Nick Giffen

Joe Flacco over 38.5 Pass Att (-110 at BetMGM, HardRock, -118 at DK) This is a strong wind game, but I'm still showing value on Joe Flacco to clear 38.5 pass attempts for a handful of reasons. First, these two teams are Nos. 31 and 32 in time of possession, so there will simply be more overall play volume, and I'm projecting about an 8% increase in total play volume over each team's baseline. For Cincy's baseline, they have run 64.25 plays per game with Flacco in at QB in four games with the average in-game scoring margin in those four games of -2.7 points, which tracks pretty closely with a 5.5-point underdog as they are this weekend (they averaged to a 4.25-point underdog in those four games). Thus, an eight percent increase is around 69.5 plays expected, although i'll dock a few for it being a strong wind game, putting this game on the ground more. Flacco has thrown a pass attempt on 67.3% of total plays, so using that number as a similar underdog and docking it a full 4% for a super strong wind game on 66.5 total plays, and accounting for 2.5 sacks projected I'd get 39.5 passing attempts. But these are all worst case scenarios. I strictly docked him for 20+ mph wind games, but that includes the 30+ mph sustained wind games. Instead, if I limit the sustained winds between 18-23 mph, the pass rate only drops by about 1.3 attempts, or just under 2% instead of 4%, which would also increase the total plays back up to closer to 68 projected. Just making those small changes gets me to 42 projected pass attempts, and I'm still undercounting it because I'm not accounting for the fact that Flacco projects to be a bigger dog with a bigger average defecit than the four games he's played already as a Bengal. That leaves us plenty of wiggle room to stay over 38.5 pass attempts, and there's other factors in play here that help like projected explosiveness for the Steelers and their above average pace that work in the favor of the Bengals running more plays. Obviously if the Bengals get out to a lead this won't hit, but schedule-adjusted Expected Scores lean toward a Steelers cover. Even if the Steelers fall behind there's a case here because they'll go more no huddle and they throw at one of the highest rates while trailing, which would give the ball back to Cincy quicker (hopefully by them taking the lead back after a touchdown). I'd play this over 39.5 as well. tl;dr -- market is overreacting to wind

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker Almost took it myself as an official play so lets roll

Jordan Love under 31.5 Pass Att (-155 at BetMGM betting 0.5u to win 0.32u at -155, and under 30.5 -120 at DK/FD/ESPN) 0.6u to win half unit at -120) Just based off rate calculations from the projected spread and total plays, I'd have this line around 30.5 for Jordan Love, although there is some added variance from the Giants side with Jameis Winston in at QB which could impact play volume. Jameis aside, Green Bay is in a great spot to have some early down success by close to 6% higher than they've had over the past six games thanks to facing this Giants defense who cannot stop the run. That should lead to fewer passing situations overall for Love as Green Bay should go run heavy against this dead last ranked Giants run defense. It should also help that Green Bay projects for a ton of explosive plays, ranking fourth in run explosiveness and sixth in pass explosiveness, which will shorten the number of plays needed to complete a possession. There's also the wind factor, with sustained winds projected at 18mph and gusts pushing 40mph, which should turn things into a bit more of a ground game overall. Love has averaged 30.8 pass attempts in regulation, with a median of 31, but that drops to 29 and 29 in wins, and the Packers are 7-point favorites against a team that can't stop the run. The lines are moving, but at the time of writing and tracking this, MGM has under 31.5 at -155 so I'm betting 0.5u to win 0.32u there, while DK, FD, and ESPN has under 30.5 at -120 where I'm adding 0.6u to win 0.5u

Jordan Love under 31.5 Pass Att (-155 at BetMGM betting 0.5u to win 0.32u at -155, and under 30.5 -120 at DK/FD/ESPN) 0.6u to win half unit at -120) Just based off rate calculations from the projected spread and total plays, I'd have this line around 30.5 for Jordan Love, although there is some added variance from the Giants side with Jameis Winston in at QB which could impact play volume. Jameis aside, Green Bay is in a great spot to have some early down success by close to 6% higher than they've had over the past six games thanks to facing this Giants defense who cannot stop the run. That should lead to fewer passing situations overall for Love as Green Bay should go run heavy against this dead last ranked Giants run defense. It should also help that Green Bay projects for a ton of explosive plays, ranking fourth in run explosiveness and sixth in pass explosiveness, which will shorten the number of plays needed to complete a possession. There's also the wind factor, with sustained winds projected at 18mph and gusts pushing 40mph, which should turn things into a bit more of a ground game overall. Love has averaged 30.8 pass attempts in regulation, with a median of 31, but that drops to 29 and 29 in wins, and the Packers are 7-point favorites against a team that can't stop the run. The lines are moving, but at the time of writing and tracking this, MGM has under 31.5 at -155 so I'm betting 0.5u to win 0.32u there, while DK, FD, and ESPN has under 30.5 at -120 where I'm adding 0.6u to win 0.5u

