THE BLITZ 📽️: 84.09 RushY 1. Tough Matchup, but Line May Be Overadjusted The Chiefs lead the league in fewest rushing yards allowed per game (63.2), but this stat is heavily influenced by the fewest rushing attempts allowed (17.3 per game). This betting line reflects Kansas City’s defensive dominance but may overlook Mixon's volume and workload. 2. Volume is Key Mixon ranks 3rd in the NFL in rushing attempts per game (19.73), significantly higher than the average RBs the Chiefs have faced recently. His workload alone gives him a higher probability of hitting this number, as he’s averaging 82.7 rushing yards per game this season. Even against a stout run defense, volume often overcomes efficiency concerns. 3. Recent Success Against KC The Chiefs' recent opponents have shown they’re not invincible against the run: Jerome Ford: 7 carries for 84 yards, TD Gus Edwards/Justice Hill: Combined 18 carries for 70 yards, TD Sincere McCormick: 12 carries for 64 yards Chuba Hubbard: 16 carries for 58 yards, TD None of these backs match Mixon’s talent or role as a bell cow, yet they’ve found ways to succeed against Kansas City. 4. Game Script and Workload Expectation Kansas City has been involved in close games lately, with six straight decided by three points or less (or OT) before their 21-7 win over Cleveland. If this matchup stays competitive as expected (close spread), Mixon should continue to see a high volume of carries, making 60.5 rushing yards well within reach. 5. Injury to KC’s Run Defense The Chiefs will be without one of their top run defenders, Chamarri Conner, which could slightly weaken their ability to contain Mixon. FanDuel already has this line up to 64.5. I'll take a shot on the overcorrection.