Joe Dellera
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Joe Dellera
Last 30d: 68-74-5 (+5.55u)
Joe Dellera's Picks
Today
Pending
J.Brunson o7.5 Ast-105
NYK
@NOP
1u
12/22 1:00 AM
The Knicks face off against the Pelicans who are starting to get some of their players back from injury. The key here is the Pelicans allow the third-most assists per game to their opponents. So while the individual defensive players are strong between Murphy, Herb Jones, and Dejounte, the team defense is susceptible.
They have been getting cooked on the interior with just rookie Yves Missi playing the majority of the minutes at the 5, and while I like KAT here, the line is a bit high for me. The player that sets KAT up though? Sign me up.
Brunson is averaging 7.7 assists per game on 12.3 potentials. In the one matchup with KAT against the Pelicans, Brunson converted for 9 assists in just 27 minutes due to a Knicks blowout.
Considering the Pelicans have the fourth-worst Adjusted Defense in the league and allow a plethora of assists to their opponents, I’ll back Brunson, the clear head of the snake to set up his teammates.
24
3
K.Durant o29.5 Pts-105
DET
@PHX
1u
12/22 2:00 AM
The Suns take on the Pistons today and they will be without Devin Booker. In his absence, I’m turning to Kevin Durant.
Durant has been lethal this season and is scoring 26.4 points per game with a 59.3 eFG% as he remains as efficient as ever. Although he has yet to play without Book this season, when Booker sat last season KD averaged 32.1 ppg.
This season, when KD plays alongside Booker, he scores 32.7 points per 100 possessions. Without Booker? It jumps to an eye popping 44.5 points per 100.
This matchup against the Pistons is exploitable. Their defense is below average and they get roasted in the midrange. Without Booker, I expect KD to score.
29
3
🌟 Karl-Anthony Towns to be an Eastern Conference All Star+240
1u
I'm expecting a big bump from KAT on the offensive side of the ball as he returns to the Center position. It should dramatically impact his spacing and his shot profile while also seeing a bump in rebounds not playing alongside Gobert.
Couple that with the NY Boost and the comments surrounding Embiid, Paul George, etc regarding their health/health management there are multiple outs for him to get there.
I love that players designated as a replacement will also be graded as winners.
31
19
Jalen Williams to be a Western Conference All Star-110
1u
Aligned with @TurveyBets
17
11
Julius Randle 5+ Assists per game+100
1u
27
13
Jalen Brunson o6.5 Assists per Game-115
1u
39
14
Chris Paul over 6.9 Assists per game-115
1u
21
14
LaMelo Ball over 3.3 3s per Game-130
1u
21
12
Victor Wembanyama o11.5 Rebounds per Game-110
1u
Via @TurveyBets
32
13
Luka Doncic over 9.2 Assists per Game-110
1u
Via @TurveyBets
23
14
Michael Porter Jr over 2.8 3s per Game-115
1u
This is my favorite one
15
13
Michael Porter Jr over 2.8 3s per Game - 24/25 Regular Season-115
1.5u
Relogging, not doubling down.
The Denver Nuggets will be adjusting to life without KCP this season and I expect a boost for MPJ.
MPJ has averaged 2.7, 3.0, and 2.8 3s per game in the three healthy seasons he’s played in despite the Nuggets playing at a Bottom 6 Pace in the league in each of those seasons (per NBA Advanced Stats).
There’s reason to believe in a change here with the acquisition of Russell Westbrook along with the injection of Christian Braun or Julian Strawther into the starting lineup instead of KCP. This is a significantly faster and more athletic rotation and Denver will be able to play at an overall faster Pace. Further, those players are not nearly as good as KCP from shooting beyond the arc. MPJ will need to absorb a greater number of 3 point attempts to maintain the team’s spacing. He is a deadeye shooter with a 41.0% mark from behind the arc throughout his career.
Even if we see a decline in efficiency due to an uptick in volume, 2.8 3s per game is too low for MPJ.
I’ll take over 2.8 3s per game.
19
14
Ja Morant Season Assists Leader+13000
0.1u
Discussed on Buckets
19
8
Lamelo Ball Season Assists Leader+4000
0.1u
19
10
JALEN WILLIAMS TO AVERAGE 23+ PPG, JALEN WILLIAMS TO AVERAGE 4+ APG +350
1u
Team Specials on DK
- NO Giddey this year and they replaced him with lower usage guys in Caruso and Hartenstein.
