Sean Koerner

Sean Koerner

2438 Posts
Sean Koerner
2438 Posts
Role
Director of Predictive Analytics
Experience
20 years
Location
Los Angeles
Total Bets
4K
Followers
429.7K

Experience

Sean is one of the most decorated fantasy analysts in the industry, finishing first in the FantasyPros In-Season Accuracy standings in 2023 – which measures almost all fantasy football analysts on their in-season projections over the course of the season. You can read more about their methodology here. He also won the in-season ranking title in 2015, 2016 and 2017. This past season, he not only finished first overall, but was the No. 1 ranker out of 180+ entrants in running back, wide receiver and kicker rankings. He was top 10 in quarterbacks and tight ends, as well.

His 2023 performance was arguably the best in the contest’s history:

  • It was a record fourth No. 1 finish in the accuracy contest
  • He was the first expert in history to be No. 1 at multiple positions (RB + WR)
  • He was the expert to finish top 10 at every position

Sean started to become obsessed with sports betting & fantasy football ever since his father took him to Las Vegas for his annual fantasy football draft (at 8 years old). Sean started trying to project teams/players ever since and almost every action/decision he's made since has led him to where he is today. He began betting 20 years ago and began his sports betting/fantasy sports career as soon as he graduated from college in 2007. Prior to joining Action in 2018, he worked for MGM, RotoHog/FastPoint games, Bloomberg Sports, STATS.

Sean began his betting career in college by building sports betting models. He eventually turned into a bookie in college before moving to Vegas to work at Excalibur Sportsbook as a supervisor. He decided to move back to California to begin a career in fantasy sports/betting at RotoHog as a product manager. That was when he began entering his season-long fantasy projections into the FSTA contests and won the award for most accurate season-long NFL & MLB projections 2-3 times each.

He then moved to NY to work for Bloomberg Sports as a product manager and Head of Projections. They were eventually acquired by STATS where he maintained the same role as a product manager. That was when he began entering his weekly NFL rankings into the FantasyPros accuracy contest and won first place 3 years in a row from 2015-2017. He joined Action Network in 2018.

Education

Sean has a BA in Psychology from Long Beach State and took multiple advanced stats classes. He spent most of his time in the library reading stats/sports betting books, creating prediction models, and using them to bet on various sports (MLB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, etc.).

Specialties

  • NFL
  • College football
  • College basketball
  • Player projections
  • Have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point 
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1
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Sean Koerner's Picks

Today
Pending
Futures
Monroe Freeling o17.5+166
2026 NFL Player Draft Position
0.35u
This price just feels off. I have Freeling projected more in the 17–23 range, and unlike Fano earlier, he’s the type of player who probably doesn’t benefit from early chaos. If anything, he’s more likely to get squeezed by it. Getting +166 on that range is hard to pass up. Working through my mocks, the OL order has been fairly consistent early with Fano/Mauigoa off the board first, and Ioane likely going around 14. After that, the 4th OL off the board feels like a coin flip between Proctor and Freeling, with Proctor holding a slight edge. Freeling is a bit more raw for an OL prospect entering his rookie season, but he has a ton of upside. That gives him a wide range of outcomes. I could absolutely see a team reaching for him because of that upside, but in the top half of the first round, teams tend to lean toward safer, more polished prospects, which works against him going earlier. The biggest threat here is Detroit at 17. They feel likely to go OL, but Proctor vs. Freeling looks like a coin flip, and Freeling is still +250 to +300 to go 17. On top of that, Detroit has been one of the more unpredictable teams in the first round lately, and there’s even some noise about them trading up. So needing Freeling to land specifically at 17 with a volatile team in a coin-flip spot isn’t ideal for the under. There are also a few ways this range gets injected with chaos that could hurt Freeling going top 17: * Bain sliding out of the top 10 * Fano/Mauigoa falling further than expected * Sadiq (I have 19) or Mesidor (20) getting pulled into the mid-teens * we get a shocking/unexpected pick in the top half (a la Michael Penix in 2024). Those types of picks are more likely than people think All of that adds more competition in the 11–17 range and makes it tougher for Freeling to sneak inside 17. I currently have him going 21 to the Steelers. He’s in that tier where I wouldn’t be shocked if he goes earlier, even inside 17, but the more likely outcome still has him landing a few picks later. At +166, that’s enough value to bet on him falling just outside the top 17.
77
10
Past Performance
Yesterday0-0-00%
0.00u
Last 7 Days12-5-167%
3.34u
Last 30 Days45-43-151%
3.90u
All Time2161-1765-3555%
239.14u
Top Leagues
NFL1224-970-2055%
140.73u
MLB325-287-553%
39.92u
NCAAB313-254-355%
31.47u
WNBA147-118-355%
19.47u
NCAAF38-28-256%
5.17u
Golf8-8-050%
2.33u
World Baseball Classic2-0-0100%
1.00u
UFL5-4-056%
0.60u
NBA99-93-251%
-1.15u
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.