49ers vs. Chiefs Odds & Betting Predictions - February 11, 2024

*Live* Chiefs have spread the ball around already. I think they’ll do enough to get MVS to clear this over.

Under in 8/12 with McKinnon active. 49ers allowed avg RB reception of 6.9 yards, and rank 8th in DVOA vs the position group. McKinnon should take the hurry-up/2 min drill work.

Ronnie Bell just announced inactive.. This is a reach, BUT This is actually a Chris Conley revenge game against his former team, and he’s earned some playing time late in the season. Every half decade or so it seems like we get unlikely Super Bowl breakouts: David Tyree, Chris Matthews (Seattle WR who balled out in a losing effort against New England)… maybe Chris Conley? With Ronnie Bell inactive and Deebo inconsistently on the field with injury concerns.. who knows?

Tailing @nick_giffen

Line via DK: 11 of 12 games played, McKinnon has hit this over. Looks like he will play. Favorite bet of the game (except for Heads in the coin toss of course)

Cmon baby let’s play some defense folks!

Read why: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-player-props-fade-brandon-aiyuk-49ers-chiefs

Steak potatoes and Rashee Rice

PB

Via Brian Matthews

@ChrisRaybon

Tailing @Stuckey2

Touchdown Show at 11:30 am ET 🔜

Mr Mahomes scramble some of eggs for me

Projection: +1. For more, check out Fantasy Life.

@TheTDShow

@The_Oddsmaker

@Stuckey2

Raybon 1

Used my Super Bowl prop calculator tool (that can be accessed on our site) that showed a bigger edge going with the alt market on this prop

Made over 4-units backing mahomes on the spread as a favorite and ML as an underdog, not stopping the train here now. Purdy’s first superbowl appearance, I have all the reasons to side with the more experienced Team in the Chiefs. Actual bet: https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbetting/s/01PbSNbumB

https://www.actionnetwork.com/content/2024-super-bowl-pick-prediction-deebo-samuel-prop/embed High-volume gadget player perfect for Kyle Shanahan in the Super Bowl. Going to have writeup later in week on this but some key points -No. 1 in NFL among WRs w/ 20+ targets in YAC (8.7) -Expecting 3-5 Carries if not more as a spell to CMC instead of Elijah Mitchell -Fully healthy and fresh off 89 rec yds & 3 carries vs DET in NFC Chip

He is the one who will spell CMC, and I do think the 49ers will look to really establish the run. 3+ in 6/6 full playoff games as a niner.

Drinking the juice. Kelce should have a large role Sunday as the Niners defense is predicated on limiting explosive plays down the field, allowing offenses to take the short/underneath throws, which is where Kelce comes in.

Super Bowl podcast out now https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-action-network-sports-betting-podcast/id1004530793?i=1000644176620

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

💣

Over in 4 of his last 6 games, and finished with 68 yards (1 yards short) on 24 carries last week vs. Baltimore. The volume is key, and the Chiefs know their offensive tackles are their weakness, so feeding Pacheco the ball and trying to control time of possession will be important for KC. Last week, David Montgomery rushed for 93 yards on 15 carries (6.2 YPC) and Jahmyrr Gibbs added another 45 yards on 13 carries (3.8 YPC) and the Niners run defense is where you can beat them. Feels like another 20 carry game for Pacheco.

Going back to the well once again with Pacheco here. This is a number that he’s gone over in 4 straight, including all 3 playoff games The Chiefs are no longer the extreme-pass heavy team and using Pacheco has led to success. The 49ers have really struggled against the run in the playoffs, allowing 262 yards in 2 games In general, you can beat SF in the trenches where they are just 15th in DEF DVOA vs. the run Coin flip game, should see plenty of Pacheco usage here

Deciding whether to lay the points (-1.5 at -106) or the moneyline depends on how often you think the game lands on exactly one. Overall, games land on exactly 1 just above 4% of the time, and then you'd split that up depending on the win odds for the 49ers versus the Chiefs. So, it would seem as though it would land on the 49ers winning by one a bit more than 2% of the time. But in an 83-team sample in my database of teams my model viewed similarly to the 49ers, they have won by exactly 1 point 3.6% of the time. That's a small sample, but it's enough where I'd rather just ride with the moneyline rather than lay the points here. I have given the Chiefs a boost in my model due to their playoff success, and I think their defense is better than the 49ers', but even with that, I've still got the 49ers closer to where the market opened than where it is now. You can justify laying the 1.5 if you want, but for me, personally, I think the moneyline is the best route to go.

Collab with @charliedisturco

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