Patriots vs. Saints Odds & Betting Predictions - October 12, 2025

X: @PicksOffice

Also adding this since a few books are floating a yardage prop for him now. Wide range of outcomes, but have his median closer to 6.5. 36% chance he doesn’t catch a pass, 2% chance he catches a pass but stays under 3.5 (hopefully would be for a TD), and around a 60% chance he clears 3.5.

Many frustrated fantasy football owners wrote Stefon Diggs off after a slow start to the season, and it's easy to see why. In Weeks 1 to 3, Diggs was overlooked and forgotten. He averaged just 4.3 receptions for 37 yards on five targets a game and didn't look like a central part of New England's offense. But Diggs broke out with six catches for 101 yards against the Panthers in Week 4, then looked like the Diggs of old with 10 catches for 146 yards on 12 targets on Sunday night against the Bills. In Weeks 4 and 5, Diggs is almost double the targets and receptions he saw those first three games, and he's up 3.3x in receiving yards! This was always the expectation for Stefon Diggs, if you paid attention to the medical experts. Diggs is coming off a torn ACL, and players typically take around a month to ramp up from injury before hitting their usual production. That's almost exactly how long it took Diggs before these two big games, and he can probably still play more snaps going forward too. The Saints pass defense has been bad, especially so against opposing WR1s. New Orleans has already allowed games of 5/71, 5/89, 5/96, and 5/69 against opponent WR1s this season, five catches for each and an average of 81 yards a game on seven targets. Last year in 13 games against a true WR1, the Saints allowed an average of 6.6 receptions for 92 yards on 10 targets. It feels like books have yet to catch up on Diggs as a true WR1 for the Patriots, and this line of 57.5 (BetRivers) feels at least 10 yards too low. Since the start of last season, true WR1s against the Saints have at least five catches and at least 61 yards in 16 of 17 games, a 94% hit rate! I prefer yards to receptions with Diggs since he's also flashing his YAC ability to get the big play, with catches of 30+ yards each of the last two games. Let's play the escalator too. Saints opponent WR1s have had 79 receiving yards or more in 11-of-17 games since the start of last season, almost two-thirds, so we'll play 80+ yards at +229 (DraftKings). New Orleans has yet to allow a 100-yard game this season but Diggs has done that two games in a row and the Saints did allow that number to four WR1s last year, so nibble 100+ yards at +477 too (DraftKings).

Loving this matchup for Maye against the Saints who have allowed: • 9th highest scramble rate • 7th most QB rush yards • T-5th most QB rushes Here’s how mobile QBs have done vs the Saints: ✅ Jaxson Dart 7-55 yds ✅ Josh Allen 7-45 yds ✅ Kyler Murray 7-38 yds The Saints have generated the 2nd lowest pressure rate this season as well so he should have clean pockets….Maye has seen his scramble rate increase when not under pressure (14 of his 17 scrambles when not under pressure) He’s had 24+ rush yards in 5/L7 road games & when he sees 4+ rush attempts he’s had 24+ rush yards in 9/11 games (4 QBs have had 6+ rushes vs NO)

@ChrisRaybon https://myaction.app/QzEiDAmkmXb

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/xBM2x7iamXb

Selling high on the Patriots 🇺🇸

RATTLERNATION

Saints' offense -- even adjusted for schedule -- hasn't been *awful* this year. Now catching 3.5 points at home against a team coming off an emotional primetime game.