Brandon Anderson

For the entire back half of the season, I've had the Seahawks and Rams far ahead of the rest of the field in my power ratings. I have both teams more than a field goal ahead of any other team on a neutral field, and I like both in their matchups this weekend against outmatched, banged-up defenses. That sets up a Seattle-LA NFC Championship, and if we get that, it guarantees one of those two teams will play in the Super Bowl — as the clear favorite against any AFC opponent. It's never too late to play a futures bet. I bet a Seahawks-Rams ML parlay on Sunday night on the Hot Read, but we can take this a step further. Build a weekend moneyline parlay of Seahawks and Rams, then add "NFC participant to win Super Bowl" for a juicy +220 parlay at Caesars that's badly mispriced in a clearly correlated outcome.

We have to start with the big injury news here — Nico Collins out for Houston and Christian Gonzalez in for New England. That's a pretty big swing off the top, especially since New England ranks dead last against WR1s on the season. The Texans have a bottom 10 set of weapons without Collins (and that's being kind), and Gonzalez is New England's most important defender. Even so, Houston, not New England, has been the significantly better team this season and I start with this game close to a pick'em. Houston's defense is its calling card and is coming off a dominant, masterful Monday night performance against the Steelers. The Texans force opponents into a three-and-out (or better) an outlier 39% of the time, effectively turning every opponent into the Raiders, the league's worst offense. The Texans defense begins with an elite pressure rate up front from Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, but the truth is that this is a relatively vanilla scheme. Unlike aggressive defenses like Seattle or Denver, Houston basically plays one or two personnel groupings and doesn't offer many surprises — they just know their guys are better than yours until you prove otherwise. That works against most teams, but it could offer a few areas for a great offense like New England to attack. Houston has an elite pressure rate, but the Patriots rank third in EPA per play under pressure. Drake Maye can escape with his legs — we'll get back to that — and hit the big pass down the field. New England also plays top-five most 21 personnel, making use of its dynamic duo of TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson, and Houston ranks just 13th in EPA per play against 21 personnel, a relative weakness. The Texans also rank just 14th in explosive plays allowed, and that's a real concern here. New England leads the league in explosive play rate at 14%, about one every seven plays, and that includes top five rushing and No. 1 passing at almost 20%. Aaron Rodgers wasn't able or willing to hold the ball long enough to create big plays against Houston, but Drake Maye was an MVP candidate for a reason and he can hurt these specific Houston weaknesses. New England's defense may also hold its own. The Patriots defense is a totally different animal over the back half of the season than it was early. Over the first nine games, New England ranked top five stopping the run by DVOA but bottom five against the pass. Over the final nine, the Patriots are league-average against the pass with a healthier secondary but tumbled to 30th against the run. That run defense got Milton Williams back last week, though, and Houston is not built to take advantage of a bad run defense, ranking just 30th by EPA on the season. The Texans also play a ton of 11 personnel where New England ranks top seven by EPA, and the Texans have been awful in the red zone this season and may not be able to take advantage of New England's league-worst red zone defense. Add in a real home-field advantage against a Texas team used to playing indoors and there are real reasons for concern on Houston's behalf — but I still lean Houston at the number. In the Divisional Round, it's typically a smart idea to fade the overpriced home team. Home favorites are 49-27 SU over the past couple decades but offer a 20% ROI on the road underdog moneyline, and underdogs are 21-32 SU against opponents this round that won over 75% of their regular season games, a 38% ROI on the moneyline. Books are juicing the numbers for these home favorites with gaudy records, and though New England has some areas to attack, I still feel good about backing the better team, especially in a low-total game that should be close all the way. This is my least confident game of the weekend, but I'll play Houston's moneyline at +150 (bet365). I'm also looking to play a few props. Drake Maye has played four games against a top-eight pass defense this season. He averages 228 yards and 1.3 passing TDs in those games. That's almost exactly what Houston's defense has allowed in six games against a top-10 passing attack: 229 yards and 1.3 TDs. The Texans may be able to keep Maye out of the end zone, but he can hurt them with his legs. Maye ranked 6th in scramble EPA per dropback this season and Houston ranked second to last. The Texans are getting so much pressure that Maye will be forced to move, and their defense is vulnerable to a big scramble with so many pass rushers up field. Maye has run for at least 25 yards in half his games and 40+ yards in a third of them, and he just ran 10 times for 66 yards in the win over the Chargers, both season-high numbers. I'll build a couple Maye SGPs. Start with under 1.5 passing TDs and 25 rushing yards at +118 (FanDuel), then place a second bet on under 1.5 pass TDs and 60+ rushing yards at +569 (FanDuel). New England may also be able to attack Houston with screens. The Patriots rank 6th in EPA per play on screens while the Texans defense also ranks 31st there, another area where those aggressive pass rushers are getting attacked. Rhamondre Stevenson has quietly become a weapon in the passing game for the Patriots, averaging 3.0 catches for 37.7 yards over his last six games. That includes 3+ catches in four of the six games and at least 22 yards in all of them, and Stevenson has racked up 61% of his season-long YAC in this stretch. You'd think TreVeyon Henderson would be the receiving back to target but he's down to just eight receiving snaps per game over his last five outings versus 22 for Stevenson. Bet over 19.5 receiving yards for Rhamondre Stevenson (-110, BetRivers). He's hit that in six straight games and can do it in one play once he gets rolling. We've seen the Texans hurt by explosive pass plays to RBs like Ashton Jenaty this year. Houston has allowed 36+ receiving yards to a RB seven times already, and Stevenson has games with 40, 55, and 75 receiving yards in this recent stretch. Let's take the Rhamondre escalator: 40+ receiving yards at +400, 50+ at +675 (both at bet365), and all the way to 70+ at +1900 (DraftKings) — all numbers he just cashed Sunday night against the Chargers!

We have to start with the big injury news here — Nico Collins out for Houston and Christian Gonzalez in for New England. That's a pretty big swing off the top, especially since New England ranks dead last against WR1s on the season. The Texans have a bottom 10 set of weapons without Collins (and that's being kind), and Gonzalez is New England's most important defender. Even so, Houston, not New England, has been the significantly better team this season and I start with this game close to a pick'em. Houston's defense is its calling card and is coming off a dominant, masterful Monday night performance against the Steelers. The Texans force opponents into a three-and-out (or better) an outlier 39% of the time, effectively turning every opponent into the Raiders, the league's worst offense. The Texans defense begins with an elite pressure rate up front from Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, but the truth is that this is a relatively vanilla scheme. Unlike aggressive defenses like Seattle or Denver, Houston basically plays one or two personnel groupings and doesn't offer many surprises — they just know their guys are better than yours until you prove otherwise. That works against most teams, but it could offer a few areas for a great offense like New England to attack. Houston has an elite pressure rate, but the Patriots rank third in EPA per play under pressure. Drake Maye can escape with his legs — we'll get back to that — and hit the big pass down the field. New England also plays top-five most 21 personnel, making use of its dynamic duo of TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson, and Houston ranks just 13th in EPA per play against 21 personnel, a relative weakness. The Texans also rank just 14th in explosive plays allowed, and that's a real concern here. New England leads the league in explosive play rate at 14%, about one every seven plays, and that includes top five rushing and No. 1 passing at almost 20%. Aaron Rodgers wasn't able or willing to hold the ball long enough to create big plays against Houston, but Drake Maye was an MVP candidate for a reason and he can hurt these specific Houston weaknesses. New England's defense may also hold its own. The Patriots defense is a totally different animal over the back half of the season than it was early. Over the first nine games, New England ranked top five stopping the run by DVOA but bottom five against the pass. Over the final nine, the Patriots are league-average against the pass with a healthier secondary but tumbled to 30th against the run. That run defense got Milton Williams back last week, though, and Houston is not built to take advantage of a bad run defense, ranking just 30th by EPA on the season. The Texans also play a ton of 11 personnel where New England ranks top seven by EPA, and the Texans have been awful in the red zone this season and may not be able to take advantage of New England's league-worst red zone defense. Add in a real home-field advantage against a Texas team used to playing indoors and there are real reasons for concern on Houston's behalf — but I still lean Houston at the number. In the Divisional Round, it's typically a smart idea to fade the overpriced home team. Home favorites are 49-27 SU over the past couple decades but offer a 20% ROI on the road underdog moneyline, and underdogs are 21-32 SU against opponents this round that won over 75% of their regular season games, a 38% ROI on the moneyline. Books are juicing the numbers for these home favorites with gaudy records, and though New England has some areas to attack, I still feel good about backing the better team, especially in a low-total game that should be close all the way. This is my least confident game of the weekend, but I'll play Houston's moneyline at +150 (bet365). I'm also looking to play a few props. Drake Maye has played four games against a top-eight pass defense this season. He averages 228 yards and 1.3 passing TDs in those games. That's almost exactly what Houston's defense has allowed in six games against a top-10 passing attack: 229 yards and 1.3 TDs. The Texans may be able to keep Maye out of the end zone, but he can hurt them with his legs. Maye ranked 6th in scramble EPA per dropback this season and Houston ranked second to last. The Texans are getting so much pressure that Maye will be forced to move, and their defense is vulnerable to a big scramble with so many pass rushers up field. Maye has run for at least 25 yards in half his games and 40+ yards in a third of them, and he just ran 10 times for 66 yards in the win over the Chargers, both season-high numbers. I'll build a couple Maye SGPs. Start with under 1.5 passing TDs and 25 rushing yards at +118 (FanDuel), then place a second bet on under 1.5 pass TDs and 60+ rushing yards at +569 (FanDuel). New England may also be able to attack Houston with screens. The Patriots rank 6th in EPA per play on screens while the Texans defense also ranks 31st there, another area where those aggressive pass rushers are getting attacked. Rhamondre Stevenson has quietly become a weapon in the passing game for the Patriots, averaging 3.0 catches for 37.7 yards over his last six games. That includes 3+ catches in four of the six games and at least 22 yards in all of them, and Stevenson has racked up 61% of his season-long YAC in this stretch. You'd think TreVeyon Henderson would be the receiving back to target but he's down to just eight receiving snaps per game over his last five outings versus 22 for Stevenson. Bet over 19.5 receiving yards for Rhamondre Stevenson (-110, BetRivers). He's hit that in six straight games and can do it in one play once he gets rolling. We've seen the Texans hurt by explosive pass plays to RBs like Ashton Jenaty this year. Houston has allowed 36+ receiving yards to a RB seven times already, and Stevenson has games with 40, 55, and 75 receiving yards in this recent stretch. Let's take the Rhamondre escalator: 40+ receiving yards at +400, 50+ at +675 (both at bet365), and all the way to 70+ at +1900 (DraftKings) — all numbers he just cashed Sunday night against the Chargers!

