Patriots vs. Saints Odds & Betting Predictions - October 12, 2025

Patriots at Saints

5:00 pm • CBS
25 - 19

Patriots at Saints Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Patriots
6-2
-3
-3.5-102
o45.5-118
-180
Saints
1-7
u43.5
+3.5-118
u45.5-105
+152
location pinSunday 5:00 p.m.
October 12, 2025
Caesars SuperdomeNew Orleans
Patriots vs. Saints Expert Picks
Capper Central
Capper Central
Last 30d: 78-70-0 (-6.1u)
NO +3.5-115
1.73u
Mjaybrod
Mjaybrod
Last 30d: 81-101-0 (-12.0u)
Over 46-110
1u
Ryan Sura
Ryan Sura
Last 30d: 89-101-1 (-8.7u)
NO +3.5-110
1.1u
Anders
Anders
Last 30d: 10-16-0 (-9.8u)
NO +3.5-110
1.1u
Vegas Refund
Vegas Refund
Last 30d: 35-34-1 (-2.5u)
NO +3.5-110
1.1u
Sandy Plashkes
Sandy Plashkes
Last 30d: 96-99-1 (+0.6u)
A.Kamara Anytime TD Scorer Yes+155
1u
NO +3.5-110
1.1u
Picks Office
Picks Office
Last 30d: 120-98-4 (+15.3u)
NO +3.5-110
1u
X: @PicksOffice
Chris Gimino
Chris Gimino
Last 30d: 27-43-1 (-17.0u)
A.Kamara u11.5 Rush Att-134
0.75u
Sean Koerner
Sean Koerner
Last 30d: 48-34-0 (+7.4u)
D.Vele o3.5 Rec Yds-118
0.59u
Also adding this since a few books are floating a yardage prop for him now. Wide range of outcomes, but have his median closer to 6.5. 36% chance he doesn’t catch a pass, 2% chance he catches a pass but stays under 3.5 (hopefully would be for a TD), and around a 60% chance he clears 3.5.
D.Vele Anytime TD Scorer Yes+1700
0.1u
One of the top edges in our ATD prop tool. Just an absolutely ridiculous price for a WR who is coming off a season high snap rate (he was traded right before the season started to NO) and looks to be eating into Cooks’ role with the Saints potentially in “evaluate for 2026 and beyond” mode. Bigger bodied WR who should be one of the top end zone targets for Rattler (already has a 3 yard TD this season). Projecting this closer to +800
Chris Gimino
Chris Gimino
Last 30d: 27-43-1 (-17.0u)
J.Johnson u38.5 Rec Yds-105
0.95u
Brandon Anderson
Brandon Anderson
Last 30d: 45-87-0 (+4.9u)
S.Diggs 80+ Receiving Yards Yes+229
0.5u
Many frustrated fantasy football owners wrote Stefon Diggs off after a slow start to the season, and it's easy to see why. In Weeks 1 to 3, Diggs was overlooked and forgotten. He averaged just 4.3 receptions for 37 yards on five targets a game and didn't look like a central part of New England's offense. But Diggs broke out with six catches for 101 yards against the Panthers in Week 4, then looked like the Diggs of old with 10 catches for 146 yards on 12 targets on Sunday night against the Bills. In Weeks 4 and 5, Diggs is almost double the targets and receptions he saw those first three games, and he's up 3.3x in receiving yards! This was always the expectation for Stefon Diggs, if you paid attention to the medical experts. Diggs is coming off a torn ACL, and players typically take around a month to ramp up from injury before hitting their usual production. That's almost exactly how long it took Diggs before these two big games, and he can probably still play more snaps going forward too. The Saints pass defense has been bad, especially so against opposing WR1s. New Orleans has already allowed games of 5/71, 5/89, 5/96, and 5/69 against opponent WR1s this season, five catches for each and an average of 81 yards a game on seven targets. Last year in 13 games against a true WR1, the Saints allowed an average of 6.6 receptions for 92 yards on 10 targets. It feels like books have yet to catch up on Diggs as a true WR1 for the Patriots, and this line of 57.5 (BetRivers) feels at least 10 yards too low. Since the start of last season, true WR1s against the Saints have at least five catches and at least 61 yards in 16 of 17 games, a 94% hit rate! I prefer yards to receptions with Diggs since he's also flashing his YAC ability to get the big play, with catches of 30+ yards each of the last two games. Let's play the escalator too. Saints opponent WR1s have had 79 receiving yards or more in 11-of-17 games since the start of last season, almost two-thirds, so we'll play 80+ yards at +229 (DraftKings). New Orleans has yet to allow a 100-yard game this season but Diggs has done that two games in a row and the Saints did allow that number to four WR1s last year, so nibble 100+ yards at +477 too (DraftKings).
