Seahawks vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Predictions - February 8, 2026

what's a good Super Bowl without a Gatorade bath at the end?! Most books these days allow you to bet on the color of Gatorade dumped on the winning coach, and if you're betting the Super Bowl, you gotta have a little fun with the novelty bets. Orange appears to be the favorite at many books, but we haven't seen Orange cash in any of the last five Super Bowls. It did hit in Seattle's last Super Bowl victory back in 2014, and that appears to be why it's the favorite. Blue was the color in the last two New England Super Bowl victories, though, and Blue has hit in three of the last seven Super Bowls. Both teams also wear blue, so this feels like a bet that could hit for either side. So for one final pick to end the season, let's end it in style: Blue Gatorade at +290 (FanDuel).

If we like Seattle's offense just enough against New England's defense and love the matchup on the other side of the ball, that should be enough to make the side clear. But if it's not, Seattle has a few other advantages too. Like usual, special teams should be a huge advantage for the Seahawks. The Patriots are actually the only team that ranked better by DVOA on punt returns this season — Marcus Jones and Rashid Shaheed rank first and second all-time in yards per punt return at the moment — but New England was below average or bad at every other facet of special teams, notably including its own punting and coverage. Seattle is good to great at every facet of special teams. The Seahawks are the best team in the league at kickoffs, both kicking and covering. All those little special teams edges may not seem like much, but when Seattle consistently starts its possessions 10 yards ahead of where New England starts, that's like a free first down on every possession. It adds up in a hurry! The Seahawks also have a significant rest and health advantage. Unlike Seattle, the Patriots didn't get a bye week. Instead, New England has played three close, tough games, two of them in difficult outdoor conditions. The Seahawks had that first week of the playoffs off to heal and will also have a massive preparation advantage. Seattle has faced only one new opponent since Week 15. This coaching staff has had plenty of time to self scout and get ready for every facet of the Patriots. That rest advantage also leads to health advantage. Drake Maye's shoulder concern has been a story for two weeks, and New England also has key injuries to guys like Robert Spillane and Harold Landry in defense. And as much as the scheduling thing has been overblown — whoever you beat, you're here now — it does matter. New England played 11 of its 17 regular season games against an opponent that'll have a new head coach next season, plus two more against the Jets and three others against the woebegone NFC South. Seattle, on the other hand, already has an NFL-record six wins against teams that won 12+ games this season, and they can add to that record with a victory here. Seattle is battle-tested time and again against big time opponents. That will matter in the game's biggest moments. New England actually has the better record on the season, thanks to having to play in the opening round, but teams with the better winning percentage are an awful 1-17 against the spread (ATS) in the Super Bowl since 2003 — and the one cover was the Patriots team that first trailed 28-3. The Patriots also failed to cover in the Conference Championship, showing some vulnerability, and that doesn't happen often. Since 1970, teams that fail to cover in the Conference Championship are 2-11-1 ATS in the Super Bowl. I grabbed Seattle -3.5 at open but it's been stubbornly stuck at -4.5 since. That's a hefty line as well as Super Bowl underdogs have played in recent years, and New England hasn't lost by more than a touchdown all season. But Super Bowl winners cover. They're 50-7-2 ATS, an awesome 88% cover rate, that that includes 31-1 ATS with a spread of six or less. New England's three playoff wins have mostly felt like an opponent beating itself. Seattle is the better team and the Seahawks control their destiny. Either Seattle will win or Darnold and the Seahawks will beat themselves. I'm not investing too heavily in a side when there are better ways to play it, but if you're playing, it's Seattle -4.5 or nothing.

📚Onyx

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Realized I would be absolutely sick if a defensive touchdown escalator hit in the Super Bowl and I hadn’t bet it. We’ve had teams score 2 and 3 defensive touchdowns in 59 Super Bowls, so about 1/30 historically… Why not??

QUICKSLIP --> https://bit.ly/NickSGP - Barner over 0.5 rush yds - Henderson over 0.5 rec - Maye under 5.5 1Q rush yds - Barner 2H TD

Drive 1 result parlay: NE punt & Maye 5+ rush yards, 8:1 on FD from @IrishDad321 on Twitter!

