Saints vs. Bills Odds & Betting Predictions - September 28, 2025

Saints at Bills

5:00 pm • CBS
19 - 31

Saints at Bills Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Saints
1-4
+12.5
+14.5-110
o48.5-108
+800
Bills
4-0
u46.5
-14.5-110
u48.5-112
-1500
location pinSunday 5:00 p.m.
September 28, 2025
Highmark StadiumOrchard Park
Saints vs. Bills Expert Picks
The Degenerates
The Degenerates
Last 30d: 80-64-2 (+11.5u)
BUF -15.5 (Live)-108
1.08u
Jeremiah Rose
Jeremiah Rose
Last 30d: 46-39-1 (+0.3u)
J.Allen o5.5 Rush Att-140
0.14u
J.Palmer o1.5 Recs-140
0.14u
Nick Giffen
Nick Giffen
Last 30d: 55-118-1 (+17.1u)
NO +15.5-115
1u
Luck Rankings
Derek Carty
Derek Carty
Last 30d: 18-23-0 (-1.3u)
T.Johnson u3.5 Rush Att+125
1.25u
THE BLITZ is forecasting 2.88 rush attempts for Ty Johnson compared to 5.00 rush attempts implied by sportsbooks, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 63% of the time, resulting in a 47% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $47.39. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz
Brian Bitler
Brian Bitler
Last 30d: 78-82-1 (-21.5u)
NO +14.5-105
2.86u
Cam Is Money
Cam Is Money
Last 30d: 66-83-3 (-15.8u)
R.Davis o17.5 Rush Yds-104
1u
Sandy Plashkes
Sandy Plashkes
Last 30d: 85-107-3 (-2.9u)
A.Kamara o19.5 Rec Yds-116
1.16u
Sean Koerner
Sean Koerner
Last 30d: 37-41-0 (-1.7u)
A.Kamara u14.5 Rush Att-125
0.63u
Last week was wild. The Saints lost 44–13, yet Kamara finished with 18 carries. The reason: a ridiculous first half where New Orleans ran 46 plays because Seattle kept scoring fast, including a punt-return TD that handed the ball right back. One drive was 16 plays with 5 Kamara carries, Kendre Miller got the next series and went three-and-out, then Kamara came back for another 10+ play drive with 4 more. They are averaging 68.7 plays per game, tied for the league lead. That kind of volume is due for regression. Now they are +14.5 dogs at Buffalo in what should turn into more of a trailing (2+ scores) pass heavy game script. However, the Bills lead the league in time of possession, and with a 2+ score lead they go at a very slow pace..letting roughly 31 seconds tick between snaps, which suppresses their opponents play volume. I expect Buffalo to get out front, bleed clock, and push the Saints toward more Kamara checkdowns instead of piling up carries. There is also a real chance Kendre Miller eats a bit more early-down work as the season goes as they evaluate for 2026 and beyond; if his occassional series isn’t a 3 and out, that would eat into Kamara’s carry ceiling. I have Kamara at 13.8 rush attempts with about 60% to stay under 14.5. This is about the number. Getting exposure to 14 is meaningful, roughly worth ~10%, while 13.5 would be a true coin flip.
Brandon Anderson
Brandon Anderson
Last 30d: 33-119-0 (-29.5u)
BUF o29.5 Team Total-170
0.5u
Gilles Gallant
Gilles Gallant
Last 30d: 26-81-0 (-11.7u)
C.Olave Anytime TD Scorer Yes+275
1.38u
Stuck 🚨
Stuck 🚨
Last 30d: 55-65-2 (-0.7u)
NO +15.5-110
0.36u
Have to play this grossness smaller with Bills injuries.
Action Pod NFL Picks
Action Pod NFL Picks
Last 30d: 51-132-0 (-28.6u)
BUF o29.5 Team Total-170
0.59u
Moneyline Hacks
Moneyline Hacks
Last 30d: 124-138-5 (+25.8u)
C.Olave u5.5 Recs+120
1.2u
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Firefighter Bets
Firefighter Bets
Last 30d: 144-130-1 (+2.8u)
D.Kincaid o34.5 Rec Yds-115
1u
Boomer Betz
Boomer Betz
Last 30d: 135-121-2 (+16.1u)
S.Rattler u211.5 Pass Yds-135
0.74u
Mjaybrod
Mjaybrod
Last 30d: 80-94-3 (-7.5u)
A.Kamara o19.5 Rec Yds-110
1u
Tailing @moneyplayzz
Markus Markets
Markus Markets
Last 30d: 36-27-1 (+11.4u)
K.Coleman o19.5 Longest Reception-110
0.91u
💰🦡 Jake
💰🦡 Jake
Last 30d: 108-136-5 (+25.1u)
J.Palmer Anytime TD Scorer Yes+295
0.1u
Allan Lem
Allan Lem
Last 30d: 123-118-8 (-3.2u)
J.Allen u6.5 Rush Att+105
0.48u
Tailing @nick_giffen
Nick Giffen
Nick Giffen
Last 30d: 55-118-1 (+17.1u)
J.Allen u6.5 Rush Att+105
1u
Josh Allen under 6.5 rush att MGM/365 NO 5th worst pressure rate vs. expected so far in 2025 and 5th worst raw pressure rate Josh Allen scramble rate has decreased by more than 10% with a clean pocket than facing pressure since the start of last year The Saints also play zone at a top-six rate in the NFL, including Cover 3 at the third-highest rate which is the hardest to scramble against with an extra man in the box and zone coverage with the DBs facing the QB As huge faves, likely won’t be asked to do much designed w/legs Might get a couple kneel downs, but with a strong chance of a blowout, it would be Trubisky taking the knees in that scenario. Since start of last year: Trubisky has taken all the 2H kneels in double-digit BUF wins Allen has taken all the 2H knees in single-digit BUF wins Trubisky with 18 2H kneels across 8 games, Allen with 12 2H kneels across 6 games
Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes
Last 30d: 18-58-0 (-17.5u)
Over 48.5-105
0.95u
Have this total way high due as the Bills should be able to name their score, and I do think the Saints' offense will do at least *something*.
FTN Fantasy
FTN Fantasy
Last 30d: 79-70-1 (+5.9u)
BUF -15.5-110
1u

