Commanders vs. Lions Odds & Betting Predictions - January 19, 2025

Commanders at Lions

1:00 am • FOX

Washington Commanders

0-1

45 - 31

Detroit Lions

1-1

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Commanders 0-1	+10	+8-110	o55.5-112	+387
Lions 1-1	u54.5	-8-110	u55.5-108	-517

Sunday 1:00 a.m.

January 19, 2025

Ford FieldDetroit

DET +3.5 (Live)-120

1.2u

DET +158 (Live)

1.1u

T.Patrick o4.5 Rec Yds (Live)-115

0.87u

DET +3.5 (Live)-115

DET +120 (Live)

America’s team

DET -3.5 (Live)-110

1.1u

Under 27.5 (1H)-110

D.Brown o2.5 Recs-160

0.63u

WAS +8.5-105

0.95u

A.St. Brown o6.5 Recs-114

D.Montgomery o12.5 Longest Rush-105

2.1u

J.Daniels o55.5 Rush Yds-120

1.2u

DET o32.5 Team Total-112

0.5u

DraftKings

WAS +8.5-105

2.86u

DET -6 (1H)-105

0.5u

Caesars

DET -8-110

0.5u

Caesars

J.Daniels Anytime TD Scorer Yes+155

J.Gibbs o12.5 Longest Reception-120

0.83u

J.Gibbs o19.5 Longest Rush-132

0.76u

Over 55-110

0.25u

55 only not 55.5

WAS +400

DET -8.5-111

J.Goff u0.5 Int-150

1.5u

J.Gibbs o14.5 Rush Att-115

1.15u

DET o32.5 Team Total-115

1.15u

DET -8.5-110

0.5u

J.Daniels o55.5 Rush Yds-110

J. Daniels ⬆️ 55.5 Rushing Yards (-110 @ FanDuel) THE BLITZ 📽️: 64.83 RushY Daniels has been the most consistent runner in the WSH backfield of late. Robinson, the primary running back, just has gotten the job done of late: vs TB: 10 carries for 16 yards vs DAL: 5 for 10 vs ATL: 13 for 60 vs PHI: 10 for 24 Overall, these are really poor rushing numbers. Adding Ekeler back is nice, but he's primarily a pass catching back at this point in his career. If we toss out the DAL game where Daniels only played a part of it, he cleared this mark in the three games prior and 4 of the last 5. That includes a 127 yard rushing performance vs ATL. Daniels wasn't particularly effective in his first playoff game as a runner, but there is a stark difference between last week's defensive scheme and this week's. Tampa Bay run zone coverage at the highest rate in the NFL this season (79.9%). Meanwhile, DET run man coverage at the highest rate this season (44.9%). This is important as a running QB, bc rushing QB's have more success vs man coverage than zone. Why? Well, zone coverage focuses on the eyes of the QB, where as man focuses on the player they are guarding. If defenders are focusing on their covered man, they likely don't have eyes on the QB, which tends to open up rushing lanes and opportunities. Overall this looks like a nice opportunity for Daniel's to shine with his legs as WSH is more likely to be playing in a negative game script playing catch up.

DET -8.5-110

1.1u

B.Robinson u10.5 Longest Rush-110

Under 55.5-110

0.75u

Over 55.5-110

WAS +10-114

WAS +9-110

1.36u

Over 55.5-110

0.91u

WAS +400

WAS o23.5 Team Total-120

J.Gibbs o109.5 Rush + Rec Yds-125

WAS +400

WAS +9.5-113

2.5u

S.LaPorta Anytime TD Scorer Yes+155

1.55u

@TheBMatt

Z.Ertz Anytime TD Scorer Yes+300

@GDAWG5000

WAS +9.5-110

0.23u

J.Goff u275.5 Pass Yds-110

D.Brown o33.5 Rec Yds-110

0.91u

@The_Oddsmaker

WAS +9.5-115

0.87u

@SimonHunterNFL

J.Bates u0.5 Rec Yds-125

@ChrisRaybon

J.Daniels u10.5 Rush Att-125

J.Bates u0.5 Rec Yds-120

0.6u

#Tailing @ChrisRaybon

D.Brown o33.5 Rec Yds-110

0.25u

J.Bates u0.5 Rec Yds-120

D.Brown o33.5 Rec Yds-110

0.5u

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

D.Brown o33.5 Rec Yds-110

Over 55.5-110

0.91u

DET o32.5 Team Total-112

1.12u

T.McLaurin o68.5 Rec Yds-110

0.91u

S.LaPorta o48.5 Rec Yds-110

Stuckey 1

WAS +9.5-110

Simon Says

B.Robinson u11.5 Longest Rush-130

DraftKings

J.Gibbs o14.5 Rush Att-115

1.15u

Freddie

WAS +10-115

DET -8.5-110

DET o32.5 Team Total-115

1.15u

S.LaPorta o48.5 Rec Yds-113

0.25u

Under 55.5-110

0.75u

T.McLaurin o68.5 Rec Yds-115

J.Gibbs o83.5 Rush Yds-114

DET o32.5 Team Total-115

Best Bet (12-6-1 YTD)

D.Montgomery First Touchdown Scorer+550

0.5u

Montgomery practiced in full and wasn't on the final injury report. He traditionally plays the first series for the Lions, which is how he scored the first touchdown in 6 of 14 games this year. I think sportsbooks are under-accounting for the order in which the Lions use their backs, leading to value in this specific market.