We have to start with the big injury news here — Nico Collins out for Houston and Christian Gonzalez in for New England. That's a pretty big swing off the top, especially since New England ranks dead last against WR1s on the season. The Texans have a bottom 10 set of weapons without Collins (and that's being kind), and Gonzalez is New England's most important defender. Even so, Houston, not New England, has been the significantly better team this season and I start with this game close to a pick'em. Houston's defense is its calling card and is coming off a dominant, masterful Monday night performance against the Steelers. The Texans force opponents into a three-and-out (or better) an outlier 39% of the time, effectively turning every opponent into the Raiders, the league's worst offense. The Texans defense begins with an elite pressure rate up front from Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, but the truth is that this is a relatively vanilla scheme. Unlike aggressive defenses like Seattle or Denver, Houston basically plays one or two personnel groupings and doesn't offer many surprises — they just know their guys are better than yours until you prove otherwise. That works against most teams, but it could offer a few areas for a great offense like New England to attack. Houston has an elite pressure rate, but the Patriots rank third in EPA per play under pressure. Drake Maye can escape with his legs — we'll get back to that — and hit the big pass down the field. New England also plays top-five most 21 personnel, making use of its dynamic duo of TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson, and Houston ranks just 13th in EPA per play against 21 personnel, a relative weakness. The Texans also rank just 14th in explosive plays allowed, and that's a real concern here. New England leads the league in explosive play rate at 14%, about one every seven plays, and that includes top five rushing and No. 1 passing at almost 20%. Aaron Rodgers wasn't able or willing to hold the ball long enough to create big plays against Houston, but Drake Maye was an MVP candidate for a reason and he can hurt these specific Houston weaknesses. New England's defense may also hold its own. The Patriots defense is a totally different animal over the back half of the season than it was early. Over the first nine games, New England ranked top five stopping the run by DVOA but bottom five against the pass. Over the final nine, the Patriots are league-average against the pass with a healthier secondary but tumbled to 30th against the run. That run defense got Milton Williams back last week, though, and Houston is not built to take advantage of a bad run defense, ranking just 30th by EPA on the season. The Texans also play a ton of 11 personnel where New England ranks top seven by EPA, and the Texans have been awful in the red zone this season and may not be able to take advantage of New England's league-worst red zone defense. Add in a real home-field advantage against a Texas team used to playing indoors and there are real reasons for concern on Houston's behalf — but I still lean Houston at the number. In the Divisional Round, it's typically a smart idea to fade the overpriced home team. Home favorites are 49-27 SU over the past couple decades but offer a 20% ROI on the road underdog moneyline, and underdogs are 21-32 SU against opponents this round that won over 75% of their regular season games, a 38% ROI on the moneyline. Books are juicing the numbers for these home favorites with gaudy records, and though New England has some areas to attack, I still feel good about backing the better team, especially in a low-total game that should be close all the way. This is my least confident game of the weekend, but I'll play Houston's moneyline at +150 (bet365). I'm also looking to play a few props. Drake Maye has played four games against a top-eight pass defense this season. He averages 228 yards and 1.3 passing TDs in those games. That's almost exactly what Houston's defense has allowed in six games against a top-10 passing attack: 229 yards and 1.3 TDs. The Texans may be able to keep Maye out of the end zone, but he can hurt them with his legs. Maye ranked 6th in scramble EPA per dropback this season and Houston ranked second to last. The Texans are getting so much pressure that Maye will be forced to move, and their defense is vulnerable to a big scramble with so many pass rushers up field. Maye has run for at least 25 yards in half his games and 40+ yards in a third of them, and he just ran 10 times for 66 yards in the win over the Chargers, both season-high numbers. I'll build a couple Maye SGPs. Start with under 1.5 passing TDs and 25 rushing yards at +118 (FanDuel), then place a second bet on under 1.5 pass TDs and 60+ rushing yards at +569 (FanDuel). New England may also be able to attack Houston with screens. The Patriots rank 6th in EPA per play on screens while the Texans defense also ranks 31st there, another area where those aggressive pass rushers are getting attacked. Rhamondre Stevenson has quietly become a weapon in the passing game for the Patriots, averaging 3.0 catches for 37.7 yards over his last six games. That includes 3+ catches in four of the six games and at least 22 yards in all of them, and Stevenson has racked up 61% of his season-long YAC in this stretch. You'd think TreVeyon Henderson would be the receiving back to target but he's down to just eight receiving snaps per game over his last five outings versus 22 for Stevenson. Bet over 19.5 receiving yards for Rhamondre Stevenson (-110, BetRivers). He's hit that in six straight games and can do it in one play once he gets rolling. We've seen the Texans hurt by explosive pass plays to RBs like Ashton Jenaty this year. Houston has allowed 36+ receiving yards to a RB seven times already, and Stevenson has games with 40, 55, and 75 receiving yards in this recent stretch. Let's take the Rhamondre escalator: 40+ receiving yards at +400, 50+ at +675 (both at bet365), and all the way to 70+ at +1900 (DraftKings) — all numbers he just cashed Sunday night against the Chargers!