Travis Etienne under 14.5 rush att (-105 at BetMGM) Etienne has averaged 14.6 rush attempts per game, so this line is in line with his season-long average, but I think there's several reasons to back the under here. First, the Jaguars are 2.5-point underdogs, yet they are 5-4 and the average win probability of any offensive play they've run has been 52%, including 53% in the second half. As underdogs, that should flip to around 45-47% projected win probability per play, which would force a slightly more pass happy game script. Second, the Chargers are the No. 1 team in terms of time of possession at 33:35 min poss/60 min, while the Jags sit seventh at 31:26. That means we can expect Jacksonville to have around5-10% less possession than normal, which would reduce Etienne's carry expectation by half to one whole attempt. Finally, the matchup is an interesting one. The Jaguars project around a 2.5-3% lower early down success rate then they've had over their previous six games, which should leave a few more passing situations as well. And when Etienne does run, he could hit a few more explosives, as the Jaguars run game projects for more than two full percentage points above their normal explosive run rate against a Chargers D that allows high YPC to the outsides. So what Etienne might do in 2-3 carries he could do in one carry at a slightly higher frequency. Etienne has averaged 12.5 carries in four losses, despite one of those losses coming with a massive game script advantage last week in Houston's epic 19-point come from behind win in the second half. All together, I'm getting closer to 13.5 carries for Etienne which would keep him under 14.5 carries just over 60% of the time.

Terrance Ferguson overs Longest Reception over 13.5 yds (-120 at DK/HardRock, -130 MGM) 1/3u Over 20.5 rec yds (-112 at DK) 1/3u (365 has 17.5 -110 but I'll track DK since only 365 has that line) Over 1.5 recs (-110 at Bet365) 1/3u I agree with Brandon Anderson here, Ferguson is in a great spot and I'll add a few extra reasons to his writeup. Ferguson has run a route on exactly 33% of Matthew Stafford's dropbacks over the last three games, which were in three games where the average Rams offensive play came with north of 80% (or even 90%) win probability in each game. Stafford averaged 35 dropbacks per game over those three, and I'm projecting him closer to 39 dropbacks in this one, especially as the Seahawks stout run defense puts the Rams in a few more long yardage situations. In addition, Ferguson's target share per route should be quite high given he has a 33% target per route run (TPRR) rate against zone coverage compared to just 18% against man, as well as a 41.7% TPRR against two-high safety looks compared to 21.7% vs. single-high sets. With Seattle running the second-most zone in the league and also the second most two-high coverage, I'm projecting around 4 targets for Ferguson. We should probably expect some regression on his 22.5 aDOT, especially because the Seahawks force teams underneath, but that just means Ferguson's expected catch rate would go up as well. I like all his overs, whether it's over on receptions, yards, or longest reception, so I'll split a third of a unit on each.

Terrance Ferguson overs Longest Reception over 13.5 yds (-120 at DK/HardRock, -130 MGM) 1/3u Over 20.5 rec yds (-112 at DK) 1/3u (365 has 17.5 -110 but I'll track DK since only 365 has that line) Over 1.5 recs (-110 at Bet365) 1/3u I agree with Brandon Anderson here, Ferguson is in a great spot and I'll add a few extra reasons to his writeup. Ferguson has run a route on exactly 33% of Matthew Stafford's dropbacks over the last three games, which were in three games where the average Rams offensive play came with north of 80% (or even 90%) win probability in each game. Stafford averaged 35 dropbacks per game over those three, and I'm projecting him closer to 39 dropbacks in this one, especially as the Seahawks stout run defense puts the Rams in a few more long yardage situations. In addition, Ferguson's target share per route should be quite high given he has a 33% target per route run (TPRR) rate against zone coverage compared to just 18% against man, as well as a 41.7% TPRR against two-high safety looks compared to 21.7% vs. single-high sets. With Seattle running the second-most zone in the league and also the second most two-high coverage, I'm projecting around 4 targets for Ferguson. We should probably expect some regression on his 22.5 aDOT, especially because the Seahawks force teams underneath, but that just means Ferguson's expected catch rate would go up as well. I like all his overs, whether it's over on receptions, yards, or longest reception, so I'll split a third of a unit on each.

