Browns vs. Commanders Odds & Betting Predictions - October 6, 2024

Browns at Commanders

5:00 pm • FOX

Cleveland Browns

2-7

13 - 34

Washington Commanders

7-4

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Browns 2-7	-3	+3-115	o43.5-111	+130
Commanders 7-4	u43.5	-3-105	u43.5-109	-150

Sunday 5:00 p.m.

October 06, 2024

Northwest StadiumLandover

CLE +155 (Live)

Bobbyfades

CLE +130

Late Add

E.Moore First Touchdown Scorer Yes+2700

0.1u

WAS -3-105

WAS -3-120

CLE +142

🔑 Browns ML +142 (FanDuel) 2u This is such a let down spot for the commanders. Everyone in the world is all over them, the books don’t lose like that. The Browns offense has looked better and the commanders D is still bad. Love the value here

J.Ford o43.5 Rush Yds-115

Under 44-110

0.55u

CLE +3-110

0.55u

A.Cooper Anytime TD Scorer Yes+200

The Extra Point - @charliedisturco

WAS -2.5-125

0.8u

A.Cooper Anytime TD Scorer Yes+200

0.15u

via the TD show

A.Ekeler o21.5 Rush Yds-120

1.5u

J.Ford First Touchdown Scorer Yes+900

0.5u

WAS -3-110

0.91u

WAS -1 (1H)-110

0.55u

CLE +3-110

As soon as I heard the comparison between Daniels and Lamar Jackson I raced to fade the Commanders by taking Browns +3. Just like in stocks, you sell high when the graph peaks, or in this case the team’s hype peaks

D.Foreman u20.5 Rush Yds-110

@ChrisRaybon

Under 44-110

@The_Oddsmaker

Under 44-110

1.1u

CLE +138

2.17u

D.Foreman u22.5 Rush Yds-110

CLE +3-110

CLE +3.5-126

$1260.00

J.Ford Anytime TD Scorer Yes+140

1.5u

CLE +138

#ProSystem Road dog off away loss Overall: 87-83-1,51% (ROI:33%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%) Fade road favs that were just home dogs Overall: 89-101-1,47% (ROI:21%) Season:3-1-0,75% (ROI:66%)

CLE +3-115

#ProSystem Bad ATS vs Good ATS Overall: 117-57-6,67% (ROI:30%) Season:0-1-0,0% (ROI:-100%) Fade Road Dog to Home Favorite Overall: 216-153-16,59% (ROI:13%) Season:4-1-0,80% (ROI:54%)

J.Ford o43.5 Rush Yds-110

E.Moore o0.5 Rush Yds+1100

0.5u

All Free analysis & VIP Picks can be found in the MoneylineSharps Discord. Link: https://discord.gg/zkcR4EnvbW

D.Watson o212.5 Pass Yds-113

1.13u

A.Cooper o51.5 Rec Yds-110

Z.Ertz u14.5 Longest Reception-119

Under in 3/4, but has admittedly toyed with this line with 12, 12, and 13 on the unders. However, this is a gross matchup for him. The Browns run man coverage at the sixth highest rate, and Ertz quite literally has not been targeted vs man this season, out of Daniels’ 22 targets. ADOT running at 7.8 yards, and Delpit is such a tough individual matchup for him.

Under 43.5-110

Lemme go vomit and get back to you

J.Daniels o9.5 Rush Att+106

1.06u

Daniels is over this line in 3 of 4 games – 2 of 4 if you exclude kneels. He’s at 17 designed rush attempts (excl kneels) in four games, and 23 scrambles. Against a tough Cleveland front, I do expect him to keep the ball on option plays, as I expect Brian Robinson to struggle a bit more moving the ball up the middle. And while Daniels has looked tremendous through the air the last three games, those have all come against bottom tier pass defenses. The Browns will be the best defense he’s faced in his young career, and should be able to garner pressure. The Browns are blitzing at the sixth highest rate, and Daniels scrambles on 19% of his dropbacks when blitzed. Overall, I expect Daniels to be more on the move in this one. I have him closer to 11.

J.Daniels o0.5 Int-105

0.5u

Weekly QB INT Picks. Article coming shortly.

