NFL Props

Scored in 8 of his last 9 postseason games and is chalk #WhatCouldGoWrong?

Tailing @Stuckey2 @nick_giffen

Tailing @ChrisRaybon

Tailing @Stuckey2 @ChrisRaybon @Zerillo basically the whole company

Tailing @AnthonyDabbundo

Tailing @ChrisRaybon

DK Boost

Dk boost

TD Fortson. 29% of career receptions TDs. 38% of targets this year inside the 10.

Also on some tails of Koerner and Raybon but not logging everything (Quez under, Chiefs first TO, Chiefs first punt over, Anthem under)

@nick_giffen

As heard on Convince Me from @SimonHunterNFL

As heard on Convince Me https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.362264089&selectionId[0]=11890079&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

Tailing @ChrisRaybon

Tailing @ChrisRaybon

Great matchup vs KC

#nickgiffen @nick_giffen

#nickgiffen @nick_giffen

#seankoerner @The_Oddsmaker

#gillesgallant @GDAWG5000

#gillesgallant @GDAWG5000

#nickgiffen @nick_giffen

#chrisraybon @ChrisRaybon

#simonhunter @SimonHunterNFL

Bet at FanDuel. Tailing @nick_giffen with his top bet for The Touchdown Show.

Using this to remind you to play THE MOST FUN SB BET YOU CAN MAKE: Both Travis & Jason Kelce to score a TD +20000 at FD Travis, duh. But Jason? Sirianni talked in Oct about getting Jason eligible and getting him a fullback dive or screen to use his nimbleness. Travis just brought up a Jason TD a month ago today on the Kelce bros pod. Where there's smoke there's fire...?? Use this link to bet it right now at FanDuel: https://www.actionnetwork.com/api/link-fdbs?marketId%5B0%5D=42.361395764&selectionId%5B0%5D=52217715&shareBetId=10004_-443033149

Sanders most playoff rushing yards proxy +900 at bet365 Needs 107 to pass CMC for the lead, and beyond that just needs 28 more than Gainwell and no one else to have a monster game. Eagles best run DVOA, EPA, explosives. Miles is the guy, capable of ripping off a big one esp vs this bad run D. Six games this year with 90+ so about 1/3 chance we're in range, and he should see more snaps and carries in a closer must win game. Koerner likes Miles to lead this game in rushing as one of his top props. This is a great escalator for that. It's up at FD too. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/super-bowl-exotic-props-plus-money-bets-eagles-vs-chiefs?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=brandonanderson

Bet it now: https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v1/deeplink?marketId=42.361501729&selectionId=48074615&context=qs-articles D TDs weirdly common in SB: 21 in 56g, so 37.5% chance in any SB. 20/21 were scored by the winning team, so it's always a good idea to play ATD for the team you like to win. Winning team has score a D TD in 30% of all SB, and we have 15 D TDs in the last 30 SB, one every two! That makes a defensive td literally 50/50 aka +100. You can play either D to score a TD at +300 FD if you prefer long shot addition: any D TD + D MVP +3000 DK. it's correlated and has happened in 4 of the last 18 SB (18%). https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/super-bowl-exotic-props-plus-money-bets-eagles-vs-chiefs?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=brandonanderson

My top ATD threat by far. 15 rushing TDs in 17g, at least one in 11/17 (65%). Can't stop the push sneak. Favorite Eagles rushing prop: o1.5 rushing TDs +120 DK. Over that in 11/16 wins (69%).

Love DeVonta -- my SB MVP pick +3300 FD. That's my top Smith play but I want to make sure you see this under props. Bet MVP here: https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v1/deeplink?marketId=42.357879183&selectionId=16602548&context=qs-articles Before weird SF game, 61+ yards in 7 straight. Averaged 6.4/93 in those games. KC #31 DVOA vs WR1, #26 vs right where Smith plays. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/super-bowl-exotic-props-plus-money-bets-eagles-vs-chiefs?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=brandonanderson

If I had to bet on one KC WR to have a big game, it's JuJu. He's their zone buster and he's boom or bust. 3 or fewer catches in 10g but 7g with 5/74+. Don’t bother with the normal line stuck in the middle, but sprinkle the outlier.

Great pass blocker, could see elevated snap count vs that pass rush and screens are a huge weapon vs pressure. Philly #24 DVOA vs RBs. Boom or bust so alts only, liked it more when CEH wasn't a threat too.

Barstool/Rivers via @wheatonbrando

Fav Mahomes alt. 325+ in 4 of his last 6 healthy playoff games

My fav Mahomes prop. 26+ completions in 7 straight playoff games, not counting the two he left hurt. This line is right at his regular season avg but it's more Mahomes SZN in the playoffs. Should be script proof cuz he'll pass either way. I like Mahomes more comp than Hurts -265 FD too.

Writeup: https://www.actionnetwork.com/content/eagles-super-bowl-same-game-parlay/embed

Analysis on @TheTDShow Sunday at 11am ET Bet at DK

Analysis on @TheTDShow Sunday at 11am ET FD QuickSlip: https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.361501729&selectionId[0]=27531362&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

Analysis on @TheTDShow Sunday at 11am ET FD QuickSlip: https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.361501725&selectionId[0]=44578642&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

Under 5.5 in 12 of 19 (63%)

#chrisraybon @ChrisRaybon

#stuckey @Stuckey2

#stuckey @Stuckey2

3 or fewer in 16 of 19g (84.2%). True u3.5 odds would be -533 at that rate. (2 or fewer in 11 of 19g (57.8%); true u2.5 odds would be -124.)

