played Christian McCaffrey receptions in the Week 18 matchup with success and wanted to hit that again here with Seattle allowing the most receptions to RBs of any NFL team, but books got ahead of it this time and there's simply no value on the lines. McCaffrey averages 9.3 targets in games where Kittle played 50% of the snaps or less this season, but there's another player who should see a direct uptick with Kittle out: Jake Tonges. Check out Tonges' stat line in his last three games without Kittle: 7/60, 6/48, and 7/41. It's not pretty but the volume is there, along with a pair of TDs. Seattle allowed the 5th most receptions to tight ends this season, with 7+ catches to TEs in over half their games and 8+ in over a third. San Francisco had 13 TE receptions in its two games against Seattle this season. Tonges won't match Kittle's versatility or game-breaking upside, but he should see some volume. His receptions line is a full catch too low so I'll play 5+ catches at +135 along with just as much of my bet at 6+ receptions at +257, and let's play 7+ at +508 too (all DraftKings) in case Tonges matches his total from two of his last three games without Kittle. If we get short passing the other way, it may come from Seattle's running backs since San Francisco allowed the second most RB receptions this season, trailing only Seattle. Twenty RBs this season had 3+ catches against San Francisco, more than one per game, and nine had 4+ catches. Kenneth Walker has quietly seen his receiving volume increase. He's averaging 2.5 catches for 25 yards over the past eight games, way up from must 1.2 receptions for 9.2 yards before that. Walker has 20 catches in those eight games, as many as Zach Charbonnet has all season. Walker had 3+ catches six times this season, including both San Francisco games. Bet Walker to catch three passes at +190, with a small escalator at 4+ receptions for +525 as well (both bet365).

