Brandon Anderson

HEDGE vs 28ppg +500 2u future early series. He’s at 28.5 rn so 25+ cashes, u24.5 busts. I don’t trust him to get there in a g7 that trends under with his scoring down again last 2g, so let’s use our strong position to our adv. Right now we either return -2 or 12 on a coin flippy outcome where I lean toward the bad outcome. Unacceptable risk. 4u on this alt FD line wins ~6u and returns ~10u, though we lose our initial investment so +8u. Or if he hits 25+ points we return that 12 and lose these 4, so +8u. Effectively sacrificing 4u upside to lock in +8u instead of risking a -2u outcome. If you want to hedge more aggressively, playing the traditional line u26.5 sets you up for a juicy middle where 25-26p cashes both sides. Or if you play an aggressive under like u20, you get more upside on the down but risk losing both sides at 20-25. I don’t personally like either of those but if you have this position, you’ve given yourself options. You could also play lighter or heavier on this hedge, tilting the outcome toward the side you prefer instead of toward middle ground like my setup. Or you can just let it ride. Your choice. The 30ppg +1100 future is irrelevant. Likely dead, needs 39 points to hit. Always just a long shot bonus, likely an L for 0.5u off our +8u winnings here. Alas, looked great through 4g.

HEDGE vs 28ppg +500 2u future early series. He’s at 28.5 rn so 25+ cashes, u24.5 busts. I don’t trust him to get there in a g7 that trends under with his scoring down again last 2g, so let’s use our strong position to our adv. Right now we either return -2 or 12 on a coin flippy outcome where I lean toward the bad outcome. Unacceptable risk. 4u on this alt FD line wins ~6u and returns ~10u, though we lose our initial investment so +8u. Or if he hits 25+ points we return that 12 and lose these 4, so +8u. Effectively sacrificing 4u upside to lock in +8u instead of risking a -2u outcome. If you want to hedge more aggressively, playing the traditional line u26.5 sets you up for a juicy middle where 25-26p cashes both sides. Or if you play an aggressive under like u20, you get more upside on the down but risk losing both sides at 20-25. I don’t personally like either of those but if you have this position, you’ve given yourself options. You could also play lighter or heavier on this hedge, tilting the outcome toward the side you prefer instead of toward middle ground like my setup. Or you can just let it ride. Your choice. The 30ppg +1100 future is irrelevant. Likely dead, needs 39 points to hit. Always just a long shot bonus, likely an L for 0.5u off our +8u winnings here. Alas, looked great through 4g.

8/27 thru 3g, just 1 short of this # rn. 8+ att all 3g, avg 9 which is playoff career avg, 35-36% shooter, scoring up. Expectation is just barely over 3/g, so he just has to make up the 1 he’s short. Close to 50/50, maybe +125 tops.

Post rd1, Game 7 unders are still a thing: 26-11 since 03, 70% by 7.3ppg, incl 7-4 since bubble (64%). 25 those 26 unders maxed 200 or less, about half 190 or less. G7 under mineshaft, all the way down. 📉

Post rd1, Game 7 unders are still a thing: 26-11 since 03, 70% by 7.3ppg, incl 7-4 since bubble (64%). 25 those 26 unders maxed 200 or less, about half 190 or less. G7 under mineshaft, all the way down. 📉

Post rd1, Game 7 unders are still a thing: 26-11 since 03, 70% by 7.3ppg, incl 7-4 since bubble (64%). 25 those 26 unders maxed 200 or less, about half 190 or less. G7 under mineshaft, all the way down. 📉

Post rd1, Game 7 unders are still a thing: 26-11 since 03, 70% by 7.3ppg, incl 7-4 since bubble (64%). 25 those 26 unders maxed 200 or less, about half 190 or less. G7 under mineshaft, all the way down. 📉

Way more space in G1, dancing & getting that jumper up, attack late. Scheme not personnel. Raps junked it up, threw doubles at him. Det he can score on 1v1. 29ppg v Det, upside is there: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-best-bets-today-our-4-player-prop-escalators-for-james-harden-marcus-smart-more-on-thursday-may-7

Harden 7a on 14 potentials G1, passing lanes are there, 7.7apg w Cavs. Him/Cade usually around 7, Cade goes down in losses, Harden goes up late series. H2H DK line is absolutely horrendous & we may even be able to hedge later if we get a lead: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-best-bets-today-our-4-player-prop-escalators-for-james-harden-marcus-smart-more-on-thursday-may-7

Said on 🪣 he should be fav but didn’t realize his price was so long, adding with Tobi as a direct play against Duren, together ~ +215: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-picks-predictions-props-for-pistons-vs-cavaliers-game-5-on-wednesday-may-13

7+ reb all but 2 playoff games, 8-8-9 this series just one awful outlier g2 with 1r. Needs 11rpg if this goes 6, 10 if it goes 7, feels in play: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-picks-predictions-props-for-pistons-vs-cavaliers-game-5-on-wednesday-may-13