
Derek Carty

118
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Derek Carty
Last 30d: 21-24-0 (+1.83u)
Derek Carty's Picks
Today
Pending
J.Mason u1.5 Recs+128
MIN


LAC
1u
10/24 12:15 AM
There is a value opportunity on Jordan Mason's receptions prop. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 1.05 receptions, while sportsbooks imply 2.11. The model believes there is a 70% chance he records fewer than 1.5 receptions, so there is some value on the under at +128. (This play is good down to at least -153.)
(NOTE: If Aaron Jones doesn't play, this loses significant value. I'm expecting Jones to play, though.)
Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz
8
5
T.Tagovailoa u0.5 Int+136
MIA


ATL
1u
10/26 5:00 PM
THE BLITZ is forecasting 0.66 interceptions for Tua Tagovailoa compared to 0.96 interceptions implied by sportsbooks, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 64% of the time, resulting in a 51% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $51.28. (This play is good down to at least -126.)
Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz
11
4
Futures
Past Performance | |||
---|---|---|---|
Yesterday | 0-0-0 | 0% | 0.00u |
Last 7 Days | 7-7-0 | 50% | 1.95u |
Last 30 Days | 21-24-0 | 47% | 1.83u |
All Time | 44-67-7 | 37% | 1.13u |
Top Leagues | |||
---|---|---|---|
NFL | 29-35-0 | 45% | 0.90u |
MLB | 15-32-7 | 28% | 0.23u |
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