Saturday night brings us another rematch, though much more recent than Buffalo-Denver. In fact, this is a rematch of the last game Seattle played! That was that huge Saturday night game to close out the regular season, which is a good place to start here because it's a reminder of how huge a rest advantage Seattle has over this banged-up 49ers squad and it's worth remembering just how much the Seahawks dominated that one in a 13-3 win that wasn't that close. The numbers were not close: 361 yards to 173, 29 first downs to 9, 50% Success Rate to just 36%. It was the fewest yards and points a Kyle Shanahan team had seen since his head coaching debut. Seattle's awesome defense held an elite 49ers defense to 2-for-9 on third down, 0-for-2 on fourth down, and 0-for-1 in the red zone — a far cry from San Francisco's usual domination and No. 1 rating in those money downs. Unfortunately for San Francisco, that dropoff against good defenses has been the norm, not the exception. The 49ers have played eight games since Brock Purdy returned from injury. Half of them have come against a defense ranked 20th or worse, and San Francisco has a 54% Success Rate in those high-scoring affairs, with a total at 69.8 PPG. But in four games against any defense with even a pulse at 19th or better, that plummets to just 40% Success Rate and only 30.3 PPG total. This looks like a low-scoring affair, and that all led me to bet under 47.5 when the line opened on Sunday night on the Hot Read. I still like the under best, and though it's crossed the key number now, there's still some value at under 45.5. Mike MacDonald's Seattle defense was built for offenses like this. The Seahawks are elite against motion and playaction, elite defending the middle of the field — all those areas where Shanahan's offense has lived over the years. Seattle also ranks top-two on both late downs and in the red zone, where Shanahan's Niners are most efficient. Seattle plays the second most light boxes in the league, opting to keep extra defensive backs on the field, but the 49ers have struggled to run the ball consistently this year and rank just 30th against light boxes by EPA per play. San Francisco also doesn't get many explosives offensively and shouldn't against a defense that takes them away. The Seahawks are the league's best team against WR1 as well, which could be a problem if Ricky Pearsall is limited or out again and Jauan Jennings is the only real downfield threat, especially with George Kittle out too. San Francisco should find some success on short passes, one purposeful area of weakness for Seattle, but that's a tough way to live, grinding out long, slow drives down the field against Seattle. Of course, the Seahawks could end up in a similar situation. San Francisco's defense is just as bad as you think, but Seattle's defense has really fallen off over the course of the season. Through 10 games, Seattle led the league in Passing DVOA, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba was putting up historic numbers, on pace for a 2,000 yard season. Klint Kubiak's offense was confusing opponents, putting heavy personnel on the field to invite heavier defense, then attacking deep down the field and shredding with the pass. Then Week 11 happened against the Rams. LA paid little attention to Seattle's heavy packages and played them on tendencies instead, expecting the pass and mostly stopping it, confusing Sam Darnold along the way. That worked like a charm, and teams have copied that idea with success against Seattle since. Remember how the Seahawks ranked 1st in Passing DVOA through 10 games? They're just 25th since, bottom quarter of the league. Robert Saleh's defense lacks healthy bodies, but Saleh deploys a high amount of zone coverage and Sam Darnold has been far worse against zone defense this season. San Francisco also struggles mightily against WR2 and WR3 down the line but has held its own against WR1s, and Seattle's pass attack is dependent heavily on JSN, whose numbers have fallen off since that Rams game. Seattle is a run-heavy team and has predictably run the ball better during this more recent stretch — it helps when your opponent isn't stacking the box! — but better running at the cost of far worse passing is a losing formula overall. The Seahawks should run with success on this very beatable 49ers rush defense, but San Francisco will live with that — again, long 10- or 12-play drives, chewing up the clock and keeping the underdog close, hoping for Darnold to make a mistake along the way. In a low-scoring game with long, slow drives expected, that under looks pretty tasty, and it also makes 7.5 too many points to give the underdog. I've been high on Seattle all season and give this team a significant home field and rest advantage and even still, I can't get to or past the key number. Remember, 1-seeds after the bye are 34% ATS in the Divisional Round, and favorites this round that won over 75% of their regular season games are also 34% ATS. San Francisco is the best trends play of the weekend. Road teams this round that missed the previous postseason are 29-14 ATS (67%), and road teams in division rematches are 14-6-1 ATS (70%) in the playoffs. I lean San Francisco +7.5 and expect the 49ers to keep this competitive since Seattle's offense isn't putting teams away, but I do expect Seattle to win. The Seahawks have won 10 straight home playoff games with fans in the stands and Darnold is 13-0 SU lifetime as a favorite of six or more. Teams with 14+ days rest versus those on six days or less are a perfect 7-0 SU over the last four decades of playoffs, and underdog Wild Card Round winners have won a second game just two of their last 24 tries. Teams like Seattle rarely lose, even if the number is inflated. Build yourself an SGP: San Francisco +7.5 to cover the high lines but Seattle to win, by seven or less, at +202 (bet365). If we do get lots of long, strenuous drives, that should mean plenty of short passes. I played Christian McCaffrey receptions in the Week 18 matchup with success and wanted to hit that again here with Seattle allowing the most receptions to RBs of any NFL team, but books got ahead of it this time and there's simply no value on the lines. McCaffrey averages 9.3 targets in games where Kittle played 50% of the snaps or less this season, but there's another player who should see a direct uptick with Kittle out: Jake Tonges. Check out Tonges' stat line in his last three games without Kittle: 7/60, 6/48, and 7/41. It's not pretty but the volume is there, along with a pair of TDs. Seattle allowed the 5th most receptions to tight ends this season, with 7+ catches to TEs in over half their games and 8+ in over a third. San Francisco had 13 TE receptions in its two games against Seattle this season. Tonges won't match Kittle's versatility or game-breaking upside, but he should see some volume. His receptions line is a full catch too low so I'll play 5+ catches at +135 along with just as much of my bet at 6+ receptions at +257, and let's play 7+ at +508 too (all DraftKings) in case Tonges matches his total from two of his last three games without Kittle. If we get short passing the other way, it may come from Seattle's running backs since San Francisco allowed the second most RB receptions this season, trailing only Seattle. Twenty RBs this season had 3+ catches against San Francisco, more than one per game, and nine had 4+ catches. Kenneth Walker has quietly seen his receiving volume increase. He's averaging 2.5 catches for 25 yards over the past eight games, way up from must 1.2 receptions for 9.2 yards before that. Walker has 20 catches in those eight games, as many as Zach Charbonnet has all season. Walker had 3+ catches six times this season, including both San Francisco games. Bet Walker to catch three passes at +190, with a small escalator at 4+ receptions for +525 as well (both bet365).