- In 2 games w/o Giddey, Williams averaged 22.5 ppg
- Mins w/ and w/o Giddey last season
- 25.554 points per 100 poss w/ Giddey
- 35.029 w/o Giddey
- About half an assist bump w/o Giddey and averaged 3.5 per game last year
23
13
V. WEMBANYAMA TO AVERAGE 23+ PPG, V. WEMBANYAMA TO AVERAGE 12+ RPG+265
0.5u
17
9
Victor Wembanyama to avg 5+ Blocks per Game+370
0.25u
Under player averages
Averaged 4.455 post ASB last season
21
10
V. WEMBANYAMA TO AVERAGE 25+ PPG, C. PAUL TO AVERAGE 8+ APG, SA SPURS TO WIN 40+ GAMES+800
0.12u
22
9
V. WEMBANYAMA TO LEAD THE LEAGUE IN RPG, SA SPURS TO WIN 35+ GAMES +1500
0.1u
19
12
Luka DONCIC TO AVERAGE 10+ RPG, L. DONCIC TO AVERAGE 10+ APG+1000
0.1u
Luka averaged this post ASB last season
24
12
KAT 22+ ppg +200
0.25u
🎙️ Discussed on Cash That Podcast
12
8
KAT 24+ ppg +500
0.1u
17
9
Michael Porter Jr 20+ ppg+475
0.1u
Discussed on Cash That Podcast
20
10
Andre Drummond Regular Season Rebound Leader+7500
0.1u
With you @TurveyBets
24
11
KAT Regular Season Rebound Leader+5500
0.1u
26
10
LeBron James to average 8+ Rebounds per Game+500
0.25u
19
12
JALEN WILLIAMS TO AVERAGE 20+ PPG, OKC THUNDER TO WIN THE CHAMPIONSHIP (+10000000 DK)
1u
Team Specials on DK
- This is a “free” boost on OKC to win the title in my opinion, he averaged 19.1 last season primarily w/ Giddey and if he DOES NOT average 20+ ppg, it would dramatically affect my opinion of OKC anyway
***- This is how I'm betting OKC to win the title***
25
13
Mike Budenholzer NBA Coach of the Year+1400
0.25u
15
Futures
Golden State Warriors o41.5-110
2024-25 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
Bet on 7/16
13
Boston Celtics u58.5-110
2024-25 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
0.5u
45
12
Orlando Magic u47.5-110
2024-25 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
Bet on 7/16 - discussed on Buckets
46
13
Memphis Grizzlies o45.5-115
2024-25 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
1.5u
Bet on 7/16 - discussed on Buckets
37
15
Keegan Murray+10000
2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player
0.1u
🎙️ Discussed on the Cash That Podcast
Bet on 8/21
61
18
Memphis Grizzlies o49.5+150
2024-25 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
0.25u
30
8
Memphis Grizzlies o54.5+600
2024-25 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
0.1u
27
8
Mitchell Robinson+30000
2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year
0.1u
I am ready to get hurt again, and by I, I mean Mitch
33
17
Bennedict Mathurin+2500
2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year
0.5u
Play down to +1500
I like Mathurin's opportunity here as a guy that plays primarily off the bench. He's a microwave scorer and even though he's coming off of injury, he can easily score 17-18 ppg this season. He had better splits post ASG and at home, those are things that tend to regulate as players get more seasoned and watch more tape.
25
13
Payton Pritchard+10000
2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year
0.05u
For Pritchard, he continues to improve and Boston just destroys teams. He could sneakily score even 13 ppg this year and that's assuming perfect health from Boston who is coming off a Championship. It's worth a sprinkle.
20
12
San Antonio Spurs o39.5+200
2024-25 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
0.25u
Discussed on Cash That Podcast
21
9
Bogdan Bogdanovic+15000
2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year
0.1u
11/18
32
12
Zach Edey+5500
2024-25 NBA Rookie of the Year
0.15u
12/14
27
15
Past Performance | |||
---|---|---|---|
Yesterday | 2-2-0 | 50% | -0.83u |
Last 7 Days | 14-14-1 | 48% | -0.96u |
Last 30 Days | 68-74-5 | 46% | 5.55u |
All Time | 3501-4192-130 | 45% | 215.68u |
Top Leagues | |||
---|---|---|---|
NBA | 2514-3072-107 | 44% | 180.58u |
WNBA | 153-156-2 | 49% | 17.44u |
OLYMPIC_BASKETBALL | 50-76-0 | 40% | 17.13u |
MLB | 471-433-11 | 51% | 4.97u |
NCAAB | 56-53-0 | 51% | 1.09u |
UFL | 0-1-0 | 0% | -0.10u |
World Cup | 0-1-0 | 0% | -0.15u |
ATP | 1-2-0 | 33% | -0.17u |
UFC | 0-2-0 | 0% | -0.40u |
NFL | 211-284-7 | 42% | -0.44u |
NHL | 9-17-0 | 35% | -0.94u |
NASCAR | 2-16-0 | 11% | -0.97u |
Golf | 0-8-0 | 0% | -1.55u |
NCAAF | 16-21-0 | 43% | -1.76u |
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