Falcons vs. Buccaneers Odds & Betting Predictions - December 12, 2025

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Luck Rankings B grade

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Tailing @nick_giffen

Baker Mayfield ⬇️ 31.5 Passing Attempts (-105 @ BetMGM)(TB) Baker has to be playing through injuries because he doesn't look like his early season MVP self. It also doesn't help that most of TB's offense has dealt with injuries either. Baker has been under this line in each of his last 4 games. At home this season, he's been under in 4 of 6 games. The two overs were against pass funnel offenses - PHI and NE - both great against the run. ATL is quite the opposite. They present more as a run funnel defense and with Bucky back I think TB will look to do just that. ATL is allowing the 8th fewest pass attempts per game this season (29.9). Meanwhile they are allowing the 9th most rushing yards per game. I also think Baker will use his legs in this game and with the trio of RB's healthy, they can focus on the run if they want to. As 5.5 favorites at home they could easily find themselves in a positive game script where they just control the second half with the run.

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3 straight under 21pts for the Bucs. 25.5 is a little rich for an offense that is out of sorts on a Thursday night in division.

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Winfield has only cleared this in 4 of 13 games (31%), and all 4 came against teams that provide above-average tackle opps for safeties. The Falcons have provided the 9th fewest, making this a tougher matchup. Winfield is also much more involved in pass-play tackling, and this isn’t a great spot, as I’m projecting Tampa Bay to face ~3 fewer completions than usual and about +1.5 more run plays, which hurts Winfield specifically. However, there are some moving pieces here. The Bucs are without LB SirVocea Dennis (out), and S Tykee Smith is doubtful. The loss of Dennis could lead to Winfield getting a few extra tackle chances because backup Deion Jones is a huge downgrade. We could see more run plays get into the open field and expose Winfield to more tackle opps, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he will be the one taking down Bijan every time. If Smith ends up ruled out, I’m not convinced it helps Winfield. It’ll likely be Christian Izien filling in, and he has lined up in the box at a very high rate, which would keep Winfield deep more often. Izien was a tackling machine in that role and racked up 8 tackles when he played just under 50% of the snaps last week after Smith went down. He could help pick up the slack from Deion Jones playing more and potentially prevent some plays from reaching Winfield. In the end, I still think Winfield mixes in on a handful of tackles but ultimately stays just short of this number. I’m projecting him for 5.9 with around a 61% chance to stay under 6.5. If early on it looks like Kaevon Merriweather (#26) is replacing Smith and not Izien (#29), I would consider buying out on his live market. If Winfield lines up in the box on the opening drive but doesn’t get a tackle and we see his live number around 5.5, I’d maybe try to middle it and root for him to finish with 6 exactly. But if we see #29 out there on the opening snap and closer to the line of scrimmage, with Winfield (#31) deep, that’s exactly what I want for the under. The fun part of tackle props is sometimes you can tell on the opening drive, just based on how a guy is lining up, whether you’re sitting on a winning or losing bet.

Since Week 7 ATL has allowed: • 2nd Highest Back Target% • Most Backfield Targets • Most Backfield Rec Yds • Most Backfield Missed Tackles • 4th Most YACO/Rec Perfect matchup for Bucky who is elite when he gets out into space. He ranks 3rd among all RBs in YAC per Reception (12.9) and has a 20+ Longest Reception in 5/L5 games. ATL is also a zone heavy team. Most of Bucky’s production in the pass game has come against zone coverage, where he has a .26 TPRR & 2.79 YPRR.

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There is a value opportunity on Mike Evans's receiving yards prop. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 33.29 receiving yards, while sportsbooks imply 52.51. The model believes there is a 73% chance he records fewer than 45.5 receiving yards, so there is some value on the under at -105. This play is good down to at least -176. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

I was high on Bucky entering his rookie season and thought he could push Rachaad White and potentially leapfrog him. Sure enough, that’s what happened, but I viewed him more as a pass-catching specialist, which overlapped with White’s skill set, since White wasn’t very good on early downs. He��s been struggling in year two, and a lot of that can be chalked up to dealing with nagging injuries and missing multiple games this year. He stepped right back into the lead role in his two games since returning, but the inefficiency as a runner has remained. Out of 45 qualified RBs, he ranks 2nd to last in success rate on runs (only ahead of Rhamondre Stevenson. Too bad Mike Vrabel won’t be reading this pick note lol). Rachaad White ranks 2nd, sandwiched between Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, who rank 1st and 3rd. Sean Tucker doesn’t have enough attempts to qualify, but he would be well ahead of Bucky and rank 30th, and Tucker has always profiled as the better short-yardage back of the group. So I think the coaching staff continues to tweak their usage and possibly lets White/Tucker see a bit more early-down and short-yardage work, while focusing on getting Bucky more involved as a pass catcher, where he’s been elite with a league-high 12.9 YAC per reception. We saw them trend toward the more optimal approach last week. Despite going ultra run heavy in the 24-20 loss to the Saints (39 rush attempts to 30 passes), Bucky still only had 15 carries because it was more of a 60/40 split with White on early downs. It’ll be tough for Tampa Bay to rack up nearly 40 carries again this week against Atlanta, in a game where I think Falcons +4.5 is the sharp side. It’ll also be the first time all season they have their top 4 WRs fully healthy in Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and even Jalen McMillan. So I’m projecting them to be a bit more pass heavy, which involves getting Bucky the ball in space in the passing game, and likely keeps White/Tucker involved enough on early downs to cap Bucky’s upside in this market. I’m projecting him closer to 15.4 rush attempts with around a 61% chance to stay under 16.5.

Bucky has his this prop in 9/9 games in his career vs bottom 15 rush defenses…

Week 15 Hot Read @wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/F2mTR3XpWYb

Night Unders Overall: 204-139-5,59% (ROI:14%) Season:15-7-0,68% (ROI:30%) Open Air Unders: Divisional Drift Overall: 543-419-12,56% (ROI:9%) Season:20-17-0,54% (ROI:4%) Outside divisional game (***) Overall: 263-170-10,61% (ROI:18%) Season:8-7-0,53% (ROI:2%)

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