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Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

I already discussed this on the Fantasy Flex Projections Pod earlier this week, but Barner saw his routes-run rate jump to 81% in the two games after Elijah Arroyo went on IR in Weeks 15–16, then fall all the way down to 61% over the final two weeks of the season. The reason for that drop was Eric Saubert playing slightly more snaps in 1TE formations, typically the more pass-heavy sets. Saubert played 53% of those snaps compared to Barner’s 47%, which resulted in Saubert running a 43% routes-run rate in Week 18. That usage is closer to where Arroyo typically operated and effectively lowered Barner’s chances in the passing game. Because of that, I expect Barner to settle into more of a 60–70% routes-run rate against the 49ers. That’s still enough playing time to do some damage, but there are matchup factors working against him. The 49ers have been solid against tight ends this season, ranking 4th in DVOA against the position. They also blitz at the 6th-lowest rate in the league, which matters because Barner has thrived against the blitz, averaging 2.64 yards per route run, compared to just 1.21 YPRR when teams don’t blitz. It’s also a game where the 49ers offense could struggle with George Kittle out. He’s a massive piece of their passing game and run blocking, so his absence matters. That sets up a scenario where the Seahawks could play with a one- to two-score lead for much of the game and lean on the run. I’m projecting Barner closer to a 27-yard median with around a 60% chance he stays under 32.5. Some books are already down to 31.5, and I still show around a 58% chance he stays under that number as well.

Tailing @nick_giffen

Christian McCaffrey Longest Rush under 11.5 yards (+104 at FanDuel) Just two weeks ago CMC faced the Seahawks, and I gave out his Longest Rush under 13.5 yards and said I'd even play it below 11.5. Then he went and ran for a longest rush of just 5 yards in that game. Yes, it was on only eight carries, but it followed the bigger trend that has plagued him all year. Against top-13 ranked run defenses, by DVOA, CMC has 134 rushing attempts from at least 12 yards away from the end zone in 10 games. He has exactly 1 carry longer than 11.5 yards. Adding in rushes from at least 10 yards away from the end zone, gives him two more attempts. In those 136 attempts he has just five total rushes hitting double digits, adding in two 11-yard carries and two 10-yard carries. He's now also lost George Kittle who is an excellent run-blocking TE, and has averaged 0.2 yards per carry less in games Kittle has missed. If I liked this line two weeks ago, I have to like it now with two extra games added in against top-13 rush defenses where he failed to produce a run beyond 11.5 yards.

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/ex18YaORYZb

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/ex18YaORYZb

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/ex18YaORYZb

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/ex18YaORYZb

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/ex18YaORYZb

@The_Oddsmaker https://myaction.app/uAJBxgenXZb

@ChrisRaybon https://myaction.app/uAJBxgenXZb

@GDAWG5000 https://myaction.app/uAJBxgenXZb

Would still play at +340 at FD/DK

@sundaysixpack @ChrisRaybon https://myaction.app/ro00xp6YWZb

@ChrisRaybon 2 https://myaction.app/ro00xp6YWZb

#SundaySixPack SF 20 points in 2 meetings vs SEA.

6+ in 3 of last 4, 6+ in 5 of 6 with Kittle out

@wheatonbrando Divisional Round Hot Read https://myaction.app/UGbVOp9mSZb

🔥 Divisional Round Hot Read 🔥