We have to start with the big injury news here — Nico Collins out for Houston and Christian Gonzalez in for New England. That's a pretty big swing off the top, especially since New England ranks dead last against WR1s on the season. The Texans have a bottom 10 set of weapons without Collins (and that's being kind), and Gonzalez is New England's most important defender. Even so, Houston, not New England, has been the significantly better team this season and I start with this game close to a pick'em. Houston's defense is its calling card and is coming off a dominant, masterful Monday night performance against the Steelers. The Texans force opponents into a three-and-out (or better) an outlier 39% of the time, effectively turning every opponent into the Raiders, the league's worst offense. The Texans defense begins with an elite pressure rate up front from Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, but the truth is that this is a relatively vanilla scheme. Unlike aggressive defenses like Seattle or Denver, Houston basically plays one or two personnel groupings and doesn't offer many surprises — they just know their guys are better than yours until you prove otherwise. That works against most teams, but it could offer a few areas for a great offense like New England to attack. Houston has an elite pressure rate, but the Patriots rank third in EPA per play under pressure. Drake Maye can escape with his legs — we'll get back to that — and hit the big pass down the field. New England also plays top-five most 21 personnel, making use of its dynamic duo of TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson, and Houston ranks just 13th in EPA per play against 21 personnel, a relative weakness. The Texans also rank just 14th in explosive plays allowed, and that's a real concern here. New England leads the league in explosive play rate at 14%, about one every seven plays, and that includes top five rushing and No. 1 passing at almost 20%. Aaron Rodgers wasn't able or willing to hold the ball long enough to create big plays against Houston, but Drake Maye was an MVP candidate for a reason and he can hurt these specific Houston weaknesses. New England's defense may also hold its own. The Patriots defense is a totally different animal over the back half of the season than it was early. Over the first nine games, New England ranked top five stopping the run by DVOA but bottom five against the pass. Over the final nine, the Patriots are league-average against the pass with a healthier secondary but tumbled to 30th against the run. That run defense got Milton Williams back last week, though, and Houston is not built to take advantage of a bad run defense, ranking just 30th by EPA on the season. The Texans also play a ton of 11 personnel where New England ranks top seven by EPA, and the Texans have been awful in the red zone this season and may not be able to take advantage of New England's league-worst red zone defense. Add in a real home-field advantage against a Texas team used to playing indoors and there are real reasons for concern on Houston's behalf — but I still lean Houston at the number. In the Divisional Round, it's typically a smart idea to fade the overpriced home team. Home favorites are 49-27 SU over the past couple decades but offer a 20% ROI on the road underdog moneyline, and underdogs are 21-32 SU against opponents this round that won over 75% of their regular season games, a 38% ROI on the moneyline. Books are juicing the numbers for these home favorites with gaudy records, and though New England has some areas to attack, I still feel good about backing the better team, especially in a low-total game that should be close all the way. This is my least confident game of the weekend, but I'll play Houston's moneyline at +150 (bet365). I'm also looking to play a few props. Drake Maye has played four games against a top-eight pass defense this season. He averages 228 yards and 1.3 passing TDs in those games. That's almost exactly what Houston's defense has allowed in six games against a top-10 passing attack: 229 yards and 1.3 TDs. The Texans may be able to keep Maye out of the end zone, but he can hurt them with his legs. Maye ranked 6th in scramble EPA per dropback this season and Houston ranked second to last. The Texans are getting so much pressure that Maye will be forced to move, and their defense is vulnerable to a big scramble with so many pass rushers up field. Maye has run for at least 25 yards in half his games and 40+ yards in a third of them, and he just ran 10 times for 66 yards in the win over the Chargers, both season-high numbers. I'll build a couple Maye SGPs. Start with under 1.5 passing TDs and 25 rushing yards at +118 (FanDuel), then place a second bet on under 1.5 pass TDs and 60+ rushing yards at +569 (FanDuel). New England may also be able to attack Houston with screens. The Patriots rank 6th in EPA per play on screens while the Texans defense also ranks 31st there, another area where those aggressive pass rushers are getting attacked. Rhamondre Stevenson has quietly become a weapon in the passing game for the Patriots, averaging 3.0 catches for 37.7 yards over his last six games. That includes 3+ catches in four of the six games and at least 22 yards in all of them, and Stevenson has racked up 61% of his season-long YAC in this stretch. You'd think TreVeyon Henderson would be the receiving back to target but he's down to just eight receiving snaps per game over his last five outings versus 22 for Stevenson. Bet over 19.5 receiving yards for Rhamondre Stevenson (-110, BetRivers). He's hit that in six straight games and can do it in one play once he gets rolling. We've seen the Texans hurt by explosive pass plays to RBs like Ashton Jenaty this year. Houston has allowed 36+ receiving yards to a RB seven times already, and Stevenson has games with 40, 55, and 75 receiving yards in this recent stretch. Let's take the Rhamondre escalator: 40+ receiving yards at +400, 50+ at +675 (both at bet365), and all the way to 70+ at +1900 (DraftKings) — all numbers he just cashed Sunday night against the Chargers!

We have to start with the big injury news here — Nico Collins out for Houston and Christian Gonzalez in for New England. That's a pretty big swing off the top, especially since New England ranks dead last against WR1s on the season. The Texans have a bottom 10 set of weapons without Collins (and that's being kind), and Gonzalez is New England's most important defender. Even so, Houston, not New England, has been the significantly better team this season and I start with this game close to a pick'em. Houston's defense is its calling card and is coming off a dominant, masterful Monday night performance against the Steelers. The Texans force opponents into a three-and-out (or better) an outlier 39% of the time, effectively turning every opponent into the Raiders, the league's worst offense. The Texans defense begins with an elite pressure rate up front from Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, but the truth is that this is a relatively vanilla scheme. Unlike aggressive defenses like Seattle or Denver, Houston basically plays one or two personnel groupings and doesn't offer many surprises — they just know their guys are better than yours until you prove otherwise. That works against most teams, but it could offer a few areas for a great offense like New England to attack. Houston has an elite pressure rate, but the Patriots rank third in EPA per play under pressure. Drake Maye can escape with his legs — we'll get back to that — and hit the big pass down the field. New England also plays top-five most 21 personnel, making use of its dynamic duo of TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson, and Houston ranks just 13th in EPA per play against 21 personnel, a relative weakness. The Texans also rank just 14th in explosive plays allowed, and that's a real concern here. New England leads the league in explosive play rate at 14%, about one every seven plays, and that includes top five rushing and No. 1 passing at almost 20%. Aaron Rodgers wasn't able or willing to hold the ball long enough to create big plays against Houston, but Drake Maye was an MVP candidate for a reason and he can hurt these specific Houston weaknesses. New England's defense may also hold its own. The Patriots defense is a totally different animal over the back half of the season than it was early. Over the first nine games, New England ranked top five stopping the run by DVOA but bottom five against the pass. Over the final nine, the Patriots are league-average against the pass with a healthier secondary but tumbled to 30th against the run. That run defense got Milton Williams back last week, though, and Houston is not built to take advantage of a bad run defense, ranking just 30th by EPA on the season. The Texans also play a ton of 11 personnel where New England ranks top seven by EPA, and the Texans have been awful in the red zone this season and may not be able to take advantage of New England's league-worst red zone defense. Add in a real home-field advantage against a Texas team used to playing indoors and there are real reasons for concern on Houston's behalf — but I still lean Houston at the number. In the Divisional Round, it's typically a smart idea to fade the overpriced home team. Home favorites are 49-27 SU over the past couple decades but offer a 20% ROI on the road underdog moneyline, and underdogs are 21-32 SU against opponents this round that won over 75% of their regular season games, a 38% ROI on the moneyline. Books are juicing the numbers for these home favorites with gaudy records, and though New England has some areas to attack, I still feel good about backing the better team, especially in a low-total game that should be close all the way. This is my least confident game of the weekend, but I'll play Houston's moneyline at +150 (bet365). I'm also looking to play a few props. Drake Maye has played four games against a top-eight pass defense this season. He averages 228 yards and 1.3 passing TDs in those games. That's almost exactly what Houston's defense has allowed in six games against a top-10 passing attack: 229 yards and 1.3 TDs. The Texans may be able to keep Maye out of the end zone, but he can hurt them with his legs. Maye ranked 6th in scramble EPA per dropback this season and Houston ranked second to last. The Texans are getting so much pressure that Maye will be forced to move, and their defense is vulnerable to a big scramble with so many pass rushers up field. Maye has run for at least 25 yards in half his games and 40+ yards in a third of them, and he just ran 10 times for 66 yards in the win over the Chargers, both season-high numbers. I'll build a couple Maye SGPs. Start with under 1.5 passing TDs and 25 rushing yards at +118 (FanDuel), then place a second bet on under 1.5 pass TDs and 60+ rushing yards at +569 (FanDuel). New England may also be able to attack Houston with screens. The Patriots rank 6th in EPA per play on screens while the Texans defense also ranks 31st there, another area where those aggressive pass rushers are getting attacked. Rhamondre Stevenson has quietly become a weapon in the passing game for the Patriots, averaging 3.0 catches for 37.7 yards over his last six games. That includes 3+ catches in four of the six games and at least 22 yards in all of them, and Stevenson has racked up 61% of his season-long YAC in this stretch. You'd think TreVeyon Henderson would be the receiving back to target but he's down to just eight receiving snaps per game over his last five outings versus 22 for Stevenson. Bet over 19.5 receiving yards for Rhamondre Stevenson (-110, BetRivers). He's hit that in six straight games and can do it in one play once he gets rolling. We've seen the Texans hurt by explosive pass plays to RBs like Ashton Jenaty this year. Houston has allowed 36+ receiving yards to a RB seven times already, and Stevenson has games with 40, 55, and 75 receiving yards in this recent stretch. Let's take the Rhamondre escalator: 40+ receiving yards at +400, 50+ at +675 (both at bet365), and all the way to 70+ at +1900 (DraftKings) — all numbers he just cashed Sunday night against the Chargers!

