Nick Giffen

Breece Hall Longest Rush under 14.5 yds (-125 at DK, MGM, 365) Going back to the Breece Hall longest rush under well when Justin Fields isn't QB. With Fields the starting QB Hall cleared this in 5 of 9 games, but he's only cleared this one time in games four games where Fields wasn't the starting QB. And it gets even starker when you look at the distributions. Just one of Hall's 55 rush attempts (1.8%) from at least 15 yards from the end zone have gone for 15+ yards when it's anyone other than Fields under center compared to 14 out of 132 rush attempts (10.6%) with Fields under center. Hall faces the Jaguars who have allowed just 5 runs of 15+ yards all season that didn't come from QB scrambles, tied for the lowest in the NFL with the Seahawks and Rams. I'm generously projecting him to stay under this 60.5% of the time, but reality is probably even lower than that.

Dawson Knox under 1.5 receptions (+120 at 365, +118 at FD) In two years with Dalton Kincaid as first-look TE, Knox has averaged just 1.45 receptions in games Kincaid played. And the matchup isn't ideal here either despite the fact that Knox had two grabs against the Patriots in their first meeting this year in which Kincaid also played. In that first meeting, the Patriots played just 5% Cover 2, but since Week 7 they have been the team that plays the second-most Cover 2 in the league at 28.4%. Bills QB Josh Allen's worst efficiency has been against Cover 2, so the Patriots would be wise to deploy it at a high rate as they have done in the second half of the year. That's also bad for Knox, as he's had just 3 targets against Cover 2 since the start of 2024, which encompasses 61 total routes. I'm projecting Knox right at 1.5 receptions, but that means he's favored to stay under as that's an average projection and not a median. Sometimes he'll have 3 or even 4 grabs, but that's more than offset by the number of times he catches 0 or 1 balls. At 55.8% to stay under, that's a 10% edge at +118 odds.

Jaylin Noel Over 7.5 rec yds (-110 at B365, -115 at MGM and Hard Rock) Over 1.5 receptions (+180 at 365, +175 at Hard Rock) Noel has averaged a 37.6% route share over the last five weeks with all the Texans WRs healthy. However, that's ticked up over the past two weeks to 43.2% and 45.7%, so he may be in line to keep a higher workload. Even without that the underlying factors are good here for Noel. First, the Cardinals generate a pressure rate over expected (PrROE) at the 4th lowest rate in the league, so Texans QB C.J. Stroud shouldn't face too much pressure. His completion rate skyrockts to just above 70% from just below 50% when pressured. Fortunately for Noel, in this five game stretch only he and Xavier Hutchinson see their targets per route more than double when Stroud has a clean pocket. However, unlike Hutchinson, Noel has a positive coverage matchup, racking up almost double the efficiency against Cover 4, which the Cardinals use at the highest rate in the NFL while Hutchinson mostly does his damage against man coverage which Arizona uses only 20% of the time (11th lowest). I also like over 1.5 receptions at +180 at Bet365 or +170 at Hard Rock, but those appear to be the only options as MGM is at just +130 and isn't really any value at that price, so if you don't have 365 or Hard Rock, just roll with the yardage which is also available at MGM. If you have yardage only, 1 unit is fine, otherwise split your unit between the two at 0.6 on the yards and 0.4 on the receptions.

Jaylin Noel Over 7.5 rec yds (-110 at B365, -115 at MGM and Hard Rock) Over 1.5 receptions (+180 at 365, +175 at Hard Rock) Noel has averaged a 37.6% route share over the last five weeks with all the Texans WRs healthy. However, that's ticked up over the past two weeks to 43.2% and 45.7%, so he may be in line to keep a higher workload. Even without that the underlying factors are good here for Noel. First, the Cardinals generate a pressure rate over expected (PrROE) at the 4th lowest rate in the league, so Texans QB C.J. Stroud shouldn't face too much pressure. His completion rate skyrockts to just above 70% from just below 50% when pressured. Fortunately for Noel, in this five game stretch only he and Xavier Hutchinson see their targets per route more than double when Stroud has a clean pocket. However, unlike Hutchinson, Noel has a positive coverage matchup, racking up almost double the efficiency against Cover 4, which the Cardinals use at the highest rate in the NFL while Hutchinson mostly does his damage against man coverage which Arizona uses only 20% of the time (11th lowest). I also like over 1.5 receptions at +180 at Bet365 or +170 at Hard Rock, but those appear to be the only options as MGM is at just +130 and isn't really any value at that price, so if you don't have 365 or Hard Rock, just roll with the yardage which is also available at MGM. If you have yardage only, 1 unit is fine, otherwise split your unit between the two at 0.6 on the yards and 0.4 on the receptions.

Luck Rankings and Hurts sucks vs. zone

Tyler Shough under 22.5 rush yds (-115 at MGM) I'm showing way under this as this line is severely inflated from a 55 yard performance against Tampa Bay who allows a top-two QB adjusted scramble rate in the NFL. Shough goes from that to a bottom four matchup for scrambles, with the Panthers allowing both the fourth lowest raw QB scramble rate and the fourth lowest QB-adjusted scramble rate. A lot of that stems from the Panthers lack of pressure (31st in PrROE) and their high use of Cover 3 (2nd most), which keeps an extra man in the box in zone coverage facing the QB. When QBs do scramble against Carolina, it comes with the fourth-lowest yards per carry in the league. I'm projecting Shough for 18 with a median closer to 14.5 so there's value at every book out there.