Seahawks vs. Jaguars Odds & Betting Predictions - October 12, 2025

Action Playbook LIVE

Tailing @nick_giffen

Action Playbook LIVE

Tailing @nick_giffen

X: @PicksOffice

Have his median closer to 16 with around a 59% chance to clear 12.5. If/when his prop gets closer to 15.5 I would pivot to his alt overs to tap into his upside vs. his median prop. He’s just missed on a couple big plays in his limited role so far, but carries more upside than your typical backup TE. He gives me former “backup TE” Aaron Hernandez vibes (talent wise, not personality)

Jacksonville is coming off a huge win Monday night, one of its biggest in recent franchise history. That's great for the Jaguars but also makes this an obvious letdown spot after such an emotional comeback win, especially on short rest. Jacksonville was lucky to get that win, needing a late stumbling, bumbling touchdown even after a 99-yard pick-6 that was effectively a 14-point swing for the Jags. Jacksonville's defense made the big play but was mostly miserable, allowing the Chiefs offense to hit 64% Success Rate, a top 100 percentile outcome, and move the ball at will. Now it faces a Seattle offense that nearly matched that last week in an incredible performance against the Bucs, undone by a couple mistakes. Jacksonville has the better record, but Seattle is the better team and should be favored here, and the Seahawks might be by kickoff, as this line floats around a pick'em. Seattle ranks second in DVOA on the season. It's not super surprising to see the Seahawks 7th on defense or first in special teams, but the offense has been shocking. Sam Darnold has been a revelation for the league's No. 1 passing offense, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba has broken out as a true star WR1 and sleeper OPOY contender. The Jaguars traded this week for Browns CB Greg Newsome. Could he immediately get the JSN assignment? Yikes. Neither of these defenses really covered themselves in glory last week. Seattle's pass defense got shredded, dropping from 2nd to 15th in DVOA, but faced a much better passing attack and a bunch of secondary injuries. A healthier unit should be able to hold up better against what's really been the most disappointing part of the Jaguars thus far, Trevor Lawrence and the unreliable passing game. Jacksonville's defense also saw its metrics fall way off last week, from top three to around league average, and from top to bottom 10 against the run. The Jaguars do get Travon Walker back this week but the defense has been over reliant on huge turnover swings, getting beaten on a down-to-down basis. I like Jacksonville — I just like Seattle better. In Weeks 6 and 7, underdogs of a touchdown or less against teams with an elite ATS record of 80-to-99% are an awesome 41-16-1 ATS, covering 72% of the time by about five points a game. Seattle is also a Luck Rankings side. Grab Seahawks +1.5 or the best number available, and switch to the moneyline if you must. I prefer the +1.5 since both coaches are aggressive and it wouldn't be surprising to see a two-point conversion decide this one. If you do like Seattle here, this is also a great opportunity to invest in Seahawks futures. Seattle is top five in my power ratings. The Seahawks have a top-five defense when healthy, a top-five coaching staff, and the league's best special teams. If the offense continues to play as a top-10 unit too, Seattle could be a great pick to win the NFC West at +500 (DraftKings). It's a great opportunity to fade the injury-riddled 4-1 49ers, underdogs this week in Tampa Bay. This looks like a three-horse race with the Rams in the mix too, and FTN projects all three teams between 10.3 and 10.7 wins and between 26 and 38% to win the division. Seattle is lowest of the three but not by much, and that 26% opportunity implies under +300 and will only get better with a win in Jacksonville.

Bhayshul Tuten longest rush under 8.5 yards (-125 at B365, -130 DK/MGM) Tuten has one carry over 8.5 yards this year on 24 attempts from at least 9 yards away from the end zone He now faces the NFL's second stingiest run defense by DVOA and yards per carry in Seattle who has allowed a run of 9+ yards on non-scrambles just 12.1% of the time, lower than the 14.7% league average. Even worse for Tuten, 19 of his 25 overall carries have come on zone concept runs, of which the Seahawks allow the second-lowest success rate and lowest YPC Also, more than half of Tuten's carries have gone up the middle, which is the stingiest part of the Seahawks run defense, allowing less than 3 yards per carry with just 2 of 26 runs up the middle going for 9+ yards, both of which were to Christian McCaffrey. At 5.5 projected carries, I'm showing strong value on Tuten staying under 8.5 yards longest rush I'd play this down to -150

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Hunter Long over 0.5 1Q Rec Yds (+103 at DK, +100 at FD) Jacksonville is more likely to start with the ball here, as Liam Coen has decided to receive half the time the Jaguars have won the coin toss, while Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald has always deferred during his two years as head coach. Long was the receiving TE replacement for Brenton Strange after he went down with an injury vs. KC, and projects to run route on more than 60% of QB Trevor Lawrences dropbacks this weekend Strange was targeted early quite frequently, garnering 8 of his 24 full-game targets (33.3%) and 6 of his 19 full-game receptions in the 1st quarter (31.6%), we can likely expect Long to have a target or two as well. Seattle has struggled a bit vs. the TE position, allowing the third most targets per game and the eighth most yards per game to the position The Seahawks boast the No. 2 rush defense by defensive DVOA, which should force Jacksonville into a few more long yardage situations, likely necessitating a higher 1st quarter passing rate overall than the Jaguars have been using. Long's receiving yardage prop is anywhere from 22.5 to 26.5, so just needing one yard when the Jaguars are more likely to start with the ball and Strange was getting plenty of early targets is a very low bar to clear. I'd play this to -130, over 1.5 yards at -120, and over 2.5 yards at -110

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Seahawks' offense has been much more efficient than expected this year, and the defense should be healthier now than it was for last week's shootout with the Bucs.

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