Texans vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Predictions - January 18, 2026

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Similar to AJ Barner’s under (which finished with 0 yards), I talked about this angle on the Fantasy Flex Projections Pod earlier this week. With Stefon Diggs and Demario Douglas seeing an uptick in routes in the opening round of the playoffs, this mainly applies to Diggs, who I expected to see his playing time ramp up in the postseason. That increase can chip away at Boutte’s already modest target rate, which sits at just 12.3% on the season. Boutte operates as the primary downfield threat, so when he does get a target it’s usually a lower-percentage deep shot that either goes for a chunk gain or ends up in the end zone if he hauls it in. That’s what makes his 72% catch rate so wild, as it’s +21.2% above expected according to NextGenStats. A lot of that can be attributed to having the most accurate QB in the league in Drake Maye, so it’s fair to assume he’ll continue to outperform expectations to some extent. Still, I’m expecting some regression here, especially against a Houston secondary that ranks 2nd in pass DVOA and features two of the best corners in the league in Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter. There’s also the potential for significant snow in this game, which would make completing deep balls more difficult. Even without extreme weather, the Patriots could opt for a more conservative approach, leaning on the run game, Drake Maye’s legs, or shorter checkdowns rather than testing this secondary deep with Boutte. I’m projecting Boutte closer to 2.2 receptions with around a 63% chance to stay under 2.5. I’m not interested in fading his yardage, as I have his median around 33.5, which is right in line with the market. This is the angle I want, and I like that FanDuel is still offering the under at a reasonable price, with some books already pushing this into the -150 range.

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We have to start with the big injury news here — Nico Collins out for Houston and Christian Gonzalez in for New England. That's a pretty big swing off the top, especially since New England ranks dead last against WR1s on the season. The Texans have a bottom 10 set of weapons without Collins (and that's being kind), and Gonzalez is New England's most important defender. Even so, Houston, not New England, has been the significantly better team this season and I start with this game close to a pick'em. Houston's defense is its calling card and is coming off a dominant, masterful Monday night performance against the Steelers. The Texans force opponents into a three-and-out (or better) an outlier 39% of the time, effectively turning every opponent into the Raiders, the league's worst offense. The Texans defense begins with an elite pressure rate up front from Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, but the truth is that this is a relatively vanilla scheme. Unlike aggressive defenses like Seattle or Denver, Houston basically plays one or two personnel groupings and doesn't offer many surprises — they just know their guys are better than yours until you prove otherwise. That works against most teams, but it could offer a few areas for a great offense like New England to attack. Houston has an elite pressure rate, but the Patriots rank third in EPA per play under pressure. Drake Maye can escape with his legs — we'll get back to that — and hit the big pass down the field. New England also plays top-five most 21 personnel, making use of its dynamic duo of TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson, and Houston ranks just 13th in EPA per play against 21 personnel, a relative weakness. The Texans also rank just 14th in explosive plays allowed, and that's a real concern here. New England leads the league in explosive play rate at 14%, about one every seven plays, and that includes top five rushing and No. 1 passing at almost 20%. Aaron Rodgers wasn't able or willing to hold the ball long enough to create big plays against Houston, but Drake Maye was an MVP candidate for a reason and he can hurt these specific Houston weaknesses. New England's defense may also hold its own. The Patriots defense is a totally different animal over the back half of the season than it was early. Over the first nine games, New England ranked top five stopping the run by DVOA but bottom five against the pass. Over the final nine, the Patriots are league-average against the pass with a healthier secondary but tumbled to 30th against the run. That run defense got Milton Williams back last week, though, and Houston is not built to take advantage of a bad run defense, ranking just 30th by EPA on the season. The Texans also play a ton of 11 personnel where New England ranks top seven by EPA, and the Texans have been awful in the red zone this season and may not be able to take advantage of New England's league-worst red zone defense. Add in a real home-field advantage against a Texas team used to playing indoors and there are real reasons for concern on Houston's behalf — but I still lean Houston at the number. In the Divisional Round, it's typically a smart idea to fade the overpriced home team. Home favorites are 49-27 SU over the past couple decades but offer a 20% ROI on the road underdog moneyline, and underdogs are 21-32 SU against opponents this round that won over 75% of their regular season games, a 38% ROI on the moneyline. Books are juicing the numbers for these home favorites with gaudy records, and though New England has some areas to attack, I still feel good about backing the better team, especially in a low-total game that should be close all the way. This is my least confident game of the weekend, but I'll play Houston's moneyline at +150 (bet365). I'm also looking to play a few props. Drake Maye has played four games against a top-eight pass defense this season. He averages 228 yards and 1.3 passing TDs in those games. That's almost exactly what Houston's defense has allowed in six games against a top-10 passing attack: 229 yards and 1.3 TDs. The Texans may be able to keep Maye out of the end zone, but he can hurt them with his legs. Maye ranked 6th in scramble EPA per dropback this season and Houston ranked second to last. The Texans are getting so much pressure that Maye will be forced to move, and their defense is vulnerable to a big scramble with so many pass rushers up field. Maye has run for at least 25 yards in half his games and 40+ yards in a third of them, and he just ran 10 times for 66 yards in the win over the Chargers, both season-high numbers. I'll build a couple Maye SGPs. Start with under 1.5 passing TDs and 25 rushing yards at +118 (FanDuel), then place a second bet on under 1.5 pass TDs and 60+ rushing yards at +569 (FanDuel). New England may also be able to attack Houston with screens. The Patriots rank 6th in EPA per play on screens while the Texans defense also ranks 31st there, another area where those aggressive pass rushers are getting attacked. Rhamondre Stevenson has quietly become a weapon in the passing game for the Patriots, averaging 3.0 catches for 37.7 yards over his last six games. That includes 3+ catches in four of the six games and at least 22 yards in all of them, and Stevenson has racked up 61% of his season-long YAC in this stretch. You'd think TreVeyon Henderson would be the receiving back to target but he's down to just eight receiving snaps per game over his last five outings versus 22 for Stevenson. Bet over 19.5 receiving yards for Rhamondre Stevenson (-110, BetRivers). He's hit that in six straight games and can do it in one play once he gets rolling. We've seen the Texans hurt by explosive pass plays to RBs like Ashton Jenaty this year. Houston has allowed 36+ receiving yards to a RB seven times already, and Stevenson has games with 40, 55, and 75 receiving yards in this recent stretch. Let's take the Rhamondre escalator: 40+ receiving yards at +400, 50+ at +675 (both at bet365), and all the way to 70+ at +1900 (DraftKings) — all numbers he just cashed Sunday night against the Chargers!