Chicago is still buzzing after that incredible Bears comeback against the Packers, but I've seen this movie before. The NFL postseason graveyard is littered with teams that had exhilarating comebacks before collapsing the next game. It's really hard to come off that adrenaline letdown after a "Super Bowl" type win, and it matters that the Bears offense did virtually nothing for a second straight game against the lowly Packers defense for the first three quarters. It also matters that Chicago lost its starting left tackle in that one, who helped transformed this line into one of the league's best, a line that now faces a ferocious defensive front. The Bears also lost their only good linebacker, yet another loss for a flailing defense already short on bodies. Meanwhile the Rams are getting healthy and should return G Kevin Dotson to bolster an already terrific offensive line. The return of Dotson and absence of T.J. Edwards only further bolster what was already a monster mismatch: Rams offense versus Bears defense. Chicago's defense is by far the weakest link in this game, and the Rams offense should get anything it wants. The number for Chicago are ghastly. The Rams offense has an edge in Success Rate, ranking 1st versus 25th for Chicago's defense. The Rams also have an edge in explosives, 3rd versus 22nd, along with rushing EPA at 4th versus 26th. That last stat is especially important in a freezing Chicago game where the run game will be important — and where the Rams should run just fine, especially with Dotson back. Chicago ranks bottom 10 against playaction. The Rams use more playaction than any offense. Chicago allows the third most middle of the field attacks in the league. The Rams exploded attacking their over the back half of the season. The Bears allow the second-highest outside run rate and rank just 27th in EPA per play defending it. The Rams rank first, and Blake Corum has been especially explosive. On top of all that, the Bears allow myriad explosive plays in the secondary, ranking 7th in most deep passes allowed and 27th in EPA per play. The Rams attack deep early and often, most in the league, and rank top five by EPA. Sean McVay knows Dennis Allen defenses. He's 6-2 lifetime against an Allen defense, averaging 29 PPG in those games, and that includes a memorable NFC Championship Game win. The Rams are going to score. The other side of the ball is more complicated. LA's defense has faded hard, allowing 29 PPG in Week 13 through 17 before giving up 31 in that near-loss to Carolina last week. The Rams passing defense has fallen apart, leaping from 19% in explosive passing plays allowed through 12 games to an awful 41% since, second worst in the league. Chris Shula's defense missed Quentin Lake for much of that stretch and has him back now, but this defense is pretty predictable, ranking top three in most zone and light box defense and bottom three in blitz rate. That makes LA ripe for the attacking for an offensive mind like Ben Johnson. Chicago leads the league in EPA against light boxes, and the Bears use playaction second most, another area the Rams are vulnerable. Ben Johnson's offense has been especially good in the second half, so that could set up another comeback script for Chicago — or at least leave the backdoor open. A lot will be on Caleb Williams. He clearly has the talent, but he's been far better against man defense and should see a ton of zone in this one, so that could make Chicago's offense volatile and unpredictable. There are a couple other key areas of uncertainty. It looks very cold and wintry in Chicago, with temperatures in the teens and wind chills that could be below zero. You'll find all sorts of worrying stats for Sean McVay in Chicago, Matthew Stafford in the rain or snow, and so on, but the weather should impact both teams, and if it forces the run, there's reason to believe the Rams should run even better than the Bears. Stafford's finger injury is also a concern. It's not his guiding finger and shouldn't be a problem, but it sure didn't look good throwing outside the numbers in Carolina, and the cold won't help there either. If you're worried about the finger injury and the cold, you may just want to stay away. I'm still investing in the Rams in what's a lopsided matchup on paper, though I'll play slightly less aggressively with the unknowns. Start with Rams -3.5. Los Angeles covered that line in every win but one this season until last week. But because Chicago has proven itself a backdoor threat, I mostly prefer to play Rams team totals. Rams over 26.5 (-115, DraftKings) looks like a nice proxy for an LA moneyline. The Rams are 10-2 this season when they score 27 points and just 3-3 when they don't, and Chicago has allowed 27 points eight times, including all but one of its losses. The Rams have at least 26 points in 13 of their 18 games, so over 26.5 looks good. They've scored 33+ points 10 times already, including nine of their 13 wins (69%). Let's play a Rams team total escalator, starting with over 33.5 points at +330 (bet365). LA has 41+ points three times this season while the Bears have allowed that three times as well, so let's play 40+ Rams points at +625 in case this offense detonates (bet365).

Chicago is still buzzing after that incredible Bears comeback against the Packers, but I've seen this movie before. The NFL postseason graveyard is littered with teams that had exhilarating comebacks before collapsing the next game. It's really hard to come off that adrenaline letdown after a "Super Bowl" type win, and it matters that the Bears offense did virtually nothing for a second straight game against the lowly Packers defense for the first three quarters. It also matters that Chicago lost its starting left tackle in that one, who helped transformed this line into one of the league's best, a line that now faces a ferocious defensive front. The Bears also lost their only good linebacker, yet another loss for a flailing defense already short on bodies. Meanwhile the Rams are getting healthy and should return G Kevin Dotson to bolster an already terrific offensive line. The return of Dotson and absence of T.J. Edwards only further bolster what was already a monster mismatch: Rams offense versus Bears defense. Chicago's defense is by far the weakest link in this game, and the Rams offense should get anything it wants. The number for Chicago are ghastly. The Rams offense has an edge in Success Rate, ranking 1st versus 25th for Chicago's defense. The Rams also have an edge in explosives, 3rd versus 22nd, along with rushing EPA at 4th versus 26th. That last stat is especially important in a freezing Chicago game where the run game will be important — and where the Rams should run just fine, especially with Dotson back. Chicago ranks bottom 10 against playaction. The Rams use more playaction than any offense. Chicago allows the third most middle of the field attacks in the league. The Rams exploded attacking their over the back half of the season. The Bears allow the second-highest outside run rate and rank just 27th in EPA per play defending it. The Rams rank first, and Blake Corum has been especially explosive. On top of all that, the Bears allow myriad explosive plays in the secondary, ranking 7th in most deep passes allowed and 27th in EPA per play. The Rams attack deep early and often, most in the league, and rank top five by EPA. Sean McVay knows Dennis Allen defenses. He's 6-2 lifetime against an Allen defense, averaging 29 PPG in those games, and that includes a memorable NFC Championship Game win. The Rams are going to score. The other side of the ball is more complicated. LA's defense has faded hard, allowing 29 PPG in Week 13 through 17 before giving up 31 in that near-loss to Carolina last week. The Rams passing defense has fallen apart, leaping from 19% in explosive passing plays allowed through 12 games to an awful 41% since, second worst in the league. Chris Shula's defense missed Quentin Lake for much of that stretch and has him back now, but this defense is pretty predictable, ranking top three in most zone and light box defense and bottom three in blitz rate. That makes LA ripe for the attacking for an offensive mind like Ben Johnson. Chicago leads the league in EPA against light boxes, and the Bears use playaction second most, another area the Rams are vulnerable. Ben Johnson's offense has been especially good in the second half, so that could set up another comeback script for Chicago — or at least leave the backdoor open. A lot will be on Caleb Williams. He clearly has the talent, but he's been far better against man defense and should see a ton of zone in this one, so that could make Chicago's offense volatile and unpredictable. There are a couple other key areas of uncertainty. It looks very cold and wintry in Chicago, with temperatures in the teens and wind chills that could be below zero. You'll find all sorts of worrying stats for Sean McVay in Chicago, Matthew Stafford in the rain or snow, and so on, but the weather should impact both teams, and if it forces the run, there's reason to believe the Rams should run even better than the Bears. Stafford's finger injury is also a concern. It's not his guiding finger and shouldn't be a problem, but it sure didn't look good throwing outside the numbers in Carolina, and the cold won't help there either. If you're worried about the finger injury and the cold, you may just want to stay away. I'm still investing in the Rams in what's a lopsided matchup on paper, though I'll play slightly less aggressively with the unknowns. Start with Rams -3.5. Los Angeles covered that line in every win but one this season until last week. But because Chicago has proven itself a backdoor threat, I mostly prefer to play Rams team totals. Rams over 26.5 (-115, DraftKings) looks like a nice proxy for an LA moneyline. The Rams are 10-2 this season when they score 27 points and just 3-3 when they don't, and Chicago has allowed 27 points eight times, including all but one of its losses. The Rams have at least 26 points in 13 of their 18 games, so over 26.5 looks good. They've scored 33+ points 10 times already, including nine of their 13 wins (69%). Let's play a Rams team total escalator, starting with over 33.5 points at +330 (bet365). LA has 41+ points three times this season while the Bears have allowed that three times as well, so let's play 40+ Rams points at +625 in case this offense detonates (bet365).