Terrance Ferguson overs Longest Reception over 13.5 yds (-120 at DK/HardRock, -130 MGM) 1/3u Over 20.5 rec yds (-112 at DK) 1/3u (365 has 17.5 -110 but I'll track DK since only 365 has that line) Over 1.5 recs (-110 at Bet365) 1/3u I agree with Brandon Anderson here, Ferguson is in a great spot and I'll add a few extra reasons to his writeup. Ferguson has run a route on exactly 33% of Matthew Stafford's dropbacks over the last three games, which were in three games where the average Rams offensive play came with north of 80% (or even 90%) win probability in each game. Stafford averaged 35 dropbacks per game over those three, and I'm projecting him closer to 39 dropbacks in this one, especially as the Seahawks stout run defense puts the Rams in a few more long yardage situations. In addition, Ferguson's target share per route should be quite high given he has a 33% target per route run (TPRR) rate against zone coverage compared to just 18% against man, as well as a 41.7% TPRR against two-high safety looks compared to 21.7% vs. single-high sets. With Seattle running the second-most zone in the league and also the second most two-high coverage, I'm projecting around 4 targets for Ferguson. We should probably expect some regression on his 22.5 aDOT, especially because the Seahawks force teams underneath, but that just means Ferguson's expected catch rate would go up as well. I like all his overs, whether it's over on receptions, yards, or longest reception, so I'll split a third of a unit on each.

Dillon Gabriel under 2.5 Rush Att (+130 Bet365, +120 BetMGM) 0.5u Dillon Gabriel under 12.5 rush yds (-110 DK/Bet365) 0.55u to win 0.5u Gabriel has just 12 rushing attempts on the year which break down into the following 10 scrambles 1 kneel down 1 designed run As a touchdown underdog, the kneel down angle is less in play than it was in the Browns win over Miami, so the main angle to focus on here is scrambles. It seems pretty unlikely we get more than 2 scrambles out of the rookie QB given he's averaged 2 per game despite facing four of five rushing defenses that allow above average scramble rates when adjusted for the QBs they've faced. That includes a five-scramble game against the Jets, who allow the third-most QB-adjusted scrambles per dropback. Baltimore ranks 20th in QB-adjusted scramble rate allowed, thanks in large part to their lack of pressure where they rank 28th in pressure rate over expected. In a heavy wind game, we could see a Gabriel designed run, but that also means a lower dropback rate as teams are more run heavy in strong wind games. I'm projecting him for one scramble, so we have some wiggle room for either his second designed run or his second QB kneel of the season to still stay under this line. Given scrambles are the biggest QB rushing yard gainers and he projects for just one scramble and considering the Ravens allow just 7.4 yards per QB scramble, I can't get to over 12.5 yards on Gabriel. I'll split my unit on his under on attempts and his under on yards.

Dillon Gabriel under 2.5 Rush Att (+130 Bet365, +120 BetMGM) 0.5u Dillon Gabriel under 12.5 rush yds (-110 DK/Bet365) 0.55u to win 0.5u Gabriel has just 12 rushing attempts on the year which break down into the following 10 scrambles 1 kneel down 1 designed run As a touchdown underdog, the kneel down angle is less in play than it was in the Browns win over Miami, so the main angle to focus on here is scrambles. It seems pretty unlikely we get more than 2 scrambles out of the rookie QB given he's averaged 2 per game despite facing four of five rushing defenses that allow above average scramble rates when adjusted for the QBs they've faced. That includes a five-scramble game against the Jets, who allow the third-most QB-adjusted scrambles per dropback. Baltimore ranks 20th in QB-adjusted scramble rate allowed, thanks in large part to their lack of pressure where they rank 28th in pressure rate over expected. In a heavy wind game, we could see a Gabriel designed run, but that also means a lower dropback rate as teams are more run heavy in strong wind games. I'm projecting him for one scramble, so we have some wiggle room for either his second designed run or his second QB kneel of the season to still stay under this line. Given scrambles are the biggest QB rushing yard gainers and he projects for just one scramble and considering the Ravens allow just 7.4 yards per QB scramble, I can't get to over 12.5 yards on Gabriel. I'll split my unit on his under on attempts and his under on yards.

Not a luck total but sched-adj expected scores make this significantly below 44.5 Definitely get 44.5 to have the key number of 44 as a win for the under.

Luck Under + DET unlucky side = PHI TT under Projecting closer to 21 and would lower if there is weather/wind