New England Patriots Odds

King of the End Zone

Have the full game spread closer to SEA -5, so pretty much in line with the market. Like getting the Pats at a key number for the 1H here at -120. Seattle winning the 1H by exactly 3 is probably the most likely outcome, so I wouldn’t recommend NE +2.5. Pats went a league-best 14-5-1 ATS in the 1H and typically get off to better starts than expected. Spillane trending toward playing helps and Emmanwori’s late-week ankle injury is a bit of an unknown, but if he’s less than 100% it could throw off Seattle’s game plan early enough to matter for the 1H market. Pats are sneaky at +3.5 for the 1H.

At DK under Super Bowl MVP tab and scroll down Given on @Stuckey2 's 1k Challenge

Smith-Njigba's receptions line of 6.5 is badly mispriced and worth a play, even juiced to -139 (DraftKings). It's probably a full reception too low since he has 8+ catches in 10-of-13 non-blowout games. The alternate line of 8+ catches is worth a play at +130 (Fanatics). But what if Smith-Njigba has an even bigger game? He's racked up 123+ receiving yards seven times this season and has seven games with exactly eight catches and a few others with nine or 10. You could play an alternate yardage line like 120 yards for +210, but is that really worth it? If he really does rack up eight catches for 120+ yards, we should be dreaming about a much bigger target: Super Bowl MVP. I already bet Smith-Njigba for Super Bowl MVP twice — once right before the playoffs started at +2800, then again at +1500 heading into the NFC Championship Game. And I'm ready to triple down. Like most NFL awards, quarterback is the default for Super Bowl MVP. The award has gone to a QB 34 times (58%), including 14 of the last 19 Super Bowls (74%). If the Patriots win, Drake Maye is rightfully a heavy favorite to win MVP. But could Smith-Njigba steal it from Darnold in a Seahawks win? Remember, Smith-Njigba is typically responsible for almost half of Darnold's production. What's more impressive — 260 yards and two scores as a passer, or 8/130 and a TD as a receiver? Take a look at the receivers who won Super Bowl MVP over the last couple decades: 2005 Deion Branch: 11 receptions, 143 yards 2009 Santonio Holmes: 9 receptions, 141 yards, 1 TD 2019 Julian Edelman: 10 receptions, 141 yards 2022 Cooper Kupp: 8 receptions, 92 yards, 2 TDs These aren't guys putting up huge touchdown numbers. These are workhorse receivers seeing the ball all game, catching 8-to-10 passes and moving the chains drive after drive, piling up big yardage along the way. The average line for those four Super Bowl MVPs is 9.5 catches for 129 yards, even though they also combined for under one touchdown a game. Isn't that line an exact bullseye for a typical big Smith-Njigba game? It's also worth mentioning that no running back has won Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis last century, and that these defenses rank top four in fewest touchdowns and fantasy points allowed to RBs. This is a passing game, and no one gets a bigger piece of the passing pie than Smith-Njigba. He is consensus +550 to win Super Bowl MVP, implied 15.4%. We know MVP will go to someone from the winning team, and Seattle moneyline is priced around -225, implied 69.2%. If you do the math, that means Smith-Njigba would need to win MVP in about 22% of all Seahawks wins for that bet to have value. If you go through the Seahawks' schedule this season game-by-game, Smith-Njigba would've won MVP at least three times, maybe four or five. That means he would've been MVP in at least 19% of Seahawks wins this season, and maybe 25 or 31%. Combine that with the matchup advantages and there's still value on Smith-Njigba to win MVP — but we can get even better bang for our buck. At FanDuel, you can bet on him to record 100+ receiving yards and win Super Bowl MVP (a prepared parlay under Super Bowl Game Specials) at +850. We should not be getting an extra three bucks on our +550 MVP ticket for just 100 receiving yards — that's almost Smith-Njigba's receiving line! He's had 90+ yards in 14-of-19 games (74%), and if he goes under that line, the odds of him winning MVP are perilously low. If he did still steal MVP, maybe it's by finding the end zone multiple times — you're welcome to nibble JSN to score 2+ TDs and win MVP at +2500 (FanDuel) to cover yourself, just in case. Either way, it's time to invest in Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Bet JSN to catch at least seven or eight passes on Sunday night, and bet him to top 100 yards and win Super Bowl MVP at +850.

There's reason to believe the Patriots may be particularly vulnerable to Smith-Njigba. For all the talk about New England's cornerbacks, would you believe the Patriots ranked dead last against opposing WR1s this season? It's true — but much like the rest of New England's schedule, the Pats just haven't been tested much. The best receiver they could've faced so far in the playoffs was Nico Collins, but he was sidelined with an injury. The best receiver they could've faced in the regular season, Ja'Marr Chase, was suspended. The best receiver the Patriots actually faced was the Falcons' Drake London, who caught nine passes (on 14 targets) for 118 yards and three touchdowns! New England had six games against a quality, clear WR1 this season, someone you'd treat that way in fantasy football. That opposing WR1 caught at least six passes for 84 yards in every one of those games, with an average of 7.3 receptions for 103.5 yards on 10.2 targets. The Patriots play the ninth-most man coverage in the league, and elite receivers are almost always good enough to beat even the best man coverage. Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold ranks third in EPA per play against man, far better than he is against zone, and Smith-Njigba absolutely destroys man coverage. He finished third in the NFL in yards versus man and posted an absurd 4.16 yards per route run against man, which was the best mark in the league. The Patriots' Christian Gonzalez is a great corner, but he can only do so much. Gonzalez did his part in that Atlanta game, but London still finished with a massive line because that's how coverages work these days. Seattle moves Smith-Njigba all over the field — out wide, in the slot, out of the backfield — and no corner in 2026 is shadowing that player on every assignment. Smith-Njigba is in line for another big day, and his league-leading yardage total is even more stunning considering the Seahawks are the league's run-heaviest team in a neutral script. Consider that Smith-Njigba was responsible for 44% of Darnold's passing yards this season and 40% of his passing touchdowns! That's a lot of work for just one receiver. Now he gets to do it all on the league's biggest stage. Smith-Njigba will be the fourth player since the 1980s to lead the league in receiving yards, then go on to make the Super Bowl. And wait til you see the numbers the previous three players put up in the Super Bowl: 1989 Jerry Rice: 7 catches, 148 yards, 3 TDs 1994 Jerry Rice: 10 catches, 149 yards, 3 TDs 2021 Cooper Kupp: 8 catches, 92 yards, 2 TDs Not bad, huh? It's a tiny sample, but that's an average of 8.2 catches for 130 yards, with eight scores in three games! Eight catches looks like a good target for Smith-Njigba. He had at least seven catches in 13-of-19 games this season (including the postseason), but that figure is a bit misleading. Four of those six unders came in games Seattle won by 21 or more points. That means Smith-Njigba had 7+ catches in 11-of-13 other games (85%). That also means Smith-Njigba's receptions line of 6.5 is badly mispriced and worth a play, even juiced to -139 (DraftKings). It's probably a full reception too low since he has 8+ catches in 10-of-13 non-blowout games. The alternate line of 8+ catches is worth a play at +130 (Fanatics).

There's reason to believe the Patriots may be particularly vulnerable to Smith-Njigba. For all the talk about New England's cornerbacks, would you believe the Patriots ranked dead last against opposing WR1s this season? It's true — but much like the rest of New England's schedule, the Pats just haven't been tested much. The best receiver they could've faced so far in the playoffs was Nico Collins, but he was sidelined with an injury. The best receiver they could've faced in the regular season, Ja'Marr Chase, was suspended. The best receiver the Patriots actually faced was the Falcons' Drake London, who caught nine passes (on 14 targets) for 118 yards and three touchdowns! New England had six games against a quality, clear WR1 this season, someone you'd treat that way in fantasy football. That opposing WR1 caught at least six passes for 84 yards in every one of those games, with an average of 7.3 receptions for 103.5 yards on 10.2 targets. The Patriots play the ninth-most man coverage in the league, and elite receivers are almost always good enough to beat even the best man coverage. Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold ranks third in EPA per play against man, far better than he is against zone, and Smith-Njigba absolutely destroys man coverage. He finished third in the NFL in yards versus man and posted an absurd 4.16 yards per route run against man, which was the best mark in the league. The Patriots' Christian Gonzalez is a great corner, but he can only do so much. Gonzalez did his part in that Atlanta game, but London still finished with a massive line because that's how coverages work these days. Seattle moves Smith-Njigba all over the field — out wide, in the slot, out of the backfield — and no corner in 2026 is shadowing that player on every assignment. Smith-Njigba is in line for another big day, and his league-leading yardage total is even more stunning considering the Seahawks are the league's run-heaviest team in a neutral script. Consider that Smith-Njigba was responsible for 44% of Darnold's passing yards this season and 40% of his passing touchdowns! That's a lot of work for just one receiver. Now he gets to do it all on the league's biggest stage. Smith-Njigba will be the fourth player since the 1980s to lead the league in receiving yards, then go on to make the Super Bowl. And wait til you see the numbers the previous three players put up in the Super Bowl: 1989 Jerry Rice: 7 catches, 148 yards, 3 TDs 1994 Jerry Rice: 10 catches, 149 yards, 3 TDs 2021 Cooper Kupp: 8 catches, 92 yards, 2 TDs Not bad, huh? It's a tiny sample, but that's an average of 8.2 catches for 130 yards, with eight scores in three games! Eight catches looks like a good target for Smith-Njigba. He had at least seven catches in 13-of-19 games this season (including the postseason), but that figure is a bit misleading. Four of those six unders came in games Seattle won by 21 or more points. That means Smith-Njigba had 7+ catches in 11-of-13 other games (85%). That also means Smith-Njigba's receptions line of 6.5 is badly mispriced and worth a play, even juiced to -139 (DraftKings). It's probably a full reception too low since he has 8+ catches in 10-of-13 non-blowout games. The alternate line of 8+ catches is worth a play at +130 (Fanatics).

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My fave Novelty TD Prop for SB60 under “Score Props” at Bet365

46 points please

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SB POD

Defenders can and do win Super Bowl MVP — and a lot more often than you'd think! We've seen 10 defensive players win MVP. Two of them won it as co-MVPs, but even so, that's nine defensive MVPs in 59 Super Bowls or 15.3%. That's more than once every seven Super Bowls! In fact, would you believe more defenders have won Super Bowl MVP than receivers or running backs? That fact might encourage you to sprinkle on one of the game's defensive stars as an unlikely MVP pick. Again, it can be wise to just keep things simple. There are 11 defensive starters on each team and a plethora of other defenders that will also see the field in relief. We can bet any defensive player to win Super Bowl MVP at +1500 at theScore. That's 6.3% implied, giving us over 2.4x value on the historical odds of a defensive MVP. Of course, we're greedy and want the exacta winner too, so let's sprinkle three long-shot names. And it doesn't necessarily need to be the best defenders on the field. Seattle fans, do you recall the Super Bowl MVP of your last title? Not many remember LB Malcolm Smith, who won it in 2014. Dexter Jackson and Larry Brown are other relatively anonymous defenders who made a big play when it mattered most and stole MVP. Christian Gonzalez is a lock-down corner for New England, and Leonard Williams is a force up the middle for Seattle, but those guys don't necessarily make splash plays. We're looking for big, game-changing plays — sacks, turnovers, even a touchdown. Let's take a stab at three long-shot defensive MVPs. Start with New England's Marcus Jones (+15000 at BetRivers). He's the third corner but that makes him more of a target, and that means opportunity. Jones has four interceptions this season and returned two of them for scores. He's also an electric punt returner and has two scores that way. Next up is Seattle's DeMarcus Lawrence (+15000 at BetMGM), who had six regular season sacks and added one in each of Seattle's playoff games so far, along with three forced fumbles. He's got a juicy matchup against rookie LT Will Campbell, who has struggled mightily in these playoffs. Lawrence has four career touchdowns, including a league-leading two off fumbles this season. Last, let's add Ernest Jones (+20000 at theScore). Three of the four defensive MVPs this century have been linebackers, right in the middle of all the action, and Jones led Seattle in both interceptions (five) and combined tackles (30 more than anyone else). He plays nearly every snap and should rack up tackles and opportunities, and he'll be in great position to jump a rushed Drake Maye checkdown. Defense wins championships. And in the Super Bowl, defense turns profits for bettors too. Place your bets and wait for the big play.

I always bet on a defensive touchdown in the Super Bowl. Year after year, regardless of the teams playing or any matchup on the board, this is a blind bet. The odds are just never priced correctly. This year, the bet feels even better. Seattle's defense has been one of the best in the NFL all season, aggressive from the jump and constantly forcing plays. But Seattle's offense has been sloppy, ranking second in the league in giveaways, and that could give New England's defense a chance for a big play too. The Patriots scored two defensive touchdowns in the regular season, then another in the playoffs — two of them by CB Marcus Jones, who moonlights as the current best punt returner in NFL history. Seattle had three defensive TDs, too. And while this isn't necessarily a special teams angle, it should be noted that Seattle had one of the best special teams units all season and added five special teams TDs as well, while the Patriots scored three special teams TDs themselves. So how do we bet it? Be careful, and pay attention to the details — and always shop around for long-shot lines like these. At FanDuel, we can bet on a Seattle Defense anytime touchdown at +550, which at first glance looks much better than what appears to be the same bet at DraftKings priced at +400. Ditto with New England at +850 and +500, respectively. But at FanDuel, we're betting only a defensive score. At DraftKings we're betting D/ST, which means we get special teams scores too. This isn't a special teams specific angle, but Seattle has scored five special teams TDs already this season and New England has three. We've already seen 13 special teams TDs in the Super Bowl, including eight the last three decades. We want those extra outs. If you want to just keep things simple and clean, you can bet on either team to score a defensive or special teams touchdown at +265 at Circa. That's an implied 27.4%, compared to the Super Bowl history of 36 D/ST touchdowns in 59 Super bowls, implying a 61% chance of a score. That's pretty clear and definite value — though you can bet No D/ST touchdown at -320 instead, if you think this is all a bunch of baloney. But we can bet even smarter. The defense has scored 23 touchdowns in Super Bowl history, and all but three of them came from the winning team. Makes sense, right? In a game between two of the league's best teams, with a game often priced closed to a coin flip, one weird bounce of an oblong ball and an unexpected free seven points have a huge change of swinging the game in either direction. It's no coincidence that the Chiefs won the Super Bowl with their defensive TD but lost to the Eagles when Philly pulled off the feat. The winning Super Bowl team has scored a defensive touchdown in a whopping 17-of-59 Super Bowls. That's over 29% of the time, more than once every four Super Bowls, and that's not even counting special teams! If you cut out the unlikely scenario of a defensive score in a losing effort, we can really zero in on value by placing two SGP bets: Seahawks D/ST anytime TD & Seahawks ML (+833, theScore) Patriots D/ST anytime TD & Patriots ML (+2703, theScore) And yes, we're playing both angles! We hit this exact bet last season with Cooper DeJean and Philly at +850! These defensive scores are unpredictable and can swing the game. Even if you like the favored Seahawks, don't you like them a whole lot less if you know Sam Darnold throws a pick-six? A surprise D/ST score is a great way for an underdog to steal the game. Playing both angles together gives us combined implied odds of +600, or about 14.3%, and that's a huge edge on Super Bowl history. But if a defensive player does score a touchdown … could he also win Super Bowl MVP?

I always bet on a defensive touchdown in the Super Bowl. Year after year, regardless of the teams playing or any matchup on the board, this is a blind bet. The odds are just never priced correctly. This year, the bet feels even better. Seattle's defense has been one of the best in the NFL all season, aggressive from the jump and constantly forcing plays. But Seattle's offense has been sloppy, ranking second in the league in giveaways, and that could give New England's defense a chance for a big play too. The Patriots scored two defensive touchdowns in the regular season, then another in the playoffs — two of them by CB Marcus Jones, who moonlights as the current best punt returner in NFL history. Seattle had three defensive TDs, too. And while this isn't necessarily a special teams angle, it should be noted that Seattle had one of the best special teams units all season and added five special teams TDs as well, while the Patriots scored three special teams TDs themselves. So how do we bet it? Be careful, and pay attention to the details — and always shop around for long-shot lines like these. At FanDuel, we can bet on a Seattle Defense anytime touchdown at +550, which at first glance looks much better than what appears to be the same bet at DraftKings priced at +400. Ditto with New England at +850 and +500, respectively. But at FanDuel, we're betting only a defensive score. At DraftKings we're betting D/ST, which means we get special teams scores too. This isn't a special teams specific angle, but Seattle has scored five special teams TDs already this season and New England has three. We've already seen 13 special teams TDs in the Super Bowl, including eight the last three decades. We want those extra outs. If you want to just keep things simple and clean, you can bet on either team to score a defensive or special teams touchdown at +265 at Circa. That's an implied 27.4%, compared to the Super Bowl history of 36 D/ST touchdowns in 59 Super bowls, implying a 61% chance of a score. That's pretty clear and definite value — though you can bet No D/ST touchdown at -320 instead, if you think this is all a bunch of baloney. But we can bet even smarter. The defense has scored 23 touchdowns in Super Bowl history, and all but three of them came from the winning team. Makes sense, right? In a game between two of the league's best teams, with a game often priced closed to a coin flip, one weird bounce of an oblong ball and an unexpected free seven points have a huge change of swinging the game in either direction. It's no coincidence that the Chiefs won the Super Bowl with their defensive TD but lost to the Eagles when Philly pulled off the feat. The winning Super Bowl team has scored a defensive touchdown in a whopping 17-of-59 Super Bowls. That's over 29% of the time, more than once every four Super Bowls, and that's not even counting special teams! If you cut out the unlikely scenario of a defensive score in a losing effort, we can really zero in on value by placing two SGP bets: Seahawks D/ST anytime TD & Seahawks ML (+833, theScore) Patriots D/ST anytime TD & Patriots ML (+2703, theScore) And yes, we're playing both angles! We hit this exact bet last season with Cooper DeJean and Philly at +850! These defensive scores are unpredictable and can swing the game. Even if you like the favored Seahawks, don't you like them a whole lot less if you know Sam Darnold throws a pick-six? A surprise D/ST score is a great way for an underdog to steal the game. Playing both angles together gives us combined implied odds of +600, or about 14.3%, and that's a huge edge on Super Bowl history. But if a defensive player does score a touchdown … could he also win Super Bowl MVP?

I always bet on a defensive touchdown in the Super Bowl. Year after year, regardless of the teams playing or any matchup on the board, this is a blind bet. The odds are just never priced correctly. This year, the bet feels even better. Seattle's defense has been one of the best in the NFL all season, aggressive from the jump and constantly forcing plays. But Seattle's offense has been sloppy, ranking second in the league in giveaways, and that could give New England's defense a chance for a big play too. The Patriots scored two defensive touchdowns in the regular season, then another in the playoffs — two of them by CB Marcus Jones, who moonlights as the current best punt returner in NFL history. Seattle had three defensive TDs, too. And while this isn't necessarily a special teams angle, it should be noted that Seattle had one of the best special teams units all season and added five special teams TDs as well, while the Patriots scored three special teams TDs themselves. So how do we bet it? Be careful, and pay attention to the details — and always shop around for long-shot lines like these. At FanDuel, we can bet on a Seattle Defense anytime touchdown at +550, which at first glance looks much better than what appears to be the same bet at DraftKings priced at +400. Ditto with New England at +850 and +500, respectively. But at FanDuel, we're betting only a defensive score. At DraftKings we're betting D/ST, which means we get special teams scores too. This isn't a special teams specific angle, but Seattle has scored five special teams TDs already this season and New England has three. We've already seen 13 special teams TDs in the Super Bowl, including eight the last three decades. We want those extra outs. If you want to just keep things simple and clean, you can bet on either team to score a defensive or special teams touchdown at +265 at Circa. That's an implied 27.4%, compared to the Super Bowl history of 36 D/ST touchdowns in 59 Super bowls, implying a 61% chance of a score. That's pretty clear and definite value — though you can bet No D/ST touchdown at -320 instead, if you think this is all a bunch of baloney. But we can bet even smarter. The defense has scored 23 touchdowns in Super Bowl history, and all but three of them came from the winning team. Makes sense, right? In a game between two of the league's best teams, with a game often priced closed to a coin flip, one weird bounce of an oblong ball and an unexpected free seven points have a huge change of swinging the game in either direction. It's no coincidence that the Chiefs won the Super Bowl with their defensive TD but lost to the Eagles when Philly pulled off the feat. The winning Super Bowl team has scored a defensive touchdown in a whopping 17-of-59 Super Bowls. That's over 29% of the time, more than once every four Super Bowls, and that's not even counting special teams! If you cut out the unlikely scenario of a defensive score in a losing effort, we can really zero in on value by placing two SGP bets: Seahawks D/ST anytime TD & Seahawks ML (+833, theScore) Patriots D/ST anytime TD & Patriots ML (+2703, theScore) And yes, we're playing both angles! We hit this exact bet last season with Cooper DeJean and Philly at +850! These defensive scores are unpredictable and can swing the game. Even if you like the favored Seahawks, don't you like them a whole lot less if you know Sam Darnold throws a pick-six? A surprise D/ST score is a great way for an underdog to steal the game. Playing both angles together gives us combined implied odds of +600, or about 14.3%, and that's a huge edge on Super Bowl history. But if a defensive player does score a touchdown … could he also win Super Bowl MVP?

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Boost

If SEA wins and everyone lands around median outcome, JSN wins (possibly even w/o TD if game is low-scoring enough). Prop-implied stat lines: JSN 7 rec, 93 yd, 1 TD Darnold 20-29, 228 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT JSN projects to account for ~40% of Darnold’s pass yardage.

NE D 1.2% rush TD rate in 15g w/ DT Milton Williams (4.7% w/o), including 2 TD on 262 RB carries (0.8%).

NE D 80.6 rush YPG in 15g w/ Milton Williams. NE D 87 or less rush yd in 11-of-15g (73%) w/ Williams, 111+ in 5-of-5g w/o.

#SundaySixPack 6.6 car, 38.9 rush yd (5.9 YPC) w/ 41+ in 4-of-7g post-bye vs. 6.2-24.5 (3.9) w/ 31 or less in 10-of-13g pre-bye. SEA D 6.5% scramble rate allowed 6th-highest. Maye 10.4% scramble rate with rookie LT Will Campbell + rookie LG Jared Wilson both active vs. 8.7% when one/both miss.

#SundaySixPack NE D 3.2 YPC, 52.8 yd/g to RB in 15g with Milton Williams. Walker 19-62 last week vs LAR D allowing 4.1 YPC, 87.1 YPG to RB.

Elliss has only cleared this number in 5 of 18 games this season (28%), so on the surface this line already looks too high. My initial thought was that Robert Spillane’s ankle injury could justify it, since a Spillane absence might boost Elliss’ role. After digging in, that assumption turned out to be wrong. When Spillane has missed time this season, the Patriots have had Jack Gibbens wear the green dot and take over Spillane’s role, with Jahlani Tavai also seeing an uptick in playing time. Elliss’ role has remained essentially unchanged whether Spillane is active or not, so Spillane’s status for the Super Bowl doesn’t meaningfully impact Elliss’ projection. Seattle also sets up as a tougher matchup for Elliss to rack up tackles. He’s made a tackle on 20.6% of opponent run plays this season, but that rate is strongly correlated with how often teams run inside. The more inside runs, the higher his tackle rate. The Seahawks already rank 5th lowest in inside run rate, and with Zach Charbonnet done for the season and Kenneth Walker handling most of the workload, I’m projecting Seattle to run inside on just 35% of their attempts. That would rank 3rd lowest league wide, as Walker only runs inside on 33% of his carries, the 4th lowest rate among 49 qualified RBs. Charbonnet was much closer to league average at 49.5%. As a result, I have Elliss projected for roughly 3 run tackles and around 2.5 tackles on completed passes. His playing time should sit in the 65–70% range regardless of Spillane’s status, which reinforces the idea that this number is simply too high, likely due to the market overvaluing Spillane’s injury. I’m projecting Elliss closer to 5.8 tackles with around a 62% chance he stays under 6.5. Best price is currently the -118 at betMGM, but still in play at DK/FD/every other book offering tackle props. PrizePicks is offering it as well and would pair it with Leonard Williams Over 3.5 there (my other official tackle prop).

#Tailing @nick_giffen

As given on prop show

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*MY SPECIALTY BET* As given on Prop show

As given on prop show

Like this look from @The_Oddsmaker

3 or less in 12-of-18g (66.7%). NE D 4.9 sched-adj Tar/g to WR2s T-4th-fewest.

1.8 rec, 29.6 yd, 10+ rec yd in 12-of-16g (75%) since Oct after 5 rec, 13 yards total (3.3/g) in 4g in Sep. 10.0% TarMS tied/trailing vs 8.4% leading.

TD in 10-of-19 (52.6%). NE D 22 pass TD (85%), 4 rush TD (15%) in 15g w/ Milton Williams. 70% of rec TD allowed by NE have gone to WRs.

Gave out on live show (live now!). Also love attacking alt overs for this market

Gave out on live show (live now!)

Seahawks 💣 💣

Propapalooza

Propapalooza

Propapalooza

Propapalooza

Gave out on live show. Only has one rush att in the 3Q all season (was an aborted snap that went for 0 yards). Makes sense as the offense will be fairly scripted coming out of half and most of his scrambles come in the 2nd and 4th Q. AJ Barner handling the QB sneak/tush push play limits his upside here. Quickslip link: https://bit.ly/KOERNERSAM3QRUSH

Has been TE2 in every game active and bet voids if inactive. 1+ rec in 9-of-13 (69%) active.

INT in all 3 losses and 9-of-13g (69%) w/ 24+ pass attempts. SEA D INT in 12-of-19g (63%), 2.9% INT% (8th), 4.2% TO-worthy (6th).

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker & @ChrisRaybon

On this with @ChrisRaybon

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Gave out on live show

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker after I found a 53.5 at Bet365.

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Gave out on live prop show. Live now!

I think New England is being underestimated here, I firmly believe that if this game were in the regular season, and these 2 were playing a neutral site in Brazil or something, the line would be sliced in half. But because of recency bias, Drake Maye shoulder paranoia, and the market siding with Seattle (what feels like exclusively) we are getting value on NE. I think the best advice you can give to anyone is to bet the SB like its any other game. and if this were any other game throughout the season, we’d be betting NE + the 5, no doubt in my mind.

@The_Oddsmaker Prop-A-Palooza https://myaction.app/xPQAd6TQk0b

Gave out of Prop-a-Palooza pod (now up!). Proj closer to -125

Already got em for ATD at +410, may as well 🪜 and let the young man rumble!