Jaguars vs. Texans Odds & Betting Predictions - September 29, 2024

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Stuckey 3

DK

Offensive explosion from these two

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice The Jacksonville Jaguars are struggling offensively this season, ranking 30th in the NFL with a meager 13.3 points per game. Trevor Lawrence, in particular, has found it tough to get going, completing just 52.8% of his passes and throwing for only 560 yards in three games. With only two touchdowns, one interception, and a concerning 11 sacks, Lawrence is under significant pressure, which has hampered Jacksonville’s ability to move the ball downfield effectively. The offensive line hasn’t provided much protection, and their inability to sustain drives has been evident in the lack of consistency. Jacksonville’s offensive woes are likely to continue as they face a Texans defense that has shown grit, even though they gave up 34 points in their last game against Minnesota. Houston's defensive front has the potential to add to Lawrence’s troubles, especially with the Jags’ struggles in pass protection. Despite starting the season 2-1, Houston’s offense has struggled to establish a rhythm, particularly in the run game, where they managed only 38 rushing yards against the Vikings. The Texans' passing game, led by rookie quarterback CJ Stroud, has been up and down, with two interceptions and penalties (88 yards) hampering their ability to sustain drives. Houston’s reliance on a slow, methodical offensive style, paired with their inefficiency on third downs (4-of-14 against the Vikings), suggests this will be a low-scoring affair. Adding to the evidence for the under, both teams have played in multiple games that hit below the projected total. The Jaguars' last two games saw totals of 37 and 31 points respectively, while the Texans have similarly seen low totals, including a 20-17 and 18-13 scoreline in their recent contests. Jacksonville has also historically gone under the total when playing in Houston, with four of their last five matchups as road underdogs falling below the line. Furthermore, five of the last six Sunday games at NRG Stadium have also gone under, showing a consistent trend in this venue. Both teams’ recent performances highlight their offensive struggles, and neither squad is equipped to put up big numbers, especially considering their inconsistencies in converting on third downs and moving the chains. With both offenses facing stout defensive fronts and given the historical under trends in this matchup, this game should stay below the total once again.

Nico Collins over 74.5 Receiving Yards Nico Collins has been cooking every single week and this week gets his best matchup of the season vs the Jaguars. Through 3 weeks, Nico has racked up 117, 126 and 86 yards and his connection with 2nd year QB CJ Stroud continues to strengthen. Even with the addition of Stephon Diggs in the offseason, Stroud has targeted Collins an average of 9.3 times per game with 10 targets in back to back games. Collins is also drawing 25.9% of the target share and 40% of the targets in the redzone. Stroud clearly trusts Collins and the duo have been terrorizing secondaries in the early season. This week the Texans will host the Jaguars, who we all just saw get torched on MNF by the Bills. This Jaguars team is struggling on both sides of the ball and I expect that to continue this week vs the abundance of Texans weapons. The Jaguars are ranked 30th in passing yards allowed and run man to man at one of the highest rates in the NFL this season. This sets up Collins as he TORCHES man coverage. Nico was the 2nd best WR vs Man coverage last season, with only only Tyreek Hill being better. He was also 4th in YAC which is a big key in this matchup. On MNF we saw the Bills receivers catch short to intermediate routes and pick up monster gains after the catch. One of the most dangerous YAC/man coverage receivers vs one of the worst YAC/man coverage defenses? Sign me up!

Teams that are +4 or higher after losing by 35+ points the week before are 73% ATS (50-19-2)

Jags secondary is banged up - their best cover corner, Tyson Campbell, is on IR. They’re allowing 179 WR rec yards per game (6th most), and are getting torched by the deep ball - 3rd worst DVOA, per FTN Fantasy. Nico leads the Texans with a 12.9 aDOT, and is their best deep threat. Plus, the Jags run man coverage at the league’s highest rate, and that’s where Nicole excels. Last season, he was targeted on 34% of his routes vs man coverage, averaging 4.33 yards per route run (lead the NFL). He hasn’t seen much man coverage yet this season, but his numbers are similar (37% target%, 4.42 yards per route run).

Sadly has to be done

Stroud is over this line in 2/3 this season, and 9/15 last season (including both vs JAX). Jaguars employ man coverage at the league’s highest rate, which typically leads to more scrambles. Stripping out designed runs - Allen had 33 scramble yards, Watson 8, and Tua 11. I have a fair line on this closer to 11.5.

#Tailing @wheatonbrando & @nick_giffen

On this with @wheatonbrando from TAN roundtable & #LuckRankings

Jags D plays most man coverage in league. Allen shredded cuz he’s elite vs man, but Stroud elite vs zone and v poor vs man. Trends love Jags here, and @nick_giffen says on TAN roundtable pod this is a Luck Rankings spot too so let’s do this.

Til the wheels come off