Nick Giffen

Just betting on the better team

CJ Stroud over 10.5 rush yds (-110 at Bet365, -115 DK, -118 BetMGM) Stroud has 24 scrambles in 12 starts this year, and with two of those starts cut short he really is averaging closer to 2.2 scrambles per 100% of snaps. His 5.7% scramble rate is set to go up in this game, as the Los Angeles Chargers do some things that promote QB scrambling. Namely, they have a top 10 pressure rate over expectation (PrROE) and they play a lot of two-high safety looks, keeping an extra man out of the box, yielding more room for scrambles. That means the Chargers have allowed a top-10 raw scrambling rate to QBs, and a 0.25% scramble rate over expectation, which would put Stroud a tick shy of a 6% scramble rate. At 38 projected dropbacks, that's 2.25 scrambles. The Chargers allow 7.33 yards per scramble, and Stroud averages 7.95 yards per scramble, so two scrambles should, on average, put him well clear of this line. He also may have a designed run or sneak in there, of which he's had 16 in 12 games which should gain him an extra yard or two on average, but should also relatively balance out with any potential kneeldowns. That means I have Stroud clearing this line around 61.5% of the time just on scrambles alone. I even have him clearing 12.5 nearly 55.5% of the time, so I'm fine with this at -114 at FanDuel if that's your only option.