49ers vs. Vikings Odds & Betting Predictions - September 15, 2024

Milk this

@GDAWG5000

Last bet in, ultimately swayed by drop in number and trends favoring Shanahan vs trends favoring dogs in this spot.

#ProSystem … week 2/3 undefeated take home team Overall: 41-20-1,67% (ROI:29%) Season:0-1-0,0% (ROI:-100%)

@The_Oddsmaker

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-player-prop-bets-deebo-samuel-dk-metcalf-week-2-picks?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nickgiffen

TOUCHDOWN SHOW SPICY BET NO.2🌶️

Bynum was a force in the Vikings secondary last season, averaging 8 combined tackles per game and clearing this line in 13/17 (the first in Brian Flores’ blitz heavy scheme). Only 4 tackles vs the giants, but that’s more because the giants offense did not get the ball down the field at all. The 49ers definitely should - they lead the league in safety tackles allowed last season (PFF data), and are coming off a game where Jets safeties went for 21 tackles. Harrison Smith is banged up, which doesn’t affect Bynum’s role, but could take another capable tackler out of the backend. Bynum went for 9 in this matchup last season, despite the Vikings dominating TOP, something I don’t expect this week.

-Purdy is 21-5 in his career, but 0-1 vs MIN, after losing in Minnesota last year. He threw 2 interceptions, and relied on 2 TD’s from CMC, and still lost. Jefferson didn’t play in that game. Now CMC is out, and Jefferson is in -Sam Darnold also has a chance to beat the QB he used to backup, so I like the narrative in this game for the Vikings as well

Fliff

SF TT escalator

We’re projecting 23 to 24 completions in our modeling this week, and it seems we think the 49ers will throw it more often than the market does. I don’t want to make this one more complicated than it needs to be… we believe in a data driven approach and if our assumptions are correct this a bet that wins more than it loses. #PropBet

Over in 15 of 19 games last season. Coming off a 231 performance in Week 1 against arguably the best secondary in the league vs. the Jets. Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuels were defended by Sauce Gaurdner and DJ Reed and RB Jordan Mason ran for 147 yards against a Jets squad that couldn’t stop the run. With a full week for the team to gain more reps (specially Brandon Aiyuk) this should be a more inviting matchup thru the air vs. the Vikings. Under defensive coordinator Brian Flores exoctic blitz-heavy defense, this is where I expect him to shine. In 2023, Purdy had the highest yards/attempts (9.3) amongst QBs vs blitz including a 277 yard performance vs. them without Deebo Samuels. Continuing the trend, he had 310 yards vs. NYG in a 30-12 win last season (who ranked 2nd most in Blitz%) and 333 yards vs. TB (who ranked 3rd most in Blitz%). Christian McCaffrey’s status is still up in the air but this certainly won’t be a matchup where either him or Jordan Mason can run loose. Last year, MIN permitted the seventh-fewest RB YPC + have since upgraded their front seven with rookie LB Dallas Turner and LB Ivan Pace Jr., who are excellent tacklers in the ground game. Finally, Purdy himself excels in zone coverage over man, where he can carve up defenses and meets a Vikings unit ranked 3rd in zone coverage rate along with PFF giving their secondary a 27th ranked grading in the offseason. #PlayerProps

… under when home team big dog Overall: 164-97-3,63% (ROI:21%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%)