Chicago is still buzzing after that incredible Bears comeback against the Packers, but I've seen this movie before. The NFL postseason graveyard is littered with teams that had exhilarating comebacks before collapsing the next game. It's really hard to come off that adrenaline letdown after a "Super Bowl" type win, and it matters that the Bears offense did virtually nothing for a second straight game against the lowly Packers defense for the first three quarters. It also matters that Chicago lost its starting left tackle in that one, who helped transformed this line into one of the league's best, a line that now faces a ferocious defensive front. The Bears also lost their only good linebacker, yet another loss for a flailing defense already short on bodies. Meanwhile the Rams are getting healthy and should return G Kevin Dotson to bolster an already terrific offensive line. The return of Dotson and absence of T.J. Edwards only further bolster what was already a monster mismatch: Rams offense versus Bears defense. Chicago's defense is by far the weakest link in this game, and the Rams offense should get anything it wants. The number for Chicago are ghastly. The Rams offense has an edge in Success Rate, ranking 1st versus 25th for Chicago's defense. The Rams also have an edge in explosives, 3rd versus 22nd, along with rushing EPA at 4th versus 26th. That last stat is especially important in a freezing Chicago game where the run game will be important — and where the Rams should run just fine, especially with Dotson back. Chicago ranks bottom 10 against playaction. The Rams use more playaction than any offense. Chicago allows the third most middle of the field attacks in the league. The Rams exploded attacking their over the back half of the season. The Bears allow the second-highest outside run rate and rank just 27th in EPA per play defending it. The Rams rank first, and Blake Corum has been especially explosive. On top of all that, the Bears allow myriad explosive plays in the secondary, ranking 7th in most deep passes allowed and 27th in EPA per play. The Rams attack deep early and often, most in the league, and rank top five by EPA. Sean McVay knows Dennis Allen defenses. He's 6-2 lifetime against an Allen defense, averaging 29 PPG in those games, and that includes a memorable NFC Championship Game win. The Rams are going to score. The other side of the ball is more complicated. LA's defense has faded hard, allowing 29 PPG in Week 13 through 17 before giving up 31 in that near-loss to Carolina last week. The Rams passing defense has fallen apart, leaping from 19% in explosive passing plays allowed through 12 games to an awful 41% since, second worst in the league. Chris Shula's defense missed Quentin Lake for much of that stretch and has him back now, but this defense is pretty predictable, ranking top three in most zone and light box defense and bottom three in blitz rate. That makes LA ripe for the attacking for an offensive mind like Ben Johnson. Chicago leads the league in EPA against light boxes, and the Bears use playaction second most, another area the Rams are vulnerable. Ben Johnson's offense has been especially good in the second half, so that could set up another comeback script for Chicago — or at least leave the backdoor open. A lot will be on Caleb Williams. He clearly has the talent, but he's been far better against man defense and should see a ton of zone in this one, so that could make Chicago's offense volatile and unpredictable. There are a couple other key areas of uncertainty. It looks very cold and wintry in Chicago, with temperatures in the teens and wind chills that could be below zero. You'll find all sorts of worrying stats for Sean McVay in Chicago, Matthew Stafford in the rain or snow, and so on, but the weather should impact both teams, and if it forces the run, there's reason to believe the Rams should run even better than the Bears. Stafford's finger injury is also a concern. It's not his guiding finger and shouldn't be a problem, but it sure didn't look good throwing outside the numbers in Carolina, and the cold won't help there either. If you're worried about the finger injury and the cold, you may just want to stay away. I'm still investing in the Rams in what's a lopsided matchup on paper, though I'll play slightly less aggressively with the unknowns. Start with Rams -3.5. Los Angeles covered that line in every win but one this season until last week. But because Chicago has proven itself a backdoor threat, I mostly prefer to play Rams team totals. Rams over 26.5 (-115, DraftKings) looks like a nice proxy for an LA moneyline. The Rams are 10-2 this season when they score 27 points and just 3-3 when they don't, and Chicago has allowed 27 points eight times, including all but one of its losses. The Rams have at least 26 points in 13 of their 18 games, so over 26.5 looks good. They've scored 33+ points 10 times already, including nine of their 13 wins (69%). Let's play a Rams team total escalator, starting with over 33.5 points at +330 (bet365). LA has 41+ points three times this season while the Bears have allowed that three times as well, so let's play 40+ Rams points at +625 in case this offense detonates (bet365).

Chicago is still buzzing after that incredible Bears comeback against the Packers, but I've seen this movie before. The NFL postseason graveyard is littered with teams that had exhilarating comebacks before collapsing the next game. It's really hard to come off that adrenaline letdown after a "Super Bowl" type win, and it matters that the Bears offense did virtually nothing for a second straight game against the lowly Packers defense for the first three quarters. It also matters that Chicago lost its starting left tackle in that one, who helped transformed this line into one of the league's best, a line that now faces a ferocious defensive front. The Bears also lost their only good linebacker, yet another loss for a flailing defense already short on bodies. Meanwhile the Rams are getting healthy and should return G Kevin Dotson to bolster an already terrific offensive line. The return of Dotson and absence of T.J. Edwards only further bolster what was already a monster mismatch: Rams offense versus Bears defense. Chicago's defense is by far the weakest link in this game, and the Rams offense should get anything it wants. The number for Chicago are ghastly. The Rams offense has an edge in Success Rate, ranking 1st versus 25th for Chicago's defense. The Rams also have an edge in explosives, 3rd versus 22nd, along with rushing EPA at 4th versus 26th. That last stat is especially important in a freezing Chicago game where the run game will be important — and where the Rams should run just fine, especially with Dotson back. Chicago ranks bottom 10 against playaction. The Rams use more playaction than any offense. Chicago allows the third most middle of the field attacks in the league. The Rams exploded attacking their over the back half of the season. The Bears allow the second-highest outside run rate and rank just 27th in EPA per play defending it. The Rams rank first, and Blake Corum has been especially explosive. On top of all that, the Bears allow myriad explosive plays in the secondary, ranking 7th in most deep passes allowed and 27th in EPA per play. The Rams attack deep early and often, most in the league, and rank top five by EPA. Sean McVay knows Dennis Allen defenses. He's 6-2 lifetime against an Allen defense, averaging 29 PPG in those games, and that includes a memorable NFC Championship Game win. The Rams are going to score. The other side of the ball is more complicated. LA's defense has faded hard, allowing 29 PPG in Week 13 through 17 before giving up 31 in that near-loss to Carolina last week. The Rams passing defense has fallen apart, leaping from 19% in explosive passing plays allowed through 12 games to an awful 41% since, second worst in the league. Chris Shula's defense missed Quentin Lake for much of that stretch and has him back now, but this defense is pretty predictable, ranking top three in most zone and light box defense and bottom three in blitz rate. That makes LA ripe for the attacking for an offensive mind like Ben Johnson. Chicago leads the league in EPA against light boxes, and the Bears use playaction second most, another area the Rams are vulnerable. Ben Johnson's offense has been especially good in the second half, so that could set up another comeback script for Chicago — or at least leave the backdoor open. A lot will be on Caleb Williams. He clearly has the talent, but he's been far better against man defense and should see a ton of zone in this one, so that could make Chicago's offense volatile and unpredictable. There are a couple other key areas of uncertainty. It looks very cold and wintry in Chicago, with temperatures in the teens and wind chills that could be below zero. You'll find all sorts of worrying stats for Sean McVay in Chicago, Matthew Stafford in the rain or snow, and so on, but the weather should impact both teams, and if it forces the run, there's reason to believe the Rams should run even better than the Bears. Stafford's finger injury is also a concern. It's not his guiding finger and shouldn't be a problem, but it sure didn't look good throwing outside the numbers in Carolina, and the cold won't help there either. If you're worried about the finger injury and the cold, you may just want to stay away. I'm still investing in the Rams in what's a lopsided matchup on paper, though I'll play slightly less aggressively with the unknowns. Start with Rams -3.5. Los Angeles covered that line in every win but one this season until last week. But because Chicago has proven itself a backdoor threat, I mostly prefer to play Rams team totals. Rams over 26.5 (-115, DraftKings) looks like a nice proxy for an LA moneyline. The Rams are 10-2 this season when they score 27 points and just 3-3 when they don't, and Chicago has allowed 27 points eight times, including all but one of its losses. The Rams have at least 26 points in 13 of their 18 games, so over 26.5 looks good. They've scored 33+ points 10 times already, including nine of their 13 wins (69%). Let's play a Rams team total escalator, starting with over 33.5 points at +330 (bet365). LA has 41+ points three times this season while the Bears have allowed that three times as well, so let's play 40+ Rams points at +625 in case this offense detonates (bet365).