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CJ Stroud over 206.5 pass yds (-110 at B365) Stroud hit 250 passing yards last week in a game they were leading for the majority of the plays (42 of 68 offensive plays run wiht a lead) despite some mishaps with fumbles, an interception, a few drops, and a missed throw to a wide open Nico Collins at the end of the first half that could have put him above 300 yards total. That's because he had a great matchup against Pittsburgh, and that's a similar spot he finds himself against New England here, now as an underdog. The Patriots rank 25th in defensive pass DVOA despite allowing the ninth fewest passing yards per game. That's because the Patriots have played, well, almost nobody. Only Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills rank inside the top half of pass offenses faced by DVOA (technically the Ravens are 16th, but they had Tyler Huntley for half the game), and Buffalo is a run-heavy team so Allen doesn't even rank ahead of Stroud in passing yards per game. New England doesn't generate pressure at a high rate, which is where Stroud struggles most, ranking 16th in pressure rate over expectation. They also play man coverage at an above average rate which helps Stroud, even with Collins out. Another reason the Patriots have allowed so few passing yards against is because they control time of possession, especially in the first half, which is a lot easier to do against slow paced teams with bad passing offenses. Patriots opponents have averaged the second-longest seconds per snap in the first half, but Houston plays at a much faster first-half pace, a full two seconds per play faster than the average Patriots opponent. In fact, the Texans have run the most first-half plays per game in the league. I like Stroud to clear 206.5 against a team ranked 25th in pass defense efficiency, especially one that plays to his strengths and eliminates his weaknesses as a QB.

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#SundaySixPack NE 3.8 YPC, 83 YOG allowed with Milton Williams active, only 2 RBs cleared 50 with high of 58 in those 13g.

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