60 at DK MGM CZR all fine Circa has 62

Simple life hack: if @JoeDellera gives you an NBA pick, you bet it.

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Got a great number earlier this week

NoVig

Draftkings TD jackpot

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Walker's receiving numbers are way up in his last 10 games — 2.7 catches for 27.8 yards on 3.1 targets. That may not seem like much, but compare that to 1.2 receptions for 9.2 yards on 1.3 targets before that and you see the receptions and targets double and yardage triple! We played and hit Walker as a receiver against the 49ers, and now he's getting even more time on the field with Charbonnet out. We've also been playing RB receptions against New England, because the Patriots are top five in most RB receptions allowed. This season, 12 opposing RBs have at least three catches against New England. Walker has 3+ catches in seven of his last 10 games, so bet Walker over 2.5 receptions (-120, Fanatics). In those seven games with 3+ receptions, Walker averages 39 YPG, and he has 29+ yards in all but one of them. The Patriots have allowed 29+ yards to a RB seven times this season themselves. Add a small yardage escalator for Walker at 30+ receiving yards for +160 (bet365).

Action Instagram channel best bet for Sunday (getting this out early) - let’s ride 🚀

Write up coming shortly

Via @nick_giffen

I'm not investing in too many Patriots in this one, but I do expect Hunter Henry to have a nice night. Since Week 8, no non-Rams wideout has cleared 50 yards against Seattle's secondary, so opposing RB and TE targets are piling up. On the season, Seattle opponents have a healthy 24% target rate to tight ends, and the Seahawks are top six in most receptions and yards allowed to tight ends. Seven opposing TEs have already caught at least six passes against Seattle. New England probably won't hit too many deep passes and likely won't run much, but it should find some success on shorter passes — and that's where Henry can rack up some looks. He has only six catches in three playoff games, but those games were heavily game script and weather impacted. Henry had at least four catches in just over half his regular season games, but over 3.5 receptions is juiced to -140 and that's a bit much. But when Henry gets the volume, the yards are there too — and sometimes the yardage is there even without the receptions. Henry had only two games this season with 4+ receptions but under 45 yards, but he had four other games with under four catches where he still hit 39+ yards. Henry has 39+ yards in 11-of-20 games (55%), and Seattle has allowed 39+ to a TE in 10 regular season games along with both playoff games. Let's build ourselves a little Hunter Henry escalator. Start with the traditional over 39.5 yards at +105 (Caesars), then place a good portion of your bet on 50+ yards at +155 (bet365). Henry has 49+ yards eight times this season, and Seattle has allowed that number 10 times, including both playoff games. Sprinkle a small touch on 80+ yards at +630 (FanDuel), a number Henry has topped twice and Seattle has allowed four times.

