Jaguars vs. Bengals Odds & Betting Predictions - September 14, 2025

Browning is him

#Tailing @nick_giffen

Highest total of the week in what should be a shootout. JAX are 3.5 underdogs and could be in a very pass-friendly gamescript trying to chase points against this Bengals offense. W1 Hunter had 6 catches on a team-high 8 targets. Expecting BTJ to see a slight increase in targets but don't think Hunter really see's a dip given the gamescript/opponent. 6/8 of Hunter's targets were 10 yard passes or less and he AVG a 7.3 ADOT = great for receptions. Hunter saw a 0.32 TPRR W1 on 25 routes in what was a very run-friendly script + an extended weather delay. Hunter had a 76.0% slot rate and led JAX in slot snaps - CIN allowed 16 slot targets W1 for 12 REC. 2024 CIN was #20 in slot target % but that was under a different DC and their nickel from LS is no longer with the team. Going back and watching all off Hunter's targets, it's clear Coen intends to have Hunter heavily involved. He saw 3 designed screens for easy catches for a 37.5% design% (3/8 TRG = designed plays).

We played a tight end against the Bengals in Week 1, and we got the right read but had the wrong guy. David Njoku disappointed, but rookie Harold Fannin caught seven balls for 63 yards and nine targets. Brenton Strange is the right guy this time around. He played 79% of the snaps in Week 1 for Jacksonville, way up from his usual snap count in Denver, and it's pretty clear he's the Evan Engram replacement going forward. Strange caught all four of his targets for 59 yards. He has at least 59 yards in half his games with at least a 50% snap count for his career and four or more targets in 78% of them. The Bengals have been abysmal against tight ends. They allowed the most opposing TE points in the league last season in fantasy football, a line of 111 catches for over 1,100 yards and 10 scores. That included at least 55 yards to an opposing tight end 10 times — and another last week with Fannin. This should be a high scoring game with both defenses subpar, so we should get plenty of chances for yards. Play Strange to go over 31.5 yards (-110, BetMGM), and place a portion of your bet on 50+ yards at +270 (bet365). If you like the Henry and Strange lines, you can play them together for a little No Name TE parlay: +264 for the over 31.5s and +1070 if they both hit 50+ yards at bet365.

One of my favorite angles each year is targeting rookie WRs in specific markets before public perception fully catches up. I don’t always nail the timing.. variance happens (for example, I hit Brian Thomas Jr.’s long reception over 18.5 in Week 1 and it came up short, but that number was too good to last). Sometimes I time it just right, like Justin Jefferson over 21.5 receiving yards or CeeDee Lamb over 3.5 receptions.. props that look silly now. Hunter’s reception line at 4.5 isn’t far off that mold, and I want to buy in early. He went 6/33/0 in his debut, but the arrow only points up. People may overlook his WR ceiling because he also plays CB, but he gives me early-career Odell Beckham Jr. vibes, and he has the potential to be above average after the catch. Liam Coen wasted no time featuring him the most optimal way.. Hunter lined up in the slot and was schemed touches the way Coen used Chris Godwin or Cooper Kupp in past offenses. He caught three screen passes in Week 1, a predictive marker for a solid reception floor. In fact, all six of his catches came on throws within 10 air yards, which means any downfield grabs will just be a bonus. Hunter led the team with a 26% target rate (BTJ was 23%, Hunter will start opening up downfield plays for him) and still caught six passes in a game Jacksonville controlled easily, holding the lead for 46 minutes (fifth-highest rate of the week, even longer when you include the rain delay!). Now he draws the Bengals in a game script that should force the Jaguars to pass much more often. I project Hunter at about 5.1 receptions with a 58% chance to clear 4.5, and we’re getting plus odds to back it.

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Have the Bengals favored by 6.1 Think this is a good buy-low spot after they faced a divisional rival with a good defense on the road in high winds last week.