Falcons vs. Eagles Odds & Betting Predictions - September 17, 2024

Great spot for Pitts tonight… Falcons are 6.5 point underdogs tonight against the Eagles & I expect more than 26 passing attempts from Kirk Cousins. Pitts is about to shine in Philly, his hometown. Despite not looking great, Kirk connected with Pitts for 3 receptions last game against the Steelers, he also had 2 catches that were called back so he had the potential of having ~5. Pitts usage in game 1 was amazing. He played 54 of 56 snaps & ran routes on 100% of pass plays. Last year, the Eagles ranked 2nd in the league in opposing slot target % at 36.2%. Thus meaning opposing quarterbacks leveraged their slot receivers more against Philly than 30 other teams. Pitts lead the team in slot route % last week lining up there 59.1% of the time. He also had the 2nd best separation score in the slot. Last week, Jayden Reed dominated in the slot against this same Eagles defense, with 4 receptions on 6 targets for 138 yards and a score. This, also, with a much more crowded receiving room. Over the last two season, Kirk Cousins is 3rd the NFL when it comes to TE target share (25%). Pitts has significantly underperformed not because of per-route usage but because of target quality and quantity. With the Vikings over the last two years, Kirk Cousin’s passing attack averaged +50% more catchable targets per game than Atlanta did. Now with him, and new OC Zac Robinson who is eager to deploy a new pass-heavy offense, Pitts should only continue to see targets and receptions. The Eagles secondary currently ranks 20th in the league after allowing Green Bay to see plenty of success against them in Brazil. I think the combination of the narrative play and great matchup should allow Pitts to shine again.

If he suits up — hammy injury, missed practice Saturday — he is a gigantic body and RZ threat. Without AJB he slides to that WR3 role that could be in most RZ sets because of his size. Worth a dart throw

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Atlanta's offense, led by Kirk Cousins, has had difficulty generating consistent scoring. In their opener against Pittsburgh, they managed just 10 points, all in the first half, and failed to score in the second half. Cousins threw for a modest 155 yards with two interceptions, and while Bijan Robinson had a solid 68 yards on the ground, his average of 3.8 yards per carry isn’t enough to break open the game against a stout Eagles defense. The Falcons punted three times and committed two turnovers, reflecting an inability to maintain sustained drives. On defense, Atlanta showed some resilience, keeping Pittsburgh out of the red zone and allowing only field goals, which indicates that they might be able to hold their own against Philadelphia for parts of the game. However, the Falcons failed to force any turnovers, a critical aspect when facing a potent Eagles offense. Their pass rush did produce two sacks, but facing a much more dominant Philadelphia offensive line, it’s unlikely they’ll disrupt Jalen Hurts to the same extent. Philadelphia, while capable of high offensive output, seems positioned to grind down the Falcons with a balanced attack, especially given their recent focus on the run game with Saquon Barkley. Barkley was electric in his debut for the Eagles, rushing for 109 yards and two touchdowns. Expect the Eagles to rely heavily on him and control the pace of the game, especially since Hurts struggled with two interceptions in their opener. Despite Hurts’ 278 passing yards, turnovers slowed the Eagles down at times, a situation they will look to avoid in this matchup by leaning on Barkley and their ground game to secure possession and chew clock. Philadelphia’s defense will also play a key role in keeping this game under the total. Zack Baun’s two sacks and 15 tackles show the capability of the Eagles’ pass rush to pressure Cousins, who is prone to turnovers. The Falcons’ offensive line could be overwhelmed by the Eagles' pressure, especially if Kaleb McGary is sidelined. With A.J. Brown officially out for this game, the Eagles' offensive strategy will likely shift even more toward a run-heavy approach. Brown is a key target for Jalen Hurts in the passing game, and his absence will reduce the Eagles' ability to stretch the field with big passing plays. Without his explosive playmaking, Philadelphia will be more inclined to lean on their ground game, featuring Saquon Barkley and Hurts himself as a runner, which will keep the clock moving and limit overall scoring opportunities.

