Latest Betting Picks

📚Onyx

Cheating Astros are a tough team to root for. Extra innings high risk.

THE BAT X is forecasting 16.71 pitching outs for Shane McClanahan. Oddsmakers are implying 14.96 pitching outs, so I believe there is value here. If you take the over, you'd be projected to win 58% of the time resulting in a 39% ROI with expected value of $38.85 (based on a $100 wager). This play is good down to at least -113. Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty's sports betting projections at EV Analytics https://evanalytics.com/subscribe/mlb?ref=zdlkmgz

Eduardo Rodriguez is the definition of a fraud, and I’m thrilled to fade him here. His 2.45 ERA looks good until you find out he has a 4.92 xERA buried underneath it. A gap of nearly two and a half runs is the perfect example of a pitcher pitching over his head and being due for regression. Rodriguez’s other estimators also sit around 4.5. He’s simply gotten lucky for far too long. The Cardinals offense ranks 7th in wRC+ versus left handed pitching and is striking out just 17% of the time against lefties, the second best mark in the league. Rodriguez has a really tough matchup tonight considering he���s striking out only 17.9% of hitters. I think St. Louis jumps on him early. I don't need to overthink the other side. Kyle Leahy is a converted reliever making his first real go at it as a starter. Leahy has a brutal .296 xBA and ranks in the worst percentile in baseball in hard hit rate. He’s simply not very good, and his 1.57 WHIP isn’t ideal either. The Diamondbacks offense has been bad this season, but there’s no excuse here. Both bullpens rank outside the top 15 in ERA and are regressing quickly, especially Arizona’s bullpen. The St. Louis bullpen is also heavily worked right now and likely won’t have its best arms available. This total is just too low. Our model makes the fair total 11.2 runs. Give me the over 8.5.