Giants vs. Saints Odds & Betting Predictions - October 5, 2025

THE BLITZ is forecasting 36.55 pass attempts for Spencer Rattler. The oddsmakers' implied projection is 33.77 pass attempts, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the over, you’d be projected to win 71% of the time resulting in a 33% ROI with expected value of $38.38 (based on a $100 wager). Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

Sorry Jaxson spell your name normal

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We bet on the Giants last week and won easily with them winning outright against the Chargers. With that being said, I could not be more ready to fade Dart and the Giants. Not only will this be Jaxson Dart’s first ever road game, but he also lost his best threat in Malik Nabers. Their win over the Chargers seemed to be more about poor play from Los Angeles than a strong performance from New York. The Chargers gifted the Giants good field position all game and handed them most of their points. While our bet on the Giants cashed, I wasn’t very impressed. Dart also got banged up in that game, taking 9 hits and 5 sacks. His debut was far from perfect despite the win. He only passed for 111 yards and did most of his production on the ground. Unfortunately for him, the Saints now have film on him, something the Chargers did not have. Dart will likely face a QB spy, which should limit his ability to scramble and make plays with his legs. I don’t think he will be able to exploit the New Orleans secondary. Rookie quarterbacks making their road debut generally don’t fare well, and I think that continues here. Sure, the Saints are winless, but they’ve been playing inspired football with close losses to the Cardinals, 49ers, and Bills. Spencer Rattler has actually looked solid, ranking 15th in adjusted EPA/play this season. The run game is also strong, sitting 11th in rush success rate. Most importantly, Taysom Hill makes his season debut today. Hill is a game changer as he completely opens up the offense and takes pressure off Rattler’s back. He’s elite on short yardage downs and I think he’ll be the difference in this game. The Saints come in at 28th in our luck rankings and have had some unfortunate breaks go against them. The 0-4 record looks bad, but this team is better than it appears. The Giants are in a major letdown spot here and I think we see them come back down to earth. I’m taking the Saints to pick up their first win of the season today.

When Nabers missed a pair of games last season, it was Slayton who stepped in as the Giants' top wide receiver. He averaged 7 catches, 11 targets, and 89.5 yards in 2 games without Nabers. Slayton paced the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards in both games. Slayton was the Giants' leading receiver last week with Nabers leaving in the 2nd quarter. He only finished with 3 catches for 44 yards, as the Giants played super conservatively as they tried to hold on to an unexpected lead over the Chargers. The WR1 role seemed to be there though.

Tailing @nick_giffen

Jaxson Dart over 27.5 pass att (+100 at BetMGM) Had 20 on 28 dropbacks in a game they led nearly the whole way last week against LAC Unlikely to lead that much, should be in a more neutral script which would likley require more dropbacks Also less likely to get sacked or scramble as NO is 29th in pressure rate vs expected while LAC is 7th NYG should have plenty of snaps against the fastest paced team in the league NO should be able to move the ball on the ground efficiently (see @the_oddsmaker 's note on Kendre Miller who I was also considering), leading to more chunk plays and a quicker turnaround of possession back to the Giants Overall, I'm conservatively projecting Dart for around 34.5 dropbacks with some decent upside for more, meaning he'd need 6 or fewer combined scrambles/sacks. I think against a lower pressure Saints team, he'll stay under that number. I'd play over 28.5 at +100 or longer odds

Miller is a back I’ve been high on all week and someone who shouldn’t be available in any leagues anymore. With Kamara likely on the trade block, I doubt the Saints need to “showcase” him. If anything, they may want to keep him healthy for a potential move, which could open the door for Miller to see extra touches here. Drafted in the 3rd round in 2023, he’s missed time with injuries, but I’ve always liked his upside.. he gives me Aaron Jones vibes. The efficiency has been real: Miller is averaging 4.4 yards after contact, the 2nd highest among qualified RBs. He now faces a Giants defense that has allowed the 3rd most yards before contact, and he runs outside the tackles at a higher rate than average. That’s a direct hit against a Giants run D that has allowed +4.54 yards over expected per outside carry.. nearly double the next-worst unit! The Saints are rare favorites here, and I project them to play with a lead at a +41% higher rate than usual. That should create extra rushing volume to spread around. I have Miller projected closer to 37.5 yards, with plenty of upside in this spot and beyond.

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NoVig

One week of game film on Jaxson Dart might be all Brandon Staley needs to shutdown the Giants flow offensively.

Talked about this on solo pod. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-favorites-sports-betting-podcast/id1293897220?i=1000728964312

Week 5 Hot Read @wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/jOp90ojD3Wb

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