Every week of the NFL regular season, bettors can find matchups to exploit, whether it's a game spread, total, or player props. I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime touchdown props for Week 6 on Sunday, October 12.
Last season, I picked Anytime TD props for every Sunday afternoon game and finished 123-269 (31.4%), with +44.1 units in profit for an 11% ROI.
If you plan to tail all these Week 6 TD bets, please use proper bankroll management. For players listed as “Verdict,” those are 1-unit bets. If a player is listed in “Verdict” as a “Sprinkle,” then it would be a 0.2-unit wager, as those are typically long shots.
Let's break down my NFL anytime touchdown picks for Sunday of NFL Week 6.
NFL Week 6 Anytime Touchdown Scorers
| Picks |
|---|
| Browns vs Steelers |
| Cardinals vs Colts |
| Rams vs Ravens |
| Seahawks vs Jaguars |
| Cowboys vs Panthers |
| Chargers vs Dolphins |
| Patriots vs Saints |
| Titans vs Raiders |
| 49ers vs Buccaneers |
| Bengals vs Packers |
Browns vs. Steelers
I want to remain positive about Browns TD scorers, but I find it hard to get excited about Dillon Gabriel as a passer in the NFL. He was blitzed on just over half of his dropbacks against the Vikings and saw his completion percentage drop off a cliff when he was pressured.
Obviously, it's a small sample size, but now he’s returning from London to play in Pittsburgh against a defense that is similar to the Vikings'. The Steelers blitz at a top-three rate and generates a lot of pressure.
That’s why most of the TD value is on the Browns this week, because the game total is dropping hard, and we may only see two total touchdowns from Cleveland.
I can make a case for nearly four Browns pass-catchers that have positive matchups (David Njoku, Harold Fannin Jr., Isaiah Bond, Jamari Thrash), but the issue is that you never know whose week it’s going to be.
In theory, you could bet on all of them, but that isn’t a sound strategy.
Instead, I think we just bet on Gabriel to rush for a TD because the Steelers play a lot of man coverage and he did scramble twice against man defense against the Vikings last week.
With almost every Browns player at long-shot odds, I’ll take the player I know will touch the ball on every offensive snap.
The Browns defense plays man coverage at top-five rate, and their run defense has been a brick wall, with only three rushing TDs allowed and ranking first in defensive DVOA against the run.
Since the Browns' defensive line adds so much pressure, I think Steelers TEs are still the way to go since they have played 12 personnel (two TE sets) at the third-highest rate.
That’s why I want to take a flier on TE Darnell Washington at +900. He saw his highest snap rate and routes run rate of the season with TE Jonnu Smith playing through a hip injury.
Washington’s blocking ability is easily the best of the three TEs. I expect him to still see plenty of snaps in Week 6, with hopefully a couple end zone targets as a result.
Verdict: Dillon Gabriel +650 | Darnell Washington +900
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Cardinals vs. Colts
I know the Colts have been pretty impressive through five weeks, but I still think the defense has some holes, especially in the run game.
Indianapolis ranks fourth in defensive DVOA against the pass compared to 16th against the run.
Even though the Colts have only allowed two rushing TDs (first in NFL), that’s mainly because they’ve been able to run up a huge lead in three of their five games, creating a script where opposing teams are forced to throw.
Well, here’s the problem for the Colts: the Cardinals don't play in blowouts very often. Every Cardinals game this year has come down to the wire.
If I expect Arizona to keep it close, let’s continue to lean on the run game and take RB1 Michael Carter.
He scored last week as the starter, and the Cardinals' run game looked way better in that one (three rushing TDs) until RB Emari Demercado dropped the ball.
With Demercado in the doghouse and QB Kyler Murray potentially limited with an injury, I think Carter is our best bet because trying to pick a Cardinals pass-catcher is just a game of roulette.
Colts defensive tackle DeForest Buckner is also out, which helps Carter’s case this week.
For Colts TD scorers, last week we banked on RB Jonathan Taylor to have two touchdowns, and he rewarded us with three.
He’ll still be in the mix, but the rushing upside is a bit capped with the Cardinals ranking seventh in defensive DVOA against the run. They also like to play zone coverage with a lot of Cover 3 and Cover 4.
This checks the boxes for WR2 Josh Downs; he leads the team in targets-per-route-run against zone defenses.
With WR Alec Pierce expected back, this means less opportunity for WRs like Adonai Mitchell or Ashton Dulin as well.
Verdict: Michael Carter +205 | Josh Downs +285
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Rams vs. Ravens
Oh, the Rams play this week? And WR Davante Adams is still listed at plus-odds to score?
Then we go right back to him. Even in a matchup where the Rams might need to throw 20 times total.
The Ravens defense is a complete mess, especially their pass defense, which has allowed 10 TDs to WRs this season (tied for last in the NFL).
Adams has nine end-zone targets in four games and the Ravens' pass defense is trending down without Roquan Smith and Chidobie Awuzie.
On the Ravens' side, we took Isaiah Likely at +600 against the Texans, and while he played 53% of snaps, he only got one catch in a game that was mostly decided before halftime.
I think we’ll see a more spirited showing from the Ravens this week, and if they can actually put some points on the board, that helps both Davante's chances of scoring a TD and Likely's chances of scoring a TD.
If you want to take TE Mark Andrews at +400 because of the TD pedigree, I wouldn’t knock it, but with Cooper Rush at QB, the scoring upside is limited.
Verdict: Davante Adams +135 | Isaiah Likely +600
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Seahawks vs. Jaguars
After watching Kareem Hunt run for two touchdowns on the Jaguars — along with QB Patrick Mahomes — my mind is made up: Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet is scoring in Week 6.
Charbonnet has scored in three of four games this season, and even though RB Kenneth Walker is getting the most carries, it’s only a slight edge, as it only averages out to 1.2 more carries per game.