S.Diggs o57.5 Rec Yds-112
1.25u
Many frustrated fantasy football owners wrote Stefon Diggs off after a slow start to the season, and it's easy to see why. In Weeks 1 to 3, Diggs was overlooked and forgotten. He averaged just 4.3 receptions for 37 yards on five targets a game and didn't look like a central part of New England's offense. But Diggs broke out with six catches for 101 yards against the Panthers in Week 4, then looked like the Diggs of old with 10 catches for 146 yards on 12 targets on Sunday night against the Bills. In Weeks 4 and 5, Diggs is almost double the targets and receptions he saw those first three games, and he's up 3.3x in receiving yards! This was always the expectation for Stefon Diggs, if you paid attention to the medical experts. Diggs is coming off a torn ACL, and players typically take around a month to ramp up from injury before hitting their usual production. That's almost exactly how long it took Diggs before these two big games, and he can probably still play more snaps going forward too. The Saints pass defense has been bad, especially so against opposing WR1s. New Orleans has already allowed games of 5/71, 5/89, 5/96, and 5/69 against opponent WR1s this season, five catches for each and an average of 81 yards a game on seven targets. Last year in 13 games against a true WR1, the Saints allowed an average of 6.6 receptions for 92 yards on 10 targets. It feels like books have yet to catch up on Diggs as a true WR1 for the Patriots, and this line of 57.5 (BetRivers) feels at least 10 yards too low. Since the start of last season, true WR1s against the Saints have at least five catches and at least 61 yards in 16 of 17 games, a 94% hit rate! I prefer yards to receptions with Diggs since he's also flashing his YAC ability to get the big play, with catches of 30+ yards each of the last two games. Let's play the escalator too. Saints opponent WR1s have had 79 receiving yards or more in 11-of-17 games since the start of last season, almost two-thirds, so we'll play 80+ yards at +229 (DraftKings). New Orleans has yet to allow a 100-yard game this season but Diggs has done that two games in a row and the Saints did allow that number to four WR1s last year, so nibble 100+ yards at +477 too (DraftKings).
S.Diggs 100+ Receiving Yards Yes+477
0.25u
Many frustrated fantasy football owners wrote Stefon Diggs off after a slow start to the season, and it's easy to see why. In Weeks 1 to 3, Diggs was overlooked and forgotten. He averaged just 4.3 receptions for 37 yards on five targets a game and didn't look like a central part of New England's offense. But Diggs broke out with six catches for 101 yards against the Panthers in Week 4, then looked like the Diggs of old with 10 catches for 146 yards on 12 targets on Sunday night against the Bills. In Weeks 4 and 5, Diggs is almost double the targets and receptions he saw those first three games, and he's up 3.3x in receiving yards! This was always the expectation for Stefon Diggs, if you paid attention to the medical experts. Diggs is coming off a torn ACL, and players typically take around a month to ramp up from injury before hitting their usual production. That's almost exactly how long it took Diggs before these two big games, and he can probably still play more snaps going forward too. The Saints pass defense has been bad, especially so against opposing WR1s. New Orleans has already allowed games of 5/71, 5/89, 5/96, and 5/69 against opponent WR1s this season, five catches for each and an average of 81 yards a game on seven targets. Last year in 13 games against a true WR1, the Saints allowed an average of 6.6 receptions for 92 yards on 10 targets. It feels like books have yet to catch up on Diggs as a true WR1 for the Patriots, and this line of 57.5 (BetRivers) feels at least 10 yards too low. Since the start of last season, true WR1s against the Saints have at least five catches and at least 61 yards in 16 of 17 games, a 94% hit rate! I prefer yards to receptions with Diggs since he's also flashing his YAC ability to get the big play, with catches of 30+ yards each of the last two games. Let's play the escalator too. Saints opponent WR1s have had 79 receiving yards or more in 11-of-17 games since the start of last season, almost two-thirds, so we'll play 80+ yards at +229 (DraftKings). New Orleans has yet to allow a 100-yard game this season but Diggs has done that two games in a row and the Saints did allow that number to four WR1s last year, so nibble 100+ yards at +477 too (DraftKings).
