Chiefs vs. Jaguars Odds & Betting Predictions - October 7, 2025

Have to tail @ChrisRaybon

Patrick Mahomes o35.5 Passing Attempts (-120 @ Fanatics)(KC) I'm ok with 36.5 too, but really like 35.5 if you can find it. It's only there on a few books. Mahomes has cleared this mark in 3 of his last 4: 39, 29, 37 and 37. In one game against JAX last season he finished with 41 passing attempts. I like this for a few reasons. First off, KC can't run the ball right now and face a really difficult run defense in JAX. Jacksonville is allowing the 2nd fewest running back rushing yards per game this season (63.8). They are also allowing the 8th lowest yards per carry (3.89). Meanwhile, KC ranks just 21st in rushing yards per game this season (110.5). The rushing leader on the team? Yup... Patrick Mahomes! This creates more of a pass funnel for opposing teams. Let's look at the QB's they have faced so far and their pass attempts: Bryce Young: 35 Burrow/Browning: 45 C.J. Stroud: 38 Mac Jones: 38 All 4 QB's have throw for 35+ attempts on this Jags defense this season. KC has also opted for a shorter passing game attack so far this season with Mahomes holding an aDOT of just 8.6. Obviously, a shorter passing game favors more attempts. Now he gets his primary receiver back in Worthy who should be a go to option out of the gate tonight. Finally, I think this game stays competitive. If that's the case, KC will likely have to throw to be effective and extend drives. To add a cherry on top, here are Mahomes passing attempts in his last four Monday night games (last 2 seasons): 44, 39, 44 and 43. This sets up for a really nice play!

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NoVig

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THE BLITZ is forecasting 1.06 receptions for Brashard Smith compared to 1.99 receptions implied by sportsbooks, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 69% of the time, resulting in a 49% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $48.74. (This play is good down to at least -125.) Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

Call me crazy

Playing on ProphetX Juju led all KC pass catchers in snap% last week (78%) & in routes run (35) despite Worthy being back and saw 6 targets. He’s caught 4+ balls in 3/4 games this season and continues to be on the field a ton. He’s avg a 5.2 ADOT as well so most of his targets are high% catch rate. JAC has allowed: 3rd most pass attempts 8th most WR receptions/game 10th most completions They’ve also has been great against the run thus far and KC’s run game has been one of the worst so I wouldn’t be surprised to see KC lean on their pass game in this matchup.

Dog poo smoothie

Yeah I’m a gay douche for this one

Royal

MNF ETN escalator from TAN pod: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/chiefs-vs-jaguars-picks-props-odds-predictions-monday-night-football-oct-6-qs

Our model has the Jaguars winning outright 24.94 - 21.77. However, we’re keeping this to just a 1-unit play, as I still don’t fully trust this team. Their defense leads the league in takeaways, which has created some unsustainable variance. Tonight serves as a prove it type of game.

Had a decent weekend. Don’t need 2 units on the Jags, I’ll buy back 1 unit on KC. Official play is Jax +3.5 though.

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker. Can get it on Sleeper for u30.5 if you play there.

Pacheco has cleared this in back-to-back games but I think this is a good time to sell high on him in this spot. Pacheco has faced stacked boxes on only 6% of his rush attempts, which is the lowest rate in the league. It makes sense as defenses are much more worried about Mahomes than a Pacheco run play. Despite the favorable run conditions he is averaging just 4.0 yards per carry (-0.5 below expected per NextGenStats). Not only do the Jaguars have a solid run defense (ranked 9th in DVOA) but they seem perfectly equipped to slow down Pacheco here because they have stacked the box at a league-low rate of 7%. They have gotten good run support from all three levels of the defense with LB Foyesade Oluokun leading a LB group that has 17 run stops. Safety Eric Murray (former Texan) has been a difference maker as well, posting 4 stops with an average depth of tackle at 5.8 yards downfield, which has been key in limiting explosive runs. CB Tyson Campbell has also been excellent in run support with 3 stops himself and could be key with Pacheco bouncing outside more than usual this year. Therefore, the Jaguars have not needed to stack the box since the entire unit has been solid in run support, which should make it even tougher for Pacheco to get going. Rookie Brashard Smith is starting to get more involved in the offense, which has pushed Kareem Hunt to be even more involved on early downs (along with Smith) at the expense of Pacheco. The one area Pacheco was still able to lead the team in usage was in the two-minute offense, which is not ideal in terms of rushing production. I also think the Jaguars +3.5 is getting most of the sharp action tonight and the Chiefs probably have a higher chance of facing a trailing game script than the prop market is implying. Plus, the Jaguars run game has been super efficient this year and has allowed them to dominate time of possession, which could eat into KC’s overall volume. All of this leads me to have Pacheco’s median closer to 25 yards with around a 61% chance to stay under 29.5.

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/jslDWc2rfXb

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/jslDWc2rfXb

Has had 89-plus in 3 of 4 games this year, averaging 106.5. Chiefs' defense has sneakily struggled against the run, ranking dead last in schedule-adjusted early-down rush EPA and in EPA per carry allowed to running backs.

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Longest odds + second chance at MGM

Lotto Play for Monday so I can have something fun to root for on the Lines at Lunch Stream

Found 3.5 at even money on Bettor Edge. Adding to the position.

Jags turnover rate unsustainable but Chiefs have also been lucky on that front (plus 4th downs especially for a non sneak team). Jags remain undervalued due to schematic upgrades on O/D + great special teams. They do have 2 potential injuries worth watching on D with Murray and Walker but give me the cheap 3 with King Coen.