Nick Giffen

Deebo Samuel over 37.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM) Things are lining up perfectly for Deebo Samuel to have a big day against the Vikings, and it all starts with his teammates. With Terry McLaurin fully healthy now and expected to play a full complement of snaps, and the emergence of Treylon Burks opposite McLaurin in 3 WR sets, Samuel can operate from the slot or backfield a high percentage of the time. That's perfect because Minnesota allows the third highest percentage of slot targets compared to wide targets in the NFL, and they also play -- by far -- the most two-high safety looks in the league. Deebo leads the team in target share vs. two-high looks, and also leads the team in target share vs. zone coverage of which the Vikings lean toward as well compared to league averages. The Vikings also blitz a ton. North of 40% of the time they are sending extra defenders, and when they don't generate pressure on those blitzes that favors Samuel as well. He's targeted an absurd 32% of routes when Daniels is blitzed but it doesn't generate pressure which the Vikings do more than any other team. The Vikings also rank eighth worst in yards after the catch allowed because they allow the third highest expected yards after the catch thanks to their coverage schemes. Deebo has cleared this line in 4 of 5 games with Daniels at QB, 4 of 5 games against teams that play a higher rate of zone than league average, and 3 of 4 games against teams that play more than a 55% rate of two-high safety looks. I'd play this up to 40.5.

Michael Pittman over 4.5 receptions -120 at FanDuel Jacksonville allows the most targets per game in the league to players lined up out wide, and with Josh Downs operating from the slot north of 70% of the time he is on the field, that's going to keep Pittman on the outside for around 70%+ of snaps. The Colts other primary outside WR, Alec Pierce, along with Downs both see their target share drop precipitously against zone coverage, of which the Jaguars play eighth-most in the league, including fifth most in the second half of the season. Pittman's target share remains at 22% of routes whether its man or zone coverage. That means Pittman should be targeted heavily, especially in a game with potential downpours where the deeper targets to Pierce may be inadvisable at times with the weather conditions. Pittman's median receptions this year is 5, despite facing just three defenses that rank inside the top 10 in most targets per game to outside receivers. He went over in two of those, with the one under coming against the No. 4 ranked Broncos pass defense with Pat Surtain marking him, and he still caught 4 balls. I love laddering Pittman's receptions in this spot as well. The only other time he faced a defense that allowed a top-five rate of targets to outside WRs was in a one-score game against the No. 13 ranked Steelers pass defense and he caught nine passes on twelve targets. This line is 1.5 points and the Jaguars rank 15th. He could match that Steelers performance here.

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7+ ladder ... wasnt working tracking it as 7+ alt rec so just doing it at over 6.5 ... same thing

This is just too long

Ashton Jeanty under 4.5 receptions (-110 at BetMGM, Bet365) Jeanty has stark receiving splits when it comes to man vs. zone coverage and single vs. two-high safety coverage. His targets per route run (TPRR) drop in half when going from zone to man, and drop by 35% when going from two-high to single high looks. Unfortunately for him, in weeks when Pat Surtain has been fully healthy, the Broncos play the third-most man and ninth-most single high safety in the league. Denver also, despite being 10-2 meaning scripts where the opposition would be pass heavy, allow the second fewest targets to RBs. That's in large part because they allow the lowest share of targets to RBs of any NFL team; they are great at man marking RBs out of the passing game. Jeanty's line is likely inflated by a recent spurt of four out of five games clearing this line, including three straight with 6-plus receptions. The one game he didn't clear this line was against Denver, where he had three receptions on five targets despite the Broncos playing more zone with Surtain out. But since Surtain is back and fully healthy, expect closer to the 40% man coverage the Broncos play with Surtain than the 23% they played against Las Vegas in the first meeting. This is good to -150.

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