|SCHEDULED||OPEN||PRO LINE |
ProjectionsOur model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections.
|CONS.||GRADE||EDGE||BEST ODDS||BET %||MONEY %|
Sat 10/08, 12:07 AM
A lot of factors are considered by expert MLB bettors, both in terms of on-field performance and the betting market. For example, many smart bettors are keenly aware of line movement and which sportsbooks post the best prices. But one of the most important factors is building out MLB projections that can be measured against lines in the market.
How MLB Projections Work
There are many ways to build MLB projections, be it with a statistical model, using the betting market as a guide, or something else. And even within a statistical model, MLB handicappers can vary in how they approach building it, focusing on team performance, player performance, or perhaps a hybrid blend of both.
At The Action Network, our MLB projections are projection blends of several of our key betting experts. How they approach their final numbers on a game might vary, but the blend of those projections work to create a better, composite number that is our best reflection of what to expect in a game.
We project the three big markets in MLB betting -- spreads, over/unders, and moneylines -- and do so for every game in each season. Within our PRO Report -- part of our PRO subscription -- we'll measure those projections against lines for every U.S. book, so you can easily spot edges and potential bets.
A lot of our experts rely on advanced statistics to build their models and get their numbers on games, and of course it's incredibly important when building MLB projections to be aware of news and injuries.
Run lines don't move much considering the close nature of final scores in baseball. Using advanced stats, along with a variety of other important factors like recent play, advantages for a team on offense and defense, player values, news, predicting home-field advantage and rest situations is how our experts land on the numbers you see above.
The Action Network's MLB Projections
Our MLB experts will provide consensus projections for every MLB game's spread, moneyline, and over/under. On this page you'll then find those projections compared to the market in two ways: 1) the edge, which is the percentage difference between a sportsbook's odds vs. our projections and 2) a letter grade based on that edge.
The two comparisons are correlated, so don't stress about which you use. We show the edge to be transparent for bettors, and some advanced bettors will bet based on the Kelly criterion, which adjusts bet sizes based on projected edge. But if you just want to quickly eye things, the "A" through "F" grades are based on those edge numbers and might be easier to understand for novice bettors. Both comparisons are color-coded with the highest edges and "A" grades given a green coloring while negative edges and "F" grades will have red markings.
Spread projections will be compared to the consensus line in the market, but with baseball, spread numbers won't vary much no matter the book. The majority of baseball run-lines will be +/- 1.5 because of how close games can be.
If you're unfamiliar, spread bets are one of the most common wagers on MLB: They're simply bets on the margin of victory. Say the New York Yankees have a spread of -1.5 vs. the Miami Marlins. In that situation, a spread bet on the Yankees would cash if they won by a 2 runs or more. A bet on the Marlins at +1.5 would cash if they won the game outright or merely lost by 1 run.
When it comes to totals or over/unders, which are bets on the combined point output in a game, you'll see a total number posted at a sportsbook and you'll be able to bet the over or under. Say the Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays game has a total of 8 runs: Bettors on the under would cash if the teams combined for 7 or fewer runs; over bettors would win at 9 or more. An exact total of 8 would be a push and the bet would be voided.
In moneyline betting, which is a common wager type just on which team will win the game outright, everything here depends on the likelihood of a team winning (the odds a book will post) vs. how likely our MLB projections say that team is to win.
It's easiest if you think about moneyline odds in terms of $10 or $100 increments. Say the Kansas City Royals are +250 on the moneyline vs. the Atlanta Braves, who are -290. If you bet $10 on the Royals and they won, you would receive $25 in profit. A bet on the Braves, who are favored, would require $29 bet to win $10 in the event of a victory.