B.Robinson o8.5 Rec Yds-115

Ran more routes than Austin Ekeler last week (17 to 13) and turned 5 targets into 22 yards. Has gone over 8.5 receiving yards in 4 of 7 full games with Ekeler even though he sat most of the second half in two of those (a blowout win in one, and they were playing for just seeding in Week 18).

J.Daniels o54.5 Rush Yds-113

Has gone over this in 4 of 6 full games since he got healthier off the rib injury. The Lions let up the most Rushing EPA to quarterbacks of any playoff team during the regular season.

Z.Gonzalez u1.5 FGs Made-130

PTP play

A.Ekeler 40+ Receiving Yards Yes+300

0.75u

TAN pod / best bets — Ekeler escalator, skip the median outcomes

A.Ekeler 50+ Receiving Yards Yes+525

0.25u

TAN pod / best bets — Ekeler escalator, skip the median outcomes

WAS +9.5-110

0.91u

TAN pod / best bets

WAS +410

0.41u

Prefer Wash by 1-6 +600 but logging here to make sure you see the pick: Commanders can win this.

Z.Ertz Anytime TD Scorer Yes+300

T.McLaurin o69.5 Rec Yds-112

DET o32.5 Team Total-115

1.15u

O.Zaccheaus o3.5 Recs+148

0.3u

4.81% ev bet to +137

Over 55.5-105

J.Daniels o9.5 Rush Att-115

A.Ekeler o23.5 Rec Yds-110

J.Williams o23.5 Longest Reception-115

1.15u

J.Williams Anytime TD Scorer Yes+122

1.22u

Z.Ertz o3.5 Recs-102

J.Gibbs o82 Rush Yds-115

2.61u

J.Gibbs Anytime TD Scorer Yes-251

DET -9.5-110

J.Goff u0.5 Int-135

1.5u

J.Gibbs o17.5 Longest Rush-125

S.LaPorta o47.5 Rec Yds-114

0.18u

Over 55.5-108

0.93u

Highest total I've ever projected by a good amount. I have it at 58.3. No precedent for whether this is a good bet, but I'm fine with it.

Over 55.5+100

Read full writeup: https://x.com/PicksOffice

DET -8.5-110

Read full writeup: https://x.com/PicksOffice

J.Goff u33.5 Pass Att+100

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NFL Public Betting

Lions are 0-1 in their last 5 games.
Lions are 0-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Lions are 7-1 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Lions' last 1 games
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Lions' 1 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Lions	0-1	0-1	7-1	0-1	1-0
Commanders	2-1	7-2	2-1	7-4	2-1

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Lions	1-0	1-0	4-4	1-0	1-0
Commanders	2-1	6-3	2-1	6-5	2-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Lions	0-1	N/A	8-0	0-1	1-0
Commanders	2-1	7-2	N/A	9-2	2-1

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jan 6th	MIN	W 31-9	-3 W	U 56.5	DET -156
Dec 31st	@SF	W 40-34	-4 W	O 50.5	DET -222
Dec 22nd	@CHI	W 34-17	-7 W	O 47.5	DET -342
Dec 15th	BUF	L 42-48	-2.5 L	O 55.5	BUF -148
Dec 6th	GB	W 34-31	-3 L	O 53	DET -170

Antonio Hamilton
CB
Hamilton is out with quad
Out

Essang Bassey
CB
Bassey is questionable with concussion
Questionable

See more NFL Injuries

Commanders

Total

Lions

481

Total Yards

521

Total Plays

6.6

Yards Per Play

7.7

Commanders

Passing

Lions

299

YDS

336

22/31

Comps/Atts

25/43

9.645

YPA

7.111

2/0

TDs/INTs

1/4

0/0

Sacks/Yards

2/16

Commanders

Rushing

Lions

182

Rush Yards

201

Attempts

4.333

YPC

8.739

TDs

Commanders

Turnovers

Lions

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Commanders

Efficiency

Lions

4/4 100%

Redzone

3/6 50%

4/12 0%

3rd Down

3/9 0%

3/4 0%

4th Down

2/2 0%

Commanders

First Downs

Lions

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Commanders

Misc

Lions

4/25

Penalties/Yards

5/30

33:59

Possession

26:01

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MatchupOverUnder
Commanders 0-1	o23.5-108	u23.5-112
Lions 1-1	o33.5-108	u33.5-112

Commanders vs. Lions Odds & Betting Predictions - January 19, 2025

Commanders at Lions

Washington Commanders

Detroit Lions

Commanders at Lions Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

Commanders vs. Lions Previews & Analysis

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Commanders vs. Lions Predictions: Don't Stop Betting on Detroit

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Commanders vs. Lions Props

Prop Projections

Prop Odds Comparison

Line Movement Tracker

Commanders vs. Lions Public Betting Percentages

Commanders

Public

Lions

Bets%

Money%

Betting Trends

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

Over/Under History

Straight-Up (ML) History

Last 5 Matchups

Commanders vs. Lions Injury Updates

Commanders Injuries

Lions Injuries

Commanders vs. Lions Odds Comparison

Commanders at Lions Team Totals