We bet Broncos -2.5 on last week's Lookahead and it already hit the key number by Sunday night after Denver beat Green Bay convincingly. It hasn't gone far, though, because the Jaguars had a blowout win themselves last week and are one of the hottest teams in the league, top three by DVOA over the last six weeks. Liam Coen's once-rejuvenated rushing attack has totally disappeared, but Jacksonville ranks top five in passing attack and in both rushing and passing defense during that stretch by DVOA. This is where context matters, though. During that stretch, the Jags demolished the terrible Titans and Jets, and they eked by the struggling Cardinals in overtime. The big wins raising all the metrics were comfortable wins against the Chargers and Colts, but both those teams have been besieged by injuries and Jacksonville caught them at just the right time, getting "credit" for wins probably not as good as they look. Then again, it's not like Denver has pulled away from the crowd. Denver has 12 wins, but 11 of them have come from behind. The Broncos are 6-8 ATS in the first half but 9-5 ATS after the break, doing their best work late. The team has been especially lackluster in the first quarter, where the defense ranks below average by DVOA before being elite the rest of the game, and the offense ranks bottom five while it leaps to top 10 after that. Just look at the scores of the last six first quarters in Denver games (with their score first): 0-3, 7-7, 3-0, 6-3, 0-7, and 0-3. That's a meager 2.7 PPG, and the Broncos led only twice, both times by a field goal. By contrast, Jacksonville has played its best ball early in games. Liam Coen's scripted plays are working and Trevor Lawrence is playing great ball early. The Jags are 9-5 ATS in the first half, and they rank top five in Offensive DVOA in the first quarter. I still like Denver in the game, but I like Jacksonville early. I'll play the Jaguars first quarter moneyline at +125 (bet365). I far prefer that to Jags +0.5 at -130, no need to pay 55 cents to win a tie instead of pushing it. That also sets up a familiar script for the Broncos, so bet Denver at +170 to win from behind (DraftKings), which has cashed in all but one Broncos victory. You can also parlay Jaguars 1Q ML with a Broncos win and get a negative correlation boost at +365 (DraftKings).

I love to invest in long-shot name props, and Rasheen Ali is my guy on Sunday night. Derrick Henry might finally be cooked. He's played only 82 snaps in the last three games, just 45%. Ravens fans want more Keaton Mitchell but he's playing only 8-to-12 snaps a game, and Justice Hill was getting 15-to-20 but he's on IR. Enter Marshall sophomore Rasheen Ali, who has the best PFF grade for any RB on this team and has become the third down back for John Harbaugh. Ali has played 29, 27, and 11 snaps the last three games — just five per game less than Henry, and he actually led the team in RB snaps in one of those! His low snap count came in last week's shutout win, so if the Patriots put the Ravens in passing situations, that should be even better for Ali. New England allows the second-fewest fantasy points to RBs so far this season but the third-most receptions to them, driven by game script. New England has allowed 6+ RB receptions in over half its games (8 of 14), including games with eight, nine, nine, and 11 RB catches. Because Ali is mostly unknown, we're getting some juicy numbers, and I'm taking the full Rasheen Ali escalator. Start with 2+ catches at +155 (bet365), a number Ali already hit each of the last two weeks, and then play 3+ receptions at +475 along with 4+ at +1200. Ali also had a 30-yard catch last week, so let's play 30+ yards at +1000 and touch 40+ at +1650 too (all at bet365). If New England gets its early lead, we could see a surprising amount of Rasheen Ali, and it wouldn't be shocking to see him catch four or five passes and make a real difference.

I don't trust either of these teams much. The Bucs have won one of their last seven, and Carolina's -67 point differential would be the worst ever by a playoff team. I'm not playing a side here, but I'd lean Bucs if forced to play. Even playing hurt, I still trust Baker Mayfield more than Bryce Young, and I'll bet on Tampa's veteran postseason experience. Still, I'm not interested at Bucs -3 at the key number. But what if the Bucs win? Tampa Bay would still need a Saints win in Atlanta on Sunday to clinch the division and make the postseason, but the Saints have been the best team in the division for half a season already, so the Bucs should like their chances. At that point the Bucs get a home playoff game against, most likely, the Seahawks or Rams. And that's where I'm ready to pounce. Seattle and LA are my top two power-rated teams in the league by a wide margin, and whoever makes the playoffs from the NFC South will be my worst playoff team. I already bet Seattle -6.5 in Tampa Bay on the contingent Lookahead line at FanDuel. I'd make both the Seahawks and Rams more than a touchdown favorite in Tampa. If the Bucs do win this weekend and get help from the Saints, I think they get blown out in the playoffs anyway. I'm betting the Bucs' "stage of elimination" to lose in the Wild Card Round at +500 (DraftKings). That's priced at 17% and I make it around 22%, simply parlaying three teams I like better in their matchup. If Tampa Bay does survive the weekend, this is suddenly a +500 moneyline ticket on Tampa's opponent next week — juicy!

One of these teams will win the division and host a playoff game next week, whether we like it or not. That will likely come against the Texans, who clinch at least the 5-seed with a win Sunday, and that shapes up as a very low-scoring game, probably one with a total well below 40 and a game that comes down to a couple plays or a final kick. Houston is better than both Baltimore and Pittsburgh, but those are tough road environments and games that would be priced around a coin flip, and a lot of trends will push to back the home underdog in the Wild Card Round in what would look like a pretty coin-flippy game. One of these teams has to make the playoffs, and whoever does will be live to beat the Texans. If they do, they'll likely hit the road to play in Jacksonville or New England the following week — and that's a totally different task, playing on the road with run-heavy attacks against great run defenses. I'm playing two futures angles together to the same end, listed under "stage of elimination" at many books: Baltimore to lose in the Divisional Round at +460 and Pittsburgh to lose in the Divisional Round at +750, both at FanDuel. One of those bets dies Sunday night. The other team needs to win next week, but if they do, that's suddenly a +460 or +750 moneyline on the Patriots or Jaguars as big home favorites! We're going to want that ticket.

One of these teams will win the division and host a playoff game next week, whether we like it or not. That will likely come against the Texans, who clinch at least the 5-seed with a win Sunday, and that shapes up as a very low-scoring game, probably one with a total well below 40 and a game that comes down to a couple plays or a final kick. Houston is better than both Baltimore and Pittsburgh, but those are tough road environments and games that would be priced around a coin flip, and a lot of trends will push to back the home underdog in the Wild Card Round in what would look like a pretty coin-flippy game. One of these teams has to make the playoffs, and whoever does will be live to beat the Texans. If they do, they'll likely hit the road to play in Jacksonville or New England the following week — and that's a totally different task, playing on the road with run-heavy attacks against great run defenses. I'm playing two futures angles together to the same end, listed under "stage of elimination" at many books: Baltimore to lose in the Divisional Round at +460 and Pittsburgh to lose in the Divisional Round at +750, both at FanDuel. One of those bets dies Sunday night. The other team needs to win next week, but if they do, that's suddenly a +460 or +750 moneyline on the Patriots or Jaguars as big home favorites! We're going to want that ticket.

