Propbetguy

Cleared in both games this series - he benefits from the added coverage Phoenix is throwing at Ant. I also see Nurkic’s minutes getting cut down in this one, which would also be a massive plus

2-WAY PARLAY+101

Buying low on Porzingis - he was awful in Game 2, but he missed some marketable shots. Spoelstra’s defense is predicated on taking away Tatum right now - I see Porzingis as a beneficiary in Game 3. Besides game 2, he’s scored 18, 25, 19, 17 vs the Heat - and he’s 24/L25 at 15+ points with at least 28 minutes played. Allen with 16, 16 and 15 so far this series - Magic don’t have a good matchup for him down low right now. Expecting a closer game too - Allen is 23/L24 on this line with just 26+ mins.

J.Allen o11.5 Pts-360

CLE

ORL

04/27 5:00 PM

K.Porzingis o14.5 Pts-175

BOS

MIA

04/27 10:00 PM

K.Leonard u25.5 Pts+Ast-115

LAC

101

DAL

FINAL 4/27

Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-playoffs-player-props-picks-kawhi-leonard-obi-toppin-friday-april-26?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=PropBetGuy

R.Westbrook o15.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-122

LAC

101

DAL

1.22u

FINAL 4/27

Russ is 33/48 on this line when playing between 15-26 minutes - he played 23 and 24 in the first two games. 5/5 on this line vs DAL (all between 20-25 mins). And qualitatively, I trust a guy like Russ to perform in the playoffs. Mavs going with more Kleber minutes also really hurts their rim protection.

127

L.Gil u15.5 Outs-145

NYY

MIL

FINAL - 11 4/27

He burned me last game, but I’m going back to the well here… The Brewers see a lot of pitches, and chase at the second lowest rate in baseball. Gil has the highest pitches per PA (4.46), and is 124/131 in strike rate. Plus the Brewers have the 4th best wRC+ (121) and third best OPS (.785) vs righties this season.

Z.Gallen u7.5 Ks-140

ARI

SEA

FINAL 4/27

Tweeted earlier: Gallen is under in 4/5 this season, and he only had a 22% K% on the road last year (under in 14/18 road starts). SEA is K prone, but their bats have also heated up of late. Over the L2 weeks, they’re at a 128 wRC+ vs righties (leads MLB), and a 26% K%. But they are driving pitch counts up (12.5% walk rate is also the highest). Even giving Gallen a generous 29% K%, I’d have him at about 6.9 Ks.

Pending

Corbin Burnes (BAL) to record a win-115

1.15u

Burnes has been great - 2.76 ERA and xERA, 3.04 xFIP, 118 stuff+, 111 pitching+. Orioles are 5-0 in his starts. Coming off an off day, bullpen is in good shape. And they’ve been mashing at home vs righties: 129 wRC+ and .781 OPS. Oakland is 0-5 in Stripling’s starts (5.34 ERA). Opponents hitting .333 and a .959 OPS the first time through vs him. Orioles are averaging 3.25 F5 runs at home this season - I expect them to get out to a nice lead. Huge advantage for the Orioles in each facet of this one. I’d play to -130.

2-WAY PARLAY+106

Game 1 (+124): 19/8 Game 2 (+114): 22/9 Game 3 (+116): 20/10 We lose a few cents, but the value is there. He’s hit this with Jokic still putting up numbers, Murray with 21+ FGA in all three, and even in a massive AG game. He’s third at best on the scouting report (might be 4th after last game), and the Lakers don’t have an answer for him.

M.Porter o14.5 Pts-240

DEN

LAL

04/28 12:30 AM

M.Porter o6.5 Rebs-174

04/28 12:30 AM

1.15u

04/28 1:40 AM

He’s only under in 2/5, but his overs all came against high K teams. ARI has the third lowest K% vs righties (18.9%), and have only been marginally worse in away games (19.3%). They also have the fourth lowest CSW%, which bodes well against Kirby, who doesn’t miss many bats to begin with (26th percentile whiff rate this year - was 27th last year).

Futures

Past Performance
Yesterday	1-4-0	20%	-3.18u
Last 7 Days	23-24-1	48%	-2.88u
Last 30 Days	89-78-6	51%	5.89u
All Time	2060-1848-36	52%	53.73u

Top Leagues
NFL	344-266-1	56%	54.49u
NCAAB	336-245-4	57%	51.64u
NCAAF	43-37-1	53%	0.57u
MLB	616-608-12	50%	-17.45u
NBA	721-691-18	50%	-34.53u

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