There is a value opportunity on Jordan Mason's receptions prop. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 1.05 receptions, while sportsbooks imply 2.11. The model believes there is a 70% chance he records fewer than 1.5 receptions, so there is some value on the under at +128. (This play is good down to at least -153.) (NOTE: If Aaron Jones doesn't play, this loses significant value. I'm expecting Jones to play, though.) Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

THE BLITZ is forecasting 0.66 interceptions for Tua Tagovailoa compared to 0.96 interceptions implied by sportsbooks, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 64% of the time, resulting in a 51% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $51.28. (This play is good down to at least -126.) Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz