Vikings vs. Bears Odds & Betting Predictions - November 24, 2024

Prob: -3.5

Read full writeup on X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Minnesota's strong record and efficient Sam Darnold face a tough test against Chicago’s home-field edge and rookie Caleb Williams’ dual-threat ability. The Bears’ struggles mask their competitiveness, with DJ Moore as a key weapon. Williams’ mobility counters Minnesota’s pass rush, while Chicago’s defense can pressure Darnold. Tight divisional matchups and urgency favor taking the points with Chicago.

ProphetX Line 🔑 Bears ML +152 (ProphetX) 2u We are following the money here. Big money and sharp money on in Chicago. They are at home and this feels like a perfect spot for them to upset the Vikings. I’m still not sold on Darnold, they have not looked dominant by any means for about a month. Give me this value all day As usual, ProphetX has the best line by far. Worth a look if you want to max your value! https://www.prophetx.co/register?refer=SirLockselot&currency=point

@SimonHunterNFL

Breakdown: Under the new offensive approach led by OC Thomas Brown, the Bears are clearly prioritizing a quick passing game to protect rookie QB Caleb Williams. The changes were evident last week, as they drastically shifted their passing philosophy to a low aDOT (average depth of target) approach, allowing Caleb to operate efficiently while limiting mistakes. **Quarterback Impact:** On the season, Caleb has a 8.3 aDOT and a 61.8% completion rate. However, under Brown's system last week, these metrics changed to a 6.7 aDOT and a 74.2% completion rate, with no turnover-worthy throws. The plan to use quick, rhythm-based throws worked exceptionally well, and there's every reason to expect a similar approach against Minnesota. **D.J. Moore’s Role:** Moore thrived in the revamped scheme last week, even with a minimal 0.9 aDOT. He posted a perfect 100% catch rate and made the most of his opportunities after the catch. While this was a stark departure from his season-long metrics (8.6 aDOT, 67.1% catch rate), it showcased his ability to adapt and excel in a YAC-heavy role. His short-area efficiency and ability to generate yardage on screens and slants make him the focal point of this type of game plan. **Matchup Analysis:** Minnesota's defense is the perfect target for this strategy. The Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the league (37.7%), which opens up opportunities for quick, hot-read throws to Moore. The Vikings' secondary has struggled to consistently contain opposing WR1s, particularly when the blitz fails to get home.

tailing sharp

This is my way of backing the Bears today

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Via @wheatonbrando as escalator that starts with the standard o4.5 rec myaction.app https://myaction.app/vTDh6MJvLOb

5+ car in 6-of-10. Saw uptick in designed runs under new OC. Scramble rate peaks vs blitz & MIN D #1 in blitz rate.

NFL Week 12 QB INT PICKS. Article coming shortly.

TAN pod / best bets propalooza escalator alllll the way to the top

TAN pod / best bets, 3-way ML

In the first game under new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, carries were split fairly evenly between Swift and Roschon Johnson. Swift's 14 attempts were his fewest since Week 3. Johnson's 10 carries tied a season high. He had totaled 11 carries in his 4 previous games. Both backs benefited from Chicago running a silly 68 plays in Week 11. We shouldn't anticipate that type of volume again. Minnesota has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game. They've held running backs to the 3rd-fewest yards per carry. Notably, the Vikings are tied for the 2nd-lowest explosive run rate (runs of 15+ yards). Swift is generally inefficient on the ground, but he excels at breaking off big plays. He ran for 71 yards on 14 carries in Week 11, and more than half of those yards came on one play. If he can't bust a long run, he's in trouble. Add in the competition from Johnson, and it's a tough spot.