Falcons vs. 49ers Odds & Betting Predictions - October 20, 2025

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Bates has cleared this in 3 of 5 games and I think the market is slow to catch up to the fact that he’s playing in the box at a 15% higher rate this season. That’s key against San Francisco, who are one of the best matchups for strong safeties, since Bates should mix in on everything.. CMC runs/rec, Kittle receptions, and even quick-game stuff over the middle. I’m projecting Atlanta to face 7.5 more completions than usual which helps Bates specifically. They’ve faced the fewest plays per game of any defense so far, while San Francisco leads the league in plays per game..a huge boost in opportunity by itself. Even better, 49ers scorekeepers hand out assists at the 3rd-highest rate in the league. I’m projecting around a 58% hit rate, but considering the plus odds and so many underlying factors in its favor, this is my favorite prop for SNF.

I get it’s Mac Jones with a banged up receiving group but I just can’t pass up these odds for the 49ers at home.

X: PicksOffice

Analysis on Tiktok

There is a value opportunity on Demarcus Robinson's receptions prop. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 1.09 receptions, while sportsbooks imply 1.97. The model believes there is a 70% chance he records fewer than 1.5 receptions, so there is some value on the under at +105. (This play is good down to at least -158.) Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

We just watched the Falcons win a big one Monday night against the Bills. That was an impressive performance but does mean this isn't a great spot for Atlanta, playing on short rest after such a big win for the franchise. Still, these just look like two teams headed in opposite directions. Atlanta had that weird shutout loss to Carolina but has otherwise been pretty impressive on the season, especially defensively. As for the 49ers, the record still looks good but the injury report is long and depressing. Both Brock Purdy and Mac Jones entered the week banged up, and so did receivers Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall. Purdy and Pearsall have been ruled out. Jones and Jennings will play but at less than 100%, though it does look like George Kittle returns. Even so, this team is missing its franchise QB and arguably its top two receivers — don't forget Brandon Aiyuk is still out too! But the defense is in even worse shape. It looks like both CB Renardo Green and ED Yatur Gross-Matos could miss. You may not know those names but they're probably San Francisco's top option at each spot — in part because of the cascading effect of injuries to San Francisco's two defensive superstars, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, both out for the season. San Francisco is a fringe bottom 10 defense by DVOA on the season and almost certainly even worse than those metrics would indicate, since Bosa and Warner played for much of that. The Niners are getting zero pressure on opposing quarterbacks, ranking 31st in pressure rate on the season, and Atlanta ranks lowest in pressure rate allowed. Michael Penix should have plenty of time to attack this defense. San Francisco also plays a ton of light-box defense, at 98% of its snaps by far the most in the league, typically relying on Fred Warner to clean up the back end when necessary. Atlanta ranks fourth in EPA per play against light boxes, and Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier could bust some more big plays if they face light fronts all game. On the other side of the ball, Atlanta is somewhat beatable against the run but the 49ers have not run well all season. Christian McCaffrey is seeing volume, but the 49ers rank bottom five rushing by DVOA. San Francisco will need to pass, and the Falcons lead the league in pass defense DVOA. Atlanta's small speedy pass rushers have really gotten after the opposing quarterback. The 49ers have done a great job at limiting pressure rate, but Atlanta ranks top five in pressures and the 49ers are 27th in EPA per play when under pressure. That's an area where Purdy's loss is even more significant. Purdy can move and create but Jones is much more of a statue, even more so while he plays through his own injuries. I waited on this one, hoping we might hit Atlanta +3 if the right injury news came out, but it's not going to get there with Purdy out. I'm happy to grab Atlanta +2.5 at ESPN Bet and see if the Falcons can pull off a second straight primetime upset.

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/bIlPMohsyXb

@The_Oddsmaker https://myaction.app/MsfxZEmqyXb

THE BLITZ is forecasting 13.76 rushing yards for Mac Jones. The oddsmakers' implied projection is 9.06 rushing yards, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the over, you’d be projected to win 69% of the time resulting in a 33% ROI with expected value of $35.98 (based on a $100 wager). (This play is good down to at least -151.) Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

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