D.Maye o1.5 Pass TDs-105
0.95u
We enter Sunday off three straight upsets. Who would have believed even a month ago that the Giants, Jaguars, and Patriots would beat the Eagles, Chiefs, and Bills to start October? New England was awesome in its Sunday night game, a national debut for Drake Maye. Maye didn't find the end zone against Buffalo, but he played a great game. He consistently kept plays alive with his legs and got creative off-script, including the first play of the final winning drive when he refused to go down on a sack, bought time, and hit Stefon Diggs for a huge gain. Diggs is emerging as a true go-to WR1 for Maye so we'll be betting him too, and this Patriots passing offense continues to surprise. There's a lot of buzz backing Saints +3.5 this week but that feels like an over-correction. Spencer Rattler has been better than expected, but the Saints defense has been worse than expected. New Orleans ranks bottom four by DVOA defensively, including bottom four against the pass. All five Saints opponents this season have thrown for multiple touchdowns. Maye has passed for multiple TDs in three of five games this season, that 60% hit rate up almost double from his 4-of-11 rate (36%) as a rookie. This prop has a 100% hit rate against the Saints so far this season, so let's hope Maye keeps the fireworks coming with a pair of touchdown passes in New Orleans.
Markus Markets
Markus Markets
Last 30d: 43-37-2 (+13.0u)
T.Henderson o13.5 Rec Yds-114
1u
MJC Locks
MJC Locks
Last 30d: 12-31-0 (+0.9u)
D.Maye o21.5 Rush Yds-115
1u
Loving this matchup for Maye against the Saints who have allowed: • 9th highest scramble rate • 7th most QB rush yards • T-5th most QB rushes Here’s how mobile QBs have done vs the Saints: ✅ Jaxson Dart 7-55 yds ✅ Josh Allen 7-45 yds ✅ Kyler Murray 7-38 yds The Saints have generated the 2nd lowest pressure rate this season as well so he should have clean pockets….Maye has seen his scramble rate increase when not under pressure (14 of his 17 scrambles when not under pressure) He’s had 24+ rush yards in 5/L7 road games & when he sees 4+ rush attempts he’s had 24+ rush yards in 9/11 games (4 QBs have had 6+ rushes vs NO)
Gilles Gallant
Gilles Gallant
Last 30d: 27-86-1 (-14.4u)
J.Johnson Anytime TD Scorer Yes+400
0.5u
TAN Pod Touchdown Show
TAN Pod Touchdown Show
Last 30d: 20-73-2 (-7.7u)
D.Vele Anytime TD Scorer Yes+1700
0.5u
A.Hooper Anytime TD Scorer Yes+750
0.5u
Action Pod NFL Picks
Action Pod NFL Picks
Last 30d: 59-118-0 (-3.3u)
S.Diggs o57.5 Rec Yds-110
1u
S.Diggs 80+ Receiving Yards Yes+229
0.44u
S.Diggs 100+ Receiving Yards Yes+477
0.21u
D.Maye o1.5 Pass TDs-105
0.95u
Brandon Kravitz
Brandon Kravitz
Last 30d: 62-81-2 (-11.7u)
NO +3.5-110
1.1u
Selling high on the Patriots 🇺🇸
💰🦡 Jake
💰🦡 Jake
Last 30d: 104-120-8 (+0.2u)
NE -3-120
1u
Kenny Ducey
Kenny Ducey
Last 30d: 17-22-0 (-7.2u)
NE -3.5-110
1u
💰🦡 Jake
💰🦡 Jake
Last 30d: 104-120-8 (+0.2u)
C.Olave Anytime TD Scorer Yes+210
0.1u
Over 22.5 (1H)-120
1u
RocketPlays
RocketPlays
Last 30d: 28-56-0 (+1.9u)
K.Miller o30.5 Rush Yds-125
1.25u
K.Miller o69.5 Rush Yds+700
0.25u
Stuck 🚨
Stuck 🚨
Last 30d: 53-60-0 (-1.4u)
NO +3.5-110
0.4u
Matt Moore
Matt Moore
Last 30d: 40-46-0 (-2.5u)
NO +3.5-115
1.1u
RATTLERNATION
Kendra Middleton
Kendra Middleton
Last 30d: 14-5-0 (+10.2u)
NE -3.5+100
1u
Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes
Last 30d: 17-48-0 (-14.8u)
NO +3.5-105
1u
Saints' offense -- even adjusted for schedule -- hasn't been *awful* this year. Now catching 3.5 points at home against a team coming off an emotional primetime game.
Top Shelf Action 🥃
Top Shelf Action 🥃
Last 30d: 194-187-1 (-14.8u)
NE -3.5+100
1u