The line on this game makes zero sense. The Packers are road favorites?! Green Bay's market rating hasn't caught up to how poorly the Packers have played down the stretch, losing four straight as they enter the playoffs. The Packers ranked 9th in DVOA defensively over the first half of the season, but they're down to 24th over the last six weeks and fading hard, first against the pass and now against the run too. The rushing offense has also fallen off hard with the line struggling. The Bears aren't a good defense, but they're closer to league average over the back stretch of the season after returning a number of healthy bodies, and that makes this unit much better than Green Bay's. Chicago is the better defense and offense right now, and the Packers were just 2-4 against playoff teams this season. Green Bay has also been far worse on the road defensively, bottom 10 on the season. Chicago has too, for that matter, ranked 30th on the road versus top half of the league at home, but this game is in Chicago — yet another advantage for the Bears. I make the Bears better than a field goal favorite at home, and that led me to grab Bears -104 on the moneyline on Sunday night. But the line has held tight and may even be creeping the other direction. And after digging more into the matchup all week, I'm starting to see why. The Packers rank top five in explosive plays on both offense and defense; the Bears rank bottom 10 defensively there, meaning Chicago's defense could hold up play after play all game, falter two or three times, and blow it anyway. Green Bay ranks top three in EPA on playaction passes; the Bears defense is bottom 10. The Packers are top five attacking the middle of the field; Bears bottom 10 again. Ditto defending 11 personnel, where Green Bay ranks No. 1. The Packers are built specifically to attack Chicago's biggest weaknesses, even if they'll do so slowly and methodically with a run-heavy script that should work against a bottom 10 run defense. Green Bay's defense could also find some answers. It ranks top 10 on just first downs, especially against the pass, and first downs are where Chicago has thrived all season at No. 2 in DVOA, falling to average on any other down. If the Packers force Caleb Williams to play in 2nd-and-long instead of 2nd-and-3 all game, that will be a huge swing. The Packers run defense isn't good, but it's much worse against inside runs; the Bears rushing attack has been great but is better outside. Chicago has shredded blitzes this season, but Green Bay blitzes among the least in football. Green Bay also got to rest last week, while Chicago played all game and pushed. Those trends warning us against the inexperience of Carolina and Bryce Young also warn us against Chicago and Caleb Williams, and they like the road team in division rematches in the playoffs too. I still have to bet the Bears since my numbers are so strong, and it's worth remembering that 7-seeds are just 1-10 SU since being added to the postseason picture, losing by 10 PPG. Still, it's Packers-Bears. Green bay has won 27 of the last 32 meetings and 12 of the last 14, and it dominated seven of eight quarters this season too, even with Jordan Love hurt for some of them. The last time the Bears beat the Packers in the playoffs was — are you ready for this? — the Sunday after the attack on Pearl Harbor! I'm not buying out of my Bears pick, but the matchup stuff has at least pushed me away from investing further. Instead, I'm looking to invest in unders. On a wintery Saturday in Chicago with possible winds and snow in freezing temperatures, it's a reminder that windy games have gone under 61% of the time the last five seasons. Both teams want to run the ball a ton, and that should shorten the clock. That's typically Green Bay's m.o. too, playing the underdog script. Home teams coming off a home loss are 10-0-1 to the under since 2016 in the playoffs. I'm specifically looking to play first-half unders, though. The Packers were 12-5 to the first-half under this season, while Chicago was 11-6, a combined 68% hit rate. But both teams were 12-5 to the over in the second half. Why is that? Chicago's offense has been far better late in games, 20th by DVOA in the first half versus top five after halftime, including No. 2 in the final quarter. Ben Johnson has been a wizard at halftime adjustments. Chicago's defense has also been at its best by far in just the first quarter, No. 6 by DVOA there versus bottom 10 every other quarter. Green Bay trends a similar direction offensively. The Packers are a league-average offense in the first quarter but rank top five every quarter after that. Matt LaFleur's offense can start maddeningly slow, easing into the waters before ramping things up late. In the two games we saw these teams play already this season, there were just six and 17 points at the half — but 26 and 32 in the second halves. In fact, both games were 0-to-0 at the end of the first quarter, slowly easing things in. I'm betting the first half under 22.5 (-104, BetRivers), and I'll build a little mineshaft along the way. Play just the first quarter under 9.5 too at -115 (Fanatics) and sprinkle a scoreless first quarter at +575 (bet365). In case a slow start does pair with a flurry of a finish yet again, you can also play a negatively correlated SGP using alt lines: first-half under 17.5 and second-half over 20.5 at +537 (FanDuel). Every one of those bets hit in both Packers-Bears games already this season. Let's hope they make them all 3-for-3.

This is the game I'm most excited for this weekend. I think it could be the AFC kingmaker. The Jaguars, not the Texans, are the hottest team in the league. Houston's winning streak is one game longer (nine versus eight), but Jacksonville rates as the much better team over the second half of the season. The Jaguars are No. 3 in DVOA with a top 10 offense, including top 5 passing, and the defense is even better — top five against both the run and the pass, and No. 3 overall. Buffalo is not hot at all, quite literally limping into the playoffs thanks to Josh Allen's foot injury. The Bills have no real receivers for Allen to throw to, and the defense is a big problem, fringe bottom 10 on the season. But Buffalo still has all that playoff experience and, of course, that super alien QB that can swing the entire playoffs if he gets hot. Buffalo's defense is the weak link on the field, especially the run defense. The question is whether Jacksonville's offense can take advantage of Buffalo's specific weaknesses. That's on Liam Coen's staff, and that young coaching staff has been brilliant and finding answers all season. Buffalo ranks bottom 10 against motion and under center plays by EPA, and Jacksonville ranks top 10 at both. The Jags are also up from bottom 10 in explosive plays offensively to top 10 over the back half of the season, while Buffalo's defense ranks bottom 10. Coen can expose Sean McDermott's defense, like many other teams have in past postseasons. But can the Jaguars run the ball? Jacksonville ranked top five in EPA per rush for the first half of the season as Coen worked his magic, just like he did in Tampa Bay last season, but that rushing attack has totally disappeared down the stretch to finish below league average. Buffalo ranks among the bottom three teams in the NFL in rushing defense by DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Coen needs to find ways to get Travis Etienne involved. The run game looks like the key both ways. Jacksonville's run defense has been awesome all season, yet to allow a single 75-yard runner. The defense has been far better against outside runs though, and Buffalo's run game is a power rushing attack and much better attacking on inside runs, ranking 2nd in EPA per play. If Buffalo can control the game by running through the middle and limiting Jacksonville's rushing attack, the Bills will win. But the truth is that the Jaguars have been the far better team over the back half of the season — definitely on defense and special teams, probably even on offense too. Buffalo is also mostly untested. The Bills have faced only one top-10 DVOA opponent all season, and that was Houston. This is probably Buffalo's toughest game all season. The Bills went only 1-3 against teams that entered last weekend with a playoff berth wrapped up, and they scored 12, 20, and 19 in three of those games and seven in the first half against the Patriots before finally playing one good half for their only marquee win of the season. These are not the Bills of the last few years. And even those Bills have struggled on the road for awhile now. Buffalo's offense was elite at home (2nd in DVOA) but closer to league average on the road (13th) this season, and Buffalo is just 14-12 SU on the road since 2023, despite being a clear Super Bowl contender all three seasons. Those aren't exactly marquee wins either. They've come against Patrick Mahomes, Drake Maye, Jared Goff, Aaron Rodgers (twice), Tua Tagovailoa (twice), Geno Smith, Joe Flacco, Justin Fields, Andy Dalton, Sam Howell, Easton Stick, and Shedeur Sanders. In fact, Josh Allen remains winless on the road in the postseason. He's 0-4 both straight up and ATS, and Buffalo has not won a road playoff game since 1993. The Jaguars have been awesome at home this season. Jacksonville ranked bottom 10 offensively on the road and league average on defense by DVOA but was a top-five home defense and fringe top-10 offense. The more I dug into things here, the more I liked Jacksonville — just so many coaching advantages and edges for the Jaguars — but I don't love betting coin flip spreads, especially in the playoffs, and especially against Josh Allen. We don't win any extra money for picking against Allen, you know. Instead, I'm going to get try to get my money by halftime and get out. The Jaguars are 11-6 ATS in the first half this season, second best in the NFL. The Bills were 5-12 ATS, tied for worst in the league with the lowly Saints, who did not win a single first quarter all season. Many of Jacksonville's metrics tell a similar story. The Jaguars offense is worse in the red zone, and it's also worse late in games. Coen sets the team up for success early, but Jacksonville's edge shrinks when it's just down to the talent on the field. The Jaguars have a top-five offense in the first quarter by DVOA but fall to bottom-five in the final quarter. Buffalo's first-half metrics have been terrible all season, especially in defense, but the Bills leap to top 10 by DVOA there after halftime. Let's lock in our best bet: Jaguars 1H +0.5 (-115, Caesars), preferable to a similarly priced moneyline since we can win a halftime tie. If you do like Jacksonville to win the game too, I think you have to be aggressive. I can see a world where the Jaguars are just the much better team and house the Bills, so maybe alts are in play. But if Jacksonville does win the battle of my top two AFC power rating teams, then they're a good investment to keep winning. I'll like Jacksonville in New England next week in a battle of team versus individual, and if that's not the matchup, then the Jags are at home again as the better team. I think Jacksonville has the right mix to make a surprise run all the way to the Super Bowl. I've got the Jags just under 20% to win the AFC, showing clear value on Jacksonville at +600 to win the AFC. I probably won't like the Jags in the Super Bowl so I'll bet that AFC ticket and then nibble a little on an exact Super Bowl outcome: Rams over Jaguars at +4000 (bet365). If you want a fun prop angle in this game, I like Josh Allen to lead the game in rushing yards at +950 (FanDuel). Allen averages 51.4 YPG in the playoffs on the ground, with 54 or more in over half his games. Jacksonville hasn't allowed a 75-yard runner and should limit James Cook some, and Etienne is unpredictable and often needs a long run to hit a high total. He averages just 55 YPG on the ground over the last 12 games. If Allen can push through the foot injury and give us some of us usual magic, that +950 could be juicy.

