49ers vs. Rams Odds & Betting Predictions - October 3, 2025

77% RZ route share, 3rd highest on team

Taking a crack on a longshot TD to pair with Bourne

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POD

Got 16.5 on show this morning

Grabbing at 18.5 but still like it at 19.5 too.

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

I’m projecting Mac closer to 34.1 attempts tonight. San Francisco is now sitting as a 7.5 to 8.5-point dog with Brock Purdy out, and their top two starting WRs already ruled out. Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are still out as well. So, yes, he’s working with second and third-string receivers, but those are actually the guys he’s thrown to the most in practice. Kendrick Bourne in particular already has chemistry with Mac from their time together in New England. They’re expected to play from behind at a much higher rate than they have been this season, which naturally pushes their playcalling in a more pass-heavy direction even with the downgraded receiver group. When Mac has been under center, the 49ers have posted a +9.6% PROE compared to -2.7% with Purdy. Probably just noise, but still a massive swing. The biggest thing working for pass attempts here is how stationary Mac is. He has scrambled once all year and is supposedly wearing a knee brace tonight, so the chances of him taking off are even lower. If he drops back and doesn’t get sacked, it’s usually going in the books as a pass attempt. He’s also throwing the ball away at a high rate this season, which is exactly the kind of empty play you want when betting this type of prop. His average depth of target is 7.0 compared to Purdy’s 7.6. That may not sound like much, but lower aDOT quarterbacks can rack up a couple of extra attempts just by checking down more often. All of these factors lead Mac to deserving a higher pass attempt prop than we would give Purdy here. One last edge that I don’t think is being priced in at all: Rams kicker Josh Karty basically mastered the new kickoff rule already. Opposing teams are starting drives at their own 21.7-yard line on average, which is dead last in the league. Longer fields equal more potential plays, which equals more dropbacks, which equals more attempts. I like the Over at 32.5 up to -140

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Pearsall/Jennings both ruled out on top of Kittle already being out, so SF are w/o almost all their weapons besides CMC who you don't want to give 25+ touches on a short week given his injury history. Bourne missed week 1 but since then has been involved even with Pearsall active and Jennings playing in 2/3. Week 2: 24 routes Week 3: 31 routes Week 4: 27 routes In those games, Bourne has recorded 32, 38, 17 yards on 3, 6, 4 TRG. W3 was the one Jennings was out and Bourne was 3rd on the team in routes/targets behind CMC and Pearsall (who's now out). The Rams have been a fairly good target to outside WR since Witherspoon went to IR: - Ridley: 57 yards on 6 TRG (best game of season) - Brown: 109 yards on 10 TRG (best game of season) - Pittman: 41 yards on 10 TRG (highest TRG of season) Bourne also has a rapport with Mac Jones already from their time in New England, which gives him a slight edge over other SF pass-catchers. Jones also started 2/3 games Bourne has been active in this season and those were the 32 and 38 yard games.

Buying low on Davante Adams here He’s seen 8, 13, 8, and 6 targets in 4 games so far but is only over this line in 1/4 games. He’s had 3 drops which is unlike him and is something I expect him to correct. Per PFF, he has struggled more so on “short (0-9)” targets (2025): • 17 targets / 7 rec / 41.2% rec% / 2 drops Here are his numbers on short targets over the past 2 seasons: 2024: 72 targets / 48 rec / 66.7 rec% 2023: 79 targets / 56 rec / 70.9% rec% I think ifs safe to say we can expect some positive regression. Fantasy Points agrees, he’s a big positive regression candidate as his expected fantasy points greatly exceeds his actual fantasy points. SF also plays a high rate of zone coverage (9th most) which is ideal for receptions. Adams has only caught 5 of 13 targets (38.5% rec%) with 3 drops vs zone this season. Last 2 seasons Adams caught 71.2% & 67% of his targets vs zone so we can expect his 2025 catch% to positively regress. Its also worth noting that PFF projects Adams matchups to look like this: 16.67 proj snaps vs Upton Stout 11.09 proj snaps vs Darrell Luter Jr. 11.09 proj snaps vs Deommodore Lenoir Stout has been the worst corner of the bunch with a below avg 48.6 pff coverage grade and 10 receptions allowed in 2025.

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