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Nick Giffen's Picks
Today
T.Tagovailoa u0.5 Int+105
MIA
@
CLE
1u
10/19 5:00 PM
Tua Tagovailoa under 0.5 INTs (+105 at MGM/365)
Might sound counterintuitive, but with 20+ mph winds forecast and even higher gusts, this is a great spot to fade interceptions, and Tua's prop offers the most value of the two QBs in this game
INT rate drops just over 20% per pass attempt in high wind games, in part from attempts being shorter on average, and also harder to catch on deeper ones
QB pass attempts also drop by almost 3 pass attempts per game in high wind games
Tua's career INT per pass attempt is 2.21% since 2022. at 30.5 pass attempts (his current line, which I'd even lean under) with a 20% drop down to 1.77%, I'd get close to a 60% chance to stay under this, before adjusting for opponent
As good as the browns defense is, they have only defended 19 passes on 169 attempts, putting them 11th worst in that department, and they've only converted 2 of those 19 into INTs which, on a per-game basis is 6th worst
We're getting plus money on a QB that's solidly favored to not throw an interception. I'd be this to -125.
122
NO +5.5-112
NO
@
CHI
1.12u
10/19 5:00 PM
147
Under 46.5-104
NO
@CHI
0.26u
10/19 5:00 PM
Small early bet
I have it 46 in normal weather but this is trending towards 15mph wind with 30mph gusts and possible rain
115
Under 42.5-108
CAR
@
NYJ
1.08u
10/19 5:00 PM
176
Over 42-110
NE
@
TEN
0.28u
10/19 5:00 PM
137
2-WAY PARLAY+13700
0.05u
Denny is locked in and can help Bubba get the win he stole from him. Can also do 250-1 at 365 or 225-1 for the "straight forecast" at caesars (which is bubba 1st denny 2nd), but this allows for denny to be 3rd also in case he's pushing bubba by another car
Bubba Wallace +2200
YellaWood 500
Denny Hamlin +500 (Top 3)
YellaWood 500
54
2-WAY PARLAY+13700
0.05u
Adding more. We're getting a highly correlated parlay at true odds.
Bubba Wallace +2200
YellaWood 500
Denny Hamlin +500 (Top 3)
YellaWood 500
36
Anthony Alfredo +600 (Top 10)
YellaWood 500
0.25u
I don't track at Hard Rock since fewer states have it, but it's 10-1 there
44
Winning Team: Team Penske+300
YellaWood 500
0.5u
I dont usually pick faves at drafting tracks but this is definitely unique circumstances.
Full explanation on Running Hot, victory lane pick.
26
Pending
NASCAR Cup Series Championship: C. Bell to Win Title+800
0.25u
#RunningHot adding more to the title position on Bell
20
K. Larson over 4.5 wins-135
1.35u
#RunningHot victory lane pick
13
Front Row Motorsports under 0.5 wins+115
1u
#RunningHot
6
NASCAR Cup Series Championship: C. Bell to Win Title+650
1u
Also available at ESPN BET
23
Lowest Scoring Team (Regular Season): NY Jets+900
1u
3rd lowest Expected Score last year
4th largest O-line downgrade (-$30m AAV per 4for4)
Jets opposing D's spent most $ of all 32 schedules
Fields/Tyrod not upgrades/likely downgrades & will run more w/Fields eating clock
5th unluckiest set of opponents from last year (opponents regression to better results)
Tankapalooza
50
Futures
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0-0-0 | 0% | 0.00u |
| Last 7 Days | 13-14-0 | 48% | 2.98u |
| Last 30 Days | 51-78-1 | 39% | 14.98u |
| All Time | 1160-2329-20 | 33% | 285.64u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 420-646-9 | 39% | 106.08u |
| NCAAB | 419-344-8 | 54% | 102.60u |
| NASCAR | 252-1185-2 | 18% | 56.07u |
| NHL | 3-1-0 | 75% | 3.57u |
| World Cup | 13-26-0 | 33% | 1.18u |
| FORMULA_ONE | 0-1-0 | 0% | -0.50u |
| NASCAR_XFINITY | 0-1-0 | 0% | -0.50u |
| Women's World Cup | 1-4-0 | 20% | -0.95u |
| MLB | 2-4-0 | 33% | -1.71u |
| European Championship | 17-49-1 | 25% | -3.47u |
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Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
I bet on my favorite driver Kyle Kirkwood at 20-1 to win the Long Beach Grand Prix. I went to the race and watched him win it in person for his first career IndyCar win. It was the first time I watched him race an IndyCar in person, so I'm officially his good luck charm.
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- NASCAR Expert
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