FULL SUPERBOWL SLATE LINK ABOVE⬆️

Seattle's offense was awesome early in the season but faded hard from Week 11 through the end of the regular season. That was the first matchup against the Rams, when L.A. was the first opponent to make a point of playing Seattle for its early passing tendencies out of heavy instead of matching heavy bodies like-for-like, giving Seattle big bodies to pass against. Before Week 11, the Seahawks led the league in Passing DVOA. From Week 11 onward, they plummeted all the way to 25th, bottom quarter of the league. The rushing attack improved from 21st to 6th in that same stretch, but defenses were fine with that! The entire point was to limit Seattle's downfield passing and bait the run. Of course, Seattle's offense was suddenly much better again in two playoff games. Did the Seahawks counter the counter during their bye week and find some answers? That's hard to tell in a small sample, but it also came against two reeling defenses. If you're going to build a script for a Seahawks loss, there's little question you start with Sam Darnold. Maybe Darnold just isn't good enough in the biggest game of his life. Maybe the ghosts return. For all its dominance, Seattle actually had the second-most giveaways in the regular season with 28, including nine games — over half of them — with multiple turnovers. The Seahawks have no turnovers in the last three games — two playoff matchups and one for the 1-seed. Did Seattle solve its problem, or is that just luck? Either way, it's hard to see Seattle losing if the Seahawks don't turn it over. But that volatility makes Seattle unpredictable. New England's defense is also tough to figure out. Suddenly, the Patriots look almost as good defensively in the playoffs as the Seahawks. After cratering against the run down the stretch of the regular season, they've rebounded to an elite 2.4 yards per carry against the run in the playoffs. The pass defense also started bottom five by DVOA the first half of the season but has gotten progressively better since. So what do we make of this sudden small-sample leap to elite defense? Milton Williams is healthy and a big boost, but is he that much of a difference-maker? Christian Gonzalez was hurt early, but has he really taken that much of a leap? Is defensive play caller Zak Kuhr just on that much of a heater? Again, there are reasons to doubt. Weighted DVOA reflects the ginormous leap New England's defense has taken the last couple months, but it may be lying to us. In its last six games, New England has faced four backup quarterbacks, three of them third stringers. This elite playoff stretch has also included two bad weather games as well as two against horrendous offensive lines. The Patriots faced only two quarterbacks the entire regular season that rank in the consensus top half of the league. This unit just hasn't been tested much, and though Seattle's offense is hardly elite, it may well be New England's biggest defensive test all season. Only Buffalo ranks higher by Offensive DVOA, and the Patriots gave up 55 points in those two games. There's been a lot of hype for Williams and Christian Barmore on the interior, along with Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis at corner, but the second name in each of those duos has a serious weakness. Barmore is great as a pass rusher but ranks 133rd of 134 interior defenders against the run at PFF. Davis gambles too often and gets beat in man coverage; he's also susceptible to pass-interference calls. Jaxon Smith-Njigba will relish every opportunity he gets against Davis — we'll get back to that below — and New England's defense also ranks dead last in red zone DVOA on the season. New England's defense has real weak points, but it does have some real matchup advantages. The run defense looks great, and Seattle has the lowest neutral pass rate in the NFL. New England plays a heap of light box defense and won't get baited into heavy coverage but can limit all those Seahawks runs anyway and slow down the game. That's a good script for the underdog. The Seahawks are heavily reliant on their play-action passing, with Darnold ranked 1st in play-action passing by DVOA, but the Patriots have ranked near the top of the league defending play action all season. New England's defensive scheme is a pretty good matchup for Klint Kubiak's offense on paper, with one exception. The Patriots play the 9th most man coverage, and Darnold has been far better against man than zone this season; Smith-Njigba also torches man coverage. Seattle's offensive line could be its weak link, too, particularly on the interior. RG Anthony Bradford and perhaps C Jalen Sundell could be an issue on the interior against the Patriots' star defensive linemen. The Seahawks have enough firepower to find some answers offensively, but it's imperative they stay on the front foot. Seattle leads the league in first-down passing by DVOA but drops all the way to 25th on third down. When Darnold gets put into passing downs, his play falls off dramatically and has for his entire career. When the defense has to play both run and pass, he prospers. New England's defense has been exactly the opposite this season. The Patriots are stout on the money downs but leaky on early downs, below average in many metrics. If the Patriots can get Seattle to third-and-long, they can win. But will Seattle even get there? The Seahawks offense has been far better early in each half, top six in DVOA in the first and third quarters but below average in the second and fourth. That's an offense that's at its best on Kubiak's script, with a QB following a well-prepared gameplan. That's held true in these last three Seattle games. Seattle had a touchdown and a field goal on its first two drives against the Rams in the NFC Championship Game. It had a field goal and a touchdown on its first two drives against the 49ers in the Divisional Round (not counting the opening kickoff return TD), and it had a touchdown and a 66-play drive that ended on a turnover on downs against the Niners in the regular season finale. Seattle's offense has been at its best early in these games — and that could be trouble for a Patriots defense that's been at its worst in the first quarter. New England ranks 30th in first quarter DVOA defensively, and that's played out in the playoffs, too. The Chargers got to the 2- and 5-yard line on their first three drives. They only got three points out of that, but those were their only points of the game. The Texans got to the 1-yard line on their second drive, settling for a field goal, then scored their only touchdown four plays into the second quarter. The Broncos scored a touchdown on their second drive, then turned it over on downs in the red zone the next possession. In all three playoff games, New England's defense has been at its most vulnerable early. The Patriots have only allowed 26 points all postseason — 20 of them came on those early drives. It's probably not worth much considering all the players and coaches are different, but it could also be worth noting that New England has scored just three points total in nine Super Bowl first quarters this century. If you want to bet Seattle 1Q -0.5 at +105 (DraftKings), that makes sense. I like Seattle early. But first-quarter bets can be finicky since there's no urgency at the end of the quarter and since we don't know who gets the ball first. My favorite way to invest in the Seahawks is Seattle to score first and win the game at +125 (Circa). If Seattle's offense is bad early or falls behind, that's not a script I'm going to feel great about anyway with Darnold. I want this team playing on its front foot, like it has so much of the season. Seattle is a perfect 11-0 when scoring first this season, the only unbeaten team in the league, and the Seahawks have scored first in five straight games. If they make it six, this thing could be a wrap early.

