Seahawks vs. Cardinals Odds & Betting Predictions - September 26, 2025

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Yeah this is hitting

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Sam Darnold ⬆️ 217.5 Passing Yards (-114 @ BetRivers)(SEA) Darnold comes into this game averaging 221 yards per game on the season, but the context of those numbers makes the over look even stronger. In Week 1, he managed just 150 yards against San Francisco in what was a slow, grind-it-out game where Seattle only found the end zone once. Considering it was his debut with a new team—and Week 1 often plays out like an extended preseason—we can give him a pass there. Since then, Darnold has looked far sharper, throwing for 295 yards and two touchdowns against Carolina in Week 2 and adding 218 yards in Week 3 against New Orleans, despite sitting the entire 4th quarter due to a blowout. That signals there’s more ceiling to unlock than what the raw stat line shows. Now he gets Arizona, which has been a pure pass funnel to start the season. Through three weeks, the Cardinals have allowed the second-most passing yards in the NFL (826). They gave up 214 yards to rookie Spencer Rattler in Week 1, 328 to Bryce Young in Week 2, and 284 to Mac Jones in Week 3. Darnold is arguably a more polished passer than all three, and he now faces the same vulnerable secondary. On the flip side, Arizona has been stingy against the run, holding Alvin Kamara (11 for 45), Chuba Hubbard (10 for 38), and Christian McCaffrey (17 for 52) all in check. Where they’ve bled production is against RBs in the passing game, allowing 15 catches for 127 yards in the last two weeks alone. Combine that with Seattle being down Zach Charbonnet, their No. 2 back, and the script sets up for more reliance on Darnold’s arm. Given his improving form, Arizona’s glaring weakness through the air, and a modest line at just 217.5 yards, this is a great spot to back Darnold to go over.

Sure thing Coop

The Cardinals were 2.5-point favorites on Sunday morning but the line has swung Seattle's direction, with the Seahawks now a slight favorite. Typically that might be reason to fade the line move, but in this case it's telling a story about the injuries, always a key in a short-week game. Seattle gets S Julian Love and star CB Devon Witherspoon back healthy, restoring its talented secondary, while Arizona is dealing with cluster injuries in both the secondary and on offensive line. Star rookie CB Will Johnson is doubtful and three starters on the line are questionable, with Paris Johnson an especially big miss if out. I would've liked Seattle already in this spot, but we haven't lost value by waiting -- we gained valuable information on those injuries. A banged-up Cards secondary could have a hard time stopping a Seahawks passing attack that's been better than you think. Sam Darnold is PFF's No. 1 graded QB through three weeks! Seattle actually leads the NFL in DVOA through three weeks, top six on both offense and defense and lapping the field in special teams. Arizona has played the terrible Saints and Cardinals plus the 49ers' backups and not really looked impressive at any point. These teams are being rated as relative peers, but Seattle has been much better thus far. The Seahawks are also benefiting from new OC Klint Kubiak revitalizing the offense, while the Cardinals run game has gone completely missing with the OL injuries and the loss of run coordinator Klayton Adams to Dallas, and now James Conner is out too. Seattle has won seven straight against the Cards, with only one of those games within seven points. Give me Seattle -1 (BetRivers), and you can place part of your bet on Seahawks -6.5 at +200 (bet365) for a slight escalator if you think Seattle's dominance in this rivalry continues.

Small half-unit bet from my preferred of the two Action Island props I talked about

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Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Projection: 2.2. For more, check out the Fantasy Life player projections.

Melton has only cleared this in 1 of 3 games. In Week 2 he exited after 13 snaps and still recorded 2 tackles, so he could easily be 2 of 3 by now. Last year he was only a full-timer in a handful of games, and his 9 and 8 tackle two game stretch in Weeks 7-8 coincided with ~20% box usage; this year he has been over 90% at outside corner, which cuts run-support chances. He only has one tackle against the run so far this season (two misses), which is not ideal against a run-heavy Seattle team. Arizona has allowed a league-high 29.7 completions per game, nearly three more than the next-highest team! That has inflated DB tackle chances. Tonight should look different: Darnold’s completion prop is around 20, which is roughly ten fewer tackle opportunities in the passing game. Which is where Melton gets most of his tackle opps, and only 54% of his tackles have come on WRs, with 45% on RBs/TEs; Seattle is not likely to flood targets to RB/TE though. He will likely be covering JSN (initially) often, who has been a target monster so far, but initial coverage does not guarantee the tackle. Only 37% of tackles on JSN receptions have been by corners; 63% have been safeties, linebackers, or even edges cleaning up because of how much he moves across the field horizontally/vertically. I think it’s fair to expect Melton in for 2–3 tackles on JSN and 1–2 elsewhere, with Budda Baker and Mack Wilson siphoning plenty. I have him around 4.1 tackles and about 60% to stay under 4.5.

