NFL Predictions, NFL Betting Analysis: Make Sharper Football Bets

Top NFL Betting Strategies for Winning This Season

Want to win more NFL bets this season? Action Network covers essential strategies, tips, and insights that can make your betting more profitable. Whether you are a beginner or an experienced bettor, our content will help you make smarter decisions.

Key Takeaways

• For a quick start, check out our quick “How to Bet on Sports” guide for an overview, or our more comprehensive Sports Betting Education 101 series. Our Sports Betting Glossary is also a helpful resource. 

• This page will host the latest in expert NFL predictions & betting analysis.

• Understanding key NFL betting types, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals (aka over/unders), is essential for developing effective betting strategies.

• Advanced betting options like parlays, teasers, and prop bets can offer higher potential returns but require a deeper understanding of the game.

• Staying informed about NFL team news, NFL injury reports, and expert analyses housed here significantly enhances betting decision-making, improving the chances of successful wagers.

Understanding NFL Odds and Betting Lines

There are various ways to bet on an NFL game. A popular approach is the betting spread, but there’s also moneyline and totals betting. Each market type offers unique strategies that seasoned bettors use to maximize their chances of winning.

Point spreads handicap the favored team by assigning a point value, while moneyline bets involve picking the outright winner without considering the point spread. The odds associated with these bets reflect the cost to place that particular bet, often expressed as a negative number for favorites and a positive number for underdogs.

Point spreads are influenced by team skill and various factors, determining the margin of victory needed for a bet to win. Recognizing these margins, known as key numbers, is essential, as they frequently occur in football games. Additionally, the “juice” or commission charged by sportsbooks affects the required winning percentage to break even.

With a firm grasp of these basics, you’re ready to explore the popular types of NFL bets. See here for the latest NFL odds.

Popular Types of NFL Bets

NFL betting offers several popular types of bets, each with its own strategies and potential rewards. The main types are point spread, NFL moneylines, totals (over/under) bets, and NFL lines. Our content often covers guidance on picks and predictions for each. Each bet type appeals to different betting styles, whether you prefer predicting the outright winner, the margin of victory, or the combined score of both teams.

Let's break down each of these bet types in detail.

Point Spread Betting

Point spread betting is a performance-based measure that handicaps the favored team by assigning a point value, making the game more balanced for betting purposes. For instance, if the Kansas City Chiefs style have a point spread of -7, they must win by more than seven points for a bet on them to win. Conversely, if the underdog has a +7 spread, they must win or lose by fewer than seven points for the bettor to win.

A practical example is the 49ers vs. Seahawks Monday Night Football game where the 49ers might be -5 favorites. To cover the spread, the 49ers need to win by more than five points. If they win by exactly five points, the bet is a push, and the stakes are refunded. This type of betting requires a keen understanding of team performances and the ability to predict the margin of victory.

Each point spread bet has specific odds, often expressed as -110. This means you need to wager $110 to win $100.

Moneyline Betting

Moneyline betting is the simplest way to bet. In this method, you select which team will win the game outright without any point spread considerations. The moneyline odds are expressed as positive or negative numbers, indicating the underdog and the favorite, respectively. For example, a positive number like +200 means a $100 bet will yield $200 if the underdog wins, while a negative number like -150 means you need to bet $150 to win $100 if the favorite wins.

In moneyline betting, the outcome is straightforward:

• If your chosen team wins, you win the bet.

• In cases of a tie on a moneyline bet with a 2-way line, it results in a push, meaning the bet is refunded.

• If it’s a 3-way line, a tie results in a loss.

This simplicity makes moneyline betting a popular choice for many bettors.

Totals Betting (Over/Under)

Totals betting, also known as over/under betting, focuses on the combined score of both teams in a game. Oddsmakers set a predicted total, and bettors wager on whether the actual combined score will be over or under this number. For instance, if the total is set at 48.5, a bet on the over wins if the combined score is 49 or more, while a bet on the under wins if it’s 48 or fewer.

The payout in totals betting is determined by your bet on the total. If you bet on the over and the total score exceeds the set number, you win. Conversely, if you bet on the under and the total is lower, you win. If the total points scored match the line set by the sportsbook, the bet is considered a push, and the wager is reimbursed.

Analyzing team scoring trends and performance on both sides of the ball can significantly influence your over/under predictions. This form of betting adds another layer of excitement to NFL games, as every point scored can affect your wager’s outcome.

Advanced NFL Betting Options

For those looking to elevate their betting game, advanced NFL betting options can offer higher payouts but come with increased risks. These include parlay betting, teaser betting, and prop betting. Each of these options requires a deeper understanding of the game and strategic thinking to maximize potential returns.

Now, let’s delve into these advanced betting options.

Parlay betting involves combining multiple bets into a single wager, significantly raising the stakes. In a parlay, you can combine 3 to 12 bets, but all selections must win for the bet to payout. This increases potential returns but also the risk, as losing a single bet means losing the entire parlay.

The allure of parlay betting lies in its potential for higher payouts because outcomes are harder to predict. For instance, adding more selections to NFL parlays increases potential winnings, reflecting the decreased likelihood of winning the bet. Same-game parlays, where multiple outcomes from a single game are combined, are becoming increasingly popular due to their potential for larger payouts. Use our parlay betting calculator to determine your odds.

Teaser Betting

Teaser betting is a type of parlay that allows bettors to adjust the point spreads for a lower-risk wager compared to standard parlays. Typically, a teaser involves a two-team bet with a six-point adjustment to the spreads, offering a payout similar to a standard bet at odds of -120. This adjustment makes it easier to win the bet, although the potential payout is lower.