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Saints vs. Bills Props

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Saints vs. Bills Public Betting Percentages

Away Logo

Saints

Public

30%

Bets%

70%

Money%

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Bills
2-21-21-01-21-0
Saints
2-31-21-11-01-3

Over/Under History

overallhome o/uaway o/ufavorite o/uunderdog o/u
Bills
3-13-00-12-11-0
Saints
3-21-22-00-13-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Bills
4-0N/AN/A3-01-0
Saints
1-4N/AN/A1-00-4

Last 5 Matchups

dateopponentscorespreadover/undermoneyline
Sep 19thMIAW 31-21-11.5 LO 50.5BUF -800
Sep 14th@NYJW 30-10-6 WU 47.5BUF -290
Sep 8thBALW 41-40+1.5 WO 51.5BUF +105
Aug 23rd@TBW 23-19-1.5 WO 37.5BUF -125
Aug 18th@CHIL 0-38+2.5 LU 40.5CHI +120

Saints vs. Bills Injury Updates

Saints Injuries

  • Chase Young
    DE

    Young is out with calf

    Out

  • Trevor Penning
    OL

    Penning is out with toe

    Out

  • Jordan Howden
    DB

    Howden is questionable with oblique

    Questionable

Bills Injuries

  • Mitch Wishnowsky
    P

    Wishnowsky is out with back

    Out

  • Tyler Bass
    K

    Bass is out with hip

    Out

Team Stats
298
Total Yards
356
65
Total Plays
57
4.6
Yards Per Play
6.2
126
YDS
209
18/28
Comps/Atts
16/22
3.516
YPA
7.64
1/1
TDs/INTs
2/1
3/17
Sacks/Yards
3/18
189
Rush Yards
165
34
Attempts
32
5.559
YPC
5.156
1
TDs
2

Turnovers

0
Fumbles Lost
0
1
Interceptions
1

Efficiency

2/4 50%
Redzone
2/3 66.67%
5/13 0%
3rd Down
3/10 0%
0/2 0%
4th Down
0/1 0%

First Downs

22
Total
20
7
Pass
10
14
Rush
9
1
Penalty
1
4/41
Penalties/Yards
11/55
28:39
Possession
31:21

Saints vs. Bills Odds Comparison

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Saints at Bills Team Totals

MatchupOverUnder
Saints
1-4
o16.5-109
u16.5-114
Bills
4-0
o31.5-105
u31.5-117