… the under system Overall: 407-289-5,58% (ROI:13%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%) … extended rest unders Overall: 171-117-4,59% (ROI:14%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%)

@nick_giffen

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

#Tailing @nick_giffen

🔑 Hurts 2+ TDs +700 (FanDuel) .5u This is worth a sprinkle if you have it. Saquon got the goal line work but I’m expecting they put the ball in Hurts hands more. Hurts has 9 rushing TDs in his career on MNF. This is obviously a long shot play so be smart about it but my system has this as a good value spot here with a 3.5% edge on the market.

Bijan was the clear winner in new OC Zac Robinson’s play calling in Week 1, ranking second in the league in his position in rushing attempt share (81.8%), dominating touches 16-3 amongst his teammate Tyler Allgeier. Compare this utilization from Week 1-4 of his rookie season, his 46.9% was cut in half having to work split more with Allgeier (53-45), not to mention the potential of a mobile QB who wasn’t a pure pocket-passer like Kirk Cousins to steal some carries. But in Week 1, I don’t think we got this see the full upside. After ATL’s successful 12-play drive to open the game for 64 yards, the offense took a turn for the worse including 8 of the next 9 drives NOT going for more than 22 yards, only 35.61% 2nd half time of possession share (29th ranked), going 2-9 on 3rd down, and to close out, only running 11 plays of the final four possessions. HC Raheem Morris acknowledged this struggle saying “the turnovers took snaps - and opportunities away from playmakers, and when you get off track, your runs get limited and get in rhythm.” The Falcons had 22 carries compared to The Steeler’s 41. So even with the expectation Allgeier could where going mixed in more going forward we should expect the Falcons norm to be more in the high-20’s to mid 30’s not 22 like Week 1. Monday Night’s game should be a good opportunity to get back on track. Under new Eagles DC’s Vig Fangio’s two-high shell defense, big plays are limited, but runs are more susceptible. And with just a 5.5 spread, especially with the Eagles missing big-play receiver AJ Brown, this could be a more neutral gamescipt enough for Falcons to establish the run (9th highest in Week 1). #PlayerProps

DK

Sura

Sandy

Bet365

Full analysis: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/kyle-pitts-saquon-barkley-nfl-player-prop-predictions-falcons-vs-eagles-mnf?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=propbetguy

Tailing @mbiever

2 targets last week and Morris made it a point to say he wasn’t targeted enough. I am worried about Kirk w/ the Achilles injury, but in a negative game script and a receiver that I believe has a sky-high ceiling, this number feels like a great buy-low spot after a terrible WK1 from ATL in general

But but but no AJ Brown

Jalen “take care of the fucking ball” Hurts

This feels disgusting, but a WR2 on this offense with no AJ Brown and Johnny Wilson also nursing a hamstring injury having an O/U of 27.5 feels wrong. Could we see them spam the Saquon button? Sure. But Dotson is a capable receiver who went over this number in 7 games last year with a way worse OL/QB. All attention will be away from him

This line barely went down from the AJB news of him being out. It went down like 5 yards. And I just completely disagree with that. AJB makes Hurts life so easy with his YAC/Contest catch ability. He is truly elite. With Smith playing in the slot, they don’t have any explosive play threats really. Philly can run the ball at will behind that O-Line and a healthy Saquon. Wouldn’t be surprised to see them skew super run heavy. Atlanta has a pretty good secondary with Jesse Bates, Justin Simmons, AJ Terrell, etc. AJB has played in every game the last two years, just think that Hurts may not look great without him.

Adding to my previous Dotson bet.

Pick em 5 🔒

Throwing a bet on this with AJ Brown & Johnny Wilson missing Saturday practice.

-The world thinks Kirk is terrible in Primetime and that will be the narrative across all media outlets -Kirk’s first 15 games on a Monday/Thursday started off 1-15 -But since 2019 he’s 6-2 on the moneyline in Monday/Thursday games. Oddly enough both losses were in Philly, but even then he covered one of those losses -I LOVE the Falcons to cover in this spot

Biev is somewhere out there smiling

The Eagles exploded in Week 1, but the Falcons put up just 10 points at home indoors. Have this total closer to 44 points.