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

You’re probably wondering why I’m going back to the backup-RB well after last TNF’s Ray Davis disaster. Fair. The Bills flipped their backup usage after ~19 straight games of being predictable, and I did not see that coming. But these volatile spots have still treated me pretty well overall (Dylan Sampson under 9.5 rush att, Bill Croskey-Merritt under 1.5 rec both cashed). This one feels more like the Bill play: an injury opens the door, the market overreacts to one angle, and there’s another way it can shake out. With James Conner out for the season, Trey Benson should take the Conner role on early downs. Benson had been the 3rd-down / 2-minute back, but that was more about finding him snaps with Conner healthy than his true skill set. I expect Demercado to slide back into the passing-downs role he handled last year, which points to routes and checkdowns rather than carries. Seattle is a tough run matchup anyway: 3rd in run-D DVOA, 2nd-lowest rushing yards over expected per attempt, and tied with Cleveland with only two runs of 10+ yards allowed. The piece I think the market is light on is Zonovan “Bam” Knight. He has been a healthy scratch, but with Conner out I’m expecting him to be active and serve as Benson’s early-down backup, not Demercado. Knight had an incredible preseason, rushing for 138 yards on 12 carries (11.5 Y/A). I think they use him as the backup on early downs here, not Demercado. That sets Emari up for something like 2–3 rush attempts and 1–2 catches. Could he burn this with a 3rd-and-long draw into a soft box? Sure, that is the path. I still have his median closer to 11.5 and about 58% to stay under 14.5. It is a volatile situation, I might look silly if he lands on 20+, but I think his floor is lower than the market realizes if Bam is up and is Benson’s backup on early downs.

T. McBride ⬆️ 6.5 Receptions (+100 @ Fanatics)(ARI) On paper, it might look like a tough ask since McBride has yet to clear this number in 2025, finishing with 6, 6, and 5 catches through three games. But the consistency is exactly what makes this spot appealing—he’s been right there every week, and the volume has been excellent with 24 targets and a massive 27.4% target share. That type of usage is rare for a tight end, and it shows how heavily Kyler Murray leans on him. The matchup here is also a big green light. Seattle’s defense has quietly been one of the softest against tight ends so far, allowing the most receptions (24), second-most targets (33), seventh-most yards (180), and the fifth-highest target share to the position. Scheme-wise, the Seahawks play a ton of zone coverage, primarily Cover 3 and Cover 4, which funnels short and intermediate looks to the middle of the field. McBride excels in this exact setup—he currently ranks fifth among all TEs in receiving grade against zone coverage. History also favors him here: last year, he posted 7 and 12 catches in his two meetings with Seattle. Add in Marvin Harrison Jr.’s early struggles adjusting to the NFL, and it’s clear that McBride is the unquestioned No. 1 option in this passing attack. With elite usage, a scheme-friendly matchup, and past success against this opponent, this feels like a great buy spot on McBride to finally push over the hump. I’ll back over 6.5 receptions at a plus money price.

I think this is a really sneaky spot - Zay Jones is out w/ a concussion so Dortch is WR3 on the depth chart. In three games w/ Jones active, Dortch has 1, 1, 2 REC and he's seen a designed screen in 2/3 games. Dortch should take on Jones' routes, which was roughly 17.3 per game (run friendly script first two games and then concussion in 3rd game). When Dortch runs 15+ routes in a game, he was over this line in 5/6 games in 2024. SEA have been zone-heavier this season - ranking T12 in zone% as well as #5 in 2-High. In Dortch's limited routes, he's AVG a 0.24 TPRR vs. zone coverage and a lot of his routes come close to the LOS/underneath (0.8 ADOT). Majority of Dortch's routes come from the slot (60%) and SEA ranked #9 in slot TRG%. SEA are yet to play a receiver w/ a 60%+ slot route rate but they've played two TE who were around that ~55% number: - Juwan Johnson: 6/8/51 (covered) - Pat Freiermuth: 3/4/31 (covered)

#SodaBet

Not my largest wager ever but these teams are too even even w/ injuries for Arizona to be a home dog here imo

Split between anytime TD +700 and first TD 33-1. Gotta roll with my guy with Jones out.

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Double XP weekend

If it’s over +300, taking it every time.

Mgm

Both secondaries are banged up, and this game is indoors. My model has it at 47.2.