Jets vs. Vikings Odds & Betting Predictions - October 6, 2024

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@roloheaux

🔑 Jets ML +120 (DraftKings) 2u Time for a morning sweat. I love this spot for the Jets here. Vikings are due for a clunker and I’m expecting a big bounce back from the Jets. Big money and sharp money coming in on the Jets. Let’s get some early morning Ws mates!

Geezer Rodgers has been throwing too much

#ProSystem Windy Overall: 560-390-8,59% (ROI:14%) Season:6-5-0,55% (ROI:4%)

🔬Jones is becoming the work horse in this offense getting 19 & 22 attempts the last 2 games and now gets a jets d with Great pass defense 🔬vs the jets this season - Javonte 16, Pollard 17, Mason 28 attempts 🔬Teams want to get in and out of London quickly with a win, last season in london games - Etienne 20, bijan/allgier combined for 21, Etienne 26, Gus Edwards 16, Henry 12 (for 97 and a touchdown in a loss with a poor team)

The tempo of this game could be on the slow side, and both teams feature strong running back by committee backfields paired with QBs who either historically or recently operate efficiently on sustained drives. Sims like the under here with a little bit of a pass lean to attack this tougher defenses.

Giving out on Prop Drop

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Should be -110

@charliedisturco

Reichard was a sixth-round draft pick in the 2023 NFL Draft from Alabama. In college, he went 22-25 (88%) on field goals attempted, including 5-for-5 on 50+ yards attempts. He was named the SEC Special Teams Player of the Year and was ranked as the #1 kicker coming out of Hoover High School. In the NFL, he’s continued excellence drilling 6-6 FGM with a long of 58 yards thru four games. If you’re unfamiliar on why I’m targeting a kicker prop, let me explain again. **Since 2023, opposing team’s kickers that are favorites vs. the Jets have attempted at least two field goals in 11 of the 12 games**. And it makes sense as to why.. These teams are in winning/neutral game scripts are likely to kick a field goal than go for it on 4th especially if they have good enough talent to drive towards the end zone. The Jets are only allowing teams to score in the red zone at a 36% rate (fourth-lowest) and backed by their star duos of Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed, it’s more likely they stall a team thru the air than not. Looking at opposing teams vs. the Jets: Moody (SF) attempted 5, Lutz (DEN) attempted 2, Folk (TEN) attempted 1 but Levis lost a fumble on goal-line, and Slye (NE) attempted 1 in a trailing script. Vikings are scoring at the eight-highest rate with 4+ TD in 3 of 4 games, but against NYJ I expect that to regress and Reichard to be active and continue the system trend. #PlayerProps

Weekly QB INT Picks. Article coming shortly.

FanDuel

This is a crazy line for Mike Will especially with him seeming to be back to 100%. Last game he ran a season-high 34 routes 68.5% snap share on passing plays. He's covered this line in 3/3 games this season when recording a catch - 19, 18, 22. He's AVG a 12.9 ADOT (#19 in NFL) but last week he AVG a 15.8 ADOT on 5 targets. MIN run zone coverage at the #2 highest rate in the league and Williams is AVG a 19.5 ADOT vs. zone coverage - good rule of thumb to take a guys longest reception when the average ADOT is higher than the line. Outside WR have crushed this number vs. MIN: - Nabers: 25 LR - Slayton: 11 LR - Aiyuk: 22 LR - Deebo: 28 LR - Nico: 34 LR - Dell: 19 LR - Doubs: 20 LR - Wicks: 36 LR 7/8 outside WR covered this specific line vs. MIN and 6/8 recorded a 20+ yard catch.

Will pay to see this lose @roloheaux @RoyalsProps

Another Star WR who has struggled out of the gate. Partly due to tough matchups, Sneed, Gonzales, and Surtain. Targets remain strong, has seen 11,6,9,8 in each game and I’m expecting them to connect this game. Vikings run Zone coverage at the highest rate which Aaron Rodgers has been dominant against his entire career. Wilson leads the team in targets (18) vs zone but only 79 yards which I see increasing on Sunday. WRs have had their way with this secondary: Reed 139, Wicks 78, Deebo 110, Diggs 94, Nico 86. Nabers also had 66 yards going over this line as well. Expecting the Jets to be trailing at some point with how hot the Vikings have started each game. Wilson has voiced his frustration with the scheme and production, Jets will have something up their sleeve after an embarrassing loss. Banking on the breakout this week

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Coming off games with 5 catches on 6 targets and 4 catches on 8 targets. Minnesota’s scheme is to apply pressure via the blitz and force throws into the flat/checkdowns. They have the second highest blitz rate and the second highest pressure rate (the Broncos scheme similarly - Conklin had 8 targets against them). Minnesota has allowed 22 TE catches on 32 targets (both top 6).

Pickem

#tailing @wheatonbrando for lookahead

Week 5 Lookahead