Rhamondre has certainly been on fire over the last four games heading into the Super Bowl, but I think we could see a dip in both his volume and efficiency in the big game. First, let’s talk about volume. The Patriots have won six straight games and went 14–3 in the regular season, and as a result, they’ve played with the lead 62% of the time this season. That’s allowed them to lean on the run at a higher rate due to game script. However, they still ranked 5th in pass rate over expected, so if they ever do get into a trailing script, we could see their designed rush attempt volume to RBs specifically plummet. We also saw TreVeyon Henderson essentially phased out last week, with Rhamondre racking up 25 carries. A lot of that shift likely had to do with the weather and the massive amount of snow we saw in the second half, as the Pats were simply trying to run out the clock and lean on their defense to keep Jarrett Stidham from beating them. As rare 4.5-point underdogs here, I’m projecting the Pats to play with the lead at a 30% lower rate than usual, which is very high for this late in the season. That means I’m projecting their overall dropback rate to go up and their designed rush attempts to go down, with Henderson mixing in closer to his typical role. That leaves Rhamondre projected closer to 13–13.5 rush attempts, making his Under 14.5 rush attempts (current line) very much in play. The reason I’d rather fade his yardage, though, is that I also expect a dip in efficiency. Rhamondre has been great this year, averaging 4.6 yards per carry, but the Pats have had by far the easiest schedule this season. The Seahawks defense ranks 1st in DVOA and will be his toughest matchup to date. Stevenson has led the league with a ridiculous 6.9 yards per carry against stacked boxes. However, Seattle uses a stacked box at the 2nd lowest rate in the league and instead tends to use seven defenders in the box at one of the highest rates. When facing seven defenders in the box, Rhamondre’s efficiency plummets, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry, which ranks 45th out of 48 qualified RBs. He also runs inside the tackles at the 4th highest rate, essentially straight into the teeth of the defense, which will make it tougher for him to rack up explosive runs. If he struggles early, we could also see Henderson mix in more, which would further lower Rhamondre’s volume. I’m projecting him closer to 49.5 rushing yards, with around a 60% chance to stay under 56.5.

Gave out of Prop-a-Palooza pod (now up!). Henry has a team low 11% target rate in the 1Q. Just 5 rec in 1Q in 20 games this year. Have him closer to 60% chance to stay under 4.5

Gave out of Prop-a-Palooza pod (now up!). Leads team in targets for the 2Q with a 20% target rate and 21% first read rate. Usually not part of the initial scripted offense to start the game but clearly a much bigger role in the 2Q/4 min/2 min offense. Proj him closer to 11 and a 60% chance he clears 8.5

Gave out of Prop-a-Palooza pod (now up!). Projecting Rhamondre to have the most rushing yards in the 1Q closer to +170 (note: this market is specific to him, not that he will have the “most rushing yards” in the 1Q). With the Pats potentially ending up in a rare trailing game script, have a higher % of his rush att coming earlier in the game than usual.

Gave out of Prop-a-Palooza pod (now up!). Proj closer to -125

Gave out on live prop show. Live now!

Gave out on live show

On this with @ChrisRaybon

Gave out on live show. Only has one rush att in the 3Q all season (was an aborted snap that went for 0 yards). Makes sense as the offense will be fairly scripted coming out of half and most of his scrambles come in the 2nd and 4th Q. AJ Barner handling the QB sneak/tush push play limits his upside here. Quickslip link: https://bit.ly/KOERNERSAM3QRUSH

Gave out on live show (live now!)

Gave out on live show (live now!). Also love attacking alt overs for this market

Elliss has only cleared this number in 5 of 18 games this season (28%), so on the surface this line already looks too high. My initial thought was that Robert Spillane’s ankle injury could justify it, since a Spillane absence might boost Elliss’ role. After digging in, that assumption turned out to be wrong. When Spillane has missed time this season, the Patriots have had Jack Gibbens wear the green dot and take over Spillane’s role, with Jahlani Tavai also seeing an uptick in playing time. Elliss’ role has remained essentially unchanged whether Spillane is active or not, so Spillane’s status for the Super Bowl doesn’t meaningfully impact Elliss’ projection. Seattle also sets up as a tougher matchup for Elliss to rack up tackles. He’s made a tackle on 20.6% of opponent run plays this season, but that rate is strongly correlated with how often teams run inside. The more inside runs, the higher his tackle rate. The Seahawks already rank 5th lowest in inside run rate, and with Zach Charbonnet done for the season and Kenneth Walker handling most of the workload, I’m projecting Seattle to run inside on just 35% of their attempts. That would rank 3rd lowest league wide, as Walker only runs inside on 33% of his carries, the 4th lowest rate among 49 qualified RBs. Charbonnet was much closer to league average at 49.5%. As a result, I have Elliss projected for roughly 3 run tackles and around 2.5 tackles on completed passes. His playing time should sit in the 65–70% range regardless of Spillane’s status, which reinforces the idea that this number is simply too high, likely due to the market overvaluing Spillane’s injury. I’m projecting Elliss closer to 5.8 tackles with around a 62% chance he stays under 6.5. Best price is currently the -118 at betMGM, but still in play at DK/FD/every other book offering tackle props. PrizePicks is offering it as well and would pair it with Leonard Williams Over 3.5 there (my other official tackle prop).

Have the full game spread closer to SEA -5, so pretty much in line with the market. Like getting the Pats at a key number for the 1H here at -120. Seattle winning the 1H by exactly 3 is probably the most likely outcome, so I wouldn’t recommend NE +2.5. Pats went a league-best 14-5-1 ATS in the 1H and typically get off to better starts than expected. Spillane trending toward playing helps and Emmanwori’s late-week ankle injury is a bit of an unknown, but if he’s less than 100% it could throw off Seattle’s game plan early enough to matter for the 1H market. Pats are sneaky at +3.5 for the 1H.

Gave out on Playbook Live

Gave out on Playbook Live