Split with receptions

#gillesgallant @GDAWG5000

#gillesgallant @GDAWG5000

Luke Swain / VegasRefund best bet

Luke Swain / VegasRefund best bet

Giles best bet

Giles best bet

Anderson best bet

Under in 4/L5, and gets a brutal matchup against the Eagles secondary (especially since he’s been playing more on the outside of late - and I think that continues on Sunday). Only one catch of 20+ air yards this season (2 targets), and only 3 of his 29 total targets between 10 and 17 air yards came in the last 5 games. MVS, Toney, Kelce, Moore, Watson are all bigger threats to see deep shots, and the eagles allowed the 6th lowest aDOT as is. And I’m not too concerned about JuJu’s YAC potential, since the matchups should make it tough for him to gain significant separation.

Raybon 3

Raybon 1

Raybon 2

Stuckey 3

Bet at FanDuel. This is a volume play and reflective of his receptions line. O1.5 receptions is -135 to -150. If he gets at least 2 receptions, high probability this goes over. In 16 career games when he’s had 2+ catches, he’s had at least 12 yards in 13 of them. One of those games was vs Chiefs last season. Chiefs ranked last in receptions to RB and 4th worst in yards allowed. Both Mixon and Etienne went over this mark. If you want to tail at FanDuel, use QuickSlip below and save some time: https://www.actionnetwork.com/api/link-fdbs?marketId%5B0%5D=42.361811849&selectionId%5B0%5D=40915793&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

#brandonanderson @wheatonbrando

Bet at Bet365. May have high ADOT but low volume. Only averaged 2 targets and 1 catch per game. Went under this number in 12/18 games this season and 6/10 games with MeCole Hardman out of lineup. Eagles allowed 4th-fewest yards to WR this season. JuJu and Toney both practicing and expected to play. My man @The_Oddsmaker has Watson projected at 12 yards. He could go over this mark in one catch but with such little volume, its more likely he isnt a factor in this game.

DK only book with no vig I have seen

Via @ChrisRaybon. Listen to the Super Bowl Prop a Palooza on the Action Network Podcast feed!

Via @The_Oddsmaker. Listen to the Super Bowl Prop a Palooza on the Action Network Podcast feed!

Raybon convinced me when he came on the favorites. Quickslip: https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.361733998&selectionId[0]=11890079&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

Bet at BetMGM. Doesn’t correlate with my Mahomes Anytime TD bet at all but this is kind of a hedge and bet on Eagles defense. Here’s some stats on why I’m betting this: -Since start of 2021 season, Chiefs have lost 9 games. Mahomes threw INT in 7 of them. -4 INT in 2 career Super Bowls. -Mahomes has thrown INT in 53% of all games since start of 2021 (25 INT total) -Eagles were 3rd in NFL with 17 INT.

Via @Stuckey2

Tailing @ChrisRaybon. Rest of the market at -160 to -180

DraftKings. Cleared in 14/18 full games, and the Eagles have allowed a primarily outside cornerback to hit this in 7/L8. He’s cleared concussion protocol, so I’m expecting his full allotment of snaps (and this line/price justifies the risk). He lead the NFL in tackles in both the run game and pass game amongst CBs - and he should be heavily involved in coverage against both AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith. Eagles allowed the 8th most tackles in the regular season.

Under 11.5 long in 12 of 19 (64%).

@nick_giffen

#chrisraybon @ChrisRaybon

#nickgiffen @nick_giffen

#seankoerner @The_Oddsmaker also bet T. Townsend first punt o46.5 yards vs eagles and miles sanders to lead game in rush yards +175

#nickgiffen @nick_giffen

#chrisraybon @ChrisRaybon

#nickgiffen @nick_giffen

#chrisraybon @ChrisRaybon

Action island

Tailing @nick_giffen here. Limited to .96 by Hard Rock.

#stuckey @Stuckey2

Bet at FanDuel. 5 rush TD in 13 career playoff games. Eagles were 29th in rush yards allowed to QBs and 31st in rush yards per carry during regular season. I believe Mahomes ankle will be healthy enough to scramble in RZ which makes this mispriced. Should be +400. If you have FanDuel and want to tail, use QuickSlip and save yourself some time: https://www.actionnetwork.com/api/link-fdbs?marketId%5B0%5D=42.361501729&selectionId%5B0%5D=11054744&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

Under 9.5 in 15-of-19g (79%). Only 5-of-88 carries (5.7%) have gone for 10+. Value on u9.5 to -170, u8.5 to -119.

1 or fewer rec in 9-of-14 (64.3%) with Goedert active. Two lowest route participation rates (27%, 52%) have come in the 2 playoff games. Edge at u1.5 below -180.

See my analysis on Action Island Have 60% under, bet to about -140 FanDuel QuickSlip: https://www.actionnetwork.com/api/link-fdbs?marketId[0]=42.361624104&selectionId[0]=7017917&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

Full write up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/super-bowl-props-chiefs-vs-eagles-picks-patrick-mahomes-jalen-hurts?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=propbetguy

DK

Bet at Bet365. Chiefs gave up 2nd most TD to slot. 9 TD to TE. He below +200 everywhere else. Scored vs Chiefs when Eagles hosted them in W4 in 2021.