Teasers are advantageous for navigating critical scoring margins, as many NFL games result in victory margins of 1 to 7 points. By shopping for the best odds and using 6-point teasers, bettors can enhance their chances of long-term profitability. Check out our NFL Teasers betting guide here.

Prop Betting

Prop betting focuses on specific events within a game that are not directly related to the final outcome. These bets can include metrics like total touchdowns, player yards, or even novelty props during major events. Prop bets have grown in popularity, offering more opportunities for bettors compared to traditional bet types.

Most prominent American sportsbooks offer a variety of NFL player props, making it easier for bettors to find value in these markets. Prop bets enhance game engagement and can often be easier to exploit than traditional betting markets. Check out all of Action Network’s NFL Props and NFL Prop Projections.

Live Betting on NFL Games

Live betting on NFL games has gained immense popularity. This form of betting allows you to place wagers after the game has started, with odds evolving in real time based on the game’s progress. This offers a unique opportunity to capitalize on shifting dynamics, such as a favorite team conceding an early touchdown, which might present more favorable comeback odds.

Sportsbooks update live betting odds during breaks in play, like commercial breaks and timeouts, ensuring that the odds reflect the current state of the game. Additionally, promotional codes from top sportsbooks can enhance your live betting experience by providing bonuses that encourage participation.

Best NFL Sportsbooks for 2024-25 Season

Choosing the best sportsbook can make all the difference in your betting experience. Top NFL sportsbooks for the 2024-25 season include DraftKings, known for its extensive range of NFL prop bets, and FanDuel, which excels in both traditional sports betting and daily fantasy sports offerings. DraftKings also offers daily odds boosts, enhancing potential winnings on key sporting events.

BetMGM provides a user-friendly interface and a variety of welcome offers. Caesars Sportsbook is another reliable option, especially for new bettors. It has a strong presence in all states where online sports betting is legal.

Checking out these sportsbooks can help you find the best odds and betting options to maximize returns.

Make sure you take advantage of the best sportsbook offers:

• Fanatics Sportsbook Promo Code
• bet365 Promo Code
• BetMGM Bonus Code
• DraftKings Promo Code
• Caesars Sportsbook Promo Code
• ESPN BET Promo Code

If you are a Bears bettor in Illinois, be on the lookout for the launch of bet365 and the bet365 Illinois bonus code!

How to Bet Legally on the NFL

Legal restrictions on NFL betting vary by state in the U.S., with some states allowing comprehensive betting options while others have specific prohibitions. In states where NFL betting is legalized, it’s crucial to place wagers through licensed sportsbooks to ensure regulatory compliance and secure betting. You can find our state-by-state betting guides here.

Expert Analysis and Weekly NFL Predictions

Expert analysis is key to making informed betting decisions. NFL experts examine critical game factors, offering free predictions and insights to guide your bets. Our seasoned analysts provide Weekly expert NFL picks that provide valuable information, helping you navigate the complexities of sports betting.

Platforms like Action Network allow users to monitor their bets and expert picks live during games, enhancing the betting experience. Keeping up with expert analysis and weekly NFL predictions and picks can give you a competitive edge, increasing your chances of making profitable bets throughout the NFL season.

Super Bowl Futures and Betting Odds

NFL Futures betting involves predicting long-term outcomes, such as which team will win the Super Bowl. Current favorites often have lower odds, indicating a higher probability of winning. For Super Bowl LIX, scheduled for Sunday, February 9, 2025, the Kansas City Chiefs are the favorites with odds at +450, while the 49ers and Bills are also significant contenders. Long shots like the New England Patriots offer higher payouts but come with increased risk, with odds as high as +30000 for the Super Bowl in 2025. Understanding implied probability and analyzing team performance trends can help identify value in futures betting.

Also, most sportsbooks will offer futures markets on who will win the AFC North, AFC East, AFC South, AFC West, NFC North, NFC East, NFC South, and NFC West divisions.

NFL Team News & Odds

Staying updated with NFL team news and odds is crucial for making informed bets. Aside from NFL predictions, Action Network provides detailed team pages with breaking news, player stats, injury reports, and weekly odds breakdowns. This information helps bettors understand how team performance and injuries can influence betting outcomes.

Watching the proportion of money versus the number of bets can offer valuable insights. A large discrepancy indicates professional bettors are likely backing a particular team, such as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, providing a strategic advantage.

NFL Public Betting

NFL Public betting data can be an invaluable resource for bettors. Monitoring the percentage of bets and money placed on a team helps identify where professional gamblers are placing their wagers.

This information can boost your win rates by highlighting sharp betting opportunities.

NFL Against the Spread (ATS) Records

Betting against the NFL spread (ATS) is one of the most popular forms of NFL betting. Despite its popularity, it can be challenging due to the accuracy of spread makers. Monitoring teams’ performance against the spread throughout the season helps bettors make more informed decisions based on data.

For example, understanding how the Kansas City Chiefs perform against the spread can provide insights into their reliability in covering the spread, aiding in more strategic betting.

NFL Injury Report

NFL Injuries significantly impact NFL betting, as the loss of key players can dramatically alter a team’s winning prospects. Seasoned bettors scour injury reports before making a wager to account for potential absences.

PRO Analysis

The Action Network’s PRO tools provide advanced betting analyses, elevating your strategy. These tools track the best odds across books and highlight top trends for individual contests, adding confidence to your wagers. Insights and predictions from professional bettors and projections can help identify optimal betting opportunities.

Members gain access to exclusive betting and money percentages, understand the actions of professional bettors, and receive analytical insights and game previews based on data from reputable experts. The PRO Report serves as a comprehensive resource for identifying the best betting strategies for each game using advanced signals.