WNBA Props

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Johannes’ playing time took a big hit after Sabrina Ionescu returned, and I was fading her around that stretch. However, her usage has quietly climbed with the second unit, making this a sneaky buy-low spot now that I think the market has adjusted a bit too far. The Aces are also a favorable matchup for 3-point specialists like Johannes. If Carter sees an expanded role with Wilson out, that’s another subtle boost. Carter is known much more for her offense than her defense, so there’s a decent chance Johannes gets an extra clean look or two while they’re matched up. I’m projecting Johannes closer to -145 to make at least two 3-pointers. It also correlates nicely with Carter’s increased role tonight, so I’ll be playing them together as a parlay as well.

Chennedy Carter has had one of the stranger seasons in the league. She came in as an instant scoring punch off the bench for the Aces, then started venting frustration on social media about her role. She missed a few games with a leg injury, returned on a minutes restriction, then missed five more with an “illness.” Becky Hammon runs a pretty tight ship, so it’s hard to know what was actually going on behind the scenes. Whatever the case, Carter looked like her usual self last game, scoring 11 points in just 16 minutes. Now with A’ja Wilson ruled OUT for the Commissioner’s Cup Championship, the Aces need someone to help replace all of that offense. I’m projecting Carter for around 20 minutes tonight, and she’s been an elite scorer whenever she’s on the floor. She’s averaging 33.1 points per 100 possessions with A’ja on the court, but that jumps to an absurd 45.4 points per 100 with Wilson off. There’s obviously a wide range of outcomes given everything that’s happened this season, but I have her projected closer to 15 points with around a 63% chance to clear 12.5. She’s exactly the type of player I like to ladder as well because her ceiling is enormous.