We have you covered with a total of nine NFL player prop picks for Sunday of Week 5.
Our staff has locked in props for almost all of Sunday's big games, starting with Broncos vs. Eagles, Texans vs. Ravens, among others, at 1:00 p.m. ET. Then, we have a few picks for later in the day for Buccaneers vs. Seahawks and Commanders vs. Chargers. We also have bets for Giants vs. Saints, Lions vs. Bengals, and more.
Let's dig into our NFL player props and best bets for Week 5 of the NFL season on October 5.
NFL Prop Picks Week 5
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Broncos vs. Eagles
Jalen Hurts Under 191.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Jalen Hurts has had one decent passing game this season. He threw 32 times for 226 yards in Week 3 as the Rams jumped out to a big lead and forced Philly into catch-up game script.
Hurts hasn't reached 25 pass attempts in any other game. Last week, Philly went right back to the slow, ground-based offensive plan. The Eagles did not complete a pass in the second half in last week's win over the Buccaneers.
Denver has allowed the ninth-fewest passing yards per game and has talented cornerbacks to match up with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
More importantly, it's a challenging spot for the Broncos as a team as they played on Monday Night Football. It's hard to see them outplaying the Eagles to a degree that would force Hurts into more passing situations.
Pick: Jalen Hurts Under 191.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Dolphins vs. Panthers
De'Von Achane Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
By Brit Devine
This is one of the more confusing lines of the week to me.
The Panthers have one of the worst run defenses in the league, allowing the sixth-highest YPC, the 10th-most yards, and the sixth-highest percentage of yards to come on explosive run plays, which just happens to be what De'Von Achane is all about.
It's also nice to see the Dolphins giving Achane the closeout role — he had nine rushing attempts in the fourth quarter last week (20 overall) compared to Ollie Gordon's single touch.
Achane has also been good this season, averaging nearly five yards per carry, with explosive runs mixed in at a high rate.
With Tyreek Hill out, Achane and the ground game should be the focus for Miami in this one.
Pick: De'Von Achane Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Texans vs. Ravens
Woody Marks Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
By Kyle Murray
The Woody Marks takeover officially commenced last week, when he played 58% of the snaps and out-touched Nick Chubb 22-15.
Marks was an excellent receiving back in college, and that has translated to the NFL already. Last week, Marks caught four of his five targets and turned that into 50 receiving yards.
Marks is averaging 16 receiving yards per game despite not really seeing much of a consistent role until Week 3.
He also gets a good matchup against the Ravens, who have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing running backs so far this season.
Pick: Woody Marks Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Cowboys vs. Jets
Isaiah Davis Over 1.5 Receptions (+135)
I like Breece Hall from a receiving perspective in this spot, but the lines for Isaiah Davis also have my attention.
He had a couple catches in relief of Braelon Allen last week and profiles as more of a pass-catcher in that backup RB role.
The Jets rank fourth in running back target share through four games; Dallas has allowed the seventh-most targets and fifth-most receptions to running backs.
The Cowboys defense is basically beatable at every level so any offensive player who can get on the field is viable.
Davis posted a 29% route rate last week, and I'd expect that to tick up in Week 5.
Pick: Isaiah Davis Over 1.5 Receptions (+135)
Giants vs. Saints
Darius Slayton Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
By Charlie Wright
Malik Nabers is done for the season with an ACL injury.
When Nabers missed a pair of games last season, it was Darius Slayton who stepped in as the Giants' top wide receiver.
Nabers sat out Weeks 5 and 6 last season, and Slayton averaged seven catches, 11 targets, and 89.5 yards in those two games. He paced the team in targets, receptions and receiving yards in both games.
Slayton was the Giants' leading receiver last week with Nabers leaving in the second quarter. He only finished with three catches for 44 yards as the Giants played super conservatively trying to hold on to an unexpected lead over the Chargers.
The Saints rank 27th in EPA/play allowed and 29th in dropback EPA allowed.
The big key is the pace.
The Saints are at 25.8 seconds per play, which leads the league by a mile. No team is within 2 seconds of them. This has been a staple of Kellen Moore offenses, and he's ramped it up in his first season as a head coach.
For context, we haven't seen a team finish a season under 26 seconds per play since the Bucs in 2022. It's happened just five times in the previous 10 seasons.
This should be a tight game with plenty of play volume on both sides.
Pick: Darius Slayton Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Buccaneers vs. Seahawks
Rachaad White Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+140)
Bucky Irving will miss this game, which means that Rachaad White should be in for a heavy role.
While Sean Tucker is likely to get the role of the change-of-pace running back this weekend, he's only played three snaps all season
While White is not the best runner in the league, he's used heavily in the passing game, and he's gotten decent usage in the red zone.
The matchup against the Seahawks is one of the toughest in the league, but the Bucs' implied team total is still 21 points. So, they are likely going to be scoring.
I have the true odds here around +100, making this a great bet.
Pick: Rachaad White Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+140)
Titans vs. Cardinals
Elic Ayomanor Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+450)
By Grant Neiffer
These odds are far too high for Elic Ayomanor given his role in this offense. He has played between 73-82% of snaps in every single game of the season.
He has three red-zone targets, two of which turned into touchdowns.
The matchup is bad, but just like the game script has been in every Titans game this season, they will likely be throwing all game long.
Ayomanor has arguably been the WR1 this season for the Titans, with better numbers than Calvin Ridley and more volume.
Add in the injuries to Ridley, and the chance he may not play (or may be limited), and these odds are far too high.
Pick: Elic Ayomanor Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+450)
Lions vs. Bengals
Ja'Marr Chase Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
By Jordan Vanek
The Lions just placed their top corner, D.J. Reed, on IR, and safety Kerby Joseph hasn’t been practicing. Detroit also leans heavily on man coverage.
While Jake Browning hasn’t looked great, his struggles have come against tough defenses on the road.
Back at home, I expect Cincinnati’s offense to be more productive, with the passing game running through Ja'Marr Chase again.
I like him to clear 63.5 yards in this matchup.
Pick: Ja'Marr Chase Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Commanders vs. Chargers
Quentin Johnston Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+175)
By Grant Neiffer
The leap forward that Johnston has made this season has been massive — he's been one of the best WRs in the league through four weeks.
The volume has been great, with Johnston seeing 7+ targets in every single game.
While Keenan Allen has been more of the go-to guy in the red zone, Johnston has only one fewer red-zone target (five) and is always a threat to house the ball anywhere on the field.
The Chargers are a small favorite in this game, but they should still be passing the ball heavily.
I have the true odds here around +140, making this another great bet.
