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The Thunder are massive favorites against the Brooklyn Nets out of the All-Star break. As a result, we may see limited need for their top players in this spot. Even though OKC has ruled out a number of key players including SGA and Jdub, that has not translated into a significant uptick in Usage for Chet Holmgren. We generally see that Usage distributed more to the Aaron Wiggins of the world. Chet has played 2 games without both SGA and Jdub this season and he scored 17 and 16 points. Without just Jdub he’s at 17.6 ppg and under this mark in 14/25 games. When OKC has closed as a double digit favorite, he’s also under this mark in 9/14 games. Given that this is Brooklyn’s second game in as many days and the spread, I think there are more paths to an under here for Chet than to an over.

@ChicagoFlow ⭐️⭐️ https://myaction.app/OhMhc6pCU0b

Mackey is going to be on fire for this one. Coming off a humbling loss to Michigan, lost at Assembly Hall to the Hoosiers, this is the spot for a Purdue blowout. Indiana by the way, on the road lost by 20 at Illinois, 14 at Michigan, 21 at Michigan State, 9 at Minnesota. You can beat them up and cover big numbers when they’re on the road. Matt Painter, btw, one of the best coaches in American ATS after a loss. Since he started at Purdue in 2005, he’s covered 56% following a loss, seventh best among Power Conference teams in the past 21 years. Perhaps some three point regression looms for opponents, recent games agaisnst MIchigan and Nebraska those two teams shot 46% from 3PT. Hoosiers made 12 three in their first meeting. A little regression and this could be a runaway.