Allan Lem's Picks
Today
J.Hart o9.5 Rebs-135
BKN
122
-
124
NYK
0.68u
End 4th
No KAT or McBride.
1
D.Booker u39.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-115
PHX
83
-
98
OKC
0.29u
4th 0:16
Playing this at a quarter unit. This opened at 40.5 PRA and has dropped down to 38.5 at some spots. I was able to grab it at 39.5.
OKC ranks 1st in defensive efficiency. Just held Brandon Ingram to a 30 PRA in a similar situation as Booker where Booker is going to have to do everything for a depleted Suns team without Durant and Beal.
Nurkic and Allen are both questionable so you could wait for their news. If they are both out I could see this number moving up, but it would increase the chance of a blowout and make this Suns offense even more inefficient. Have Booker projected at 37.5 PRA with Nurkic and Allen playing. This is more a bet in favor of this elite OKC defense than it is against Booker.
2
1
O.Toppin u4.5 Rebs-135
MIA
124
-
111
IND
0.25u
FINAL 11/16
Tailing @TurveyBets and the Prop Model on this one. Averaging 3.1 rebounds per game this season on a little less than 7 rebounds chances. Assuming he sees a similar amount of chances tonight, he’d need to capture nearly 70% of his opportunities.
Have this projected closer to 3.6 rebounds so will play this for a quarter unit.
1
1
J.Embiid u36.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-120
PHI
86
-
98
ORL
1u
FINAL 11/16
This is a brutal matchup for Joel Embiid against a Magic defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing centers this season. The Magic also rank 2nd in defensive efficiency this season.
Embiid played 26 minutes in his season debut and projections have him at 27 minutes tonight with a 32.14 PRA projection. I do think there's a chance he could see a minute or two more, but I'd be shocked if they pushed him past 30 minutes. Given a likely minute restriction and this poor matchup, I think this is a good time to take less than 36.5 PRA.
5
1
Pending
Futures
Past Performance | |||
---|---|---|---|
Yesterday | 0-0-0 | 0% | 0.00u |
Last 7 Days | 7-3-0 | 70% | 2.49u |
Last 30 Days | 8-4-0 | 67% | 1.49u |
All Time | 9-4-0 | 69% | 2.43u |
Top Leagues | |||
---|---|---|---|
NBA | 9-4-0 | 69% | 2.43u |
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