Sean Koerner's Picks
Today
C.Oladokun o15.5 Rush Yds-110
DEN
20
13
KC
0.55u
FINAL 12/26
Oladokun is set to make his first career start after Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew both suffered season-ending injuries. Oladokun was a 7th-round pick by the Steelers back in 2022, and while we saw him drop back in relief last week 22 times, he’s also seen extensive action in the preseason over the last three seasons. As a preseason degenerate, I’ve seen most of his snaps over the years, and one thing he’s consistently flashed is his rushing upside.
In his 24 NFL dropbacks, he’s scrambled 3 times (12.5%) and averaged 4 yards per carry on those scrambles. In 99 preseason dropbacks, he’s scrambled 10 times (10%) while averaging 8.3 yards per scramble. Obviously that came against backups and softer defenses, but either way, he’s shown a willingness and ability to use his legs.
To put that into perspective, his ~10.5% scramble rate across 123 total regular-season and preseason dropbacks would rank 4th among qualified QBs this season, behind only Jayden Daniels, Tyrod Taylor, and Justin Fields. He doesn’t quite have the speed or burst of those QBs, but it’s important to note that he’s willing to take off if the situation calls for it.
Andy Reid will likely want to lean on the run and not put too much on Oladokun as a passer, but as 13.5-point home underdogs, we should still see a decent amount of dropbacks. I have him projected for around 34 dropbacks, which opens the door for 2–3 scrambles, if not more. That becomes even more likely against a Broncos defense that has generated the 2nd-highest pressure rate in the league. LT Josh Simmons is also done for the season, and his replacement, Esa Pole, has struggled, which could force Oladokun out of the pocket more often.
There’s obviously a wide range of outcomes here. Oladokun could struggle early and get benched for Shane Buechele, or he could continue to take sacks instead of scrambling like we saw at times last week. But I think there’s enough sneaky upside to take a flier on the over here. With the rest of this game being very tricky to cap, this is the angle I feel best about.
I’m projecting him closer to 19–20 rushing yards, with around a 59% chance to clear 15.5. Since there is a wide range of outcomes it also makes sense to take his alt overs but the market has done a fairly good job of pricing them, 30+ yards (+320) at FanDuel seems like the best value when looking at his alt overs as I’m projecting that closer to +290
326
Pending
Futures
Matthew Stafford o22.5-114
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Passing TDs
0.57u
Discussed this on The Favorites
70
Cooper Kupp u700.5-114
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Receiving Yards
1.14u
87
Javonte Williams u525.5-115
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
1.15u
48
Jared Verse o7.5-135
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Sacks
1.35u
49
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0-0-0 | 0% | 0.00u |
| Last 7 Days | 8-9-0 | 47% | -1.00u |
| Last 30 Days | 34-30-0 | 53% | 1.00u |
| All Time | 2009-1620-31 | 55% | 231.85u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 1183-936-19 | 55% | 138.43u |
| MLB | 298-247-4 | 54% | 42.72u |
| NCAAB | 262-211-3 | 55% | 28.30u |
| WNBA | 147-118-3 | 55% | 19.47u |
| NCAAF | 36-24-2 | 58% | 6.09u |
| UFL | 5-4-0 | 56% | 0.60u |
| Golf | 0-3-0 | 0% | -0.60u |
| NBA | 78-74-0 | 51% | -2.77u |
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Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.
Specialties
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- College football
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- Player projections
- Have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point