Boost

Have the full game spread closer to SEA -5, so pretty much in line with the market. Like getting the Pats at a key number for the 1H here at -120. Seattle winning the 1H by exactly 3 is probably the most likely outcome, so I wouldn’t recommend NE +2.5. Pats went a league-best 14-5-1 ATS in the 1H and typically get off to better starts than expected. Spillane trending toward playing helps and Emmanwori’s late-week ankle injury is a bit of an unknown, but if he’s less than 100% it could throw off Seattle’s game plan early enough to matter for the 1H market. Pats are sneaky at +3.5 for the 1H.

At DK under Super Bowl MVP tab and scroll down Given on @Stuckey2 's 1k Challenge

Smith-Njigba's receptions line of 6.5 is badly mispriced and worth a play, even juiced to -139 (DraftKings). It's probably a full reception too low since he has 8+ catches in 10-of-13 non-blowout games. The alternate line of 8+ catches is worth a play at +130 (Fanatics). But what if Smith-Njigba has an even bigger game? He's racked up 123+ receiving yards seven times this season and has seven games with exactly eight catches and a few others with nine or 10. You could play an alternate yardage line like 120 yards for +210, but is that really worth it? If he really does rack up eight catches for 120+ yards, we should be dreaming about a much bigger target: Super Bowl MVP. I already bet Smith-Njigba for Super Bowl MVP twice — once right before the playoffs started at +2800, then again at +1500 heading into the NFC Championship Game. And I'm ready to triple down. Like most NFL awards, quarterback is the default for Super Bowl MVP. The award has gone to a QB 34 times (58%), including 14 of the last 19 Super Bowls (74%). If the Patriots win, Drake Maye is rightfully a heavy favorite to win MVP. But could Smith-Njigba steal it from Darnold in a Seahawks win? Remember, Smith-Njigba is typically responsible for almost half of Darnold's production. What's more impressive — 260 yards and two scores as a passer, or 8/130 and a TD as a receiver? Take a look at the receivers who won Super Bowl MVP over the last couple decades: 2005 Deion Branch: 11 receptions, 143 yards 2009 Santonio Holmes: 9 receptions, 141 yards, 1 TD 2019 Julian Edelman: 10 receptions, 141 yards 2022 Cooper Kupp: 8 receptions, 92 yards, 2 TDs These aren't guys putting up huge touchdown numbers. These are workhorse receivers seeing the ball all game, catching 8-to-10 passes and moving the chains drive after drive, piling up big yardage along the way. The average line for those four Super Bowl MVPs is 9.5 catches for 129 yards, even though they also combined for under one touchdown a game. Isn't that line an exact bullseye for a typical big Smith-Njigba game? It's also worth mentioning that no running back has won Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis last century, and that these defenses rank top four in fewest touchdowns and fantasy points allowed to RBs. This is a passing game, and no one gets a bigger piece of the passing pie than Smith-Njigba. He is consensus +550 to win Super Bowl MVP, implied 15.4%. We know MVP will go to someone from the winning team, and Seattle moneyline is priced around -225, implied 69.2%. If you do the math, that means Smith-Njigba would need to win MVP in about 22% of all Seahawks wins for that bet to have value. If you go through the Seahawks' schedule this season game-by-game, Smith-Njigba would've won MVP at least three times, maybe four or five. That means he would've been MVP in at least 19% of Seahawks wins this season, and maybe 25 or 31%. Combine that with the matchup advantages and there's still value on Smith-Njigba to win MVP — but we can get even better bang for our buck. At FanDuel, you can bet on him to record 100+ receiving yards and win Super Bowl MVP (a prepared parlay under Super Bowl Game Specials) at +850. We should not be getting an extra three bucks on our +550 MVP ticket for just 100 receiving yards — that's almost Smith-Njigba's receiving line! He's had 90+ yards in 14-of-19 games (74%), and if he goes under that line, the odds of him winning MVP are perilously low. If he did still steal MVP, maybe it's by finding the end zone multiple times — you're welcome to nibble JSN to score 2+ TDs and win MVP at +2500 (FanDuel) to cover yourself, just in case. Either way, it's time to invest in Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Bet JSN to catch at least seven or eight passes on Sunday night, and bet him to top 100 yards and win Super Bowl MVP at +850.

