Vikings vs. Chargers Odds & Betting Predictions - October 24, 2025

Tailing Davis Sanchez

#SodaBet

Myles Price anytime TD (+4500 DraftKings, 0.1u, +4000 at FD is fine) The Price is Right Price is MIN's punt returner and main kick returner LAC is dead last in the NFL in DVOA and yards per return on kickoffs, so when MIN does get a return they should be much more efficient, especially having faced a more difficult kickoff coverage than average schedule on the season so far. MIN should also have an overall higher volume of kickoff returns for twofold reason 1. The Chargers are a better offense than they've faced on average this year, so an extra score or two is likely 2. Chargers K Cameron Dicker kicks into touchbacks at the ninth lowest rate, and has had zero out of bounds kickoffs and zero kickoffs short of the landing zone, so in total Dicker allows the sixth-highest rate of returns per kickoff Add in punts, which while should be lower in volume thanks to the Chargers strong offense and lower rate of returnable punts, they've been pretty neutral in punt return coverage. Adjusting these punt and kick volumes and efficiencies by the opposing defenses to Price's volume and efficiency numbers, and I'm getting 37-1 as fair, so The Price is Right at 45-1 for an anytime TD

📚Player Profit 🔑 Vikings ML +140 (Player Profit) 2u Wentz is undefeated in his career on TNF. The Chargers are banged up, i like the value here with the Vikings. Code: sirlocks for 10% off when you get funded at https://www.playerprofit.com/

This is a good spot to buy low on Metellus, who’s only cleared this number in 2 of 6 games. With Harrison Smith returning to his full-time role, we saw Metellus shift back to the usage that made him so valuable last season. He lined up in the “sweet spot” (box/slot) at a 37% higher rate than his season average and played only one snap deep after spending 40% of his season there prior. That role change alone gives him about a +1.0 expected tackle boost tonight, as he’ll be more involved against the run while still staying active in coverage—he actually leads the team with 21 tackles in coverage this year. The Vikings are expected to face about +5.5 more completions than their season average against the Chargers’ pass-heavy offense, which directly increases Metellus’ tackle opportunities, even though they project to face 6.9 fewer rush attempts. It’s also worth noting his schedule has been tough—he’d have roughly +3.5 more tackles this year if he’d faced a league-average slate for safeties. The Chargers are the ideal matchup for him since their offense boosts tackle opportunities for LB/CB/S hybrids like Metellus by roughly +8%. The one downside is that L.A.’s scorekeeper tends to be stingy with assists, consistently ranking near the bottom of the league in that category. However, Metellus doesn’t rely heavily on assists and records a high rate of solo tackles. A sneaky angle would be taking his tackles-only prop at over 4.5 (+124), which removes the scorekeeper variable entirely. I’m sticking with over 6.5 tackles + assists since I still project him at 7.3 even after adjusting for the scoring environment..roughly a 60% chance to clear 6.5 given the return to his usual role in the “sweet spot”.

Min TT o20.5 (1u, +100 at Bet365) In 4 games with Wentz + Darrisaw Sched-adj Expected Score is right about 25.5 pts/gm Chargers are right around league avg D, even accounting for HFA I have well above 20.5 (closer to 24 for MIN TT) Addison in 4th game back from suspension, Aaron Jones to play, first game with a full complement of weapons on offense for MIN Can run all over this Chargers D on the outsides LAC allows just over 6 ypc on runs to the left *and* on runs to the right when looking at runs at least 14 yards away from the end zone and removing QB scrambles MIN runs to the outsides at the 5th highest rate in the league

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Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Small because I'll have another related play on Action Island

Full write up in my TNF betting preview

Analysis on Tiktok/Twitter

Kimani Vidal ⬆️ 2.5 Receptions (-122 @ FanDuel)(LAC) Collab w/ @SC_FFB 🤝 4+ targets and 3+ receptions in both games as the starter, averaging 3.5 grabs on 4.5 targets, while running a route on 62.9% of Justin Herbert's dropbacks and seeing a 9.3% target share in Weeks 6-7. Hassan Haskins is out, maintaining his role as the RB2 without Omarian Hampton (IR), playing on 31.2% of the Chargers' offensive snaps and running a route on 34% of the team's dropbacks in Week 6-7, seeing three targets (3.1% target share) over the last two games. The Vikings allow 5.5 targets and 4.2 receptions per game to opposing backfields. This looks like a good spot for Vidal in a pass heavy offense!

Accidentally only put 0.5U

There is a value opportunity on Jordan Mason's receptions prop. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 1.05 receptions, while sportsbooks imply 2.11. The model believes there is a 70% chance he records fewer than 1.5 receptions, so there is some value on the under at +128. (This play is good down to at least -153.) (NOTE: If Aaron Jones doesn't play, this loses significant value. I'm expecting Jones to play, though.) Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

Boosted johnson

#MaoDong

BANGER.

LAC this season has allowed: -2nd Most QB Rush Attempts -3rd Most QB Rush Yards -3rd Highest QB Scramble Rate 6 of 7 QBs they have faced went over their Rush Attempts line: ✅ Danny Dimes 5 ❌ Tua Tagovailoa 1 ✅ Jayden Daniels 8 ✅ Jaxson Dart 10 ✅ Bo Nix 8 ✅ Geno Smith 5 ✅ Patrick Mahomes 6 Wentz has gone over his line in each of the last 2 games & has scrambled 2, 2, 3, 2 times in his 4 starts. I think Minnesota could win this game too, so kneeldowns could work in our favor here.

DK: Jettas draws a nice matchup vs a Chargers team who’s struggling defensively. Currently running zone at a top 2 rate, specifically heavily cov 3/4 which Jettas has been destroying with his deep concepts He’s seen 10+ targets in 3 straight matchups which is simply elite volume & vs general zone he’s recorded a 3.67 Y/RR which is the 2nd highest in all of football behind Puka WRs have put up big number against LAC recently: Sutton 118, Pierce 98, Samuel 96, and Waddle 95. Jettas up next.

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Projecting closer to +300

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Projecting closer to +120

Gotta sprinkle if we like one

@wheatonbrando Week 8 Lookahead https://myaction.app/PVMBmHmHCXb

WEEK 8 LOOKAHEAD  Usually we take favorites on the Lookahead before the line gets even longer, but this is all about the key number. What happens with these teams this weekend? Both teams play in coin-flippy games, but it's easy to see this shifting towards the Vikings. The Chargers are super banged up, especially on the offensive line, and Jonathan Taylor could be in for a big game Sunday. Los Angeles is not far from a three-game losing streak right now, so another poor showing could really drop public perception. The Vikings, meanwhile, are coming off the bye and getting healthier, and a home win against the Eagles would really boost their status. Minnesota's defense looks like the best unit on the field, particularly the pass defense. The Chargers are missing their top two RBs and leaning very pass-heavy, and those offensive line injuries could be a big problem against this attacking Vikings defensive front. There's not much home-field advantage for the Chargers these days either, if any. But in the end, this is all about the number. Getting the +3.5 is huge here. The Chargers already have wins this season by two and three points. That's a Minnesota cover with this spread. The Vikings also have a three-point loss already, another scenario where the Vikings cover +3.5. Three is still by far the most important key number in the NFL, and I don't expect this to be available after Sunday, so I'm grabbing the hook on the right side of the key number while it's there at FanDuel.