Saints vs. Bills Odds & Betting Predictions - September 28, 2025
Saints at Bills
5:00 pm • CBSSaints at Bills Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() Saints 1-4 | +12.5 | +14.5-110 | o48.5-108 | +800 |
![]() Bills 4-0 | u46.5 | -14.5-110 | u48.5-112 | -1500 |

Highmark StadiumOrchard Park
Saints vs. Bills Expert Picks

The Degenerates
Last 30d: 80-64-2 (+11.5u)
BUF -15.5 (Live)-108
1.08u

Jeremiah Rose
Last 30d: 46-39-1 (+0.3u)
J.Allen o5.5 Rush Att-140
0.14u
J.Palmer o1.5 Recs-140
0.14u

Nick Giffen
Last 30d: 55-118-1 (+17.1u)
NO +15.5-115
1u
Luck Rankings

Derek Carty
Last 30d: 18-23-0 (-1.3u)
T.Johnson u3.5 Rush Att+125
1.25u
THE BLITZ is forecasting 2.88 rush attempts for Ty Johnson compared to 5.00 rush attempts implied by sportsbooks, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 63% of the time, resulting in a 47% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $47.39. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

Brian Bitler
Last 30d: 78-82-1 (-21.5u)
NO +14.5-105
2.86u

Cam Is Money
Last 30d: 66-83-3 (-15.8u)
R.Davis o17.5 Rush Yds-104
1u

Sandy Plashkes
Last 30d: 85-107-3 (-2.9u)
A.Kamara o19.5 Rec Yds-116
1.16u

Sean Koerner
Last 30d: 37-41-0 (-1.7u)
A.Kamara u14.5 Rush Att-125
0.63u
Last week was wild. The Saints lost 44–13, yet Kamara finished with 18 carries. The reason: a ridiculous first half where New Orleans ran 46 plays because Seattle kept scoring fast, including a punt-return TD that handed the ball right back. One drive was 16 plays with 5 Kamara carries, Kendre Miller got the next series and went three-and-out, then Kamara came back for another 10+ play drive with 4 more. They are averaging 68.7 plays per game, tied for the league lead. That kind of volume is due for regression.
Now they are +14.5 dogs at Buffalo in what should turn into more of a trailing (2+ scores) pass heavy game script. However, the Bills lead the league in time of possession, and with a 2+ score lead they go at a very slow pace..letting roughly 31 seconds tick between snaps, which suppresses their opponents play volume. I expect Buffalo to get out front, bleed clock, and push the Saints toward more Kamara checkdowns instead of piling up carries. There is also a real chance Kendre Miller eats a bit more early-down work as the season goes as they evaluate for 2026 and beyond; if his occassional series isn’t a 3 and out, that would eat into Kamara’s carry ceiling.
I have Kamara at 13.8 rush attempts with about 60% to stay under 14.5. This is about the number. Getting exposure to 14 is meaningful, roughly worth ~10%, while 13.5 would be a true coin flip.

Brandon Anderson
Last 30d: 33-119-0 (-29.5u)
BUF o29.5 Team Total-170
0.5u
Gilles Gallant
Last 30d: 26-81-0 (-11.7u)
C.Olave Anytime TD Scorer Yes+275
1.38u

Stuck 🚨
Last 30d: 55-65-2 (-0.7u)
NO +15.5-110
0.36u
Have to play this grossness smaller with Bills injuries.

Action Pod NFL Picks
Last 30d: 51-132-0 (-28.6u)
BUF o29.5 Team Total-170
0.59u
@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/QiU46AL9YWb

Moneyline Hacks
Last 30d: 124-138-5 (+25.8u)
C.Olave u5.5 Recs+120
1.2u
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Firefighter Bets
Last 30d: 144-130-1 (+2.8u)
D.Kincaid o34.5 Rec Yds-115
1u

Boomer Betz
Last 30d: 135-121-2 (+16.1u)
S.Rattler u211.5 Pass Yds-135
0.74u

Mjaybrod
Last 30d: 80-94-3 (-7.5u)
A.Kamara o19.5 Rec Yds-110
1u
Tailing @moneyplayzz

Markus Markets
Last 30d: 36-27-1 (+11.4u)
K.Coleman o19.5 Longest Reception-110
0.91u

💰🦡 Jake
Last 30d: 108-136-5 (+25.1u)
J.Palmer Anytime TD Scorer Yes+295
0.1u

Allan Lem
Last 30d: 123-118-8 (-3.2u)
J.Allen u6.5 Rush Att+105
0.48u
Tailing @nick_giffen

Nick Giffen
Last 30d: 55-118-1 (+17.1u)
J.Allen u6.5 Rush Att+105
1u
Josh Allen under 6.5 rush att MGM/365
NO 5th worst pressure rate vs. expected so far in 2025 and 5th worst raw pressure rate
Josh Allen scramble rate has decreased by more than 10% with a clean pocket than facing pressure since the start of last year
The Saints also play zone at a top-six rate in the NFL, including Cover 3 at the third-highest rate which is the hardest to scramble against with an extra man in the box and zone coverage with the DBs facing the QB
As huge faves, likely won’t be asked to do much designed w/legs
Might get a couple kneel downs, but with a strong chance of a blowout, it would be Trubisky taking the knees in that scenario. Since start of last year:
Trubisky has taken all the 2H kneels in double-digit BUF wins
Allen has taken all the 2H knees in single-digit BUF wins
Trubisky with 18 2H kneels across 8 games, Allen with 12 2H kneels across 6 games

Jim Sannes
Last 30d: 18-58-0 (-17.5u)
Over 48.5-105
0.95u
Have this total way high due as the Bills should be able to name their score, and I do think the Saints' offense will do at least *something*.

FTN Fantasy
Last 30d: 79-70-1 (+5.9u)
BUF -15.5-110
1u
Saints vs. Bills Previews & Analysis
Saints vs. Bills Props
Prop Projections
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Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Saints vs. Bills Public Betting Percentages
Betting Trends
- Bills are 4-0 in their last 5 games.
- Bills are 2-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Bills are 1-0 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Bills' last 4 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Bills' 3 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
Over/Under History
Last 5 Matchups
Saints vs. Bills Injury Updates

Saints Injuries
- Chase YoungDE
Young is out with calf
Out
- Trevor PenningOL
Penning is out with toe
Out
- Jordan HowdenDB
Howden is questionable with oblique
Questionable

Bills Injuries
- Mitch WishnowskyP
Wishnowsky is out with back
Out
- Tyler BassK
Bass is out with hip
Out
Team Stats
Saints vs. Bills Odds Comparison
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Saints at Bills Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
---|---|---|
![]() Saints 1-4 | o16.5-109 | u16.5-114 |
![]() Bills 4-0 | o31.5-105 | u31.5-117 |