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46 points please

Defenders can and do win Super Bowl MVP — and a lot more often than you'd think! We've seen 10 defensive players win MVP. Two of them won it as co-MVPs, but even so, that's nine defensive MVPs in 59 Super Bowls or 15.3%. That's more than once every seven Super Bowls! In fact, would you believe more defenders have won Super Bowl MVP than receivers or running backs? That fact might encourage you to sprinkle on one of the game's defensive stars as an unlikely MVP pick. Again, it can be wise to just keep things simple. There are 11 defensive starters on each team and a plethora of other defenders that will also see the field in relief. We can bet any defensive player to win Super Bowl MVP at +1500 at theScore. That's 6.3% implied, giving us over 2.4x value on the historical odds of a defensive MVP. Of course, we're greedy and want the exacta winner too, so let's sprinkle three long-shot names. And it doesn't necessarily need to be the best defenders on the field. Seattle fans, do you recall the Super Bowl MVP of your last title? Not many remember LB Malcolm Smith, who won it in 2014. Dexter Jackson and Larry Brown are other relatively anonymous defenders who made a big play when it mattered most and stole MVP. Christian Gonzalez is a lock-down corner for New England, and Leonard Williams is a force up the middle for Seattle, but those guys don't necessarily make splash plays. We're looking for big, game-changing plays — sacks, turnovers, even a touchdown. Let's take a stab at three long-shot defensive MVPs. Start with New England's Marcus Jones (+15000 at BetRivers). He's the third corner but that makes him more of a target, and that means opportunity. Jones has four interceptions this season and returned two of them for scores. He's also an electric punt returner and has two scores that way. Next up is Seattle's DeMarcus Lawrence (+15000 at BetMGM), who had six regular season sacks and added one in each of Seattle's playoff games so far, along with three forced fumbles. He's got a juicy matchup against rookie LT Will Campbell, who has struggled mightily in these playoffs. Lawrence has four career touchdowns, including a league-leading two off fumbles this season. Last, let's add Ernest Jones (+20000 at theScore). Three of the four defensive MVPs this century have been linebackers, right in the middle of all the action, and Jones led Seattle in both interceptions (five) and combined tackles (30 more than anyone else). He plays nearly every snap and should rack up tackles and opportunities, and he'll be in great position to jump a rushed Drake Maye checkdown. Defense wins championships. And in the Super Bowl, defense turns profits for bettors too. Place your bets and wait for the big play.

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If SEA wins and everyone lands around median outcome, JSN wins (possibly even w/o TD if game is low-scoring enough). Prop-implied stat lines: JSN 7 rec, 93 yd, 1 TD Darnold 20-29, 228 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT JSN projects to account for ~40% of Darnold’s pass yardage.