Patriots vs. Saints Previews & Analysis

  • PRO Digs Up 17-1 ATD Edge Sunday article feature image

    PRO Digs Up 17-1 ATD Edge Sunday

    Alex Kolodziej
    Oct 12, 2025 UTC
  • Gallant's Anytime TD Picks for Every NFL Game article feature image

    Gallant's Anytime TD Picks for Every NFL Game

    Gilles Gallant
    Oct 12, 2025 UTC
  • Patriots vs. Saints: Sell High on the Pats? article feature image

    Patriots vs. Saints: Sell High on the Pats?

    Stuckey
    Oct 12, 2025 UTC
  • Koerner & Raybon's Week 6 NFL Spreads & Totals article feature image

    Koerner & Raybon's Week 6 NFL Spreads & Totals

    chris.raybon
    Oct 12, 2025 UTC
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Patriots vs. Saints Props

Prop Projections

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Prop Odds Comparison

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Line Movement Tracker

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Patriots vs. Saints Public Betting Percentages

Away Logo

Patriots

Public

69%

Bets%

31%

Money%

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Saints
2-61-41-21-01-6
Patriots
6-22-24-04-12-1

Over/Under History

overallhome o/uaway o/ufavorite o/uunderdog o/u
Saints
3-51-42-10-13-4
Patriots
4-42-22-23-21-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Saints
1-7N/AN/A1-00-7
Patriots
6-2N/AN/A4-12-1

Last 5 Matchups

dateopponentscorespreadover/undermoneyline
Oct 5thNYGW 26-14-2.5 WU 41.5NO -134
Sep 28th@BUFL 19-31+14.5 WO 48.5BUF +800
Sep 21st@SEAL 13-44+7.5 LO 41.5SEA +310
Sep 14thSFL 21-26+3 LO 40.5SF +130
Sep 7thARIL 13-20+5.5 LU 44.5ARI +205

Saints vs. Patriots Injury Updates

Saints Injuries

  • Kendre Miller
    RB

    Miller is out with knee

    Out

  • Jordan Howden
    DB

    Howden is questionable with oblique

    Questionable

Patriots Injuries

  • Antonio Gibson
    RB

    Gibson is out with knee

    Out

  • Charles Woods
    CB

    Woods is questionable with concussion

    Questionable

Team Stats
333
Total Yards
296
58
Total Plays
51
5.7
Yards Per Play
5.8
261
YDS
227
18/26
Comps/Atts
20/26
9.63
YPA
7.964
3/0
TDs/INTs
0/0
1/1
Sacks/Yards
2/4
73
Rush Yards
73
31
Attempts
23
2.355
YPC
3.174
0
TDs
1
0
Fumbles Lost
1
0
Interceptions
0

Efficiency

0/1 0%
Redzone
1/2 50%
6/13 0%
3rd Down
3/9 0%
1/2 0%
4th Down
0/0 0%

First Downs

19
Total
17
12
Pass
7
5
Rush
7
2
Penalty
3
11/65
Penalties/Yards
8/67
31:44
Possession
28:16

Patriots vs. Saints Odds Comparison

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Patriots at Saints Team Totals

MatchupOverUnder
Patriots
6-2
o24.5-107
u24.5-115
Saints
1-7
o21.5-111
u21.5-111