J.Daniels o9.5 Rush Att+110

1.1u

MGM

CLE +3.5-115

1.15u

Stuckey 3

T.McLaurin o4.5 Recs+110

CLE +3.5-115

Pickem

A.Cooper o49.5 Rec Yds-110

0.91u

Bet365

CLE +3+100

J.Daniels u213.5 Pass Yds-110

1.1u

J.Daniels o15.5 Longest Rush-115

Love targeting a mobile QB vs a heavy man coverage team like the Browns. Running lanes open up with defenders having their backs turned deep down the field. Browns have been bad, but have still have able to still generate pressure a decent amount. The Browns blitz at the at the 7th highest rate which should also flush Daniels out. With Myles Garrett lurking there’s a good chance he’ll be forced to run to keep the play/drive alive. Trevor Lawrence recorded a 33 yarder vs the Browns this year. Other than that, they’ve played Dak/Minshew who are not mobile and Daniel Jones where the Giants were chewing clock. 8+ rushes every week, just needs to break one

WAS u23.5 Team Total-108

1.08u

CLE +3.5-115

0.4u

Grabbing the 3.5 but smaller due to major injury watch for Browns

WAS -3-120

0.83u

Featured Insight
The Browns have attempted 128 passes from the shotgun this season -- 2nd-most in NFL; the Commanders have allowed 7.1 yards per dropback against the shotgun this season -- 6th-worst in NFL.

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Featured Insight
The Commanders have pressured opposing QBs on 47% of pass attempts on play action passes this season -- 3rd-best in NFL; Browns QBs have a 83.0 passer rating on play action passes this season -- 8th-worst in NFL.

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NFL Public Betting

Commanders are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Commanders are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Commanders are 3-2 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Commanders' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Commanders' 5 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Commanders	7-3-1	4-1	3-2-1	5-1	2-2-1
Browns	3-6	1-4	2-2	0-3	3-3

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Commanders	7-4	2-3	5-1	3-3	4-1
Browns	3-6	2-3	1-3	1-2	2-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Commanders	7-4	N/A	N/A	5-1	2-3
Browns	2-7	N/A	N/A	0-3	2-4

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 29th	@ARI	W 42-14	+3.5 W	O 49	WAS +155
Sep 24th	@CIN	W 38-33	+7.5 W	O 46	WAS +275
Sep 15th	NYG	W 21-18	-1.5 W	U 43	WAS -123
Sep 8th	@TB	L 20-37	+4 L	O 42.5	TB +170
Aug 26th	NE	W 20-10	+6.5 W	U 36.5	WAS +240

Jordan Hicks
LB
Hicks is out with elbow
Out

Khaleke Hudson
OLB
Hudson is questionable with ankle
Questionable
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
LB
Owusu-Koramoah is out with neck
Out

Tyler Ott
LS
Ott is questionable with illness
Questionable
Marshon Lattimore
CB
Lattimore is out with hamstring
Out
Austin Seibert
K
Seibert is out with hip
Out
Colson Yankoff
TE
Yankoff is out with hamstring
Out

See more NFL Injuries

Browns

Total

Commanders

212

Total Yards

434

Total Plays

3.6

Yards Per Play

6.7

Browns

Passing

Commanders

141

YDS

236

16/29

Comps/Atts

15/28

YPA

7.065

1/0

TDs/INTs

1/1

7/33

Sacks/Yards

3/17

Browns

Rushing

Commanders

104

Rush Yards

215

Attempts

4.522

YPC

6.324

TDs

Browns

Turnovers

Commanders

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Browns

Efficiency

Commanders

1/2 50%

Redzone

3/6 50%

1/13 0%

3rd Down

8/17 0%

2/3 0%

4th Down

2/2 0%

Browns

First Downs

Commanders

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Browns

Misc

Commanders

9/52

Penalties/Yards

5/31

28:42

Possession

31:18

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MatchupOverUnder
Browns 2-7	o20.5-107	u20.5-115
Commanders 7-4	o23.5-102	u23.5-120

Browns vs. Commanders Odds & Betting Predictions - October 6, 2024

Browns at Commanders

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