I am officially putting the Broncos on fraud watch. We're thinking about this team all wrong. I keep seeing Denver grouped in with Seattle and Houston as a defense-only juggernaut and that's just now what this team has been at all for half a season. Since Week 11 (all stats excluding Week 18), the Broncos are better offensively than you're probably giving them credit for — and way, WAY worse defensively. The offense ranks 7th by DVOA during that stretch and could be a saving grace, but the defense has plummeted all the way to 18th, and it has the same rating in games against teams in the top half of the league over the full season. In the first nine weeks this season, Denver ranked top-six against both the run and the pass; over the final nine weeks, the Broncos finished outside the top-12 at both. Those patterns continued even once the overrated Patrick Surtain returned healthy to the lineup, and it's not a new pattern either. Last season this same defense dropped to 14th in DVOA over the exact same stretch to close the season. The defense has also fallen off mightily against top-12 offenses, allowing almost 28 PPG in those matchups. Denver is the 1-seed, but the Broncos trailed in all but two wins this season and got a flurry of one-score victories. Flip those usually coin-flip outcomes and Denver goes 5-12 this year, bottom of the AFC. Bo Nix is 1-8 in his career against winning teams that score over 17 points. Sean Payton has lost four of his last five playoff games, three as a home favorite, with the only win over an 8-8 Matt Nagy and Mitchell Trubisky squad. The Broncos are not your typical 1-seed. Over the past two seasons, Denver has played eight games against teams that finished top 10 by DVOA. The Broncos went 1-7 in those games with an awful -83 point differential. We've been waiting all season for an opportunity to fade this team in this spot as an overrated 1-seed — the question is whether Buffalo is the right team to ride with. The Bills are a great offense and rank 8th by DVOA so they fit those trends above, but Buffalo has struggled on the road for years and comes in with a slew of injuries, though the potential return of Ed Oliver and Curtis Samuel should help. Josh Allen comes in banged up too, but this is the game Buffalo has rebuilt itself for. It will be a tough matchup for Allen against a ferocious pass rush and tough secondary, especially with so few receivers, but the Bills are not a one-man team anymore. Buffalo is at its best when it leans into its power run game, and the Bills can control the clock and attack the heart of this Denver defense that way. The Broncos funnel opponent runners inside but rank 22nd by EPA per play there compared to 2nd on outside runs. That's typically a winning strategy since outside runs can be more dangerous and explosive. But that feeds right into what Buffalo wants to do with James Cook and one of the best offensive lines in the league. The Bills are below league average running outside but rank 2nd on inside runs. Cook and Allen should be in for big games, and don't forget about Buffalo's valuable tush push with Allen in short yardage situations. Denver faced only one opponent all season in the top quarter of the league in rushing, and Jonathan Taylor ran 25 times for 165 yards in a Colts win. And the Bills aren't just a good rushing team — they rank 2nd in DVOA and have the league's leading rusher in Cook. There's reason to believe Buffalo's defense can hang too. The Bills rank top five on the season in EPA per play defending 11 personnel but fall apart against 12 or 21, but Denver doesn't have the RB or TE depth to attack from diverse personnel. Instead, the Broncos feature a ton of short passing, but Buffalo ranks top five against short passes by EPA. You beat the Bills defense by running the ball, and that's not Denver's strength, nor their m.o. The Broncos are actually one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league. We just saw these teams play in last year's playoffs, and it was ugly for Denver. The Broncos hit an early bomb, then gave up 31 straight points. Buffalo finished in the 95th percentile or better EPA and Success Rate, doubling up Denver in first downs and more than doubling them in yardage. The Bills ran 31 more plays with 42 minutes of possession as Cook ran for 120 yards and a score. That's the exact script for these Bills, and it's a version of the team that frankly didn't exist a couple years ago. Historic trends tell us to fade favorites in the Divisional Round, with bettors too focused on past record and not enough on what a team has become. Favorites that won over 75% of their regular season games are just 18-35 ATS this round (34%) over the past two decades, and 1-seeds after a bye are just 15-19-1 ATS (34%), including an ugly 3-10 ATS and 6-7 SU as six-point favorites or worse like Denver. And after all that, we haven't even talked about the biggest mismatch of the weekend — Josh Allen versus Bo Nix. Allen is the best QB in the playoffs, maybe in football, and Nix is the worst quarterback left in the postseason. Allen can handle the Denver pass rush and add value in the run game, while Nix has yet to prove his mettle in big games and is far worse against zone in his career. He could struggle with Sean McDermott's coverages, especially when McDermott disguises things to confuse Nix. When Allen is anything under a field goal favorite in his career, he's 34-19-2 ATS, covering 64% of the time. When Allen faces a defense that allows 20 PPG or less, he's even better at 29-10-1 ATS. That's just ahead of Tom Brady among all players over the last two decades. Translation: elite quarterbacks are going to find a way to score some points, even against your great defense, because elite quarterback equals elite offense, and elite offense beats elite defense. Ready for one last killer trend? Just combine those two. When Josh Allen is under a field goal favorite facing a defense that allows 10 PPG or less, he's a ridiculous 19-3-1 ATS in his career. That's an insane 86% cover rate, and Allen has won 14 of his last 16 such games outright — all but those two memorable Chiefs playoff losses. That trend will apply next round too, by the way, and would against Seattle in a Super Bowl too. I'm ready to buy Allen and Buffalo stock. Start with the Bills moneyline at -102 (FanDuel) to get the win, but we're not stopping there. The Bills have scored at least 24 points in nine of Allen's last 10 playoff games, so over 23.5 is a no brainer at +100 (DraftKings) against this overrated Denver defense. Buffalo averages 29.6 PPG in those games, so play 27+ points too at +200 (DraftKings), a number Allen's Bills have hit eight of the last 10 playoff games. With the Seattle and New England games both expected to be lower-scoring, Buffalo could end up with the highest score of the weekend. Bet them at +800 to do so (FanDuel) and hope the Chicago weather dampens the Rams-Bears game to give us a shot. Buffalo has won eight of its 13 games this season by at least a touchdown and over half of their wins are by double digits, including wins by 19, 20, 27, and 31. If we expect the Bills to score and think Denver might struggle to do so, this could get ugly. Last year in this spot, we smashed Bills alts at -7.5, all the way to -23.5 at +520, so let's run it back and go for the double. If the Bills do win, they may win by margin. Bet Bills -5.5 at +225 and Bills -9.5 at +450, and sprinkle a bit on Buffalo -16.5 at +900 too in case this really gets away from Denver (all FanDuel). Is it finally Buffalo's time? It is on Saturday.