Despite playing one less game, Charbonnet leads the Seahawks in red-zone carries and has nearly doubled Walker in touches inside the 10- and 5-yard line.
There’s a good chance both RBs can score because the Jags rank 24th in defensive DVOA against the run. At these odds, I’ll take Charbonnet over Walker every time.
On the flip side, the Seahawks defense has been pretty tough against the run, but they’ve been vulnerable against the pass with eight passing TDs allowed. With three of those allowed to tight ends, I say we take another swing on Jaguars' TE Hunter Long at +400.
Brenton Strange was the starter, but he’s out for the foreseeable future, and Long has played the second-most snaps of any Jacksonville TE this season while running the second-most routes.
The Seahawks have played zone at the eighth-highest rate, and Long caught his only TD against zone coverage. He’s also got two end-zone targets.
I think one of the Jags TEs is scoring this week between Long and Johnny Mundt. But with Long at +400 and Mundt at +600, the upside and data point to Hunter.
Verdict: Zach Charbonnet +200 | Hunter Long +400
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Cowboys vs. Panthers
Despite how awesome the Cowboys offense has looked at times this season, it’s overshadowed just how bad their defense has been.
Dallas ranks in the bottom two in defensive DVOA against both the pass and the run. Thus, you can make a lot of cases for Panthers TD scorers.
When looking at the Cowboys, they play zone at second-highest rate in the NFL while also playing Cover 3 at the 10th-highest rate.
I say we take a swing on a long shot like WR Brycen Tremayne at +1200 in this spot. While he hasn’t been getting a ton of snaps this season, he’s had the best receiver metrics on the team against zone and Cover 3, such as targets per route run and yards per route run.
If you wanted to take a safer pick like Tetairoa McMillan, I’d be OK with it since the Cowboys have allowed WR1 X-receivers to dominate with eight TDs allowed to that position in the last four games.
For the Cowboys, we went with WR4 Ryan Flournoy last week as we were getting a great price (+500), and while he didn’t score, he caught six balls for over 100 yards receiving. As a result, his TD odds have plummeted to +280.
That means we should pivot back to WR3 Jalen Tolbert at +350.
Much like the Cowboys, the Panthers also run zone at a top-five rate, along with Cover 3 at the third-highest rate.
Tolbert is the only Cowboys WR to get end-zone targets this year (2), other than George Pickens (11).
Tolbert also is one of the few Cowboys that is almost guaranteed to see significant snaps on offense with the absences of CeeDee Lamb and Kavontae Turpin.
Verdict: Jalen Tolbert +350 | Sprinkle on Brycen Tremayne +1300
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Chargers vs. Dolphins
When picking Chargers TD scorers, I immediately checked to see what WR Quentin Johnston’s TD odds are and make my move from there.
This week against the Dolphins, both Johnston and WR Keenan Allen are +185 or lower. I’d rather pivot to QB Justin Herbet at +425.
If you’ve read my TD column in previous weeks, you know I’ve been hammering QB rushing TDs against the Dolphins. The Dolphins tend to play a higher rate of man coverage, and that puts them in bind when defending rushing QBs.
As a result, Miami has allowed the most rushing TDs to QBs through four games and almost allowed another to the Panthers, but QB Bryce Young was tackled at the 1-yard line.
Pair that with the fact that the Chargers' run game in shambles due to injuries to RBs Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris — not to mention the offensive line — and Herbert may need to scramble more if the Dolphins' pass-rush is getting home.
I know we took Dolphins RB Ollie Gordon last week because it was “supposed” to be a good matchup against the Panthers, but I still like the upside with the rookie this week. The Chargers have been low key been awful at stopping the run lately.
Over the last three games, the Chargers have given up four rushing TDs and have been in negative or trailing game scripts a lot because they’ve been out of whack on offense.
The Dolphins have typically seen their offensive output be much better at home. If they get ahead and get within the 10-yard line, the Dolphins may line up De'Von Achane out wide or in the slot as a receiver, and then run it with Gordon between the tackles.
There’s a reason Gordon still leads the team in attempts inside the 10-yard line and 5-yard line.
Verdict: Justin Herbert +425 | Ollie Gordon +500
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Patriots vs. Saints
After investing in Saints WR Chris Olave over the last two weeks, I think it's time we pivot to TE Juwan Johnson.
The big man only has one TD this season, but he has still been a big part of the offense with the second-most targets, catches and five red-zone targets.
All of those categories trail Olave, but I’m not convinced the WR will have a successful game with Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez likely shadowing him.
The Patriots have played man coverage at the ninth-highest rate, and Johnson caught his only TD this season against man defense. They also rank 28th in defensive DVOA against tight ends this season. At +400, Johnson is who I’m targeting this week.
Sticking with the tight ends in this one because I expect a decent bounce-back effort from Patriots TE Hunter Henry.
The Saints play zone at the 11th-highest rate with a lot of Cover 3. This is partially why I went with Bills TE Dalton Kincaid in Week 4, because of how well he did against that type of defense and he scored.
Henry has nearly identical receiver metrics against zone and Cover 3.
With the Saints allowing four TDs to TEs this season (three in the last two games), I say we just keep it simple and look at QB Drake Maye’s top target.
Verdict: Juwan Johnson +400 | Hunter Henry +200
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Titans vs. Raiders
Maybe this will be the game where Titans QB Cam Ward really lights it up, because this Raiders' pass defense has been horrendous against opposing wide receivers.
Las Vegas has given up seven passing TDs, with six to the wideouts and five to the outside receiver specifically. The Raiders also play zone at the highest rate in the NFL, with the highest rate of Cover 3.
We went with Elic Ayomanor last week, but I think it’s WR1 Calvin Ridley’s turn to shine.
